ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Putin is finished, but the unravelling might take quite a while, and will probably also entail reducing Kyiv to rubble. I just can't see this ending in any way that is not horrible.

I think we’re all in the same boat of speculating and trying to figure things out.

I suspect we won’t know the ‘why now?’ bit for a while. There are lots of potential factors that could have contributed (Russian bullishness on the back of relatively successful campaigns in Syria and Libya, nervousness about Lukashenko’s long term future, Zelenskiy’s popularity dipping through COVID leading to increased government pressure on Russia-leaning media / oligarchs and the prospect of him being replaced by more hardline nationalists, etc) but there was no obvious reason we know of to escalate from recognition of the breakaway republics, and ratcheting up pressure, to full scale invasion so quickly.

It’s definitely plausible that Putin thought this would be over pretty quickly, with Kyiv forced into unpalatable concessions within a week or two. That’s still possible now, though perhaps more on the lines of negotiation than surrender. If that happens, it remains to be seen how much of the good will Zelenskiy has generated with the groups that considered him weak for talking about peace when he was elected carries over.

Things do have potential to become much worse over the next few weeks and the only hope is that the base unpopularity of the war at home provides a counterweight. Only about 45% of people supported recognition of the republics, vs 90% for Crimea. It’s reasonable to assume that fewer will have supported the war as sold (a limited police action to target nationalists, not ‘our brothers in the Ukrainian army’ / civilians, etc). The war as fought has already been substantially worse and, however hard they try to limit reporting, that’s not easy to hide. Start going down the route of mass shelling of civilians, etc, many of whom will have friends and family in Russia, and it’s impossible for there not to be domestic outrage. How much that matters…

I found this (from a Youtuber I'm already a fan of) to be highly illuminating:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE

ive a tenner on ukraine got in at 15:1 so fingers crossed they get the result

Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty." pic.twitter.com/AC1yHncqZc

— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 27, 2022

every time I realise Tom Lehrer is still with us, I wonder if we will truly all go together when we go...

― imago, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 16:34 (three months ago) bookmarkflaglink

sorry 4 apocalypseposting lol

Ok, I’m starting to get kinda terrified now

Using nukes makes no sense, then again invading Ukraine didn’t either and I don’t exactly trust Putins judgment right now

I saw elsewhere that Putin can’t launch nukes on his own and a general would need to sign off/follow through (I’m not sure of what actual steps are involved). But I don’t think anyone is going to want to be a part of mass murder on that scale (launching an attack and then dying along with the rest of Russia/civilization) simply because Putin’s war isn’t going well.
NATO soldiers (hypothetically) marching into Russian territory is when I’d start thinking it’s a concern.

sorry but i lol’d

Same energy. pic.twitter.com/U72AUEzjsA

— Eddie Burfi (@EddieBurfi) February 27, 2022

I get anxious about nukes, too, but the nukes have been there all along. Their implicit threat is part of their purpose, no matter who wields them.

Meanwhile:

This is a huge deal. Russia will inevitably retaliate and shut its airspace to Canada, which cuts off many of the great circle routes that go over the top of the world.

It also puts a measure of pressure on the US to do the same. https://t.co/icTCtUQKs9

— Oren Liebermann (@OrenCNN) February 27, 2022

This is all based on fog of war, incomplete info etc but so far it is feeling like a lot of people, including myself, and including Russia itself, overestimated Russia’s military capabilities. Putin is good at playing a weak hand strong and it’s starting to feel like he did that here, hoping the Ukrainian govt would just fold and he could quickly March to Kyiv and install a puppet (with “democratic” approval of the people of Ukraine at some point after). I am afraid to be too sure of anything with the nuclear threat looming, with the possibility that much more indiscriminate attacks on civilians could be launched, etc. But I can’t see so far that any strategic aim is being achieved and Russia’s invasion is looking haphazard and confused.

people are claiming the US and nato won't do anything if russia does launch a nuclear warhead because it has 6000 of them, which is enough to destroy the entire world. i guess these same people think putin would rather destroy the entire world if he can't annex ukraine

also i do wonder how easy it is for those in charge of launching the nuke to accidentally launch it, kind of like the flawed design and poor handling in chernobyl

and a team associated with princeton have mocked up one scenario:

https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jy3JU-ORpo

in that scenario, the safest places to be would be latin america, africa, south asia and austrlia. arguably, it might be safe to be in canada, but major cities being so close to the US border would undoubtedly cause some damage, as a handful of warheads would be directed at all major US cities, including seattle

Don't think we need to have "what if nukes go off accidentally" chat right now.

thank you

Quite. My only thought as such is that if the talk about this from Putin being aimed more domestically is true (and I'd buy that) then that in of itself is a crazy situation because -- if you're just a Russian normie who watches domestic news etc -- in the space of a week your leader has publicly gone, in full broadcast/TV speeches, from "gotta a little problem here that history demands we address, just a heads up" to "could the Ukrainian armed forces please depose their leader" to "don't worry we've got nukes." Which...might not universally read well.

