ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Derek reminds his coworkers that "Russia has stubbornly refused to Landmax" while microwaving a tray of frozen mac and cheese for lunch.

I think that these sanctions will prove cataclysmic for the Russian economy. There's no other way to state it. I suspect as many other colleagues who have studied Russia over the years, it feels like staring into an abyss of uncertainty in terms of its future. https://t.co/Sd20NyaDSA

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 28, 2022

getting increasingly perturbed by how frequently words such as 'uncertain', 'unpredictable', 'unstable' etc are cropping up discussions of Putin/Russia's future

It really can’t be overstated how much of Putin’s domestic appeal is based on ‘at least he fixed the economy / brought stability’. This is also a disaster for countries all the way from Moldova to Kyrgyzstan that are dependent on remittances from migrant workers in Russia.

There needs to be a rapid path to stabilisation in the event of a Russian withdrawal or a lot of stuff is going to be extremely bad.

I think we’re all well aware of how bizarre war in the age of social media is, but unconfirmed reports that the Kremlin has unfriended Shoigu and Lavrov on Instagram may have ended me.

LOL World War Three caused by Liz Truss.

According to the Interfax news agency, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a press briefing:

"Statements were made by various representatives at various levels on possible altercations or even collisions and clashes between Nato and Russia. We believe that such statements are absolutely unacceptable. I would not call the authors of these statements by name, although it was the British foreign minister."

Apparently these spokesmen are getting their lines from sitcom writers.

"I would not call the authors of these statements by name, although it was the British foreign minister."

I feel better already

🚨 Roman Abramovich of Chelsea FC fame is “trying to help” with peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, a spokesman says.

story with @ArashMassoudi https://t.co/NNwR4mGKAK pic.twitter.com/PsLMRui1pn

— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 28, 2022

Meantime

The US announces they're cutting off Russia's central bank, banning US citizens, companies from doing business w them, “effectively immobilizes any assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation held in the U.S. or by U.S. persons, wherever located.”https://t.co/8BfhyeP3J7

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) February 28, 2022

The White House says they are announcing this decision before US markets open after learning from allies that the Russian central bank was attempting to move assets and there would be “a great deal of asset flight” this a.m.

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) February 28, 2022

Abramovich is believed to have recently instructed his lieutenant Kepa Arrizabalaga to attempt to heal Europe's divides via the medium of physical comedy

Speaking of the “wish fulfilment” reporting - I do feel like too many are taking the Ukrainians numbers at face value. I think the number of Russian KIA they are putting out there is astronomical and should be treated with much more skepticism than they are receiving.

And certainly Russia has made decent progress - but I agree (I forget if it’s upthread or elsewhere I saw it) that their objective and timing were different than what the US’s were in Iraq. This definitely looks like they were hoping to have the eastern cities and kyiv under control (or at least occupied) by now. The only way this makes sense is if they were able to do this lightening fast.

The European Union is preparing to grant Ukrainians who flee the war the right to stay and work in the EU for up to three years, Reuters reports.

This seems good. Almost half a million Ukrainians have already crossed into the EU I believe.

all these photos of putin sitting at one end of a table and his generals/ministers sitting 30 feet away are so weird and pathetic

it would honestly make more sense if he were on a raised throne and they had to sit on stools in front of him

I realize I am being a total arm chair and may be way off.

^ xpost

i wonder if those pics are current, or just older pics people are recycling.

Current, I gather they’re coming from streams/broadcasts.

Yep. Some are from the meeting with the economic advisors this morning. It’s meant to be a COVID countermeasure.

It’s definitely A Thing. Could be a weird power flex as well. Or some combination of the two.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t3drzw/phone_of_terminated_russian_soldier/

That's so sad.

Last message: Mom I'm in Ukraine. Here we have real war. We are attacking everyone, even civilians. They told us they would meet us with flowers, but they block our forces and Don't let us go further. They call us fascists. Mom it's really hard here.

Sad whether it's fake or not, tbh. This is all so unnecessary.

all these photos of putin sitting at one end of a table and his generals/ministers sitting 30 feet away are so weird and pathetic

I'm wary of reading too much into this, it could just as easily be "get me a ridiculous table, lets make them think I'm losing it"

This idea he's suddenly irrational and no longer cautious doesn't ring all that true, there's lot of evidence he goes for risky bets, going right back to the way he came to power in the first place

Reading a lot of stuff that rings true, and then something that counters it all that also rings true, on just about every angle, so its kind of disorienting

Russia's army seems to have bungled the opening, but from my amateur armchair perspective it still seems at least 50% likely that their overwhelming advantages will allow them to eventually prevail, at least in the sense of capturing the major cities and forcing the Ukrainian defense into an insurgency mode. Yes, its a major reversal for EU countries to step up and supply lethal aid to an active war zone, but its not clear to me if the on-the-ground impact will match the symbolic impact. Also, I think its easy to overrate how quickly these sanctions will impact the real Russian economy. Financial markets always react quickly, but for the concerns of the average Russian, it may be a while before we start to see the effects, and we probably won't see effects to the extent of people not being able to buy groceries or put gas in their cars. Yes, some higher unemployment, some higher than usual inflation, but maybe not quite the economic Armageddon that we are hearing about.

