ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Baltic states as well, which i would think are most at risk after Moldova

i think this is also the kind of thing that has a more or less bipartisan apathetic meh-consensus on, from the american public (to the degree which that has ever mattered). a hot war with american troops directly fighting? i don't think either party has the stomach for that right now, though they often do. but a reboot of the cold war, with military deployment seemingly limited to border patrol and tech, while the contractors make bank all along the way, on both sides of the conflict? that's pretty much the american way imo

xpost well, didn't Hitler start by 'rescuing' a bunch of german speakers in Czechoslovakia?

This may be a superpower standoff but it lacks the ideological nature of the high Cold War. Like does anyone think pro-Putin revolutions are going to start happening in the Americas?

Other than Trump and his sycophants eyeing their portfolios.

I hate to use "they" but they want American troops sent.

I felt the same energy, though of course no one came out and said it. But many of the press questions seemed to imply a certain contempt for sanctions as a weak-willed response.

it lacks the ideological nature of the high Cold War

The USSR was able to add republics and satellite states because of a dense, effective network of communist party operatives.. that won't work here obv

I dunno about effective -- Stalin couldn't get Yugoslavia and Greece in line and fussed over Italy, a rare example of #bothsides because his missions were often as poorly researched as the CIA's.

what do people here think the US should do? Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons under the pretense that we'd protect them in a case like this. Is it not our obligation to help? What can we do that would not risk a nuclear war?

Isn’t it about nationalist autocracies vs democratic nations?

which is which

Biden indicating they will bolster number of troops in Germany, what a timeline.

― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 24 February 2022 bookmarkflaglink

You seem excited by the prospect.

damn give it a fucking break

(xyzzzz if you wouldn't characterize yourself as anti-war / pacifist just let me know, not trying to pigeonhole you)

i'm just curious, what is the anti-war position on this conflict right now? i was a pacifist for a short while, and it was a while back, because i would think about situations like these and what i would want. would the correct thing be to just let russia take ukraine, and also to do nothing in response? or are of you of the putin view, i guess, that the US and ukraine provoked russia and this is the only way it could be? or am i way off on thinking that's what you're thinking?

i mean shit, not like i know what is best. this likely to be a situation where in 10 years everyone's damn, this thing is still burning hot with no end in sight, but i feel like after the next election cycle there could some changes ....

this is the first war i’ve paid proper attention to where the amount of OSINT available is crazy. so much available info. obv like most i’ve followed bellingcat, but seeing real time analysis unfold on the timeline with video footage and analysis, and verification is - to get a bit baudrillard - a complete new way to construct our understanding of war.

I am not excited by a surge of troops in Germany, I just never thought it would happen and at the same time, if it can deter further imperalist adventures from the Russian military, yes it reassures me.

would the correct thing be to just let russia take ukraine, and also to do nothing in response? or are of you of the putin view, i guess, that the US and ukraine provoked russia and this is the only way it could be? or am i way off on thinking that's what you're thinking?

― dig your way out of the shit with a gold magic shovel! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 24 February 2022 bookmarkflaglink

So...you'd like to risk a conflict between countries that have nuclear weapons? Are you ok?

Putin's a fucking monster for this

Biden's a fucking monster for what he did to Afghanistan

I'm so sick of this shit

Yes what Karl wants the most, the artist making loopy gifs who loves baseball, is an all out nuclear war. Great reading.

xp of course i'm not ok xyzzzz, i've been on the ilx slack, everyone there knows what my problems are

i know this is a fucking crazy hypothetical question, but, here me out. if i'm not ok because it's so incredibly ridiculous to risk a conflict with a nuclear weapon-wielding country, what was your stance when the US invaded iraq?

anyways, whatever, i know i'm not going to get any explanation. as fucking terrible as i am, as longwinded and all the bullshit, at least i fucking make a point in the end

*showing myself door, i know*

It’s a fair question to ask, how to answer to an agression without escalating violence? Anyone who think they know exactly what needs to be done and how is kidding themselves. It’s an impossible situation.

fwiw Karl I'm not xyzz and I guess not totally a "pacifist" but would prob define myself as "anti war" and I have zero idea what a correct position here would be, it fucking sucks, but also still feel strongly that a military intervention is not it, and that it's not something we can go to as "welp, we've no better ideas".

xxpost

one thing we could do is try to help the countries accepting refugees

Growing opinion that Putin may be losing his shit:

Bernard Guetta, a member of the European parliament for Macron’s grouping, told France Inter radio on Thursday morning, after military invasion began: “I think this man is losing his sense of reality, to say it politely.” Asked by the interviewer if that meant he thought Putin had gone mad, he said “yes”.