⚡️⚡️#Georgian sailors refused to refuel the Russian ship

The flashmob is very interesting. Every #Russian ship should hear this phrase anywhere in the world. pic.twitter.com/ApJsVKMKFa

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) February 27, 2022

At the end of the day, I think Putin's one non-negotiable goal is maintaining his grip on power. As has been mentioned in this thread, he can live with being a pariah on the world stage and debilitating sanctions, as long as he can maintain his grip on power. In some ways, isolation may enable him to enact ever more draconian social controls. The only question is if there is any credible threat of an internal coup or a determined popular uprising that could threaten his grip on power. I think underneath all of his long-winded historic analysis of the Ukraine-Russian relationship as justification for his policies, perhaps the core of his fear and hatred of the Ukrainian regime stems from the fact that it resulted from a popular uprising, which is probably one of the only possible threats he perceives to his power. I think he has already made the calculation that sanctions will be a wash. They will cause more grumbling, but will also give him justification for a more isolated and totalitarian Russian state. He may be surprised by how quickly sanctions have ratcheted up. As an amoral autocratic sociopath, one thing he may have trouble anticipating is how quickly widespread moral outrage can shift the behavior of democratic governments. By all accounts, sanctions are getting much more severe than anyone anticipated at this stage. That means threats of further sanctions lose their effectiveness, but its not clear if they had much effect anyway. As has been mentioned, his reluctance to cause massive civilian casualties is probably more a factor of domestic political repercussions than fears of sanctions.

For those who don't speak Russian, at the end, the Russian ship complains that they're about to run out of fuel one more time, and the Georgians tell them to break out the ores and start rowing.

🔥 🔥 🔥

— Artem Russakovskii 🇺🇦 (@ArtemR) February 27, 2022

so far it is feeling like a lot of people, including myself, and including Russia itself, overestimated Russia’s military capabilities

People have been overestimating Russia in almost every realm for decades IMO. Russia is a very large, very poor country that is still somehow able to present a veneer of wealth and power*, mostly because of the credulity of mediots.

*yes, this is true of the US as well but the US is richer and more powerful, with more allies, bought and paid-for though they might be.

huge breaking news at BP:

- BP to exit its 20% stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft

- BP chief executive Bernard Looney to resign from board of Rosneft with immediate effect

— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) February 27, 2022

First, we are shutting down the EU airspace for Russian-owned, Russian registered or Russian-controlled aircraft.
 
They won’t be able to land in, take off or overfly the territory of the EU.
 
Including the private jets of oligarchs. pic.twitter.com/o551M9zekQ

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) February 27, 2022

Putin, personally, might not care, but millions of other people certainly must care. And what could Putin possibly do to change any of this at this point, anyway, besides make more threats? All these sanctions and punishments and restrictions rolling in, it's not like they're going to be or even can be reversed overnight, can they? Even if he brings all his troops home tonight he has amplified the international distrust of his leadership 100 fold. At this point he might as well get Kim Jong-un's current address, because he's going to be limited to a few close penpals on the global scale.

As has been mentioned, his reluctance to cause massive civilian casualties is probably more a factor of domestic political repercussions than fears of sanctions.

― o. nate, Sunday, 27 February 2022 16:54 (twenty-six minutes ago) link

I took it more to be a function of his strategic aims in Ukraine (which are failing anyway). He wanted to install a puppet with a veneer of democratic support from Ukrainians. Leveling half of Ukraine wasn't really going to serve that goal. It turns out neither did invading.

Hope this thread is good.

Just here to drop a tweet/thread that gets at why so much analysis of what would/will happen from professional foreign policy analysts is worse than useless, and professional foreign policy is terrible.

Interesting, reflective thread on how/why so many Russia and foreign policy experts were so wrong in their predictions about Ukraine, while military analysts, broadly, were more correct.

One key difference is paying attention to costly signals: interpreting the force build-up. https://t.co/Z8CQZpJ844

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 25, 2022

Military analysts generally looked at the scale of forces arrayed against Ukraine and said this was too big to signal anything but war. It certainly looks like they were right.

I mean ...

Putin is finished, but the unravelling might take quite a while, and will probably also entail reducing Kyiv to rubble. I just can't see this ending in any way that is not horrible.

― Zelda Zonk, Sunday, February 27, 2022

I agree with most of that post, except for the first three words.

What would count as evidence that Putin is, or indeed is not, 'finished'?

He's a dictator with massive power over one of the biggest superpowers in world history, which has the capacity to kill everyone on the planet. I don't think I see him not being in post for a few more years. In that sense, it doesn't seem accurate to say he is 'finished'.

However, I hope that the post is correct and I am wrong.

Any time I see a 'it's over for Putin' sentiment in the wild I think to myself "You know, Hitler wasn't alone in the bunker for months there."

