ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Meanwhile, a new Kofman thought

Looking at the Russian operation so far, they're having tremendous problems with logistics and communications. The whole effort seems shambolic. Some structural, some probably more specific to this operation, but will be doing a separate thread on those problems later.

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 1, 2022

Ngl, I don't believe a word that Hill or anyone like her says.

a proposal to rename the street in Copenhagen where the Russian embassy is located. Danish politicians wish to rename the street from Kristiania Street to Ukraine Street.

what's tone deaf? in the mid-eighties glasgow renamed st. george's place - where the south african embassy had offices - nelson mandela place

Assuming the Russian embassy's reaction is what's being described as tone deaf, tho I'd say they know exactly what tone they're striking.

ah ok

Ngl, I don't believe a word that Hill or anyone like her says.

― we need outrage! we need dicks!! (the table is the table), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 14:12 (thirty minutes ago) link

Why? I know nothing about her so genuinely wondering.

She seems highly capable of making wry judgments about other people's fuckups, but I don't have enough expertise to understand whether her dour predictions are reasonable and made in good faith. I tend to reflexively distrust "we wouldn't be in this mess if you'd listened to me" and "here's what'll happen" type commentators but that'd just my baggage. She did work for Trump.

Just had a chance to ask a question to @BorisJohnson https://t.co/4ee6eXJj6g

— Daria Kaleniuk (@dkaleniuk) March 1, 2022

I understand being skeptical of anyone who’s spent a career in the foreign policy establishment, we all know what kinds of bullshit they’ve sold us over the years. But at the same time, there is some value in just the plain old subject matter expertise of people who have spent years and years studying certain issues in places in people. I certainly wouldn’t put any ideas I have about what the fuck is going on in Ukraine up against Fiona Hill’s.

AND places AND people I mean

Mr Telecom (and anyone else interested in Russian Apocalyptic thinking), have you read Timothy Snyder's "Road to Unfreedom"?

what's tone deaf?

Should have been clearer: the Russian apparent idea that this would bother Norway at all. Could just be a bit of trolling, obv.

regardless of how Putin & the Russian military thought things were gonna go or what sanctions they'd have to deal with can we at least conclude that the propaganda war is going very badly for them? like I live in a country that tried to "both sides" Nazi rallies and permanently separating kids from their parents, and even here you have an overwhelming majority rejecting the Trump/Tucker/Ingraham lines. Russia's allies aren't condoning this, it looks like the vast majority of their citizens disagree with it, and every country on Earth seems to be telling them to go fuck themselves if they need anything. don't Putin's goals here depend on him being remaining popular in Russia at least, just as he was virtually every other time he tried this?

I suspect wishcasting in a lot of this stuff, but still

BREAKING: U.S. believes Russia has committed more than 80 percent of pre-staged troops into Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official.

Russia has not been able to advance on Kyiv due to fuel & sustainment problems. "Not only are they running out of gas, they're running out of food"

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 1, 2022

BREAKING-U.S. assesses that morale is flagging in some Russian units, and that some Russian units have surrendered without a fight in Ukraine, a senior US defense official says

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 1, 2022

It's that 80 percent claim that kinda sticks with me -- building up that amount of forces and then having to commit the vast majority of it within not even quite a week without obvious controlling success seems less than ideal.

it's tough to balance that with the images of a forty-mile long convoy approaching/circling kyiv

Yes. I feel very pessimistic now.

I have been thinking about the last week and the number of times I have read: "One thing we can say is that this is not going as Russia expected".

I've been cheered up by such statements, but the truth is: How do we know what Russia expected?

I'm afraid that most of the people who say these things have no idea what Russia expected.

IDK the technical meaning of "committed into" - not sure that actually means 80% of troops are currently fighting, and I doubt it. Also worth reading the rest of Detsch's tweets for context, paints a less optimistic picture.

yeah. he retweeted another journalist saying "Two things that can both be true: 1) The Ukrainians are putting up a hell of a fight and the Russians are more disorganized and poorly supplied than expected 2) Russia still have overwhelming force and capabilities, and there's no off-ramp for Putin." pretty much where i'm at as well

I've been cheered up by such statements, but the truth is: How do we know what Russia expected?

