ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Guardian report on the rush to evacuate Kyiv:

She had bought tickets for six different trains, but soon realised they counted for nothing. Instead, there was a boarding algorithm: first mothers with children, then women, then old people. Others were kept away by the police and soldiers standing guard.

Quickly, the train was crammed full. Families had to make split-second decisions, as mothers and children were allowed to board but grandparents told to wait behind.

This was the sixth day of Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, and by now fear had taken over. In the first days, there was a sense of shock and disbelief. Then came pride and inspiration, at the surprisingly resilient Ukrainian response and the unity of Ukrainian society.

Whoops, wrong link above. It's:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/it-might-be-the-last-chance-to-get-out-citizens-flee-kyiv-as-assault-intensifies

"Families had to make split-second decisions, as mothers and children were allowed to board but grandparents told to wait behind."

This sounds so horrific.

Grozny got mentioned up thread… and it’s possible after months/years of flighting some Ukraine cities could find themselves in a similar state; one big difference (outside of the size and fighting abilities of Ukraine vs Chechnya) is the west and the media care a hell of a lot more about Ukraine.
The world, and possibly even the Russian people themselves, are going to meet similar actions with much more outrage.

We were also much less anti-Russian at the time of Chechnya, and of course you didn't have social media.

Yes. True.

Chechnya also had the images of bearded, mujahadeen type so it was easy for the west to dismiss it as yet another vaguely middle eastern/Caucus conflict, with origins in the 1300s or something. It just seemed very distant, and as far as I recall they didn't have a charismatic Zelensky guy to trumpet the cause.

Not implying that any of that is true, just kinda remembering the Western reaction or lack thereof

I was like 19-20 during the second Chechen War. I was sort of a Harpers/Nation-reading lib to left guy and I think I had some vague idea of the conflict from that. If you didn't read publications like that or at least voraciously consume the WaPo or NYTimes back then, you'd probably barely know it was going on as an American. I have stronger memories of the movie theater hostage crisis as it came during the "war on terror" and having this vague feeling at the time of "huh, it does seem sort of fucked up that Russia is using the 'war on terror' as cover to do fucked up things to Chechnya." But we saw Russia as sort of an uneasy ally in that "war on terror" at the time, iirc.

It's shocking to see how different the tone of the coverage was of the Russian assault on Grozny in the NY Times for example. I found this article from 1/2/2000. It's all from the perspective of the Russian soldiers. How they're worried about getting shot at while busy leveling the city with heavy artillery. This is almost beyond parody:

"When he is asked about the fighting in Grozny, Konstantin Kukhlovets shows the red splotch on his index finger. The 24-year-old lieutenant said he was firing his machine gun so furiously that he was scalded by the heat of the gun barrel."

"Pvt. Sergei Chigayev, a 19-year-old with rosy cheeks, chimed in that he was afraid that he would soon end up in Grozny. 'Even going to a small village to look for firewood is scary,' he said. 'You can see from the way the villagers stare at us that they really don't want us here. But the idea of going to Grozny is really frightening. We have had no special training for what we have do there.'"

There is zero mention of civilian casualties or the perspective of the Chechen defenders. The fact that their strategy is to "pound the city" with warplanes and artillery is casually mentioned in passing.

Full article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2000/01/02/world/chechnya-s-capital-becomes-a-deadly-zone-for-russians.html

I mean... it was war on Muslims. Even before 9/11 we'd had Desert Storm, the '94 WTC bombing, various cruise missile attacks, the USS Cole. Wouldn't expect any other kind of coverage.

(see also: attitude toward Palestinians and Ukrainians right in this moment)

Sadly that seems accurate. Also I think we were still kind of in this honeymoon phase with the new democratic Russia and the novelty of taking their side in some little kerfuffle in the Caucasus that no one in the US could find on a map anyway was probably too great to resist.

I mean... it was war on Muslims.

heavily otm, as far as american media coverage goes. if it were christians, it would've been top news

that's pretty much what i was hinting at, but didn't want to get overly sidetracked with everything there was to unpack there.

Can't underestimate the white European Christian aspect of Western support for Ukraine, but it's nonetheless a pretty massive turnaround. Prior to the invasion, Ukraine was thought of - if it was thought of at all - as some impoverished USSR remnant with a joke president and phenomenal corruption.

Hearing Zelensky's translator breaking up today was a serious hankie moment for me today

Good thread, I thought

Some thoughts on the scenes we're seeing on social media of armed Russians, confronted by unarmed, protesting Ukrainians, being pushed back. Again, these are just insights from someone watching from afar, who just happens to know Ukrainians and Russians and Soviet mythology 1/

— Zoya Sheftalovich (@zoyashef) March 1, 2022

yes, thank you

That was really good, thanks. Sad.

A Russian soldier - turn on CC for english subtitles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLFjIb4RzlU

It's so sick to take civilians, some Ukrainians, many school teachers, and send them to die.
As above, CC for english subtitles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2XM9bR8dzo

O Vlad, is this real and/or not real, more of your switcheroo---I think it might as well be real, just showing it, why not, everything in the Uke is a target:
Tadeusz Giczan 🇺🇦@TadeuszGiczan
At today's security council meeting, Lukashenko showed what looks like an actual invasion map. It shows Ukraine military facilities destroyed by missiles from Belarus, attacks, directions (everything agrees except Odessa-Transnistria). Also, Ukraine is divided into 4 sectors.

