ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

I've been cheered up by such statements, but the truth is: How do we know what Russia expected?

I'm afraid that most of the people who say these things have no idea what Russia expected.

Pre-scheduled propaganda articles have been published in Russian papers etc. describing exactly what they hoped would happen, as if it had happened.

Holy shit at this one

#BREAKING: Massive explosion reported over Kharkiv, Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/OfC4gzhbMA

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) March 1, 2022

What the fuck.

christ

I think that's what happens when they hit an ammo dump.

Diplomats leaving as Lavrov/Ribbentrop holding his speech. #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/Q0osIfG2fX

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 1, 2022

Ukrainian MP Oleksi Goncharenko responds to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s statement that Russia is willing to begin negotiations when Ukraine “restores democratic order.” #FuckYouLavrov #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/qcNsSkiIbQ

— ꇙ꓄꒤🌻 (@rewilde_) February 27, 2022

xpost Remember what the Russians did to Grozny in the Second Chechnya war... pretty much flattened it

That could well be what they plan to do here

I don't think they will move to Grozny levels this quickly, it leaves them no cards to play.

...perhaps they have no other cards?

I heard a radio program last weekend about Putin's suspected (or likely) involvement in the Sept 1999 Moscow Apartment bombings... pretty scary stuff, hundreds of innocent Russians died to justify an invasion of Chechnya:

According to Satter, all four bombings that occurred had a similar "signature" which indicated that the explosives had been carefully prepared, a mark of skilled specialists. There is also no explanation as to how the terrorists were able to obtain tons of hexogen explosive and transport it to various locations in Russia; hexogen is produced in one plant in Perm Oblast for which the central FSB is responsible for the security...

According to the report, "no credible evidence has been presented by the Russian authorities linking Chechen terrorists, or anyone else, to the Moscow bombings."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings#Russian_government_involvement_theory

...perhaps they have no other cards?

― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, March 1, 2022 1:34 PM (seventeen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I mean honestly I don't fucking know any better than anyone, I just would think maybe they'd escalate gradually rather than flooring it, hoping to scare Ukraine into capitulating rather than just immediately flattening it.

Yeah, I would think the negotiation sessions could basically be Russian saying what they will do next if there isn't capitulation.

If there's another bitter irony here it's that Kharkiv is, I gather, a predominantly Russian city.

Xposts

Yeah the 1999 Moscow bombings are some crazy stuff. The source of Putin’s rise to power. And of course various people investigating it have been killed, Litvinenko among them.

I've gotten used to thinking of Putin as Cable TV villian, Playing The Long Game, but seems like time is of the essence here, with a long campaign in the east too reminiscent of "Russia's Vietnam, " AKA Afghanistan---this, with economic pressure from the West on oligarchs, like those two I linked upthread, already denouncing the invasion, also xpost bank runs by "ordinary Russians," may make him quickly escalate in some fashion(s).

Don't know if this has been verified:https://www.npr.org/2022/02/28/1083616770/russia-is-using-controversial-cluster-munitions-in-ukraine-humanitarian-groups-s
or this: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-ambassador-us-says-russia-used-vacuum-bomb-monday-2022-02-28/

Could see him going chemical to some extent, also use of gas; bacteriological might be harder to control--? Although radiation from Chernobyl has reportedly increased since they took that, so messiness might not be big consideration 'til campaign is over?

Soviets definitely used chemical weapons in Afghanistan, I wouldn't put it past him at all

(PS: GOP mainly matters here, not too much I hope, but like they writhed around and fucked with Clinton's decisions re Serbo-Croatian War, Obama's re Egypt and Libya, not to blame then entirely for mistakes of those Administrations, but there were effects. Like they may well call for Biden to get more involved militarily, scream if he does.)

(Also, even with US and other NATO countries about to release what's feasible from their Strategic Oil Reserves, looks like Europe will need Russian resources again pretty soon, although might be stopgaps; still, a general recession could put more economic pressure on West---GOP: DO SOMETHING DO SOMETHING OLD WEAK MAN)

blah blah leading from behind

Indeed--infuriating reminder yet again that this is no longer The American Century, not that they handled that very well either.
he attack on the TV tower in Kyiv, which killed five people and wounded five others, was close to the memorial site that commemorates the victims of Babyn Yar, the ravine where Nazi soldiers massacred up to 150,000 people during the second world war – including more than 30,000 Jews - Zelenskiy tweeted: “What is the point of saying ‘never again’ for 80 years, if the world stays silent when a bomb drops on the same site of Babyn Yar? At least five killed. History repeating…”
,,,the Ukrainian president said at least 16 children had been killed around Ukraine on Monday and mocked Russia’s claim that it was going after only military targets.