I'm afraid that most of the people who say these things have no idea what Russia expected.

Pre-scheduled propaganda articles have been published in Russian papers etc. describing exactly what they hoped would happen, as if it had happened.

Holy shit at this one

#BREAKING: Massive explosion reported over Kharkiv, Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/OfC4gzhbMA

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) March 1, 2022

What the fuck.

christ

I think that's what happens when they hit an ammo dump.

Diplomats leaving as Lavrov/Ribbentrop holding his speech. #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/Q0osIfG2fX

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 1, 2022

Ukrainian MP Oleksi Goncharenko responds to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s statement that Russia is willing to begin negotiations when Ukraine “restores democratic order.” #FuckYouLavrov #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/qcNsSkiIbQ

— ꇙ꓄꒤🌻 (@rewilde_) February 27, 2022

xpost Remember what the Russians did to Grozny in the Second Chechnya war... pretty much flattened it

That could well be what they plan to do here

I don't think they will move to Grozny levels this quickly, it leaves them no cards to play.

...perhaps they have no other cards?

I heard a radio program last weekend about Putin's suspected (or likely) involvement in the Sept 1999 Moscow Apartment bombings... pretty scary stuff, hundreds of innocent Russians died to justify an invasion of Chechnya:

According to Satter, all four bombings that occurred had a similar "signature" which indicated that the explosives had been carefully prepared, a mark of skilled specialists. There is also no explanation as to how the terrorists were able to obtain tons of hexogen explosive and transport it to various locations in Russia; hexogen is produced in one plant in Perm Oblast for which the central FSB is responsible for the security...

According to the report, "no credible evidence has been presented by the Russian authorities linking Chechen terrorists, or anyone else, to the Moscow bombings."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings#Russian_government_involvement_theory

...perhaps they have no other cards?

― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, March 1, 2022 1:34 PM (seventeen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I mean honestly I don't fucking know any better than anyone, I just would think maybe they'd escalate gradually rather than flooring it, hoping to scare Ukraine into capitulating rather than just immediately flattening it.

Yeah, I would think the negotiation sessions could basically be Russian saying what they will do next if there isn't capitulation.

If there's another bitter irony here it's that Kharkiv is, I gather, a predominantly Russian city.

Xposts

Yeah the 1999 Moscow bombings are some crazy stuff. The source of Putin’s rise to power. And of course various people investigating it have been killed, Litvinenko among them.

I've gotten used to thinking of Putin as Cable TV villian, Playing The Long Game, but seems like time is of the essence here, with a long campaign in the east too reminiscent of "Russia's Vietnam, " AKA Afghanistan---this, with economic pressure from the West on oligarchs, like those two I linked upthread, already denouncing the invasion, also xpost bank runs by "ordinary Russians," may make him quickly escalate in some fashion(s).

Don't know if this has been verified:https://www.npr.org/2022/02/28/1083616770/russia-is-using-controversial-cluster-munitions-in-ukraine-humanitarian-groups-s
or this: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-ambassador-us-says-russia-used-vacuum-bomb-monday-2022-02-28/

Could see him going chemical to some extent, also use of gas; bacteriological might be harder to control--? Although radiation from Chernobyl has reportedly increased since they took that, so messiness might not be big consideration 'til campaign is over?

Soviets definitely used chemical weapons in Afghanistan, I wouldn't put it past him at all

(PS: GOP mainly matters here, not too much I hope, but like they writhed around and fucked with Clinton's decisions re Serbo-Croatian War, Obama's re Egypt and Libya, not to blame then entirely for mistakes of those Administrations, but there were effects. Like they may well call for Biden to get more involved militarily, scream if he does.)

