ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

oh yeah that's pure propaganda

Yes. They couldn't give a fuck what the EU and NATO think about it

"We never had the slightest intention of defending Ukraine, not the slightest. Even though Britain and America and the NATO secretariat to the Bucharest Conference in 2008 came out for NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia (the NATO HQ was completely behind it on American orders), no contingency plans were drawn up, not the most remote or contingent ones, for how NATO could defend Ukraine and Georgia. There was no intention of ever doing that at all.

That raises the question, since we never intended to defend them, of what in God’s name were we doing? Claiming that we were going to admit them to NATO: It goes beyond actual irresponsibility. In my view, this was deeply immoral, to make such a commitment that we had no intention of fulfilling. This does not in any way excuse or justify the Russian invasion or the monstrous lies with which Putin justified this invasion. Maybe this isn’t the moment, but at some stage, I do hope that we have an honest and searching discussion of the errors of Western strategy that led to this disaster"

https://prospect.org/world/worse-than-a-crime-its-a-blunder-russia-ukraine-lieven-interview/

Unfortunately, the current situation is straight out of the WWII playbook: pick a fight and claim the Sudetenland, based on long simmering grievances imposed by the west and insisting it was really full of your people, anyway, but then promise that's all you want. Feckless West sees it as bullshit but does nothing, or next to nothing, which furthers the aggressor's aim of destabilization and potentially future expansion, which they never fully take off the table, because what if they need to defend themselves from outside agitators? So when England and France belatedly form the Agreement of Mutual Assistance with Poland, Germany takes *that* as a threat but really just uses it as a pretense to do what it planned to do all along.

That's the problem with dangling the prospect of negotiation *after* you've already violently invaded a neighboring country, let alone more than once. Even the notion of negotiation comes off a threat, because even negotiation becomes conditional on recognizing the thing that's already happened. And hey, if you refuse to negotiate (which is to say, first recognize the land grab), that's just a sign that *you* are the aggressor, and a peaceful invader - we just want the Sudetenland, that's it! - is forced, forced, to defend itself by any means necessary.

Now, as many/most/all have noted, Putin doesn't have particularly coherent goals, at least not compared to Germany in WWII, and there are other important pieces in play, too (NATO, global nuclear proliferation). But a my way or the highway approach *after* you've already violently invaded makes it really hard to operate under the assumption that you are not willing to do it again, which kind of hangs a cloud over any negotiations.

Its hard to game out what possible terms Russia would accept, when Putin has been saying all along that Ukraine is not a real country and never should have existed.

Russia expects relations with the west to normalise once people understand it was forced to act to protect its security

No comment on the duration of the military operations

They completely lost their minds.

― Van Horn Street, Friday, February 25, 2022 6:42 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

No, I don’t think so. The rhetoric of aggressive military expansion often takes on a form similar to trolling. There’s a “you lose either way” logic to it. Josh I think explained it pretty well.

In other words, I don’t think Putin truly literally believes people will “understand it was forced to act,” that’s more like a veiled threat.

Ukraine claims it's killed almost 3,000 Russian soldiers in the first 36 hours of the invasion.

As ever, you have to take these things with a grain of salt, but anything even remotely close to that number would be stunning – the US lost 4,431 in two decades in Iraq

— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 25, 2022

In other words, I don’t think Putin truly literally believes people will “understand it was forced to act,” that’s more like a veiled threat.

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Friday, February 25, 2022 9:35 AM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Thanks for the explanation!

The unfortunate difference is that the US still has a government with some accountability to the families of soldiers. Putin presumably is willing to just “spend lives.”

Xp to Josh

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar:
Russian forces had suffered the following losses:
Tanks – up to 80
Aircraft – 10
Helicopters – 7
Personnel – 2,800
Armored combat vehicles of different types – 516

that feels like a high number of vehicles as well. i very much would love for that to be true, but there's no way they are not exaggerating.
xpost

even tho it’s obviously out of date kofman’s analysis at War on the Rocks from the end of January is worth reading.

Prediction is always a fraught business, but it seems plausible that Russian forces would seize Ukraine’s eastern regions, as well as the southern port city of Odessa, and encircle Kyiv. The Russian goal would be regime change, perhaps via constitutional reform, and a settlement that would secure Russian influence over Ukraine. From a position of leverage, Russia would try to attain a U.S. commitment to give it a free hand in this part of eastern Europe. With Belarus firmly in Russia’s orbit, Moscow is eyeing using force to change Ukraine’s strategic orientation in an effort to create its own cordon against Western influence. An expanded invasion of Ukraine may not herald a prolonged occupation, but Russia appears prepared for that contingency. Russian force posture can enable a range of choices, but it is difficult to see how Moscow accomplishes any lasting political gains without having to resort to maximalist options.

18 hours ago they were reporting Ukranian losses - soldiers and civilians both - as being at 137, so that number for Russian soldiers seems ludicrous

Putin presumably is willing to just “spend lives.”

This has long been the Russian way, for good and for ill, no?

some very weird posts today

It has been the way of most warfare for a couple centuries, probably at least through Vietnam. The idea of minimal military casualty war is a pretty recent development.

The low casualty number might have been just the results of shelling and missiles and whatnot, or a plane or helicopter here or there. Bigger numbers always arrive when the more exposed troops advance in. Does seem like a big number, though, and regardless can't possibly be particularly accurate.

and kofman’s summary of where he thinks we are now: maximalist war aims are going to be difficult to fulfill despite on paper superiority seems to be the summary of the summary.

