aka in hindsight it's easy to say things were inevitable. we have already had big essays explaining why brexit had to have unfolded the way it did, which is plainly bonkers as it could have gone a million different ways at a million different moments.
― Fizzles, Thursday, 24 February 2022 13:36 (two years ago) link
It’s a lot to take during a pandemic. Thinking of all the parents who have to explain this situation to their children.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 24 February 2022 13:36 (two years ago) link
er not that sort of naval. navel.
― Fizzles, Thursday, 24 February 2022 13:37 (two years ago) link
https://i0.wp.com/slimanmansour.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/18x18-in_0005_2021-overlookinng-an-Orange-Grove.jpg?fit=1100%2C1100&ssl=1
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 24 February 2022 13:40 (two years ago) link
_I see this is a team effort.
― OG Bob Sacamano (will), Thursday, 24 February 2022 13:46 (two years ago) link
not to be typically myopically american about it but i feel kinda the same today as i did then!
― STOCK FIST-PUMPER BRAD (BradNelson), Thursday, 24 February 2022 13:50 (two years ago) link
Most people will, myself included, I do not believe it is whataboutism, it’s a similar feeling of seeing something historically atrocious happening.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 24 February 2022 13:57 (two years ago) link
also wonder if a guy like Putin would be in power now if Russia hadn’t been treated like a hotel mattress by the west during the 90s.
Based solely on reading several Svetlana Alexievich books, I say yes.
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Thursday, 24 February 2022 13:57 (two years ago) link
who's going to die mad about it? how many ILXors supported the invasion of Iraq?
― frogbs, Thursday, 24 February 2022 13:58 (two years ago) link
Can't really square this feeling of seeing something historically atrocious happening with running victory laps c&ping posts that got it wrong but ok.
― Daniel_Rf, Thursday, 24 February 2022 14:01 (two years ago) link
fair enough eephus. again, I’m an idiot. I’ll bow out of this thread. if the US decides to get involved beyond sanctions (which don’t ever seem to really do the trick), maybe this time it will we better than not. <-not snark, because obviously anything can happen
― OG Bob Sacamano (will), Thursday, 24 February 2022 14:03 (two years ago) link
*be better than not
― OG Bob Sacamano (will), Thursday, 24 February 2022 14:04 (two years ago) link
l’m a certified idiot sure but it’s hard to say US interests have done much good for former USSR countries since 1991. also wonder if a guy like Putin would be in power now if Russia hadn’t been treated like a hotel mattress by the west during the 90s.
I believe no matter your understanding of US influence on ex-soviet and warsaw pact countries, it is up to the citizens of these countries to decide of their future and that includes who they want to align with.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 24 February 2022 14:08 (two years ago) link
in the same manner that the US has always given the freedom to South American countries to align with whomever they want to, yes.
― calzino, Thursday, 24 February 2022 14:12 (two years ago) link
absolutely US/UK/western media failed to hold their respective governments to account for the invasion of Iraq, for the most part. but what is the relevance? should they just be on team invasion going forward because a good faction of them turned a blind eye to the US or UK's misdeeds (not just Iraq, but many of their past actions)? or keep silent? i don't think criticism of Russia is dependant on having been perfect in the past. real lives are going to be lost – thousands... possibly millions. Russia deserves condemnation from all corners.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 24 February 2022 14:18 (two years ago) link
Because of past shitty US foreign policy, I for one think, for consistency’s sake, they should only be allowed to show support for the shitty foreign policy of other countries.
― circa1916, Thursday, 24 February 2022 14:19 (two years ago) link
My biggest concern:
Energy prices aren’t the only ones soaring. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, and, together with Ukraine, it accounts for nearly a quarter of the world’s total exports. Wheat futures were up nearly 6 percent on Thursday, bringing the year-over-year increase to 37 percent. The price increase will hurt developing nations, where people spend bigger fractions of their incomes on food, the most.
From the NYT live thread.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 24 February 2022 14:23 (two years ago) link
XP I remember a lot of dancing on Russia’s putative grave by the US pundit class in the 90s and even at the time thought, “wow you’re really dumb.”
― Johnny Mathis der Maler (Boring, Maryland), Thursday, 24 February 2022 14:32 (two years ago) link
Whoops way XP to Will
The modern era of bloodless/borderless attacks does not portend positive outcomes:
New: Senate Intel chair Mark Warner tells CNN he’s concerned about Russia launching cyber attacks against US and NATO, which could bleed into Poland in “what could potentially be viewed as an Article 5 attack.”— Hugo Lowell (@hugolowell) February 24, 2022
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 24 February 2022 14:40 (two years ago) link
XP I remember a lot of dancing on Russia’s putative grave by the US pundit class
― OG Bob Sacamano (will), Thursday, 24 February 2022 14:41 (two years ago) link
Finding it difficult to get a handle on what the situation is right now or whats likely over the next 12 or so hours till dawn. It looks a bit more stable than it appeared a few hours ago? Kharkiv holding out ok from what I can tell, contradictory information tho
― anvil, Thursday, 24 February 2022 14:50 (two years ago) link
yeah one thing I hadn't considered about a war in the modern era is how quickly videos from 5, 10, 20 years ago would make the rounds on Twitter under the guise of "this is happening right now"
― frogbs, Thursday, 24 February 2022 14:54 (two years ago) link
plus I guess we are gonna see some dangerously deep fakes
― nashwan, Thursday, 24 February 2022 15:04 (two years ago) link
Everything horrible about today’s society will figure out a way to be a feature in this war yeah.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 24 February 2022 15:05 (two years ago) link
the Monuments Men but they're NFTs
― Bixby in a Samsung I know it's Siri-esque (Sufjan Grafton), Thursday, 24 February 2022 15:07 (two years ago) link
On a related note, Denis Pushilin, head of the DNR, was big into this a few years back:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMM_(Ponzi_scheme_company)
According to contemporary Western press reports, most investors were aware of the fraudulent nature of the scheme, but still hoped to profit from it by withdrawing money before it collapsed.
