ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

"Putin, accusing the West of “aggressive statements,” puts nuclear forces on alert." (North Korea -- not wrong)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlizCbfd9Pc (want to forget)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn3GWiW-2eM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn3GWiW-2eM

Sorry:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qahee9DxFQM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXuRe0GkXyA

xxp

I had the pleasure of visiting Kyiv back in 2015. Ate some unexpectedly great meals and had an overall blast.

Some sobering analysis by Michael Kofman, countering the proliferation of optimistic takes. Quick summary: Russia tried something, it didn't work, they will adjust. The adjustment is not going to be pretty.

Long thread about how I think the first 96 hours have gone, still very early/incomplete impressions. The initial Russian operation was premised on terrible assumptions about Ukraine’s ability & will to fight, and an unworkable concept of operations. Moscow badly miscalculated. 1/

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 28, 2022

Never been that far east, but toured Poland and Hungary and whooo boy did i eat well!
xpost

I take the point of the Kofman thread, no doubt. Yet what's notable is the sheer compactness of what's suddenly happened and how, and by what means, in terms of PR, which Kofman acknowledges but maybe should spend a hair more time on. This thread, long as hell, is of interest:

Why has Ukraine been so successful at information warfare/propaganda vs the supposed Russian masters of it?

A thread 🧵 of 10 persuasion messaging themes working for them:

— Peter W. Singer (@peterwsinger) February 28, 2022

Arguably this complements rather than negates Kofman's thread but in doing this so incredibly well, Ukraine has essentially leveraged a massive response not just in terms of public/private action but of emotional investment, where a week ago that was hardly the case anywhere outside the two countries in particular -- a remarkable consequence of the networked/social media world in large part. If the adjustment isn't pretty then guess who gets to be even more of the villains.

But that all said, it's the impact OF that emotional investment where things can get tricky. I found this thread from a mutual Twitter follow off in rural Michigan of particular interest:

while i do laugh with and stand in awe of various moments of defiance on the part of Ukraine that are being passed around on social media--i am also dismayed at how easily many in the US adopt that defiance as their own (on both sides of political spectrum)--

— RustBelt Rebel (@RustBeltRebel) February 28, 2022

^^ extremely otm

twitter now reporting thermobaric bombs, not good

credible? Twitter had similar reports yesterday.

Certainly a major achievement to get so many across the globe emotionally invested in a country they knew nothing about a few days ago. But ultimately Putin has overwhelming firepower, manpower, materiel etc, and he's got nothing to lose: he's an international pariah and that's not going to change. He'll 'win', ie flatten Kyiv and take it - and then spend months and years losing, like the US in Iraq, Afghanistan etc

Oh yeah Ned RBR is a fave!!

I'm not sure I *get* that twitter thread tbh. This is a fight for democracy. Not perfect democracy, not the ideal of democracy, but for an actual democracy with all of its warts and downsides like every democracy. A democracy as opposed to the autocracy that the invading power wants to impose. We also have a highly imperfect, warty democracy here, one that doesn't live up to its promises or treat all people equally. But it's still not autocracy, still not comparable to living in a state ruled by a brutal Putin-installed autocrat. In fact, the leader of the invading power has openly called this a fight against democracy, including against the US's democracy. If you want to talk about sheltered Americans who don't really know what ___ means, I don't think we know what it means to live in an autocracy either.

twitter now reporting thermobaric bombs, not good

credible? Twitter had similar reports yesterday.

Russia used a thermobaric weapon (vacuum bomb) on Monday in its invasion of Ukraine, said Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova.

"They used the vacuum bomb today, which is actually prohibited by the Geneva convention"

Here's background:https://t.co/r46CNrKaN5

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) February 28, 2022

ugh

here's the related article:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-ambassador-us-says-russia-used-vacuum-bomb-monday-2022-02-28/

I apologize if this has been posted already- a twitter feed tracking private jets of Russian oligarchs: https://twitter.com/RUOligarchJets

why if Russia has launched a thermobaric weapon in Ukraine can we only read about it by registering with Reuters?

War crimes.

I guess the answer might be that some outlets are waiting for additional confirmation. I think people generally imagine huge weapons like the MOAB the US used in Afghanistan or the FOAB that Russia has been developing, which would be very obvious and easy to verify if used in Ukraine, but most thermobaric weapons are stuff like Hellfire II missiles and ‘bunker busters’ used by the US and U.K. which would be a lot harder.

sorry, i didn't realize reuters had a paywall!

it's more a "register for free", I guess I've read too many articles

this guy gives a lot of detail and context in his vids
https://www.tiktok.com/@cpscott15/video/7069893092219866414?_d=secCgYIASAHKAESPgo85SXvdu6gtL4Kvv6rsDqDdykjBqNS%2FEEL%2FmyioNALCDZtbpLkUklZkF%2Fw5QTU0Hiie1UE2DegcD2sxcyCGgA%3D&_r=1&is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1&language=en&sec_uid=MS4wLjABAAAA4jnDB_I2RkWXkodQt9nPIyVhUZfjU5PFH1Nu6V8Dxns6qrvuunFWFcQeNLZmZQzA&sec_user_id=MS4wLjABAAAA6z8M9dM5waujk9wiXjpydnFGAKJcOavYbPmCGM_uwA_FFw5MablGktAf9M_lAGsB&share_app_id=1233&share_author_id=6922312645967168517&share_link_id=d5c8ff9e-abf0-4737-a5f6-755cf941b8ee&source=h5_m×tamp=1646096759&u_code=dfc831l139480k&ugbiz_name=Account&user_id=6892962754279277574&utm_campaign=client_share&utm_medium=android&utm_source=copy

not clicking on that link

sorrry i don't really know how ticktock works?
here's something more normal & very informative
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-11