(Also, even with US and other NATO countries about to release what's feasible from their Strategic Oil Reserves, looks like Europe will need Russian resources again pretty soon, although might be stopgaps; still, a general recession could put more economic pressure on West---GOP: DO SOMETHING DO SOMETHING OLD WEAK MAN)

blah blah leading from behind

Indeed--infuriating reminder yet again that this is no longer The American Century, not that they handled that very well either.
he attack on the TV tower in Kyiv, which killed five people and wounded five others, was close to the memorial site that commemorates the victims of Babyn Yar, the ravine where Nazi soldiers massacred up to 150,000 people during the second world war – including more than 30,000 Jews - Zelenskiy tweeted: “What is the point of saying ‘never again’ for 80 years, if the world stays silent when a bomb drops on the same site of Babyn Yar? At least five killed. History repeating…”
,,,the Ukrainian president said at least 16 children had been killed around Ukraine on Monday and mocked Russia’s claim that it was going after only military targets.

“Where are these children, what kind of military factories do they work at? What tanks are they going at, launching cruise missiles?” He reiterated his country’s wish to join the EU, saying Ukraine “has a desire to see our children alive – I think it is a fair one. We are fighting for survival. We are fighting to be equal members of Europe. We are exactly the same as you are.” Which membership would be seized on as yet more provocation---although at this point, what difference could it make? A bargaining chip? Looks like too late.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/fears-of-bloody-fight-for-kyiv-as-huge-russian-army-convoy-gathers-on-outskirts

But if he does start fucking with NATO territory---? Better to go into pre-emptive mode against him? Such as? No-win scenarios all around, seems like (vs. Putin).

Hard to see Russia immediately going into a NATO country when it's having trouble with supply lines to an area just across its own border.

Yeah, that seems right for now! Hope it continues.
xp"State terrorism," he called it---yeah, pretty common: targeting civilians to demoralize, like Allies and Axis in The Good War.

before this war, i didn't think (to the extent i thought about it, which was not much) that ukraine had a chance to enter the EU anytime soon. mainly because of fears that russia would do...something like this

now it seems more likely than it ever has? not saying that means >50% or anything like that, just that now there's a plausible scenario* where ukraine enters the EU where it seemed like 0% before

*scenario assumes that ukraine is not completely destroyed

Yep. And seems like he might be thinking that if he hangs in there a few more months, past election time in several countries, or even if there's a "ceasefire" of sorts, after so much carnage, and basically on his terms, that enough present NATO leaders will be discredited and replaced by rightists who may talk a big game but basically be amenable enough to his POV, as a fair number of them already are, except for being mostly isolationists, obsessed w internal politics, otherwise clueless, so fine Vlad, let's make a a deal please.

Guardian report on the rush to evacuate Kyiv:

She had bought tickets for six different trains, but soon realised they counted for nothing. Instead, there was a boarding algorithm: first mothers with children, then women, then old people. Others were kept away by the police and soldiers standing guard.

Quickly, the train was crammed full. Families had to make split-second decisions, as mothers and children were allowed to board but grandparents told to wait behind.

This was the sixth day of Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, and by now fear had taken over. In the first days, there was a sense of shock and disbelief. Then came pride and inspiration, at the surprisingly resilient Ukrainian response and the unity of Ukrainian society.

Whoops, wrong link above. It's:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/it-might-be-the-last-chance-to-get-out-citizens-flee-kyiv-as-assault-intensifies

"Families had to make split-second decisions, as mothers and children were allowed to board but grandparents told to wait behind."

This sounds so horrific.

Grozny got mentioned up thread… and it’s possible after months/years of flighting some Ukraine cities could find themselves in a similar state; one big difference (outside of the size and fighting abilities of Ukraine vs Chechnya) is the west and the media care a hell of a lot more about Ukraine.
The world, and possibly even the Russian people themselves, are going to meet similar actions with much more outrage.

We were also much less anti-Russian at the time of Chechnya, and of course you didn't have social media.

Yes. True.