ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

how to tik tok: Ukraine edition

The future is a very weird place. Ukrainians are uploading videos on TikTok about how to drive abandoned or captured Russian military vehicles. pic.twitter.com/ElE7lxoBV8

— Read The Dispossessed by Ursula K. LeGuin (@JoshuaPotash) February 28, 2022

Official. FIFA and UEFA suspend Russian clubs and national teams from all competitions. 🚨

“Football is fully united here and in full solidarity with all the people affected in Ukraine”, statement says.

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) February 28, 2022

I love the implication that you can learn to drive a tank in 30 seconds.

BP and Shell have announced they're leaving the country. Seems kinda big.

"The country" being Russia, to clarify.

Was wondering.

Had to assume but...

Resisting temptation to post video of a certain Canned Heat song.

well, it's something:

Finland will provide weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, the country’s prime minister Sanna Marin said.

The shipment will include 2,500 assault rifles, 150,000 bullets, 1,500 anti-tank weapons and 70,000 food packages, Finland’s defence minister Antti Kaikkonen added.

First Switzerland and now...

(Reuters) - Monaco, an international hub often favoured by wealthy Russians, will also proceed with freezing assets and imposing sanctions on Russians in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, said a statement by the Monaco Royal Palace.

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) February 28, 2022

OK so pronouncing Kiev as Kyiv seems to the thing to do on British TV.

I guess they read https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/how-to-pronounce-and-spell-kyiv-kiev-ukraine-and-why-it-matters

Yes, I knew Kiev was the Russian name.

Ya, I’ve been trying to pronounce it as “keev” and also not say “the” in front of Ukraine.

i still feel there is a distinct difference in putin’s behaviour now vs before
some of the things mentioned in that twitter thread were small change for him, now it feels like he’s going all in

well it is essentially the first time he's found himself in a losing position and I guess the world doesn't know how he's going to react to that. I don't know what the off-ramp is at this point. even if he pulls out immediately it isn't going to help much, it's not like the sanctions are gonna disappear overnight and it would puncture a massive hole in Russia's tough guy image, a war which they are certainly losing at the moment. I know nukes seem unlikely at this point but Putin is cornered pretty hard isn't he? like how does this play out in the coming weeks?

The sanctions should disappear overnight for that very reason. There needs to be an out.

i agree but i expect russia will be treated as a pariah as long as putin's government remains in charge

one of the russian political observers said that he was reminded about a story putin tells in his autobiography about a rat he cornered in the kitchen who attacked him, how this made such an impression on him, that powerful urge to survive when cornered

.. which is one of the reasons it feels different this time, there are multiple angles he could use to his advantage which has been the game he was playing so far, but this time he doesn’t seem to be interested in pursuing any of them, unless there is some even longer game in play

one of the russian political observers said that he was reminded about a story putin tells in his autobiography about a rat he cornered in the kitchen who attacked him, how this made such an impression on him, that powerful urge to survive when cornered

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ery7sRNkfx0/VvUAY9k_zkI/AAAAAAAA04w/G3k0nVWrLMYdW5GL_Ypbius1go9eY0Yww/s1600/Vasyl%2BRATS%2B-%2BPanini%2BSitcker%2BUSSR%2B-%2BEuro%2B1988.png

... from Ukraine, of course!

I don't know. I don't think Putin is cornered. There's a tendency to exaggerate how meaningful these latest sanctions have been. I don't think Russia losing a few percentage points off its GDP growth is going to make Putin feel like he has no option but calling down the end of days on the planet Earth. Or if he does, he was so crazy he could have done it for any reason.

one of the russian political observers said that he was reminded about a story putin tells in his autobiography about a rat he cornered in the kitchen who attacked him, how this made such an impression on him, that powerful urge to survive when cornered

i don’t think he’s cornered in the sense that he’d rather take everybody down with him but more that his bluff got called out and now he’s forced to maintain the bluff by whatever means necessary

Where is the bluff? I don't see any bluff here. As far as I can tell he is going to proceed with his plan.

i doubt he expected such a strong and unified response. but who knows, maybe it was part of his plan as i mentioned before

Its a strong and unified response, but there are still major holes in these sanctions, e.g petroleum exports.

no argument there. so the question is: why the need for such a strongly worded challenge? why “we’re putting our nuclear forces on high alert” etc?