Meanwhile, in the grassroots:
This white nationalist, pro-Putin-but-I-might-be-joeking, a longtime local loser finally brought into AZ Legislature by Gov. Doucey, provides lead-in to rally what got even Kevin McCarthy a little bit pissed at Marjorie Taylor Greene's participation, rally pretty vividly referenced here:

..Rogers had the gall to defend Nick Fuentes
During her Friday speech to the white nationalists, Rogers fantasized about building "gallows" to hang her political enemies and lauded Fuentes, who has warned that America needs to protect its “white demographic core” and boasted about the Jan. 6 insurrection.
“Now, they’re going and saying,‘Vladimir Putin is Adolf Hitler,’ as if that isn’t a good thing,” he said, before laughing and adding, “Oops, I shouldn’t have said that.”

Rogers, meanwhile, speaking remotely from Arizona, praised Fuentes and longed for the good old days when “we could say the craziest stuff and people would just laugh and not take offense, because it was simply light-hearted.”
“I truly respect Nick because he’s the most persecuted man in America,” she said, referring to the fact that he’s been banned from most social media platforms.

For good reason.

Fortunately, there are still a few Republicans – so few, in fact, that I can count them on one hand – who are horrified by their fellow party members who act as if the bile spouted by Fuentes and his fellow white nationalists is somehow acceptable.
https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2022/02/27/where-sen-mitt-romney-sees-morons-gov-doug-ducey-sees-allies/6969832001/

Oops, left out the part where he led a round of applause for Putin.

As Tucker Carlson said recently, "Vladimir Putin has never called me a racist."

Certainly a major achievement to get so many across the globe emotionally invested in a country they knew nothing about a few days ago.

No lie

👍

It also helps that the invader is deliberately and openly threatening the US and Europe.

So uh, what is Putin's plan at this point? He can take Ukraine but it doesn't seem like he can hold it, right?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzBxFH_hEwA

xp Wonder if we're going to have worries about invasion and white refugee porn on here, like somebody showed up on the in-progress Katrina thread, worrying that us participants were going down the slippery slope to disaster porn. Not really a question.

right?

There are plausible scenarios that play out in many ways, and that is one of them, but not the most likely one imo

A 17-mile convoy of military vehicles approaching DC I mean Kyiv was reported recently---I suppose, whatever else is happening, he means to use the city at least as a bargaining chip, for some deal he can renege on at the right time, also install a puppet government of sorts.

Right, people seem to think that a puppet government was his original plan. But that seems like a ludicrous idea given what we've seen of Ukrainian resistance, no? You would need an occupying army to keep a puppet government in place. And the 150k soldiers the Russians have assembled wouldn't be enough.

think that's right and worried about what plan b is

Make that 40 miles long:

40 mile convoy en route. The world is watching. #Ukraine https://t.co/zDVuRdMjc9

— G Morishige (@gmorishige) March 1, 2022

p much praying that that's just intimidation during negotiations and not intention

Right, people seem to think that a puppet government was his original plan. But that seems like a ludicrous idea given what we've seen of Ukrainian resistance, no?

I dunno. Wield enough "liberation" propaganda, especially if it's for a cause you yourself see as utterly and obviously righteous (the restitution of Great Russia!), and I suppose you might underestimate resistance among people you assume is really of your own, if somewhat led astray?

(the last clause is a bit ambiguous, for clarity it should read "even if they have been somewhat led astray?".)

Isa Akayev, commander of the "Crimea" volunteer battalion, addressed the Muslims of #Russia. pic.twitter.com/OefoxK3zId

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) February 28, 2022

hmm sorry i thought that was the subtitled version i saw before. i apologize.

There's a translation in the replies.

cant tell if this has been posted already, sobering interview w Dr Fiona Hill on Putin

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

I thought this was really interesting -- "In just 72 hours, Europe overhauled its entire post-Cold War relationship with Russia"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/28/europe-new-era-russia-ukraine/

uh remove the dr there xpost

Since I brought up white nationalist Putin etc fans (Before Greene’s remarks, Fuentes asked the audience to give “a round of applause” for Russia during its brutal invasion of Ukraine, which prompted a chant of “Putin” from the crowd in support of Moscow’s leader). might as well put in this, though tangential to war: How Ukraine Split The GOP https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2022/02/28/how-ukraine-split-the-gop-00012394?nname=politico-nightly&nid=00000170-c000-da87-af78-e185fa700000&nrid=00000172-4d9a-d3ba-a9f3-6f9e04a20000&nlid=2670445