I wrote in my previous long thread that Putin miscalculated. As a result of that, the propaganda arm of the Russian state has been feeding Russians the wrong messaging. They have been telling Russians they are the defenders of Ukrainians.

i’m not so sure about this. from what i can tell, the current propaganda is:
- “we need to protect russians from ukrainian nazis and bandits”
- “whatever civilian damage you’re seeing is caused by ukrainians themselves”

It's so sick to take civilians, some Ukrainians, many school teachers, and send them to die.
As above, CC for english subtitles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2XM9bR8dzo

― ian, Tuesday, March 1, 2022 8:51 PM (thirty-six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I cried a bit at this. I can barely make sense of what I’m seeing. These guys are not killers, not even soldiers. They seem gentle. They’re teachers. What sense would it make for Russia to round these guys up and send them to war without even telling them what’s going on? How does that even serve Russia’s aims? Did they just want cannon fodder?

yes. it’s how russia operates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_repressions_against_former_prisoners_of_war

That video was utterly heartbreaking. So many ordinary people who just want to live their lives, getting needlessly chewed to bits because some aberrant dick-swinging fuck is having a brain event.

that video showing the caps pulled over their faces and the interviewer raising them so they can speak and then pulling them down again is kind of gross though

It’s uncomfortable but they are still captured enemy soldiers and you can’t just let them have a good long look around and study everything.

Don’t forget also that their captors were probably just in a firefight with them, and some of their own fellow soldiers may be dead along with the Russian soldiers alluded to. It’s about as respectful and kind as you can expect under the circumstances.

Paywalled out of the rest, but this WSJ post makes basic point about Russians not only ones having supply line problems: U.S. efforts to provide Ukraine weapons to battle the Russian invasion are complicated by limited supply lines, a potentially small window to save Kyiv from collapse and a Cold War legacy that made Western small arms ammunition incompatible with those produced in the Eastern Bloc.

While acknowledging the challenges moving weapons into Ukraine amid escalating Russian attacks, the Pentagon believes U.S. and Western assistance is proving effective. “We believe it is getting into the right hands, that they are actively using these systems,” a senior defense official said Tuesday.

Oh, there's also an audio link on there for whole thing, apparently, or at least 2 minutes; worth.https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-rushes-arms-to-ukraine-as-russian-forces-escalate-attacks-11646160746

this is fucked up https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/kremlin-planning-to-declare-ex-president-yanukovych-as-new-head-of-ukraine-374471

He's tan, rested, and ready

definitely not a drug-addled nazi

not sure how to fact check this but apparently russian police have arrested... children?

When I saw this yesterday I refused to believe it was real. But now confirmed by (Nobel Prize-winning) @novaya_gazeta: primary school children arrested by police in Moscow for laying flowers at Ukrainian embassy holding signs saying “No To War”. https://t.co/1Uqby4mhik

— Gabriel Gatehouse (@ggatehouse) March 2, 2022

It’s real - I don’t think they were ‘arrested’ as such but they were held overnight with their parents who had taken them to protest, per the Novaya Gazeta tweet.

Possibly not overnight, there is a second tweet saying they were released when a lawyer came to pick them up.

Throw the pop-up book at them, if you can't do the time don't do the crime etc.

If you can't tell the time, don't do the crime.

Russian delegation came to the city of Konotop to negotiate a surrender, effectively said that the city would be destroyed in the fighting otherwise. pic.twitter.com/SpRtSeju2N

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 2, 2022

Literally coming to negotiate with two grenades in his hands, and the negotiation is "give up or we will destroy your city."

Useful thread

I have spent some time last night reading Russian nationalist accounts (the well versed "intellectual" ones, not normie Putin fans), and here is a quick summary of what they think:

— Yuriy Akopov (@y_akopov) March 2, 2022

Separately, quite a breakdown here

I work in the aviation sector, and I can tell you that for all intents and purposes Russian aviation has - at best - about three weeks before it’s show over.

One aspect is the fact that airspace available to Russian aircraft is very, very limited now. However, there is more:

— Jan Nedvidek (@janedvidek) March 1, 2022

If you can't tell the time, don't do the crime.

LOL OTM

Reminds me of one of those old Russian/Soviet prisoner jokes I can’t type in at the moment.

Useful thread

I have spent some time last night reading Russian nationalist accounts (the well versed "intellectual" ones, not normie Putin fans), and here is a quick summary of what they think:
— Yuriy Akopov (@y_akopov) March 2, 2022
― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 March 2022 13:42 (forty-two minutes ago) link

Dark and sobering, though I don't necessarily think they are all right.

Thread author agrees with you. The question then becomes what they adjust or fall back on.

Definitely has an air of "we will win because every single thing is going to go exactly according to plan." Which is never how things go.

Looking at a bunch of the pro-Putin bloggers, Twitter accounts, etc, it’s incredibly obvious how much of an overlap there is between the language being used and the language used routinely by apologists for other outrages internationally.

This is a police action, not a war
The focus is on extremists and the leadership, not the country as a whole
Only military targets are being hit
Militants are hiding weapons in civilian infrastructure, so they’re to blame when civilians are killed
Militants are actively forcing civilians to stay in place so they’re hit

…and so on.

Destroying the national identity of the citizens of a conquered country in a few weeks--that usually works, huh?