cant tell if this has been posted already, sobering interview w Dr Fiona Hill on Putinhttps://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
― terminators of endearment (VegemiteGrrl), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 02:41 (two years ago) link
I thought this was really interesting -- "In just 72 hours, Europe overhauled its entire post-Cold War relationship with Russia"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/28/europe-new-era-russia-ukraine/
― Everybody Loves Ramen (WmC), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 02:41 (two years ago) link
uh remove the dr there xpost
― terminators of endearment (VegemiteGrrl), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 02:43 (two years ago) link
Since I brought up white nationalist Putin etc fans (Before Greene’s remarks, Fuentes asked the audience to give “a round of applause” for Russia during its brutal invasion of Ukraine, which prompted a chant of “Putin” from the crowd in support of Moscow’s leader). might as well put in this, though tangential to war: How Ukraine Split The GOP https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2022/02/28/how-ukraine-split-the-gop-00012394?nname=politico-nightly&nid=00000170-c000-da87-af78-e185fa700000&nrid=00000172-4d9a-d3ba-a9f3-6f9e04a20000&nlid=2670445
― dow, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 03:25 (two years ago) link
The 'ok what the ukraine-adjacent fuck is happening in the us' thread is thataway
― When the Pain That You Feel is the Bite of an Eel, That's a Moray (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 03:53 (two years ago) link
It's kind of funny when darragh does that but it also kinda seems like folly to imagine the impact of this war on us (and uk and eu and etc) politics isn't important enough to talk about here
― underminer of twenty years of excellent contribution to this borad (dan m), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 04:03 (two years ago) link
yes but the thread refers to IN ukraine and us politics however related is not IN ukraine & can therefore be discussed elsewhere because literally no one but us-ians are clamoring to discuss that here itt
― terminators of endearment (VegemiteGrrl), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 04:29 (two years ago) link
The scenario Fiona Hill sketches out in the Politico piece linked to above sounds pretty plausible to me. Putin can and will take Ukraine, but he can't hold onto to it, so he'll just fuck it up, there'll be a Russian fiefdom in the east, a rump Ukraine in the west, continually fighting in a hot or cold war, continually unstable so it can't really join or be an effective member/ally of NATO or the EU.
― Zelda Zonk, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 04:50 (two years ago) link
Apologies for the repurposed content, but the HF radio campaign hasn't stopped.
If I understand this HF Underground thread correctly, a pirate station Out There is jamming the infamous Russian “Buzzer” transmitter with a “Stop War” sonogram. Lots of Eastern Europe pirates going wIth “Fuck Putin” programming. #FuckPutin https://t.co/q8Kv8LpJek pic.twitter.com/oa2wUwIIUY— Chris Barrus (@quartzcity) February 27, 2022
Another Eastern European pirate out there is broadcasting Sting’s “Russians” over and over. https://t.co/brDdsNtRaq pic.twitter.com/FvGm57yC2d— Chris Barrus (@quartzcity) February 27, 2022
― Elvis Telecom, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 08:12 (two years ago) link
A couple days ago, someone posted a picture of a captured Russian army radio on social media. Someone quickly ID'ed it as an off-the-shelf, unencrypted Baofeng transceiver from China (you can get them on Amazon for $100) and since then Russian military frequencies have been flooded with pervasive and unrelenting pirate transmissions, broadcasts, sound effects, “Fuck Putin” chants, etc. My fave is the one pirate that’s busting in and flooding the frequency with pig noises:https://soundcloud.com/frenchbloke/websdr-recording-start-2022-02-28t10-32-36z-79333khz
― Elvis Telecom, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 08:16 (two years ago) link
It hasn't stopped either
Still cannot get over that Russian military HF frequency being overrun with pig noises. 10/10 full spectrum shitposting.— Maid POLadin 🎪 💙💛 (@tacticalmaid) March 1, 2022
shout out to the solo guitarist absolutely shredding over the 7933 Russian military frequency— frenchbloke (@frenchbloke) February 28, 2022
― Elvis Telecom, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 08:18 (two years ago) link
Anyway, as I've been speed-reading Gary Lachman's The Return Of Holy Russia in preparation of my pivot to Russian Apocalyptic Mysticism expert I'm going back to shutting the fuck up.
