ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

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why didnt the three little pigs surrender to the big bad wolf surely it would have worked out ok for them

terminators of endearment (VegemiteGrrl), Sunday, 27 February 2022 18:46 (two years ago) link

Whatever else is going on, this ain't good.

Kyiv’s mayor says the city is now completely surrounded and all exits blocked by Russian troops. No way to evacuate civilians.

Siege begins. pic.twitter.com/eND142bcuR

— Polina Ivanova (@polinaivanovva) February 27, 2022

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 27 February 2022 18:51 (two years ago) link

some bits from Echo of Moscow:

- the office of the prosecutor general of russia threatened to charge russian citizens who donate to ukrainian military with treason
- russian ministry of defence insists civilian sites and civilians are not being targeted
- roskomnadzor (federal service for supervision of communications, information technology and mass media) threatened to block russian media sites who publish information from sources other than russian and who refer to what is happening as "war"

(Echo of Moscow continues to refer to it as war* with an asterisk being explained as "roskomnadzor considers information about targeting ukrainian cities and deaths of civilians as the result of the actions of russian military as not reflecting reality, including any materials where the operation is referred to as an attack, an invasion or a declaration of war)

scanner darkly, Sunday, 27 February 2022 18:58 (two years ago) link

Well I would say Ukraine is the pig in the straw house that is bein gblown down.

WHat kind of world is this? It's kind of crap!

| (Latham Green), Sunday, 27 February 2022 18:58 (two years ago) link

A data point for the "at what cost" file:

Russian bank Tinkoff now offering to exchange rubles for dollars at a rate of 171 rubles per dollar. It was 83 before the European/US announcement about targeting the Russian central bank. Currency market formally opens tomorrow. This is brutal. pic.twitter.com/NsTBI4tvTZ

— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne) February 27, 2022

but also fuck you (unperson), Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:00 (two years ago) link

So if Trump was prez he would be saying "Good job Putin" ? That would be weird. I'm sure other nato people woudl be sad.

| (Latham Green), Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:07 (two years ago) link

I don’t think so. I think he’d ultimately follow the defense establishment line notwithstanding his personal boner for strongmen

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:16 (two years ago) link

I honestly can’t imagine trump tuning on Putin. I don’t see his personal cost analysis favouring what he can get by turning his back on him vs the benefit of sticking by Russia.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:35 (two years ago) link

⚡️Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, reportedly fired today. Gerasimov was very highly regarded, the most important military leader of the past generation, & the architect of today’s Russian Armed Forces. He’s served as the head of the military since 2012. pic.twitter.com/zlEVbCPvZ1

— Alexander S. Vindman (@AVindman) February 27, 2022

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:41 (two years ago) link

Or maybe not? There seems to be a lot of disagreement in the comments.

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:41 (two years ago) link

Yeah I'm not buying that until I see more on the matter.

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:43 (two years ago) link

Separately, my brain died

Confirmed.

Volodymyr Zelensky is the Ukrainian voice of Paddington Bear. https://t.co/HuXsoSQe7e

— Franklin Leonard (@franklinleonard) February 27, 2022

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:44 (two years ago) link

Upside I guess if this was PUtin's last mistake - he is toppled - and we see a post-Putin Russia t last

| (Latham Green), Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:44 (two years ago) link

i see you’re a glass 1% full kind of a person

scanner darkly, Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:46 (two years ago) link

Isolated autocrats who have iron-fistedly crushed all organized opposition don't usually need that much to hang onto power, if literally all they want to achieve is hanging onto power.

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:51 (two years ago) link

I honestly can’t imagine trump tuning on Putin. I don’t see his personal cost analysis favouring what he can get by turning his back on him vs the benefit of sticking by Russia.

― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, February 27, 2022 2:35 PM (sixteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Except I don't think he ever really did that much for Russia while president, mostly just blustery talk. The defense establishment's position didn't really change during that time, and Trump never actually bucked it.

https://www.npr.org/2018/07/20/630659379/is-trump-the-toughest-ever-on-russia

"When you actually look at the substance of what this administration has done, not the rhetoric but the substance, this administration has been much tougher on Russia than any in the post-Cold War era," said Daniel Vajdich, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Take military spending: Trump sought to add $1.4 billion for fiscal year 2018 to the European Deterrence Initiative — a military effort to deter Russian aggression that was initially known as the European Reassurance Initiative. That's a 41 percent increase from the last year of the Obama administration. The president also agreed to send lethal weapons to Ukraine — a step that Obama resisted. And Trump gave U.S. forces in Syria more leeway to engage with Russian troops.