Some very early impressions of the last two days. It's an operation with maximalist war aims, and Moscow's thinking on this war seems to have been colored by war optimism. It looked as though Russian forces were expecting a quicker UKR military collapse and easier gains. 1/

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 25, 2022

and a highly necessary caveat

The one thing I will add to my earlier thread, is that we should take care making assumptions on how this war will progress based on the opening 24-48 hours. The Russian military clearly tried something. I think it at best yielded mixed results for them. They will adjust.

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 25, 2022

If Putin had any hopes that the Ukrainian army would fold immediately a la the Afghan National Army, presumably he has been disabused.

i… don’t think the model putin would have been hoping for was afghanistan tbh.

i remember reading boys in zinc by svetlana alexievich and *as with voices from chernobyl* the first entry had me in tears which was unfortunate as i was on the tube.

Not that it really matters what any of us think, but I think it’s extremely unlikely that the Russian military fails or backs down here. It’s significantly stronger in numbers and technology. And for Putin to even partially back off there would have to be some kind of face-saving option where he can claim it’s the victory he wanted all along, and that seems unlikely to me as well.

A prolonged insurgency wearing down an unmotivated Russian army seems more likely.

Its hard to tell if Putin is really as disconnected from reality as his public statements. An autocrat who has been in power as long as he has may have an inner circle that has shrunk to only the few who tell him want he wants to hear.

xp

Afghan National Army was a reference to recent events, if that wasn't clear, not the Russia Afghanistan invasion.

got you.

If Putin had any hopes that the Ukrainian army would fold immediately a la the Afghan National Army, presumably he has been disabused.

Maybe it was smart. I'm not blaming them. Just saying Ukraine army seems to maintaining morale in the face of the Russian assault. Thats an important first test.

No matter what happens on the ground, Russia has already lost:

Russia kicked out of 2022 Eurovision Song Contest by the European Broadcasting Union following Ukraine invasionhttps://t.co/pZ7uOWtOMU pic.twitter.com/ihqQPcbki5

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) February 25, 2022

Interesting that Putin is now openly calling for the Ukraine army to overthrow Zelensky and negotiate with him directly. Seems perhaps a tacit acknowledgment that they are more of a force to be reckoned with than he may have initially hoped.

Or that the demands are politically impossible, so would have to be implemented by an undemocratic military junta.

The fierceness of the Ukrainian defense does at least seem encouraging for the prospects of an effective insurgency if Ukraine falls. I guess I shouldn’t be talking about this as a foregone conclusion, just feeling grim rn.

They know the land, and they have the motivation - Russia might have a massive army, but it doesn't seem like Ukraine has a small one

This is something indeed.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky: "We're all here. We are in Kyiv. We are defending Ukraine."#StandWithUkraine https://t.co/iBJpFarqSL

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) February 25, 2022

wow

the CIR created a map showing russian military activity based on twitter searches

https://maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/russian-ukraine-monitor

A lot of footage is being posted online of Russian military movements along the Ukrainian border. We’re working with the #OSINT community to document, verify & map this information. You can find our map of verified movements here: https://t.co/2uqsSML5Qe pic.twitter.com/ToGku2xX8G

— Centre for Information Resilience (@Cen4infoRes) February 9, 2022

UKRAINE: fear amongst western officials now is that Russia will start bombing Ukrainians indiscriminately and even with thermobaric weapons, if their progress continues to be impeded.

— Alistair Bunkall (@AliBunkallSKY) February 25, 2022

this was kind of my thought as i read reports of the Ukrainian army defensive effectiveness

This is a good feed to follow for some in-depth analysis of how international payment systems work and how severe or not the announced sanctions so far have been (not that I have independent knowledge to verify this information):

https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola

It seems its a lot more complicated than just "Ban them from SWIFT". One thing I take away is that there is clearly a lot further that sanctions could go, and if Russia starts levelling Ukrainian cities, I think some of these other options will come on the table.

Thanks for the links o. nate and Punster.

Something might be up

Strengthening sanctions, concrete defense assistance and an anti-war coalition have just been discussed with @POTUS. Grateful to 🇺🇸 for the strong support to 🇺🇦!

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 25, 2022

'concrete defense assistance' is what they currently need, but getting it in there might be difficult

Zelenskyy has come across very impressively. He's proven very good at standing up for himself and his country, especially given his total lack of political experience.

fear amongst western officials now is that Russia will start bombing Ukrainians indiscriminately

the Ukrainian army is without effective air support. at some point the plan has to be for the armed resistance to scatter into multitudes of smaller units that don't present easy targets from the air. indiscriminate bombing of Ukrainians is kind of baked into that cake.

Sadly there is some precedent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1999%E2%80%932000)

Ukrainian MP, former COO of the local branch of Amazon’s Ring https://t.co/KSF3v0vJ4h

— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 25, 2022

hashtag kalash

"Take these seeds so sunflowers grow when you die here!!"
This woman is a badass:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60525996

That is incredible.

The use of thermobaric weapons (referenced in the tweet above) is one of the bleaker scenarios: a weapon that sucks the oxygen out of a particular area -- a bunker, a subway station, and so on.

Also, this may come to nothing, but:

Document from Ministry of Health shows Russia is clearly preparing for a major medical event where doctors have to be drafted from across the country. The letter is signed by Deputy Health Minister Plutnitsky.

— Emma Burrows (@EJ_Burrows) February 25, 2022

x-post. Sunflowers? Yes, great footage. Bravery.

(I'd just read that many Russian soldiers don't want to be there and have been threatened and something about that clip also made that seem believable).