ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Apologies for the repurposed content, but the HF radio campaign hasn't stopped.

If I understand this HF Underground thread correctly, a pirate station Out There is jamming the infamous Russian “Buzzer” transmitter with a “Stop War” sonogram. Lots of Eastern Europe pirates going wIth “Fuck Putin” programming. #FuckPutin https://t.co/q8Kv8LpJek pic.twitter.com/oa2wUwIIUY

— Chris Barrus (@quartzcity) February 27, 2022

Another Eastern European pirate out there is broadcasting Sting’s “Russians” over and over. https://t.co/brDdsNtRaq pic.twitter.com/FvGm57yC2d

— Chris Barrus (@quartzcity) February 27, 2022

A couple days ago, someone posted a picture of a captured Russian army radio on social media. Someone quickly ID'ed it as an off-the-shelf, unencrypted Baofeng transceiver from China (you can get them on Amazon for $100) and since then Russian military frequencies have been flooded with pervasive and unrelenting pirate transmissions, broadcasts, sound effects, “Fuck Putin” chants, etc. My fave is the one pirate that’s busting in and flooding the frequency with pig noises:
https://soundcloud.com/frenchbloke/websdr-recording-start-2022-02-28t10-32-36z-79333khz

It hasn't stopped either

Still cannot get over that Russian military HF frequency being overrun with pig noises. 10/10 full spectrum shitposting.

— Maid POLadin 🎪 💙💛 (@tacticalmaid) March 1, 2022

shout out to the solo guitarist absolutely shredding over the 7933 Russian military frequency

— frenchbloke (@frenchbloke) February 28, 2022

Anyway, as I've been speed-reading Gary Lachman's The Return Of Holy Russia in preparation of my pivot to Russian Apocalyptic Mysticism expert I'm going back to shutting the fuck up.

That Fiona Hill interview posted above is pretty sobering.

Ugh

https://i.imgur.com/YUBd0BW.png

Nothing is likely to beat her saying that Poland has surprisingly good sushi for a landlocked country.

Lot of ostensibly serious people out there casually throwing around the idea of a no-fly zone with absolutely no concept of NATO or Article 5.

In light of the ongoing war conflict in Ukraine, the International Judo Federation announces the suspension of Mr. Vladimir Putin’s status as Honorary President and Ambassador of the International Judo Federation.https://t.co/QQDZbF6rfd

— Judo (@Judo) February 27, 2022

Barbaric Russian missile strikes on the central Freedom Square and residential districts of Kharkiv. Putin is unable to break Ukraine down. He commits more war crimes out of fury, murders innocent civilians. The world can and must do more. INCREASE PRESSURE, ISOLATE RUSSIA FULLY! pic.twitter.com/tN4VHF1A9n

— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) March 1, 2022

An Indian student was killed in the Kharkiv shelling which might put some domestic pressure on Modi to speak up a bit.

Gotta borrow Ned's "my brain died" for this reported absolute tonedeafness, which I assume won't automatically make worldwide news (my translation):

RUSSIA CONCERNED ABOUT NORWEGIAN-DANISH RELATIONSHIP

Russia's embassy in Denmark expresses worry about the relationship between Norway and Denmark, DR reports.

The background for the Russian concern is a proposal to rename the street in Copenhagen where the Russian embassy is located. Danish politicians wish to rename the street from Kristiania Street to Ukraine Street.

– The Russian embassy would like to remind that Kristiania Street carries the former name of Norway's capital, and symbolizes historical ties and good relations between Denmark and Norway, the embassy writes on Twitter.

The scenario Fiona Hill sketches out in the Politico piece linked to above sounds pretty plausible to me. Putin can and will take Ukraine, but he can't hold onto to it, so he'll just fuck it up, there'll be a Russian fiefdom in the east, a rump Ukraine in the west, continually fighting in a hot or cold war, continually unstable so it can't really join or be an effective member/ally of NATO or the EU.

― Zelda Zonk, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 04:50 (eight hours ago) link

The longer I have to let this sink in the more horrible it seems. An embarrassed and frustrated Russia increasingly hating and lashing out at the occupied population, endless attrition on both sides. Occupation is horrible, and there’s nothing romantic about insurgency. Longer it drags on, more opportunity for something to draw in another European power. I don’t think Ukraine would be better off just accepting Russian rule because they clearly don’t think so. I don’t think this is just NATO using Ukraine as proxy, Ukrainians clearly and very badly do not want to be subjugated by Russia. But I am having a hard time seeing another way this turns out. I hope there is some lesser option that Putin can claim as a victory to save face, although I imagine he will just build up toward another invasion in the future and that the expansionism won’t end.