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"Those loosened rules of engagement have resulted in direct military clashes with Russian militants and mercenaries on the ground, actually resulting in one incident in hundreds of casualties on the Russian side," Vajdich said.

The administration has also imposed sanctions on dozens of Russian oligarchs and government officials. And Trump has aggressively promoted U.S. energy exports, although so far that hasn't created much competition for Russia's oil and gas.

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:53 (two years ago) link

Russian media accidentally posted an article about Russian victory
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html

Below comes machine translation, but I think the point will be clear.

"The offensive of Russia and the new world"

A new world is being born before our eyes. Russia's military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era - and in three dimensions at once. And of course, in the fourth, internal Russian. Here begins a new period both in ideology and in the very model of our socio-economic system - but this is worth talking about separately a little later.

Russia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great cost, yes, through the tragic events of a virtual civil war, because now brothers, separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies, are still shooting at each other, but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together - in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians. If we had abandoned this, if we had allowed the temporary division to take hold for centuries, then we would not only betray the memory of our ancestors, but would also be cursed by our descendants for allowing the disintegration of the Russian land.

Vladimir Putin has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations. After all, the need to solve it would always remain the main problem for Russia - for two key reasons. And the issue of national security, that is, the creation of anti-Russia from Ukraine and an outpost for the West to put pressure on us, is only the second most important among them.

The first would always be the complex of a divided people, the complex of national humiliation - when the Russian house first lost part of its foundation (Kiev), and then was forced to come to terms with the existence of two states, not one, but two peoples. That is, either to abandon their history, agreeing with the crazy versions that "only Ukraine is the real Russia," or to gnash one's teeth helplessly, remembering the times when "we lost Ukraine." Returning Ukraine, that is, turning it back to Russia, would be more and more difficult with every decade - recoding, de-Russification of Russians and inciting Ukrainian Little Russians against Russians would gain momentum. And in the event of the consolidation of the full geopolitical and military control of the West over Ukraine, its return to Russia would become completely impossible - it would have to fight for it with the Atlantic bloc.

Now this problem is gone - Ukraine has returned to Russia. This does not mean that its statehood will be liquidated, but it will be reorganized, re-established and returned to its natural state of part of the Russian world. Within what boundaries, in what form will the alliance with Russia be consolidated (through the CSTO and the Eurasian Union or the Union State of Russia and Belarus)? This will be decided after the end is put in the history of Ukraine as anti-Russia. In any case, the period of the split of the Russian people is coming to an end.

And here begins the second dimension of the coming new era - it concerns Russia's relations with the West. Not even Russia, but the Russian world, that is, three states, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, acting in geopolitical terms as a single whole. These relations have entered a new stage - the West sees the return of Russia to its historical borders in Europe. And he is loudly indignant at this, although in the depths of his soul he must admit to himself that it could not be otherwise.

Did anyone in the old European capitals, in Paris and Berlin, seriously believe that Moscow would give up Kyiv? That the Russians will forever be a divided people? And at the same time when Europe is uniting, when the German and French elites are trying to seize control of European integration from the Anglo-Saxons and assemble a united Europe? Forgetting that the unification of Europe became possible only thanks to the unification of Germany, which took place according to the good Russian (albeit not very smart) will. To swipe after that also on Russian lands is not even the height of ingratitude, but of geopolitical stupidity. The West as a whole, and even more so Europe in particular, did not have the strength to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence, and even more so to take Ukraine for itself. In order not to understand this, one had to be just geopolitical fools.

More precisely, there was only one option: to bet on the further collapse of Russia, that is, the Russian Federation. But the fact that it did not work should have been clear twenty years ago. And already fifteen years ago, after Putin's Munich speech, even the deaf could hear - Russia is returning.

Now the West is trying to punish Russia for the fact that it returned, for not justifying its plans to profit at its expense, for not allowing the expansion of the western space to the east. Seeking to punish us, the West thinks that relations with it are of vital importance to us. But this has not been the case for a long time - the world has changed, and this is well understood not only by Europeans, but also by the Anglo-Saxons who rule the West. No amount of Western pressure on Russia will lead to anything. Losses from the sublimation of confrontation will be on both sides, but Russia is ready for them morally and geopolitically. But for the West itself, an increase in the degree of confrontation incurs huge costs - and the main ones are not at all economic.

Europe, as part of the West, wanted autonomy - the German project of European integration does not make strategic sense while maintaining the Anglo-Saxon ideological, military and geopolitical control over the Old World. Yes, and it cannot be successful, because the Anglo-Saxons need a controlled Europe. But Europe needs autonomy for another reason as well — in case the States go into self-isolation (as a result of growing internal conflicts and contradictions) or focus on the Pacific region, where the geopolitical center of gravity is moving.