― Scampo di tutti i Scampi (ShariVari), Thursday, 24 February 2022 15:10 (two years ago) link
what the hell
.@reuters: UKRAINE PRESIDENT SAYS RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES ARE TRYING TO CAPTURE THE CHERNOBYL PLANT— Brad Heath (@bradheath) February 24, 2022
― frogbs, Thursday, 24 February 2022 15:11 (two years ago) link
Yeah, was about to post. There was a passing report that Russians bombed a waste disposal site, too.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 24 February 2022 15:13 (two years ago) link
It’s a pretty straight line from Belarus to Kyiv through the exclusion zone.
― Scampo di tutti i Scampi (ShariVari), Thursday, 24 February 2022 15:14 (two years ago) link
So what happens if/when serious western sanctions hit/kick in and Russia calls that a further provocation and threatens more military action?
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 24 February 2022 15:16 (two years ago) link
This situation might be worse than the Iraq War, starting with the fact that no opponent of the war defended Saddam Hussein; the dictator had no partisans on the most highly rated cable news show praising his strategic vision. Plus, instead of an army emasculated by the Gulf War and a decade of sanctions the Russian armed forces look formidable.
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 24 February 2022 15:27 (two years ago) link
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, February 24, 2022 10:16 AM (eighteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
Are you suggesting american imperalism? How dare you?
(From what I understand and I may be 100% wrong, the Red Line would be actual NATO countries)
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 24 February 2022 15:39 (two years ago) link
I'm hearing from both Ukrainian and Russian immigrants I know irl and while the Ukrainians have the expected outrage, some of the Russians (even the ones who dislike Putin) are basically like, "Fuck the Ukrainians. They helped the Nazis murder my family."
― Chappies banging dustbin lids together (President Keyes), Thursday, 24 February 2022 15:53 (two years ago) link
Many xposts, but thanks for the links, SV. I added them all to my feed.
― o. nate, Thursday, 24 February 2022 15:58 (two years ago) link
How far does anyone want to go back? Because fuck the Russians, they're why my family left what is essentially Ukraine around the turn of the (last) century, to escape anti-Jewish pogroms and conscription.
This situation might be worse than the Iraq War
I think the situation might be worse than anything we've seen since WWII. I can only think of a couple of outcomes: 1) an expanded armed conflict, worst case scenario as prelude to a broader war 2) expansionist-minded Russian occupation marking a return to cold war status quo, or 3) either or both of the above and the eventual election of a collaborationist US government that further bolsters Russia and accelerates or amplifies 1 or 2. Oh, and everyone is nuclear now, too.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 24 February 2022 15:59 (two years ago) link
to be fair to everyone itt nobody has come out with a take even comparably stupid to that of tracer hand's colleague
― imago, Thursday, 24 February 2022 16:11 (two years ago) link
putin is a psychopathic gangster villain madman obv, a real end-stage symptom of the post-industrial tendency towards unrestricted technocratic feudalism, and the sooner someone (preferably one of his own) sticks a bullet through his head the better
― imago, Thursday, 24 February 2022 16:14 (two years ago) link
wait a second, are we pushing the conversation to the new thing that definitely won't happen now
― dig your way out of the shit with a gold magic shovel! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 24 February 2022 16:15 (two years ago) link
i think we need to round up the stagecoaches and maybe do some consolidating, maybe review the recent past and then do the hard work of moving the goalposts of previous 100% confidence predictions so that we can claim we were 50% right
the USA day shift is here; our thread police are the fucking worst and it's me
― dig your way out of the shit with a gold magic shovel! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 24 February 2022 16:16 (two years ago) link
― o. nate, Thursday, 24 February 2022 bookmarkflaglink
Kofman is a good follow. Really holds on from wider speculation as to where it's going, no comparisons to Iraq or WWII. We could use that here.
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 24 February 2022 16:19 (two years ago) link
Anti-war protest in St Petersburg https://t.co/6eNQVPrQln— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) February 24, 2022
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 24 February 2022 16:25 (two years ago) link
― dig your way out of the shit with a gold magic shovel! (Karl Malone), Thursday, February 24, 2022 11:16 AM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
Nah it’s not you Karl (it’s never you), and I do think posts of predictive nature is fine, if only because it helps with anxiety, it’s just that some will insult or demean people who don’t agree with their predictions and it’s gross.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 24 February 2022 16:27 (two years ago) link
― ok what the fuck is happening in the uk (rain) (wins), Thursday, 24 February 2022 16:28 (two years ago) link
yes otm
thread police is not rly it lads its have a fucking word with yrself police which isnt policing its someone saying to u have a word with yrself
― Ár an broc a mhic (darraghmac), Thursday, 24 February 2022 16:36 (two years ago) link
Another one to follow on Twitter. He's not an analyst or a journalist but he posted a very prescient thread back in December, correctly analyzing Putin's intentions (which I linked in the original thread revive):
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch
― o. nate, Thursday, 24 February 2022 16:37 (two years ago) link
KM and VHS, the discussion moved on a while ago and this is getting extremely tiresome
― Muad'Doob (Moodles), Thursday, 24 February 2022 16:39 (two years ago) link
of all things, second captains had a decent intro focusing on putins speech taking a lot from a paper he published last year ito "justification" etc
― Ár an broc a mhic (darraghmac), Thursday, 24 February 2022 16:39 (two years ago) link
k
― dig your way out of the shit with a gold magic shovel! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 24 February 2022 16:39 (two years ago) link