ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

The sanctions should disappear overnight for that very reason. There needs to be an out.

i agree but i expect russia will be treated as a pariah as long as putin's government remains in charge

one of the russian political observers said that he was reminded about a story putin tells in his autobiography about a rat he cornered in the kitchen who attacked him, how this made such an impression on him, that powerful urge to survive when cornered

.. which is one of the reasons it feels different this time, there are multiple angles he could use to his advantage which has been the game he was playing so far, but this time he doesn’t seem to be interested in pursuing any of them, unless there is some even longer game in play

one of the russian political observers said that he was reminded about a story putin tells in his autobiography about a rat he cornered in the kitchen who attacked him, how this made such an impression on him, that powerful urge to survive when cornered

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ery7sRNkfx0/VvUAY9k_zkI/AAAAAAAA04w/G3k0nVWrLMYdW5GL_Ypbius1go9eY0Yww/s1600/Vasyl%2BRATS%2B-%2BPanini%2BSitcker%2BUSSR%2B-%2BEuro%2B1988.png

... from Ukraine, of course!

I don't know. I don't think Putin is cornered. There's a tendency to exaggerate how meaningful these latest sanctions have been. I don't think Russia losing a few percentage points off its GDP growth is going to make Putin feel like he has no option but calling down the end of days on the planet Earth. Or if he does, he was so crazy he could have done it for any reason.

one of the russian political observers said that he was reminded about a story putin tells in his autobiography about a rat he cornered in the kitchen who attacked him, how this made such an impression on him, that powerful urge to survive when cornered

i don’t think he’s cornered in the sense that he’d rather take everybody down with him but more that his bluff got called out and now he’s forced to maintain the bluff by whatever means necessary

Where is the bluff? I don't see any bluff here. As far as I can tell he is going to proceed with his plan.

i doubt he expected such a strong and unified response. but who knows, maybe it was part of his plan as i mentioned before

Its a strong and unified response, but there are still major holes in these sanctions, e.g petroleum exports.

no argument there. so the question is: why the need for such a strongly worded challenge? why “we’re putting our nuclear forces on high alert” etc?

Thats just standard stuff, tbh. I know there's a poor track record of using the phrase "saber rattling" on this thread, but to me that is nuclear saber rattling.

Economic effects being felt from top down?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/two-top-russian-billionaires-speak-out-against-invasion-of-ukraine
I mean, even Switzerland says no longer neutral---

Not my bailiwick but I gather this means something

OUCH! MSCI says removing #Russia from indexes "natural next step." More than $920bn is in EM ETFs alone. Russia has a weighting of 2.7% in EM ETFs. In other words, ~$24.5bn would automatically flow out of Russian equities. https://t.co/pPdQsgstdr pic.twitter.com/yfLvtkDl4I

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) February 28, 2022

BP to exit Rosneft stake worth $25 billion
Pressure on other energy companies to follow suit
https://www.reuters.com/business/bp-exit-opens-new-front-wests-campaign-against-russia-2022-02-27/

monaco is also joining the sanctions and will be freezing russian assets

Ruble now one cent on the dollar, "ordinary Russians" make bank runs:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russians-line-banks-prices-rise-sanctions-83153869

I feel like a real sign of how things are going will be when the "help me get my 10.5 million dollars out" emails stop coming from Africa and start coming from Russia.

that woman commandeering the armored car is the best thing I've seen in a long time

ok, i need to see this i guess.

Her laugh at the end made me tear up and go "fuck yeahhhhh!" at the same time.

same here! She's a badass

Gotta be honest - Eastern Europe has never been high on my list of international places to visit. But if it and we survive this moment, I may have to visit Ukraine on general principle.

Apparently it's not actually current to the invasion, it's just instructions on how to drive the vehicle. Still awesome.

"Putin, accusing the West of “aggressive statements,” puts nuclear forces on alert." (North Korea -- not wrong)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlizCbfd9Pc (want to forget)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn3GWiW-2eM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn3GWiW-2eM

Sorry:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qahee9DxFQM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXuRe0GkXyA

xxp

I had the pleasure of visiting Kyiv back in 2015. Ate some unexpectedly great meals and had an overall blast.

Some sobering analysis by Michael Kofman, countering the proliferation of optimistic takes. Quick summary: Russia tried something, it didn't work, they will adjust. The adjustment is not going to be pretty.

Long thread about how I think the first 96 hours have gone, still very early/incomplete impressions. The initial Russian operation was premised on terrible assumptions about Ukraine’s ability & will to fight, and an unworkable concept of operations. Moscow badly miscalculated. 1/

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 28, 2022

Never been that far east, but toured Poland and Hungary and whooo boy did i eat well!
xpost

I take the point of the Kofman thread, no doubt. Yet what's notable is the sheer compactness of what's suddenly happened and how, and by what means, in terms of PR, which Kofman acknowledges but maybe should spend a hair more time on. This thread, long as hell, is of interest:

Why has Ukraine been so successful at information warfare/propaganda vs the supposed Russian masters of it?