“Where are these children, what kind of military factories do they work at? What tanks are they going at, launching cruise missiles?” He reiterated his country’s wish to join the EU, saying Ukraine “has a desire to see our children alive – I think it is a fair one. We are fighting for survival. We are fighting to be equal members of Europe. We are exactly the same as you are.” Which membership would be seized on as yet more provocation---although at this point, what difference could it make? A bargaining chip? Looks like too late.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/fears-of-bloody-fight-for-kyiv-as-huge-russian-army-convoy-gathers-on-outskirts

But if he does start fucking with NATO territory---? Better to go into pre-emptive mode against him? Such as? No-win scenarios all around, seems like (vs. Putin).

Hard to see Russia immediately going into a NATO country when it's having trouble with supply lines to an area just across its own border.

Yeah, that seems right for now! Hope it continues.
xp"State terrorism," he called it---yeah, pretty common: targeting civilians to demoralize, like Allies and Axis in The Good War.

before this war, i didn't think (to the extent i thought about it, which was not much) that ukraine had a chance to enter the EU anytime soon. mainly because of fears that russia would do...something like this

now it seems more likely than it ever has? not saying that means >50% or anything like that, just that now there's a plausible scenario* where ukraine enters the EU where it seemed like 0% before

*scenario assumes that ukraine is not completely destroyed

Yep. And seems like he might be thinking that if he hangs in there a few more months, past election time in several countries, or even if there's a "ceasefire" of sorts, after so much carnage, and basically on his terms, that enough present NATO leaders will be discredited and replaced by rightists who may talk a big game but basically be amenable enough to his POV, as a fair number of them already are, except for being mostly isolationists, obsessed w internal politics, otherwise clueless, so fine Vlad, let's make a a deal please.

Guardian report on the rush to evacuate Kyiv:

She had bought tickets for six different trains, but soon realised they counted for nothing. Instead, there was a boarding algorithm: first mothers with children, then women, then old people. Others were kept away by the police and soldiers standing guard.

Quickly, the train was crammed full. Families had to make split-second decisions, as mothers and children were allowed to board but grandparents told to wait behind.

This was the sixth day of Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, and by now fear had taken over. In the first days, there was a sense of shock and disbelief. Then came pride and inspiration, at the surprisingly resilient Ukrainian response and the unity of Ukrainian society.

Whoops, wrong link above. It's:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/it-might-be-the-last-chance-to-get-out-citizens-flee-kyiv-as-assault-intensifies

"Families had to make split-second decisions, as mothers and children were allowed to board but grandparents told to wait behind."

This sounds so horrific.

Grozny got mentioned up thread… and it’s possible after months/years of flighting some Ukraine cities could find themselves in a similar state; one big difference (outside of the size and fighting abilities of Ukraine vs Chechnya) is the west and the media care a hell of a lot more about Ukraine.
The world, and possibly even the Russian people themselves, are going to meet similar actions with much more outrage.

We were also much less anti-Russian at the time of Chechnya, and of course you didn't have social media.

Yes. True.

Chechnya also had the images of bearded, mujahadeen type so it was easy for the west to dismiss it as yet another vaguely middle eastern/Caucus conflict, with origins in the 1300s or something. It just seemed very distant, and as far as I recall they didn't have a charismatic Zelensky guy to trumpet the cause.

Not implying that any of that is true, just kinda remembering the Western reaction or lack thereof

I was like 19-20 during the second Chechen War. I was sort of a Harpers/Nation-reading lib to left guy and I think I had some vague idea of the conflict from that. If you didn't read publications like that or at least voraciously consume the WaPo or NYTimes back then, you'd probably barely know it was going on as an American. I have stronger memories of the movie theater hostage crisis as it came during the "war on terror" and having this vague feeling at the time of "huh, it does seem sort of fucked up that Russia is using the 'war on terror' as cover to do fucked up things to Chechnya." But we saw Russia as sort of an uneasy ally in that "war on terror" at the time, iirc.