Thats just standard stuff, tbh. I know there's a poor track record of using the phrase "saber rattling" on this thread, but to me that is nuclear saber rattling.

Economic effects being felt from top down?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/two-top-russian-billionaires-speak-out-against-invasion-of-ukraine
I mean, even Switzerland says no longer neutral---

Not my bailiwick but I gather this means something

OUCH! MSCI says removing #Russia from indexes "natural next step." More than $920bn is in EM ETFs alone. Russia has a weighting of 2.7% in EM ETFs. In other words, ~$24.5bn would automatically flow out of Russian equities. https://t.co/pPdQsgstdr pic.twitter.com/yfLvtkDl4I

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) February 28, 2022

BP to exit Rosneft stake worth $25 billion
Pressure on other energy companies to follow suit
https://www.reuters.com/business/bp-exit-opens-new-front-wests-campaign-against-russia-2022-02-27/

monaco is also joining the sanctions and will be freezing russian assets

Ruble now one cent on the dollar, "ordinary Russians" make bank runs:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russians-line-banks-prices-rise-sanctions-83153869

I feel like a real sign of how things are going will be when the "help me get my 10.5 million dollars out" emails stop coming from Africa and start coming from Russia.

that woman commandeering the armored car is the best thing I've seen in a long time

ok, i need to see this i guess.

Her laugh at the end made me tear up and go "fuck yeahhhhh!" at the same time.

same here! She's a badass

Gotta be honest - Eastern Europe has never been high on my list of international places to visit. But if it and we survive this moment, I may have to visit Ukraine on general principle.

Apparently it's not actually current to the invasion, it's just instructions on how to drive the vehicle. Still awesome.

"Putin, accusing the West of “aggressive statements,” puts nuclear forces on alert." (North Korea -- not wrong)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlizCbfd9Pc (want to forget)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn3GWiW-2eM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn3GWiW-2eM

Sorry:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qahee9DxFQM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXuRe0GkXyA

xxp

I had the pleasure of visiting Kyiv back in 2015. Ate some unexpectedly great meals and had an overall blast.

Some sobering analysis by Michael Kofman, countering the proliferation of optimistic takes. Quick summary: Russia tried something, it didn't work, they will adjust. The adjustment is not going to be pretty.

Long thread about how I think the first 96 hours have gone, still very early/incomplete impressions. The initial Russian operation was premised on terrible assumptions about Ukraine’s ability & will to fight, and an unworkable concept of operations. Moscow badly miscalculated. 1/

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 28, 2022

Never been that far east, but toured Poland and Hungary and whooo boy did i eat well!
xpost

I take the point of the Kofman thread, no doubt. Yet what's notable is the sheer compactness of what's suddenly happened and how, and by what means, in terms of PR, which Kofman acknowledges but maybe should spend a hair more time on. This thread, long as hell, is of interest:

Why has Ukraine been so successful at information warfare/propaganda vs the supposed Russian masters of it?

A thread 🧵 of 10 persuasion messaging themes working for them:

— Peter W. Singer (@peterwsinger) February 28, 2022

Arguably this complements rather than negates Kofman's thread but in doing this so incredibly well, Ukraine has essentially leveraged a massive response not just in terms of public/private action but of emotional investment, where a week ago that was hardly the case anywhere outside the two countries in particular -- a remarkable consequence of the networked/social media world in large part. If the adjustment isn't pretty then guess who gets to be even more of the villains.

But that all said, it's the impact OF that emotional investment where things can get tricky. I found this thread from a mutual Twitter follow off in rural Michigan of particular interest:

while i do laugh with and stand in awe of various moments of defiance on the part of Ukraine that are being passed around on social media--i am also dismayed at how easily many in the US adopt that defiance as their own (on both sides of political spectrum)--

— RustBelt Rebel (@RustBeltRebel) February 28, 2022

^^ extremely otm

twitter now reporting thermobaric bombs, not good

credible? Twitter had similar reports yesterday.