But the confrontation with Russia, into which the Anglo-Saxons are dragging Europe, deprives the Europeans of even the chances of independence - not to mention the fact that in the same way Europe is trying to impose a break with China. If now the Atlanticists are happy that the "Russian threat" will unite the Western bloc, then in Berlin and Paris they cannot fail to understand that, having lost hope for autonomy, the European project will simply collapse in the medium term. That is why independent-minded Europeans are now completely uninterested in building a new iron curtain on their eastern borders - realizing that it will turn into a corral for Europe. Whose century (more precisely, half a millennium) of global leadership is over in any case - but various options for its future are still possible.

Because the construction of a new world order - and this is the third dimension of current events - is accelerating, and its contours are more and more clearly visible through the spreading cover of Anglo-Saxon globalization. A multipolar world has finally become a reality - the operation in Ukraine is not capable of rallying anyone but the West against Russia. Because the rest of the world sees and understands perfectly well - this is a conflict between Russia and the West, this is a response to the geopolitical expansion of the Atlanticists, this is Russia's return of its historical space and its place in the world.

China and India, Latin America and Africa, the Islamic world and Southeast Asia - no one believes that the West leads the world order, much less sets the rules of the game. Russia has not only challenged the West, it has shown that the era of Western global domination can be considered completely and finally over. The new world will be built by all civilizations and centers of power, naturally, together with the West (united or not) - but not on its terms and not according to its rules.

ian, Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:54 (two years ago) link

in case there was any remaining doubt about russian aims, pretty well spelled out there

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Sunday, 27 February 2022 19:59 (two years ago) link

wonder how "accidental" that really was

Daniel_Rf, Sunday, 27 February 2022 20:07 (two years ago) link

Another miscalculation Putin may have made is confusing calculated, cautious cooperation with allegiance or alignment. The only leaders that can't afford to turn their backs on him are the ones he props up, just like his oligarchs at home. Belarus, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela ... with friends like these, you need new friends. Even China and Hungary have hedged their bets.

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 27 February 2022 20:08 (two years ago) link

US Embassy in Moscow says: “US citizens should consider departing Russia immediately.”https://t.co/598gdcQIqD pic.twitter.com/uu8a88yXbQ

— Cliff Levy (@cliffordlevy) February 27, 2022

You think?

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 27 February 2022 20:11 (two years ago) link

Ah, this is good.

Kyiv Mayor @Klitschko says on his official Telegram channel that info spreading online of the capital being surrounded and closed off on all sides is disinformation pic.twitter.com/O5BWrhKccR

— Alex Ward (@alexbward) February 27, 2022

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 27 February 2022 20:31 (two years ago) link

But again, seems like further confusion in the follow-ups. Who knows, sadly.

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 27 February 2022 20:32 (two years ago) link

xp i think it’s important to maintain distinction between russian goals and putin’s goals

scanner darkly, Sunday, 27 February 2022 20:54 (two years ago) link

If sanctions and freezes on Swiss etc. accounts, other international resources, really put a squeeze on oligarchs and Kremlin officials who are involved in running and/or getting big money from conglomerates, seems like possibly Putin could be removed or pressured to find some compromise---and retired later, esp. as fallout from present moment, incl. compromise, left lingering problems for Russia,
But cutting off oil and gas deals could bring on a recession in the West, maybe elsewhere outside of Russia too---would be worth it vs. rolling warfare etc., but some more of that (already in progress) would have to motivate the public to accept, if they did.
Elections coming up in France, for inst, midterms in US---could be a wave of Right candidates, blaming libs for weakness, pledging to work something out with Putin---

dow, Sunday, 27 February 2022 21:38 (two years ago) link

I'm sure Putin has his personal security staff, other circles within circles, hardcore, but, like their boss, ultimately out for themselves, as much as possible. (Though also with x number of true believers, for whom strongmen are magnets, also those too scared to change sides)

dow, Sunday, 27 February 2022 21:43 (two years ago) link

Lookin' good, Russia!

