ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

So uh, what is Putin's plan at this point? He can take Ukraine but it doesn't seem like he can hold it, right?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzBxFH_hEwA

xp Wonder if we're going to have worries about invasion and white refugee porn on here, like somebody showed up on the in-progress Katrina thread, worrying that us participants were going down the slippery slope to disaster porn. Not really a question.

right?

There are plausible scenarios that play out in many ways, and that is one of them, but not the most likely one imo

A 17-mile convoy of military vehicles approaching DC I mean Kyiv was reported recently---I suppose, whatever else is happening, he means to use the city at least as a bargaining chip, for some deal he can renege on at the right time, also install a puppet government of sorts.

Right, people seem to think that a puppet government was his original plan. But that seems like a ludicrous idea given what we've seen of Ukrainian resistance, no? You would need an occupying army to keep a puppet government in place. And the 150k soldiers the Russians have assembled wouldn't be enough.

think that's right and worried about what plan b is

Make that 40 miles long:

40 mile convoy en route. The world is watching. #Ukraine https://t.co/zDVuRdMjc9

— G Morishige (@gmorishige) March 1, 2022

p much praying that that's just intimidation during negotiations and not intention

Right, people seem to think that a puppet government was his original plan. But that seems like a ludicrous idea given what we've seen of Ukrainian resistance, no?

I dunno. Wield enough "liberation" propaganda, especially if it's for a cause you yourself see as utterly and obviously righteous (the restitution of Great Russia!), and I suppose you might underestimate resistance among people you assume is really of your own, if somewhat led astray?

(the last clause is a bit ambiguous, for clarity it should read "even if they have been somewhat led astray?".)

Isa Akayev, commander of the "Crimea" volunteer battalion, addressed the Muslims of #Russia. pic.twitter.com/OefoxK3zId

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) February 28, 2022

hmm sorry i thought that was the subtitled version i saw before. i apologize.

There's a translation in the replies.

cant tell if this has been posted already, sobering interview w Dr Fiona Hill on Putin

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

I thought this was really interesting -- "In just 72 hours, Europe overhauled its entire post-Cold War relationship with Russia"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/28/europe-new-era-russia-ukraine/

uh remove the dr there xpost

Since I brought up white nationalist Putin etc fans (Before Greene’s remarks, Fuentes asked the audience to give “a round of applause” for Russia during its brutal invasion of Ukraine, which prompted a chant of “Putin” from the crowd in support of Moscow’s leader). might as well put in this, though tangential to war: How Ukraine Split The GOP https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2022/02/28/how-ukraine-split-the-gop-00012394?nname=politico-nightly&nid=00000170-c000-da87-af78-e185fa700000&nrid=00000172-4d9a-d3ba-a9f3-6f9e04a20000&nlid=2670445

The 'ok what the ukraine-adjacent fuck is happening in the us' thread is thataway

It's kind of funny when darragh does that but it also kinda seems like folly to imagine the impact of this war on us (and uk and eu and etc) politics isn't important enough to talk about here

yes but the thread refers to IN ukraine and us politics however related is not IN ukraine & can therefore be discussed elsewhere because literally no one but us-ians are clamoring to discuss that here itt

The scenario Fiona Hill sketches out in the Politico piece linked to above sounds pretty plausible to me. Putin can and will take Ukraine, but he can't hold onto to it, so he'll just fuck it up, there'll be a Russian fiefdom in the east, a rump Ukraine in the west, continually fighting in a hot or cold war, continually unstable so it can't really join or be an effective member/ally of NATO or the EU.

Apologies for the repurposed content, but the HF radio campaign hasn't stopped.

If I understand this HF Underground thread correctly, a pirate station Out There is jamming the infamous Russian “Buzzer” transmitter with a “Stop War” sonogram. Lots of Eastern Europe pirates going wIth “Fuck Putin” programming. #FuckPutin https://t.co/q8Kv8LpJek pic.twitter.com/oa2wUwIIUY

— Chris Barrus (@quartzcity) February 27, 2022

Another Eastern European pirate out there is broadcasting Sting’s “Russians” over and over. https://t.co/brDdsNtRaq pic.twitter.com/FvGm57yC2d

— Chris Barrus (@quartzcity) February 27, 2022

A couple days ago, someone posted a picture of a captured Russian army radio on social media. Someone quickly ID'ed it as an off-the-shelf, unencrypted Baofeng transceiver from China (you can get them on Amazon for $100) and since then Russian military frequencies have been flooded with pervasive and unrelenting pirate transmissions, broadcasts, sound effects, “Fuck Putin” chants, etc. My fave is the one pirate that’s busting in and flooding the frequency with pig noises:
https://soundcloud.com/frenchbloke/websdr-recording-start-2022-02-28t10-32-36z-79333khz

It hasn't stopped either

Still cannot get over that Russian military HF frequency being overrun with pig noises. 10/10 full spectrum shitposting.