It's shocking to see how different the tone of the coverage was of the Russian assault on Grozny in the NY Times for example. I found this article from 1/2/2000. It's all from the perspective of the Russian soldiers. How they're worried about getting shot at while busy leveling the city with heavy artillery. This is almost beyond parody:

"When he is asked about the fighting in Grozny, Konstantin Kukhlovets shows the red splotch on his index finger. The 24-year-old lieutenant said he was firing his machine gun so furiously that he was scalded by the heat of the gun barrel."

"Pvt. Sergei Chigayev, a 19-year-old with rosy cheeks, chimed in that he was afraid that he would soon end up in Grozny. 'Even going to a small village to look for firewood is scary,' he said. 'You can see from the way the villagers stare at us that they really don't want us here. But the idea of going to Grozny is really frightening. We have had no special training for what we have do there.'"

There is zero mention of civilian casualties or the perspective of the Chechen defenders. The fact that their strategy is to "pound the city" with warplanes and artillery is casually mentioned in passing.

Full article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2000/01/02/world/chechnya-s-capital-becomes-a-deadly-zone-for-russians.html

I mean... it was war on Muslims. Even before 9/11 we'd had Desert Storm, the '94 WTC bombing, various cruise missile attacks, the USS Cole. Wouldn't expect any other kind of coverage.

(see also: attitude toward Palestinians and Ukrainians right in this moment)

Sadly that seems accurate. Also I think we were still kind of in this honeymoon phase with the new democratic Russia and the novelty of taking their side in some little kerfuffle in the Caucasus that no one in the US could find on a map anyway was probably too great to resist.

I mean... it was war on Muslims.

heavily otm, as far as american media coverage goes. if it were christians, it would've been top news

that's pretty much what i was hinting at, but didn't want to get overly sidetracked with everything there was to unpack there.

Can't underestimate the white European Christian aspect of Western support for Ukraine, but it's nonetheless a pretty massive turnaround. Prior to the invasion, Ukraine was thought of - if it was thought of at all - as some impoverished USSR remnant with a joke president and phenomenal corruption.

Hearing Zelensky's translator breaking up today was a serious hankie moment for me today

Good thread, I thought

Some thoughts on the scenes we're seeing on social media of armed Russians, confronted by unarmed, protesting Ukrainians, being pushed back. Again, these are just insights from someone watching from afar, who just happens to know Ukrainians and Russians and Soviet mythology 1/

— Zoya Sheftalovich (@zoyashef) March 1, 2022

yes, thank you

That was really good, thanks. Sad.

A Russian soldier - turn on CC for english subtitles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLFjIb4RzlU

It's so sick to take civilians, some Ukrainians, many school teachers, and send them to die.
As above, CC for english subtitles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2XM9bR8dzo

O Vlad, is this real and/or not real, more of your switcheroo---I think it might as well be real, just showing it, why not, everything in the Uke is a target:
Tadeusz Giczan 🇺🇦@TadeuszGiczan
At today's security council meeting, Lukashenko showed what looks like an actual invasion map. It shows Ukraine military facilities destroyed by missiles from Belarus, attacks, directions (everything agrees except Odessa-Transnistria). Also, Ukraine is divided into 4 sectors.

I wrote in my previous long thread that Putin miscalculated. As a result of that, the propaganda arm of the Russian state has been feeding Russians the wrong messaging. They have been telling Russians they are the defenders of Ukrainians.

i’m not so sure about this. from what i can tell, the current propaganda is:
- “we need to protect russians from ukrainian nazis and bandits”
- “whatever civilian damage you’re seeing is caused by ukrainians themselves”

It's so sick to take civilians, some Ukrainians, many school teachers, and send them to die.
As above, CC for english subtitles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2XM9bR8dzo

― ian, Tuesday, March 1, 2022 8:51 PM (thirty-six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I cried a bit at this. I can barely make sense of what I’m seeing. These guys are not killers, not even soldiers. They seem gentle. They’re teachers. What sense would it make for Russia to round these guys up and send them to war without even telling them what’s going on? How does that even serve Russia’s aims? Did they just want cannon fodder?