Dammmnnn https://t.co/RE9ZIN1ffp

— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) February 27, 2022

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 27 February 2022 22:31 (two years ago) link

tiiiiiiight

An Ukranian sailor has been arrested in Mallorca after sinking the yacht of his Russian wealthy boss.
Boat owner is Alexander Mijeev, an executive at Rostec, a Russian state owned company manufacturer military equipment and tech
Source @UHmalllorcahttps://t.co/FexzbDbhkD

— Ignasi Guardans (@iguardans) February 27, 2022

papal hotwife (milo z), Monday, 28 February 2022 01:24 (two years ago) link

My brain has again died

From Z's old comedy troupe Kvartal 95. The song is called "Cossacks," about gay Cossacks. "Let's become gay! ... Tomorrow we're going to have a dance-off against the Russians! Ukraine has not yet perished, while we still have lard! Lard, borshch, onion, horseradish, let's drink." https://t.co/V6ok0g7Jpi

— Talia Lavin (@swordsjew) February 27, 2022

Ned Raggett, Monday, 28 February 2022 01:34 (two years ago) link

This is an epic thread but full of fascinating stuff about Russia and how we got here:

Why Russia will lose this war?

Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is?

I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals🧵 pic.twitter.com/pXpfIcq3Zs

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) February 27, 2022

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 28 February 2022 02:17 (two years ago) link

Pretty good

People are asking me why I endorsed the use of "We're Not Gonna Take It" for the Ukrainian people and did not for the anti-maskers. Well, one use is for a righteous battle against oppression; the other is a infantile feet stomping against an inconvenience.

— Dee Snider🇺🇸 (@deesnider) February 27, 2022

Ned Raggett, Monday, 28 February 2022 02:18 (two years ago) link

This guy gets around. What a guy:

People of the World…Reporting from the Ukraine border! This is one of the places @WCKitchen has hot meals. It is below freezing tonight & I am meeting so many refugees, families who are escaping & don’t know what’s next…We will do our best not to let them down! #ChefsForUkraine pic.twitter.com/YiEemUfLlC

— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) February 28, 2022

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 28 February 2022 02:30 (two years ago) link

The part about special operations vs war was interesting in the link Josh shared.
I’d always assumed Russia’s army was experienced and well updated; and while not wrong - that might not nec help them in Ukraine.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 28 February 2022 03:11 (two years ago) link

The evangelical, hands-across-the ocean Russian pitch upthread seems like something that European and American right-wingers might use along with reminders that Czar-in-training Vladimir is a Christian conservative too--reminding me of this turn in Margaret Talbot's recent New Yorker contextualization of Amy Coney Barrett:
If Barrett declines to overturn Roe in the Mississippi case, it could give momentum to conservative scholars and pundits who have already expressed disappointment in originalism. This faction would like to replace it with “common-good constitutionalism” or “common-good originalism”—approaches that make no apologies for elevating their versions of morality over others’. In a recent manifesto, the legal commentators Hadley Arkes, Garrett Snedeker, and Matthew Peterson, along with the opinion editor of Newsweek, Josh Hammer, argued for a“more robust jurisprudence rooted in the principles and practices of American constitutionalism before the last century of liberalism began its attempt to remake America.” Judges, they wrote, had to stand against a “moral relativism brooking no limits, not even those objective truths in nature that distinguish men from women.” For a time, originalists had held out against “the rapid hegemonic rise and the sweeping reach of ‘Progress’ ”—the manifesto praised District of Columbia v. Heller, in which Scalia interpreted the Second Amendment as a guarantee of an individual’s right to bear arms, and Citizens United, which equated unlimited corporate campaign spending with free speech. But originalists had relied too much on “proceduralist bromides”—asking Is it in the Constitution or not? instead of Is it right or wrong?—and thus had failed to achieve conservatives’ desired result of renewing the culture along traditionalist, or “natural law,” lines.Given the classic conservative complaint about liberal “activist judges”—that they are nakedly results-oriented—this critique of originalism represents a volte-face. Common-good constitutionalism’s biggest thinker, the Harvard law professor Adrian Vermeule—who, in 2016, announced his conversion to Catholicism—regularly summons a vision of a new order that can sound more like an authoritarian theocracy than like a constitutional democracy. In 2020, he wrote a rather ominous essay in The Atlantic, “Beyond Originalism,” which argued:

Just authority in rulers can be exercised for the good of subjects, if necessary even against the subjects’ own perceptions of what is best for them—perceptions that may change over time anyway, as the law teaches, habituates, and re-forms them. Subjects will come to thank the ruler whose legal strictures, possibly experienced at first as coercive, encourage subjects to form more authentic desires for the individual and common goods,better habits, and beliefs that better track and promote communal well-being.

dow, Monday, 28 February 2022 03:40 (two years ago) link

"the ruler" and "subjects" is a nice inversion of the basic principles of democracy

more difficult than I look (Aimless), Monday, 28 February 2022 04:01 (two years ago) link

what does the annihilation of kiev mean for roe vs wade

Ár an broc a mhic (darraghmac), Monday, 28 February 2022 07:44 (two years ago) link

re: all the bogged down talk

Russia's advance has been extraordinarily rapid. For comparison's sake, here are same-scale maps of 48 hours into the US invasion of Iraq and @JulianRoepcke's estimate after 36 hours in Ukraine.