I thought the Fiona Hill interview - which ran a couple of days ago, right? - was indeed sobering, but also sometimes a little full of shit, especially when it came to the threat of nuclear weapons, which has become its clickbait headline/scare quote. Stuff like this graf:

He’s already used a nuclear weapon in some respects. Russian operatives poisoned Alexander Litvinenko with radioactive polonium and turned him into a human dirty bomb and polonium was spread all around London at every spot that poor man visited. He died a horrible death as a result.

Sorry, no, poisoning an enemy with nuclear material is not the same as using a nuclear weapon, nor was he turned into a "human dirty bomb." And then she pivots to nerve agents. We already know that Putin has no problem killing his enemies in horrible ways, but so far it has been targeted and somewhat fussy. There's a big difference between that and shooting a missile that indiscriminately kills hundreds or thousands or more. Not that I'm not scared he would use a nuclear weapon, just that Hill comes off a little cavalier in her confidence.

Of course, Hill is in the end flying as blind as the rest, too, and there are some frustrating loose ends to her arguments. She says that sanctions are not enough, but she said this right before historically massive sanctions kicked in. She keeps saying that this deserves a "major" international response, "larger than NATO," and (rightly, imo) comparing the situation to WWII, but falls short of offering any specific recommendations. She implies Putin is a little nuts but then emphasizes his methodical long game. She is super smart and knows more than most, but I kind of already want a follow-up.

Meanwhile, a new Kofman thought

Looking at the Russian operation so far, they're having tremendous problems with logistics and communications. The whole effort seems shambolic. Some structural, some probably more specific to this operation, but will be doing a separate thread on those problems later.

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 1, 2022

Ngl, I don't believe a word that Hill or anyone like her says.

a proposal to rename the street in Copenhagen where the Russian embassy is located. Danish politicians wish to rename the street from Kristiania Street to Ukraine Street.

what's tone deaf? in the mid-eighties glasgow renamed st. george's place - where the south african embassy had offices - nelson mandela place

Assuming the Russian embassy's reaction is what's being described as tone deaf, tho I'd say they know exactly what tone they're striking.

ah ok

Ngl, I don't believe a word that Hill or anyone like her says.

― we need outrage! we need dicks!! (the table is the table), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 14:12 (thirty minutes ago) link

Why? I know nothing about her so genuinely wondering.

She seems highly capable of making wry judgments about other people's fuckups, but I don't have enough expertise to understand whether her dour predictions are reasonable and made in good faith. I tend to reflexively distrust "we wouldn't be in this mess if you'd listened to me" and "here's what'll happen" type commentators but that'd just my baggage. She did work for Trump.

Just had a chance to ask a question to @BorisJohnson https://t.co/4ee6eXJj6g

— Daria Kaleniuk (@dkaleniuk) March 1, 2022

I understand being skeptical of anyone who’s spent a career in the foreign policy establishment, we all know what kinds of bullshit they’ve sold us over the years. But at the same time, there is some value in just the plain old subject matter expertise of people who have spent years and years studying certain issues in places in people. I certainly wouldn’t put any ideas I have about what the fuck is going on in Ukraine up against Fiona Hill’s.

AND places AND people I mean

Mr Telecom (and anyone else interested in Russian Apocalyptic thinking), have you read Timothy Snyder's "Road to Unfreedom"?

what's tone deaf?

Should have been clearer: the Russian apparent idea that this would bother Norway at all. Could just be a bit of trolling, obv.

regardless of how Putin & the Russian military thought things were gonna go or what sanctions they'd have to deal with can we at least conclude that the propaganda war is going very badly for them? like I live in a country that tried to "both sides" Nazi rallies and permanently separating kids from their parents, and even here you have an overwhelming majority rejecting the Trump/Tucker/Ingraham lines. Russia's allies aren't condoning this, it looks like the vast majority of their citizens disagree with it, and every country on Earth seems to be telling them to go fuck themselves if they need anything. don't Putin's goals here depend on him being remaining popular in Russia at least, just as he was virtually every other time he tried this?

I suspect wishcasting in a lot of this stuff, but still

BREAKING: U.S. believes Russia has committed more than 80 percent of pre-staged troops into Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official.

Russia has not been able to advance on Kyiv due to fuel & sustainment problems. "Not only are they running out of gas, they're running out of food"

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 1, 2022

BREAKING-U.S. assesses that morale is flagging in some Russian units, and that some Russian units have surrendered without a fight in Ukraine, a senior US defense official says

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 1, 2022

It's that 80 percent claim that kinda sticks with me -- building up that amount of forces and then having to commit the vast majority of it within not even quite a week without obvious controlling success seems less than ideal.

it's tough to balance that with the images of a forty-mile long convoy approaching/circling kyiv

Yes. I feel very pessimistic now.

