ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

That's so sad.

Last message: Mom I'm in Ukraine. Here we have real war. We are attacking everyone, even civilians. They told us they would meet us with flowers, but they block our forces and Don't let us go further. They call us fascists. Mom it's really hard here.

Sad whether it's fake or not, tbh. This is all so unnecessary.

all these photos of putin sitting at one end of a table and his generals/ministers sitting 30 feet away are so weird and pathetic

I'm wary of reading too much into this, it could just as easily be "get me a ridiculous table, lets make them think I'm losing it"

This idea he's suddenly irrational and no longer cautious doesn't ring all that true, there's lot of evidence he goes for risky bets, going right back to the way he came to power in the first place

Reading a lot of stuff that rings true, and then something that counters it all that also rings true, on just about every angle, so its kind of disorienting

Russia's army seems to have bungled the opening, but from my amateur armchair perspective it still seems at least 50% likely that their overwhelming advantages will allow them to eventually prevail, at least in the sense of capturing the major cities and forcing the Ukrainian defense into an insurgency mode. Yes, its a major reversal for EU countries to step up and supply lethal aid to an active war zone, but its not clear to me if the on-the-ground impact will match the symbolic impact. Also, I think its easy to overrate how quickly these sanctions will impact the real Russian economy. Financial markets always react quickly, but for the concerns of the average Russian, it may be a while before we start to see the effects, and we probably won't see effects to the extent of people not being able to buy groceries or put gas in their cars. Yes, some higher unemployment, some higher than usual inflation, but maybe not quite the economic Armageddon that we are hearing about.

even if it’s just a covid protocol, it’s nice that the visitors are welcome to give each other their germs as long as vlad’s clear

xp oh i don’t think it’s a sign of him ‘losing it’ — i think it’s a sign of him eternally being, as someone said, ‘a 5-foot-6 guy who tells people he’s 5-foot-7’

A piece I don't really understand is whether the economic sanctions have any impact on military logistics - is there enough short term impact to make refueling and supply lines more difficult? If not, my fear is that Putin won't see any choice but to keep stepping up aggression, unable to back down, and eventually the Russian army's superior force would defeat Ukraine. Then of course Russia is mired in an untenable occupation with a likely prolonged insurgency supported by western powers, but that situation still feels like a tragedy for everyone, hard to feel good about it. I don't think Putin can emerge from this stronger, but in the meantime I fear a lot more destruction.

Good thread on Putin's history of taking risky gambles:

There are many people right now who are arguing that Putin has somehow changed/lost it/gone mad and is not the man he used to be.

I couldn't disagree more. They have simply not been paying attention. This is who he has *always* been 🧵

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) February 28, 2022

beyond fuel, it will definitely effect their ability to produce new weapons/vehicles in oder to replace what is getting destroyed. raw materials, electronics and just buying power is going to be much more limited for them going forward. i am certainly skeptical of the numbers we are hearing from Ukraine – but Russia is definitely losing their fair share of equipment there.
xpost

Anyway, Ukraine has just applied for EU membership, per various reports.

how to tik tok: Ukraine edition

The future is a very weird place. Ukrainians are uploading videos on TikTok about how to drive abandoned or captured Russian military vehicles. pic.twitter.com/ElE7lxoBV8

— Read The Dispossessed by Ursula K. LeGuin (@JoshuaPotash) February 28, 2022

Official. FIFA and UEFA suspend Russian clubs and national teams from all competitions. 🚨

“Football is fully united here and in full solidarity with all the people affected in Ukraine”, statement says.

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) February 28, 2022

I love the implication that you can learn to drive a tank in 30 seconds.

BP and Shell have announced they're leaving the country. Seems kinda big.

"The country" being Russia, to clarify.

Was wondering.

Had to assume but...

Resisting temptation to post video of a certain Canned Heat song.

well, it's something:

Finland will provide weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, the country’s prime minister Sanna Marin said.

The shipment will include 2,500 assault rifles, 150,000 bullets, 1,500 anti-tank weapons and 70,000 food packages, Finland’s defence minister Antti Kaikkonen added.

First Switzerland and now...

(Reuters) - Monaco, an international hub often favoured by wealthy Russians, will also proceed with freezing assets and imposing sanctions on Russians in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, said a statement by the Monaco Royal Palace.

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) February 28, 2022

OK so pronouncing Kiev as Kyiv seems to the thing to do on British TV.

I guess they read https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/how-to-pronounce-and-spell-kyiv-kiev-ukraine-and-why-it-matters

Yes, I knew Kiev was the Russian name.