― Elvis Telecom, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 08:25 (two years ago) link
That Fiona Hill interview posted above is pretty sobering.
― Sam Weller, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 08:26 (two years ago) link
Ugh https://i.imgur.com/YUBd0BW.png
― Alba, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 09:51 (two years ago) link
Nothing is likely to beat her saying that Poland has surprisingly good sushi for a landlocked country.
― Scampo di tutti i Scampi (ShariVari), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 09:53 (two years ago) link
Lot of ostensibly serious people out there casually throwing around the idea of a no-fly zone with absolutely no concept of NATO or Article 5.
― Sam Weller, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 10:15 (two years ago) link
In light of the ongoing war conflict in Ukraine, the International Judo Federation announces the suspension of Mr. Vladimir Putin’s status as Honorary President and Ambassador of the International Judo Federation.https://t.co/QQDZbF6rfd— Judo (@Judo) February 27, 2022
― Sam Weller, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 11:07 (two years ago) link
Barbaric Russian missile strikes on the central Freedom Square and residential districts of Kharkiv. Putin is unable to break Ukraine down. He commits more war crimes out of fury, murders innocent civilians. The world can and must do more. INCREASE PRESSURE, ISOLATE RUSSIA FULLY! pic.twitter.com/tN4VHF1A9n— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) March 1, 2022
― Number None, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 11:22 (two years ago) link
An Indian student was killed in the Kharkiv shelling which might put some domestic pressure on Modi to speak up a bit.
― Scampo di tutti i Scampi (ShariVari), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 11:43 (two years ago) link
Gotta borrow Ned's "my brain died" for this reported absolute tonedeafness, which I assume won't automatically make worldwide news (my translation):
RUSSIA CONCERNED ABOUT NORWEGIAN-DANISH RELATIONSHIPRussia's embassy in Denmark expresses worry about the relationship between Norway and Denmark, DR reports.The background for the Russian concern is a proposal to rename the street in Copenhagen where the Russian embassy is located. Danish politicians wish to rename the street from Kristiania Street to Ukraine Street.– The Russian embassy would like to remind that Kristiania Street carries the former name of Norway's capital, and symbolizes historical ties and good relations between Denmark and Norway, the embassy writes on Twitter.
Russia's embassy in Denmark expresses worry about the relationship between Norway and Denmark, DR reports.
The background for the Russian concern is a proposal to rename the street in Copenhagen where the Russian embassy is located. Danish politicians wish to rename the street from Kristiania Street to Ukraine Street.
– The Russian embassy would like to remind that Kristiania Street carries the former name of Norway's capital, and symbolizes historical ties and good relations between Denmark and Norway, the embassy writes on Twitter.
― anatol_merklich, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 12:36 (two years ago) link
― Zelda Zonk, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 04:50 (eight hours ago) link
The longer I have to let this sink in the more horrible it seems. An embarrassed and frustrated Russia increasingly hating and lashing out at the occupied population, endless attrition on both sides. Occupation is horrible, and there’s nothing romantic about insurgency. Longer it drags on, more opportunity for something to draw in another European power. I don’t think Ukraine would be better off just accepting Russian rule because they clearly don’t think so. I don’t think this is just NATO using Ukraine as proxy, Ukrainians clearly and very badly do not want to be subjugated by Russia. But I am having a hard time seeing another way this turns out. I hope there is some lesser option that Putin can claim as a victory to save face, although I imagine he will just build up toward another invasion in the future and that the expansionism won’t end.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 13:06 (two years ago) link
I thought the Fiona Hill interview - which ran a couple of days ago, right? - was indeed sobering, but also sometimes a little full of shit, especially when it came to the threat of nuclear weapons, which has become its clickbait headline/scare quote. Stuff like this graf:
He’s already used a nuclear weapon in some respects. Russian operatives poisoned Alexander Litvinenko with radioactive polonium and turned him into a human dirty bomb and polonium was spread all around London at every spot that poor man visited. He died a horrible death as a result.