I have been thinking about the last week and the number of times I have read: "One thing we can say is that this is not going as Russia expected".

I've been cheered up by such statements, but the truth is: How do we know what Russia expected?

I'm afraid that most of the people who say these things have no idea what Russia expected.

IDK the technical meaning of "committed into" - not sure that actually means 80% of troops are currently fighting, and I doubt it. Also worth reading the rest of Detsch's tweets for context, paints a less optimistic picture.

yeah. he retweeted another journalist saying "Two things that can both be true: 1) The Ukrainians are putting up a hell of a fight and the Russians are more disorganized and poorly supplied than expected 2) Russia still have overwhelming force and capabilities, and there's no off-ramp for Putin." pretty much where i'm at as well

I've been cheered up by such statements, but the truth is: How do we know what Russia expected?

I'm afraid that most of the people who say these things have no idea what Russia expected.

Pre-scheduled propaganda articles have been published in Russian papers etc. describing exactly what they hoped would happen, as if it had happened.

Holy shit at this one

#BREAKING: Massive explosion reported over Kharkiv, Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/OfC4gzhbMA

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) March 1, 2022

What the fuck.

christ

I think that's what happens when they hit an ammo dump.

Diplomats leaving as Lavrov/Ribbentrop holding his speech. #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/Q0osIfG2fX

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 1, 2022

Ukrainian MP Oleksi Goncharenko responds to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s statement that Russia is willing to begin negotiations when Ukraine “restores democratic order.” #FuckYouLavrov #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/qcNsSkiIbQ

— ꇙ꓄꒤🌻 (@rewilde_) February 27, 2022

xpost Remember what the Russians did to Grozny in the Second Chechnya war... pretty much flattened it

That could well be what they plan to do here

I don't think they will move to Grozny levels this quickly, it leaves them no cards to play.

...perhaps they have no other cards?

I heard a radio program last weekend about Putin's suspected (or likely) involvement in the Sept 1999 Moscow Apartment bombings... pretty scary stuff, hundreds of innocent Russians died to justify an invasion of Chechnya:

According to Satter, all four bombings that occurred had a similar "signature" which indicated that the explosives had been carefully prepared, a mark of skilled specialists. There is also no explanation as to how the terrorists were able to obtain tons of hexogen explosive and transport it to various locations in Russia; hexogen is produced in one plant in Perm Oblast for which the central FSB is responsible for the security...

According to the report, "no credible evidence has been presented by the Russian authorities linking Chechen terrorists, or anyone else, to the Moscow bombings."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings#Russian_government_involvement_theory

...perhaps they have no other cards?

― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, March 1, 2022 1:34 PM (seventeen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I mean honestly I don't fucking know any better than anyone, I just would think maybe they'd escalate gradually rather than flooring it, hoping to scare Ukraine into capitulating rather than just immediately flattening it.

Yeah, I would think the negotiation sessions could basically be Russian saying what they will do next if there isn't capitulation.

If there's another bitter irony here it's that Kharkiv is, I gather, a predominantly Russian city.

Xposts

Yeah the 1999 Moscow bombings are some crazy stuff. The source of Putin’s rise to power. And of course various people investigating it have been killed, Litvinenko among them.

I've gotten used to thinking of Putin as Cable TV villian, Playing The Long Game, but seems like time is of the essence here, with a long campaign in the east too reminiscent of "Russia's Vietnam, " AKA Afghanistan---this, with economic pressure from the West on oligarchs, like those two I linked upthread, already denouncing the invasion, also xpost bank runs by "ordinary Russians," may make him quickly escalate in some fashion(s).

Don't know if this has been verified:https://www.npr.org/2022/02/28/1083616770/russia-is-using-controversial-cluster-munitions-in-ukraine-humanitarian-groups-s
or this: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-ambassador-us-says-russia-used-vacuum-bomb-monday-2022-02-28/

Could see him going chemical to some extent, also use of gas; bacteriological might be harder to control--? Although radiation from Chernobyl has reportedly increased since they took that, so messiness might not be big consideration 'til campaign is over?

Soviets definitely used chemical weapons in Afghanistan, I wouldn't put it past him at all

(PS: GOP mainly matters here, not too much I hope, but like they writhed around and fucked with Clinton's decisions re Serbo-Croatian War, Obama's re Egypt and Libya, not to blame then entirely for mistakes of those Administrations, but there were effects. Like they may well call for Biden to get more involved militarily, scream if he does.)