even if it’s just a covid protocol, it’s nice that the visitors are welcome to give each other their germs as long as vlad’s clear

xp oh i don’t think it’s a sign of him ‘losing it’ — i think it’s a sign of him eternally being, as someone said, ‘a 5-foot-6 guy who tells people he’s 5-foot-7’

A piece I don't really understand is whether the economic sanctions have any impact on military logistics - is there enough short term impact to make refueling and supply lines more difficult? If not, my fear is that Putin won't see any choice but to keep stepping up aggression, unable to back down, and eventually the Russian army's superior force would defeat Ukraine. Then of course Russia is mired in an untenable occupation with a likely prolonged insurgency supported by western powers, but that situation still feels like a tragedy for everyone, hard to feel good about it. I don't think Putin can emerge from this stronger, but in the meantime I fear a lot more destruction.

Good thread on Putin's history of taking risky gambles:

There are many people right now who are arguing that Putin has somehow changed/lost it/gone mad and is not the man he used to be.

I couldn't disagree more. They have simply not been paying attention. This is who he has *always* been 🧵

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) February 28, 2022

beyond fuel, it will definitely effect their ability to produce new weapons/vehicles in oder to replace what is getting destroyed. raw materials, electronics and just buying power is going to be much more limited for them going forward. i am certainly skeptical of the numbers we are hearing from Ukraine – but Russia is definitely losing their fair share of equipment there.
xpost

Anyway, Ukraine has just applied for EU membership, per various reports.

how to tik tok: Ukraine edition

The future is a very weird place. Ukrainians are uploading videos on TikTok about how to drive abandoned or captured Russian military vehicles. pic.twitter.com/ElE7lxoBV8

— Read The Dispossessed by Ursula K. LeGuin (@JoshuaPotash) February 28, 2022

Official. FIFA and UEFA suspend Russian clubs and national teams from all competitions. 🚨

“Football is fully united here and in full solidarity with all the people affected in Ukraine”, statement says.

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) February 28, 2022

I love the implication that you can learn to drive a tank in 30 seconds.

BP and Shell have announced they're leaving the country. Seems kinda big.

"The country" being Russia, to clarify.

Was wondering.

Had to assume but...

Resisting temptation to post video of a certain Canned Heat song.

well, it's something:

Finland will provide weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, the country’s prime minister Sanna Marin said.

The shipment will include 2,500 assault rifles, 150,000 bullets, 1,500 anti-tank weapons and 70,000 food packages, Finland’s defence minister Antti Kaikkonen added.

First Switzerland and now...

(Reuters) - Monaco, an international hub often favoured by wealthy Russians, will also proceed with freezing assets and imposing sanctions on Russians in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, said a statement by the Monaco Royal Palace.

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) February 28, 2022

OK so pronouncing Kiev as Kyiv seems to the thing to do on British TV.

I guess they read https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/how-to-pronounce-and-spell-kyiv-kiev-ukraine-and-why-it-matters

Yes, I knew Kiev was the Russian name.

Ya, I’ve been trying to pronounce it as “keev” and also not say “the” in front of Ukraine.

i still feel there is a distinct difference in putin’s behaviour now vs before
some of the things mentioned in that twitter thread were small change for him, now it feels like he’s going all in

well it is essentially the first time he's found himself in a losing position and I guess the world doesn't know how he's going to react to that. I don't know what the off-ramp is at this point. even if he pulls out immediately it isn't going to help much, it's not like the sanctions are gonna disappear overnight and it would puncture a massive hole in Russia's tough guy image, a war which they are certainly losing at the moment. I know nukes seem unlikely at this point but Putin is cornered pretty hard isn't he? like how does this play out in the coming weeks?

The sanctions should disappear overnight for that very reason. There needs to be an out.

i agree but i expect russia will be treated as a pariah as long as putin's government remains in charge

one of the russian political observers said that he was reminded about a story putin tells in his autobiography about a rat he cornered in the kitchen who attacked him, how this made such an impression on him, that powerful urge to survive when cornered

.. which is one of the reasons it feels different this time, there are multiple angles he could use to his advantage which has been the game he was playing so far, but this time he doesn’t seem to be interested in pursuing any of them, unless there is some even longer game in play

one of the russian political observers said that he was reminded about a story putin tells in his autobiography about a rat he cornered in the kitchen who attacked him, how this made such an impression on him, that powerful urge to survive when cornered

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ery7sRNkfx0/VvUAY9k_zkI/AAAAAAAA04w/G3k0nVWrLMYdW5GL_Ypbius1go9eY0Yww/s1600/Vasyl%2BRATS%2B-%2BPanini%2BSitcker%2BUSSR%2B-%2BEuro%2B1988.png

... from Ukraine, of course!

I don't know. I don't think Putin is cornered. There's a tendency to exaggerate how meaningful these latest sanctions have been. I don't think Russia losing a few percentage points off its GDP growth is going to make Putin feel like he has no option but calling down the end of days on the planet Earth. Or if he does, he was so crazy he could have done it for any reason.

one of the russian political observers said that he was reminded about a story putin tells in his autobiography about a rat he cornered in the kitchen who attacked him, how this made such an impression on him, that powerful urge to survive when cornered