— Maid POLadin 🎪 💙💛 (@tacticalmaid) March 1, 2022

shout out to the solo guitarist absolutely shredding over the 7933 Russian military frequency

— frenchbloke (@frenchbloke) February 28, 2022

Anyway, as I've been speed-reading Gary Lachman's The Return Of Holy Russia in preparation of my pivot to Russian Apocalyptic Mysticism expert I'm going back to shutting the fuck up.

That Fiona Hill interview posted above is pretty sobering.

Ugh

https://i.imgur.com/YUBd0BW.png

Nothing is likely to beat her saying that Poland has surprisingly good sushi for a landlocked country.

Lot of ostensibly serious people out there casually throwing around the idea of a no-fly zone with absolutely no concept of NATO or Article 5.

In light of the ongoing war conflict in Ukraine, the International Judo Federation announces the suspension of Mr. Vladimir Putin’s status as Honorary President and Ambassador of the International Judo Federation.https://t.co/QQDZbF6rfd

— Judo (@Judo) February 27, 2022

Barbaric Russian missile strikes on the central Freedom Square and residential districts of Kharkiv. Putin is unable to break Ukraine down. He commits more war crimes out of fury, murders innocent civilians. The world can and must do more. INCREASE PRESSURE, ISOLATE RUSSIA FULLY! pic.twitter.com/tN4VHF1A9n

— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) March 1, 2022

An Indian student was killed in the Kharkiv shelling which might put some domestic pressure on Modi to speak up a bit.

Gotta borrow Ned's "my brain died" for this reported absolute tonedeafness, which I assume won't automatically make worldwide news (my translation):

RUSSIA CONCERNED ABOUT NORWEGIAN-DANISH RELATIONSHIP

Russia's embassy in Denmark expresses worry about the relationship between Norway and Denmark, DR reports.

The background for the Russian concern is a proposal to rename the street in Copenhagen where the Russian embassy is located. Danish politicians wish to rename the street from Kristiania Street to Ukraine Street.

– The Russian embassy would like to remind that Kristiania Street carries the former name of Norway's capital, and symbolizes historical ties and good relations between Denmark and Norway, the embassy writes on Twitter.

The scenario Fiona Hill sketches out in the Politico piece linked to above sounds pretty plausible to me. Putin can and will take Ukraine, but he can't hold onto to it, so he'll just fuck it up, there'll be a Russian fiefdom in the east, a rump Ukraine in the west, continually fighting in a hot or cold war, continually unstable so it can't really join or be an effective member/ally of NATO or the EU.

― Zelda Zonk, Tuesday, 1 March 2022 04:50 (eight hours ago) link

The longer I have to let this sink in the more horrible it seems. An embarrassed and frustrated Russia increasingly hating and lashing out at the occupied population, endless attrition on both sides. Occupation is horrible, and there’s nothing romantic about insurgency. Longer it drags on, more opportunity for something to draw in another European power. I don’t think Ukraine would be better off just accepting Russian rule because they clearly don’t think so. I don’t think this is just NATO using Ukraine as proxy, Ukrainians clearly and very badly do not want to be subjugated by Russia. But I am having a hard time seeing another way this turns out. I hope there is some lesser option that Putin can claim as a victory to save face, although I imagine he will just build up toward another invasion in the future and that the expansionism won’t end.

I thought the Fiona Hill interview - which ran a couple of days ago, right? - was indeed sobering, but also sometimes a little full of shit, especially when it came to the threat of nuclear weapons, which has become its clickbait headline/scare quote. Stuff like this graf:

He’s already used a nuclear weapon in some respects. Russian operatives poisoned Alexander Litvinenko with radioactive polonium and turned him into a human dirty bomb and polonium was spread all around London at every spot that poor man visited. He died a horrible death as a result.