Sorry, no, poisoning an enemy with nuclear material is not the same as using a nuclear weapon, nor was he turned into a "human dirty bomb." And then she pivots to nerve agents. We already know that Putin has no problem killing his enemies in horrible ways, but so far it has been targeted and somewhat fussy. There's a big difference between that and shooting a missile that indiscriminately kills hundreds or thousands or more. Not that I'm not scared he would use a nuclear weapon, just that Hill comes off a little cavalier in her confidence.
Of course, Hill is in the end flying as blind as the rest, too, and there are some frustrating loose ends to her arguments. She says that sanctions are not enough, but she said this right before historically massive sanctions kicked in. She keeps saying that this deserves a "major" international response, "larger than NATO," and (rightly, imo) comparing the situation to WWII, but falls short of offering any specific recommendations. She implies Putin is a little nuts but then emphasizes his methodical long game. She is super smart and knows more than most, but I kind of already want a follow-up.
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 13:43 (two years ago) link
Meanwhile, a new Kofman thought
Looking at the Russian operation so far, they're having tremendous problems with logistics and communications. The whole effort seems shambolic. Some structural, some probably more specific to this operation, but will be doing a separate thread on those problems later.— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 1, 2022
― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 13:46 (two years ago) link
Ngl, I don't believe a word that Hill or anyone like her says.
― we need outrage! we need dicks!! (the table is the table), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 14:12 (two years ago) link
a proposal to rename the street in Copenhagen where the Russian embassy is located. Danish politicians wish to rename the street from Kristiania Street to Ukraine Street.
what's tone deaf? in the mid-eighties glasgow renamed st. george's place - where the south african embassy had offices - nelson mandela place
― conrad, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 14:23 (two years ago) link
Assuming the Russian embassy's reaction is what's being described as tone deaf, tho I'd say they know exactly what tone they're striking.
― Daniel_Rf, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 14:25 (two years ago) link
ah ok
― conrad, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 14:34 (two years ago) link
― we need outrage! we need dicks!! (the table is the table), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 14:12 (thirty minutes ago) link
Why? I know nothing about her so genuinely wondering.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 14:44 (two years ago) link
She seems highly capable of making wry judgments about other people's fuckups, but I don't have enough expertise to understand whether her dour predictions are reasonable and made in good faith. I tend to reflexively distrust "we wouldn't be in this mess if you'd listened to me" and "here's what'll happen" type commentators but that'd just my baggage. She did work for Trump.
― Chuck_Tatum, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 15:38 (two years ago) link
Just had a chance to ask a question to @BorisJohnson https://t.co/4ee6eXJj6g— Daria Kaleniuk (@dkaleniuk) March 1, 2022
― stirmonster, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 16:15 (two years ago) link
I understand being skeptical of anyone who’s spent a career in the foreign policy establishment, we all know what kinds of bullshit they’ve sold us over the years. But at the same time, there is some value in just the plain old subject matter expertise of people who have spent years and years studying certain issues in places in people. I certainly wouldn’t put any ideas I have about what the fuck is going on in Ukraine up against Fiona Hill’s.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 16:22 (two years ago) link
AND places AND people I mean
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 16:23 (two years ago) link
Mr Telecom (and anyone else interested in Russian Apocalyptic thinking), have you read Timothy Snyder's "Road to Unfreedom"?
― m0stly clean (Slowsquatch), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 16:25 (two years ago) link
what's tone deaf?
Should have been clearer: the Russian apparent idea that this would bother Norway at all. Could just be a bit of trolling, obv.
― anatol_merklich, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 16:32 (two years ago) link
regardless of how Putin & the Russian military thought things were gonna go or what sanctions they'd have to deal with can we at least conclude that the propaganda war is going very badly for them? like I live in a country that tried to "both sides" Nazi rallies and permanently separating kids from their parents, and even here you have an overwhelming majority rejecting the Trump/Tucker/Ingraham lines. Russia's allies aren't condoning this, it looks like the vast majority of their citizens disagree with it, and every country on Earth seems to be telling them to go fuck themselves if they need anything. don't Putin's goals here depend on him being remaining popular in Russia at least, just as he was virtually every other time he tried this?