A thread 🧵 of 10 persuasion messaging themes working for them:

— Peter W. Singer (@peterwsinger) February 28, 2022

Arguably this complements rather than negates Kofman's thread but in doing this so incredibly well, Ukraine has essentially leveraged a massive response not just in terms of public/private action but of emotional investment, where a week ago that was hardly the case anywhere outside the two countries in particular -- a remarkable consequence of the networked/social media world in large part. If the adjustment isn't pretty then guess who gets to be even more of the villains.

But that all said, it's the impact OF that emotional investment where things can get tricky. I found this thread from a mutual Twitter follow off in rural Michigan of particular interest:

while i do laugh with and stand in awe of various moments of defiance on the part of Ukraine that are being passed around on social media--i am also dismayed at how easily many in the US adopt that defiance as their own (on both sides of political spectrum)--

— RustBelt Rebel (@RustBeltRebel) February 28, 2022

^^ extremely otm

twitter now reporting thermobaric bombs, not good

credible? Twitter had similar reports yesterday.

Certainly a major achievement to get so many across the globe emotionally invested in a country they knew nothing about a few days ago. But ultimately Putin has overwhelming firepower, manpower, materiel etc, and he's got nothing to lose: he's an international pariah and that's not going to change. He'll 'win', ie flatten Kyiv and take it - and then spend months and years losing, like the US in Iraq, Afghanistan etc

Oh yeah Ned RBR is a fave!!

I'm not sure I *get* that twitter thread tbh. This is a fight for democracy. Not perfect democracy, not the ideal of democracy, but for an actual democracy with all of its warts and downsides like every democracy. A democracy as opposed to the autocracy that the invading power wants to impose. We also have a highly imperfect, warty democracy here, one that doesn't live up to its promises or treat all people equally. But it's still not autocracy, still not comparable to living in a state ruled by a brutal Putin-installed autocrat. In fact, the leader of the invading power has openly called this a fight against democracy, including against the US's democracy. If you want to talk about sheltered Americans who don't really know what ___ means, I don't think we know what it means to live in an autocracy either.

twitter now reporting thermobaric bombs, not good

credible? Twitter had similar reports yesterday.

Russia used a thermobaric weapon (vacuum bomb) on Monday in its invasion of Ukraine, said Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova.

"They used the vacuum bomb today, which is actually prohibited by the Geneva convention"

Here's background:https://t.co/r46CNrKaN5

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) February 28, 2022

ugh

here's the related article:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-ambassador-us-says-russia-used-vacuum-bomb-monday-2022-02-28/

I apologize if this has been posted already- a twitter feed tracking private jets of Russian oligarchs: https://twitter.com/RUOligarchJets

why if Russia has launched a thermobaric weapon in Ukraine can we only read about it by registering with Reuters?

War crimes.

I guess the answer might be that some outlets are waiting for additional confirmation. I think people generally imagine huge weapons like the MOAB the US used in Afghanistan or the FOAB that Russia has been developing, which would be very obvious and easy to verify if used in Ukraine, but most thermobaric weapons are stuff like Hellfire II missiles and ‘bunker busters’ used by the US and U.K. which would be a lot harder.

sorry, i didn't realize reuters had a paywall!

it's more a "register for free", I guess I've read too many articles

this guy gives a lot of detail and context in his vids
https://www.tiktok.com/@cpscott15/video/7069893092219866414?_d=secCgYIASAHKAESPgo85SXvdu6gtL4Kvv6rsDqDdykjBqNS%2FEEL%2FmyioNALCDZtbpLkUklZkF%2Fw5QTU0Hiie1UE2DegcD2sxcyCGgA%3D&_r=1&is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1&language=en&sec_uid=MS4wLjABAAAA4jnDB_I2RkWXkodQt9nPIyVhUZfjU5PFH1Nu6V8Dxns6qrvuunFWFcQeNLZmZQzA&sec_user_id=MS4wLjABAAAA6z8M9dM5waujk9wiXjpydnFGAKJcOavYbPmCGM_uwA_FFw5MablGktAf9M_lAGsB&share_app_id=1233&share_author_id=6922312645967168517&share_link_id=d5c8ff9e-abf0-4737-a5f6-755cf941b8ee&source=h5_m×tamp=1646096759&u_code=dfc831l139480k&ugbiz_name=Account&user_id=6892962754279277574&utm_campaign=client_share&utm_medium=android&utm_source=copy

not clicking on that link