Ya, I’ve been trying to pronounce it as “keev” and also not say “the” in front of Ukraine.

i still feel there is a distinct difference in putin’s behaviour now vs before
some of the things mentioned in that twitter thread were small change for him, now it feels like he’s going all in

well it is essentially the first time he's found himself in a losing position and I guess the world doesn't know how he's going to react to that. I don't know what the off-ramp is at this point. even if he pulls out immediately it isn't going to help much, it's not like the sanctions are gonna disappear overnight and it would puncture a massive hole in Russia's tough guy image, a war which they are certainly losing at the moment. I know nukes seem unlikely at this point but Putin is cornered pretty hard isn't he? like how does this play out in the coming weeks?

The sanctions should disappear overnight for that very reason. There needs to be an out.

i agree but i expect russia will be treated as a pariah as long as putin's government remains in charge

one of the russian political observers said that he was reminded about a story putin tells in his autobiography about a rat he cornered in the kitchen who attacked him, how this made such an impression on him, that powerful urge to survive when cornered

.. which is one of the reasons it feels different this time, there are multiple angles he could use to his advantage which has been the game he was playing so far, but this time he doesn’t seem to be interested in pursuing any of them, unless there is some even longer game in play

one of the russian political observers said that he was reminded about a story putin tells in his autobiography about a rat he cornered in the kitchen who attacked him, how this made such an impression on him, that powerful urge to survive when cornered

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ery7sRNkfx0/VvUAY9k_zkI/AAAAAAAA04w/G3k0nVWrLMYdW5GL_Ypbius1go9eY0Yww/s1600/Vasyl%2BRATS%2B-%2BPanini%2BSitcker%2BUSSR%2B-%2BEuro%2B1988.png

... from Ukraine, of course!

I don't know. I don't think Putin is cornered. There's a tendency to exaggerate how meaningful these latest sanctions have been. I don't think Russia losing a few percentage points off its GDP growth is going to make Putin feel like he has no option but calling down the end of days on the planet Earth. Or if he does, he was so crazy he could have done it for any reason.

one of the russian political observers said that he was reminded about a story putin tells in his autobiography about a rat he cornered in the kitchen who attacked him, how this made such an impression on him, that powerful urge to survive when cornered

i don’t think he’s cornered in the sense that he’d rather take everybody down with him but more that his bluff got called out and now he’s forced to maintain the bluff by whatever means necessary

Where is the bluff? I don't see any bluff here. As far as I can tell he is going to proceed with his plan.

i doubt he expected such a strong and unified response. but who knows, maybe it was part of his plan as i mentioned before

Its a strong and unified response, but there are still major holes in these sanctions, e.g petroleum exports.

no argument there. so the question is: why the need for such a strongly worded challenge? why “we’re putting our nuclear forces on high alert” etc?

Thats just standard stuff, tbh. I know there's a poor track record of using the phrase "saber rattling" on this thread, but to me that is nuclear saber rattling.

Economic effects being felt from top down?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/two-top-russian-billionaires-speak-out-against-invasion-of-ukraine
I mean, even Switzerland says no longer neutral---

Not my bailiwick but I gather this means something

OUCH! MSCI says removing #Russia from indexes "natural next step." More than $920bn is in EM ETFs alone. Russia has a weighting of 2.7% in EM ETFs. In other words, ~$24.5bn would automatically flow out of Russian equities. https://t.co/pPdQsgstdr pic.twitter.com/yfLvtkDl4I

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) February 28, 2022

BP to exit Rosneft stake worth $25 billion
Pressure on other energy companies to follow suit
https://www.reuters.com/business/bp-exit-opens-new-front-wests-campaign-against-russia-2022-02-27/

monaco is also joining the sanctions and will be freezing russian assets

Ruble now one cent on the dollar, "ordinary Russians" make bank runs:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russians-line-banks-prices-rise-sanctions-83153869

I feel like a real sign of how things are going will be when the "help me get my 10.5 million dollars out" emails stop coming from Africa and start coming from Russia.

that woman commandeering the armored car is the best thing I've seen in a long time

ok, i need to see this i guess.

Her laugh at the end made me tear up and go "fuck yeahhhhh!" at the same time.

same here! She's a badass

Gotta be honest - Eastern Europe has never been high on my list of international places to visit. But if it and we survive this moment, I may have to visit Ukraine on general principle.

Apparently it's not actually current to the invasion, it's just instructions on how to drive the vehicle. Still awesome.

"Putin, accusing the West of “aggressive statements,” puts nuclear forces on alert." (North Korea -- not wrong)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlizCbfd9Pc (want to forget)