― frogbs, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 16:42 (two years ago) link
I suspect wishcasting in a lot of this stuff, but still
BREAKING: U.S. believes Russia has committed more than 80 percent of pre-staged troops into Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official.Russia has not been able to advance on Kyiv due to fuel & sustainment problems. "Not only are they running out of gas, they're running out of food"— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 1, 2022
BREAKING-U.S. assesses that morale is flagging in some Russian units, and that some Russian units have surrendered without a fight in Ukraine, a senior US defense official says— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 1, 2022
It's that 80 percent claim that kinda sticks with me -- building up that amount of forces and then having to commit the vast majority of it within not even quite a week without obvious controlling success seems less than ideal.
― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 16:50 (two years ago) link
it's tough to balance that with the images of a forty-mile long convoy approaching/circling kyiv
― the world's undisputed #1 fan of 'Spud Infinity' (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 16:51 (two years ago) link
Yes. I feel very pessimistic now.
I have been thinking about the last week and the number of times I have read: "One thing we can say is that this is not going as Russia expected".
I've been cheered up by such statements, but the truth is: How do we know what Russia expected?
I'm afraid that most of the people who say these things have no idea what Russia expected.
― the pinefox, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 16:57 (two years ago) link
IDK the technical meaning of "committed into" - not sure that actually means 80% of troops are currently fighting, and I doubt it. Also worth reading the rest of Detsch's tweets for context, paints a less optimistic picture.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 17:01 (two years ago) link
yeah. he retweeted another journalist saying "Two things that can both be true: 1) The Ukrainians are putting up a hell of a fight and the Russians are more disorganized and poorly supplied than expected 2) Russia still have overwhelming force and capabilities, and there's no off-ramp for Putin." pretty much where i'm at as well
― nobody like my rap (One Eye Open), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 17:08 (two years ago) link
Pre-scheduled propaganda articles have been published in Russian papers etc. describing exactly what they hoped would happen, as if it had happened.
― but also fuck you (unperson), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 18:07 (two years ago) link
Holy shit at this one
#BREAKING: Massive explosion reported over Kharkiv, Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/OfC4gzhbMA— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) March 1, 2022
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 18:22 (two years ago) link
What the fuck.
― peace, man, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 18:22 (two years ago) link
christ
― aegis philbin (crüt), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 18:26 (two years ago) link
I think that's what happens when they hit an ammo dump.
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 18:28 (two years ago) link
Diplomats leaving as Lavrov/Ribbentrop holding his speech. #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/Q0osIfG2fX— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 1, 2022
Ukrainian MP Oleksi Goncharenko responds to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s statement that Russia is willing to begin negotiations when Ukraine “restores democratic order.” #FuckYouLavrov #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/qcNsSkiIbQ— ꇙ꓄꒤🌻 (@rewilde_) February 27, 2022
― but also fuck you (unperson), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 18:29 (two years ago) link
xpost Remember what the Russians did to Grozny in the Second Chechnya war... pretty much flattened it
That could well be what they plan to do here
― Andy the Grasshopper, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 18:30 (two years ago) link
I don't think they will move to Grozny levels this quickly, it leaves them no cards to play.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 18:33 (two years ago) link
...perhaps they have no other cards?
― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 18:34 (two years ago) link
I heard a radio program last weekend about Putin's suspected (or likely) involvement in the Sept 1999 Moscow Apartment bombings... pretty scary stuff, hundreds of innocent Russians died to justify an invasion of Chechnya:
According to Satter, all four bombings that occurred had a similar "signature" which indicated that the explosives had been carefully prepared, a mark of skilled specialists. There is also no explanation as to how the terrorists were able to obtain tons of hexogen explosive and transport it to various locations in Russia; hexogen is produced in one plant in Perm Oblast for which the central FSB is responsible for the security...
According to the report, "no credible evidence has been presented by the Russian authorities linking Chechen terrorists, or anyone else, to the Moscow bombings."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings#Russian_government_involvement_theory
― Andy the Grasshopper, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 18:47 (two years ago) link