Peat — it’s good for sequestering carbon, and enemy tanks*.

*near Sumy, Ukrainepic.twitter.com/rFaXFAsyjH

— David Ho (@_david_ho_) February 27, 2022

Reminds me of stories of Germans pushing into Russia, constantly pausing to free their tanks.

xpost Yeah, "finished" takes time. Having recently read "The Rise and Fall ..." I was shocked how early the author noted events that signaled Hitler's inevitable end, and how long it still took to come to pass. Of course, Hitler was a lunatic with divergent genocidal goals, so he was a little distracted.

I hope that Ukrainians can either blow up those tanks, or somehow requisition them and use them.

What’s in that tweet there? I can’t see it without a Twitter acc’t. I’m assuming tanks stuck in a swamp?!

Yes - in a field of peat.

First, this is a deterrence action against the west, both conventionally and western sanctions. It's a big 'keep out' sign, not a real intent to escalate to nuclear force or aimed at ukr.

— Pwn All The Things (@pwnallthethings) February 27, 2022

found this useful

New: EU commission chief announces it will “ban the Kremlin’s media machine in the EU,” among other measures.
 
“The state-owned RT and Sputnik, and their subsidiaries, will no longer be able to spread their lies to justify Putin’s war [and] toxic and harmful disinformation” pic.twitter.com/FaX48ONSPU

— Vera Bergengruen (@VeraMBergen) February 27, 2022

I took it more to be a function of his strategic aims in Ukraine (which are failing anyway). He wanted to install a puppet with a veneer of democratic support from Ukrainians. Leveling half of Ukraine wasn't really going to serve that goal. It turns out neither did invading.

Good point. He may also be worried that his army might actually refuse to carry out such orders. If any of these social media videos of ordinary Ukrainians interacting with Russian soldiers are real, then it seems the morale of these young Russian soldiers ordered to carry out mass attacks on civilians, of people who share a common language and many cultural ties, might start to show cracks.

I'm flabbergasted at the analysts who have been following Putin for decades, admitted that they did not see this invasion coming at all, but still think they can predict his next actions ("he's going after Estonia next" etc)

I can't imagine why Ukraine doesn't surrender and try to work on some kind of compromise here- very valiant but do they think they are going to stand any better chance than Iraq did when U.S. invaded?

iraq hadnt a friendly eu to one side

why didnt the three little pigs surrender to the big bad wolf surely it would have worked out ok for them

Whatever else is going on, this ain't good.

Kyiv’s mayor says the city is now completely surrounded and all exits blocked by Russian troops. No way to evacuate civilians.

Siege begins. pic.twitter.com/eND142bcuR

— Polina Ivanova (@polinaivanovva) February 27, 2022

some bits from Echo of Moscow:

- the office of the prosecutor general of russia threatened to charge russian citizens who donate to ukrainian military with treason
- russian ministry of defence insists civilian sites and civilians are not being targeted
- roskomnadzor (federal service for supervision of communications, information technology and mass media) threatened to block russian media sites who publish information from sources other than russian and who refer to what is happening as "war"

(Echo of Moscow continues to refer to it as war* with an asterisk being explained as "roskomnadzor considers information about targeting ukrainian cities and deaths of civilians as the result of the actions of russian military as not reflecting reality, including any materials where the operation is referred to as an attack, an invasion or a declaration of war)

Well I would say Ukraine is the pig in the straw house that is bein gblown down.

WHat kind of world is this? It's kind of crap!

A data point for the "at what cost" file:

Russian bank Tinkoff now offering to exchange rubles for dollars at a rate of 171 rubles per dollar. It was 83 before the European/US announcement about targeting the Russian central bank. Currency market formally opens tomorrow. This is brutal. pic.twitter.com/NsTBI4tvTZ

— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne) February 27, 2022

So if Trump was prez he would be saying "Good job Putin" ? That would be weird. I'm sure other nato people woudl be sad.

I don’t think so. I think he’d ultimately follow the defense establishment line notwithstanding his personal boner for strongmen

I honestly can’t imagine trump tuning on Putin. I don’t see his personal cost analysis favouring what he can get by turning his back on him vs the benefit of sticking by Russia.

⚡️Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, reportedly fired today. Gerasimov was very highly regarded, the most important military leader of the past generation, & the architect of today’s Russian Armed Forces. He’s served as the head of the military since 2012. pic.twitter.com/zlEVbCPvZ1

— Alexander S. Vindman (@AVindman) February 27, 2022

Or maybe not? There seems to be a lot of disagreement in the comments.

Yeah I'm not buying that until I see more on the matter.

Separately, my brain died

Confirmed.

Volodymyr Zelensky is the Ukrainian voice of Paddington Bear. https://t.co/HuXsoSQe7e

— Franklin Leonard (@franklinleonard) February 27, 2022