Anyone saying Russia is bogged down is nuts. https://t.co/X4iVuIW1Ei pic.twitter.com/U6pbpyvx8u

— Bazaar of War (@bazaarofwar) February 26, 2022

papal hotwife (milo z), Monday, 28 February 2022 08:04 (two years ago) link

There is somewhat of a difference in terrain and conditions between Iraq and Ukraine.

Meet the Irish Queer Archive Poet In Residence (Tom D.), Monday, 28 February 2022 08:15 (two years ago) link

There are huge differences - Iraq didn't have an air force at all, for one - but the idea that it's a disaster/even 'going badly' remains highly speculative and possibly more wish fulfillment than reality. It's been a rapid advance by any measure. The Russians are taking more casualties than a western democracy would accept but that doesn't mean much. If the war 'goes badly' for them it will be more about the economy tanking due to international actions than poor kids from Chechnya getting killed.

papal hotwife (milo z), Monday, 28 February 2022 08:22 (two years ago) link

I can't take any more of these 'Here's why Russia will lose. 1/35' threads.

Sam Weller, Monday, 28 February 2022 08:42 (two years ago) link

Derek reminds his coworkers that "Russia has stubbornly refused to Landmax" while microwaving a tray of frozen mac and cheese for lunch.

Bixby in a Samsung I know it's Siri-esque (Sufjan Grafton), Monday, 28 February 2022 09:15 (two years ago) link

I think that these sanctions will prove cataclysmic for the Russian economy. There's no other way to state it. I suspect as many other colleagues who have studied Russia over the years, it feels like staring into an abyss of uncertainty in terms of its future. https://t.co/Sd20NyaDSA

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 28, 2022

getting increasingly perturbed by how frequently words such as 'uncertain', 'unpredictable', 'unstable' etc are cropping up discussions of Putin/Russia's future

soref, Monday, 28 February 2022 09:50 (two years ago) link

It really can’t be overstated how much of Putin’s domestic appeal is based on ‘at least he fixed the economy / brought stability’. This is also a disaster for countries all the way from Moldova to Kyrgyzstan that are dependent on remittances from migrant workers in Russia.

There needs to be a rapid path to stabilisation in the event of a Russian withdrawal or a lot of stuff is going to be extremely bad.

Scampo di tutti i Scampi (ShariVari), Monday, 28 February 2022 10:26 (two years ago) link

I think we’re all well aware of how bizarre war in the age of social media is, but unconfirmed reports that the Kremlin has unfriended Shoigu and Lavrov on Instagram may have ended me.

Scampo di tutti i Scampi (ShariVari), Monday, 28 February 2022 12:10 (two years ago) link

LOL World War Three caused by Liz Truss.

According to the Interfax news agency, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a press briefing:

"Statements were made by various representatives at various levels on possible altercations or even collisions and clashes between Nato and Russia. We believe that such statements are absolutely unacceptable. I would not call the authors of these statements by name, although it was the British foreign minister."

Meet the Irish Queer Archive Poet In Residence (Tom D.), Monday, 28 February 2022 12:20 (two years ago) link

Apparently these spokesmen are getting their lines from sitcom writers.

Tracer Hand, Monday, 28 February 2022 12:24 (two years ago) link

"I would not call the authors of these statements by name, although it was the British foreign minister."

the pinefox, Monday, 28 February 2022 12:59 (two years ago) link

I feel better already

🚨 Roman Abramovich of Chelsea FC fame is “trying to help” with peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, a spokesman says.

story with @ArashMassoudi https://t.co/NNwR4mGKAK pic.twitter.com/PsLMRui1pn

— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 28, 2022

Ned Raggett, Monday, 28 February 2022 13:00 (two years ago) link

Meantime

The US announces they're cutting off Russia's central bank, banning US citizens, companies from doing business w them, “effectively immobilizes any assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation held in the U.S. or by U.S. persons, wherever located.”https://t.co/8BfhyeP3J7

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) February 28, 2022



The White House says they are announcing this decision before US markets open after learning from allies that the Russian central bank was attempting to move assets and there would be “a great deal of asset flight” this a.m.

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) February 28, 2022

Ned Raggett, Monday, 28 February 2022 13:02 (two years ago) link

Abramovich is believed to have recently instructed his lieutenant Kepa Arrizabalaga to attempt to heal Europe's divides via the medium of physical comedy

hiroyoshi tins in (Sgt. Biscuits), Monday, 28 February 2022 13:09 (two years ago) link


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