Guetta is not alone. Milos Zeman, the Czech president and long one of Vlaldimir Putin’s staunchest supporters, denounced Putin a “madman” after the invasion.

“All our Russia-watchers, watching his press conferences, think that he’s descending even more into a despotic mindset,” another European diplomat said.

one thing we could do is try to help the countries accepting refugees

― Heez, Thursday, February 24, 2022 3:18 PM (four seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

This looms very large indeed. Hungary and Poland are not likely to be helpful unfortunately.

Gonna start hauling some snacks and juice boxes down to my bunker, which is actually just a crawlspace

https://i.imgur.com/4SjYWgR.gif

100% on refugees, of course.

xp daniel_rf, just to be clear, i don't want a military intervention either. of course not. i'm really worried about where this leads, too. i'd like to think of myself as "anti-war", but it hits situations like this. what can be done? it is excruciating.

(damn, that corrupted simpsons loop is 100% fitting, lol)

Anything that heightens the scenario is bad - sending more troops, moving F-35s to Latvia, flooding regional governments with weapons and money. Expanding NATO has been bad from the start, backing the 2014 coup was bad.

If that resolves to "do nothing" so be it but I find no upside in "doing something" just to do it. The horse is out of the barn here.

"2014 coup"

Revealing choice of terminology there.

What if Latvia wants to be a full part of NATO?

‘Ah sorry a country which should have no sovereignty over you is hurt because it is nostalgic of a time it use to repress you, because of that you can’t join this alliance’.

nobody has ideas. it's impossible obviously. other countries can't stop each other from doing what they want to citizens within that country up to and probably including operating concentration camps and they also can't stop powerful nations invading less powerful ones. if there ever was a general idea that this could be prevented or that the invaded country could be protected then Iraq has put a stop to that.

i think that's generally right, but it's important to note that if it's true, the foundation of NATO and the UN and the oft-cited "no democracy has ever waged a war against another democracy" factoid (extra popular because it allows the citer to make up their own definition of democracy) will crumble. which, shit, i don't know! i don't know what's there to replace it! i just know that this is a key, fundamental building block of post-WW2 live, which is all of us, i believe

The US should leave NATO, so if Latvia wants to join the successor alliance good for them.

Revealing choice of terminology there.

You got me, secretly on Moscow's payroll over here.

i have not read most of this thread (all the good threads get hundreds of replies in a day, it seems), but do people actually think the US is going to attack russia? russia doesn't seem too bothered by using nukes and causing collateral damage. and nato is not going to do anything militarily. so i assume the US and a few other western countries are going to do more passive or indirect attacks (withholding resources, tariffs, financial stuff, basically, and some stealthy so-called "choke points", etc.)

is talk of collusion frowned upon on this message board? though i guess pretty much everything is speculation at this point

What if Latvia wants to be a full part of NATO?

Latvia is already a full member of NATO?

Yes, and that heighten the scenario that Milo absolutely doesn’t want to be heighten because it would hurt Putin’s feelings, nevermind that nations should be able to self-determinate.

doesn’t want to be heighten because it would hurt Putin’s feelings

Yes that's the ultimate concern, totes.

That's right, go on, pick a fight with Milo now and then be all "Why are they picking on me" afterwards.

As per...

I just think Latvia should be able to self-determinate and decides with alliance it should be part of, if Milo considers this to be ‘heightening the scenario’ in that it increases the chances of conflicts between the West and Russia, then so be it, I think it’s on Russia to make a crisis out of NATO expanding. No insults were exchanged, it’s a disagreement, not a fight.

Not yet, but keep trying.

xp of course i'm not ok xyzzzz, i've been on the ilx slack, everyone there knows what my problems are

i know this is a fucking crazy hypothetical question, but, here me out. if i'm not ok because it's so incredibly ridiculous to risk a conflict with a nuclear weapon-wielding country, what was your stance when the US invaded iraq?

― dig your way out of the shit with a gold magic shovel! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 24 February 2022 bookmarkflaglink

I wasn't actually meaning to allude to your posts on the slack when I asked that btw. I don't see what US invading Iraq has to do with anything. Like Ukraine it has no means to defend itself. And countries outside that conflict could not stop the US. Nor can the US stop Russia now.

one thing we could do is try to help the countries accepting refugees

― Heez, Thursday, 24 February 2022 bookmarkflaglink

Right. You being "sick of this shit" is pointless unless you have a nuclear warhead you are willing to point at Moscow.

But Western powers can actually help to deal with refugees.

Gonna start hauling some snacks and juice boxes down to my bunker, which is actually just a crawlspace

I'm going to camp on the Yellowstone caldera and hope for a twofer.

Maybe if we all go back to worrying about nuclear war all the time, music will get good again like it was in the '80s?