Sorry, no, poisoning an enemy with nuclear material is not the same as using a nuclear weapon, nor was he turned into a "human dirty bomb." And then she pivots to nerve agents. We already know that Putin has no problem killing his enemies in horrible ways, but so far it has been targeted and somewhat fussy. There's a big difference between that and shooting a missile that indiscriminately kills hundreds or thousands or more. Not that I'm not scared he would use a nuclear weapon, just that Hill comes off a little cavalier in her confidence.

Of course, Hill is in the end flying as blind as the rest, too, and there are some frustrating loose ends to her arguments. She says that sanctions are not enough, but she said this right before historically massive sanctions kicked in. She keeps saying that this deserves a "major" international response, "larger than NATO," and (rightly, imo) comparing the situation to WWII, but falls short of offering any specific recommendations. She implies Putin is a little nuts but then emphasizes his methodical long game. She is super smart and knows more than most, but I kind of already want a follow-up.

Meanwhile, a new Kofman thought

Looking at the Russian operation so far, they're having tremendous problems with logistics and communications. The whole effort seems shambolic. Some structural, some probably more specific to this operation, but will be doing a separate thread on those problems later.

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 1, 2022

Ngl, I don't believe a word that Hill or anyone like her says.

a proposal to rename the street in Copenhagen where the Russian embassy is located. Danish politicians wish to rename the street from Kristiania Street to Ukraine Street.

what's tone deaf? in the mid-eighties glasgow renamed st. george's place - where the south african embassy had offices - nelson mandela place

Assuming the Russian embassy's reaction is what's being described as tone deaf, tho I'd say they know exactly what tone they're striking.

ah ok

Ngl, I don't believe a word that Hill or anyone like her says.

― we need outrage! we need dicks!! (the table is the table), Tuesday, 1 March 2022 14:12 (thirty minutes ago) link

Why? I know nothing about her so genuinely wondering.

She seems highly capable of making wry judgments about other people's fuckups, but I don't have enough expertise to understand whether her dour predictions are reasonable and made in good faith. I tend to reflexively distrust "we wouldn't be in this mess if you'd listened to me" and "here's what'll happen" type commentators but that'd just my baggage. She did work for Trump.

Just had a chance to ask a question to @BorisJohnson https://t.co/4ee6eXJj6g

— Daria Kaleniuk (@dkaleniuk) March 1, 2022

I understand being skeptical of anyone who’s spent a career in the foreign policy establishment, we all know what kinds of bullshit they’ve sold us over the years. But at the same time, there is some value in just the plain old subject matter expertise of people who have spent years and years studying certain issues in places in people. I certainly wouldn’t put any ideas I have about what the fuck is going on in Ukraine up against Fiona Hill’s.

AND places AND people I mean

Mr Telecom (and anyone else interested in Russian Apocalyptic thinking), have you read Timothy Snyder's "Road to Unfreedom"?

what's tone deaf?

Should have been clearer: the Russian apparent idea that this would bother Norway at all. Could just be a bit of trolling, obv.

regardless of how Putin & the Russian military thought things were gonna go or what sanctions they'd have to deal with can we at least conclude that the propaganda war is going very badly for them? like I live in a country that tried to "both sides" Nazi rallies and permanently separating kids from their parents, and even here you have an overwhelming majority rejecting the Trump/Tucker/Ingraham lines. Russia's allies aren't condoning this, it looks like the vast majority of their citizens disagree with it, and every country on Earth seems to be telling them to go fuck themselves if they need anything. don't Putin's goals here depend on him being remaining popular in Russia at least, just as he was virtually every other time he tried this?

I suspect wishcasting in a lot of this stuff, but still

BREAKING: U.S. believes Russia has committed more than 80 percent of pre-staged troops into Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official.

Russia has not been able to advance on Kyiv due to fuel & sustainment problems. "Not only are they running out of gas, they're running out of food"

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 1, 2022

BREAKING-U.S. assesses that morale is flagging in some Russian units, and that some Russian units have surrendered without a fight in Ukraine, a senior US defense official says

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 1, 2022

It's that 80 percent claim that kinda sticks with me -- building up that amount of forces and then having to commit the vast majority of it within not even quite a week without obvious controlling success seems less than ideal.