ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

As the Russian annexation of Ukraine escalates, reminder that the UK has been deploying troops along Poland's border with both Ukraine and Belarus to stop refugees entering the EU. This will only intensify as the military conflict does. https://t.co/aZQtNjZxFO

— libcom.org (@libcomorg) February 24, 2022

Sabre rattling

― mardheamac (gyac), Wednesday, February 16, 2022 1:06 PM (one week ago) bookmarkflaglink

The only people really going hard for war are the only people who always are, ie Atlantic Council shitheads and dopes like AA.

Brillant stuff

It’s good that this thread has reoriented to what really matters: settling scores on ilx.

I don’t think you understand the disputed regions, gyac.

none of this is about being right or wrong is it tho - it’s about the probability of outcomes changing over time. as SV has said it was surely likely thinking was contingent and uncertain in such a risky war for Russia. Seeing how the build up of pressure on the borders affected the international response - sabre rattling if you like - may well have been part of the process.

otoh given previous statements maybe this was a long term intent. we don’t know.

it’s possible that highly likely outcomes don’t transpire and vice versa: gotchas don’t really make any sense.

aka in hindsight it's easy to say things were inevitable. we have already had big essays explaining why brexit had to have unfolded the way it did, which is plainly bonkers as it could have gone a million different ways at a million different moments.

Agreed Tracer, but maybe don’t act like you know it all and demean other people’s worries and concerns.

SV and Fizzles, the solid sources are greatly appreciated.

@ChristopherJM looks like another fairly good one.

I don’t think you understand the disputed regions, gyac.

― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 24 February 2022 bookmarkflaglink

The disputed regions understander has logged on.

Yeah thank god for Fizzles’ input.

Less of you would be even better still.

oh good VHS is here

i have a Ukrainian friend in the US who is very depressed and cynical about all of this. she says this has been planned for years, the NY Times was just saying what was obvious to everyone, she says Putin is immune to sanctions, they don't work, and he will take all of Ukraine, and Belarus and Moldova.

Putin Very Bad but honestly can’t imagine a world where his hard-on for Ukraine portends anything worse for the avg citizen there than the US’

I see this is a team effort.

My daughter texted from school yesterday to ask if I thought this was going to start WWIII and I said "no." But honestly, these days? "Maybe." It's already somewhat akin to the start of WWII, that's for sure.

aka in hindsight it's easy to say things were inevitable. we have already had big essays explaining why brexit had to have unfolded the way it did, which is plainly bonkers as it could have gone a million different ways at a million different moments.

It’s a lot to take during a pandemic. Thinking of all the parents who have to explain this situation to their children.

er not that sort of naval. navel.

https://i0.wp.com/slimanmansour.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/18x18-in_0005_2021-overlookinng-an-Orange-Grove.jpg?fit=1100%2C1100&ssl=1

_I see this is a team effort.

not to be typically myopically american about it but i feel kinda the same today as i did then!

Most people will, myself included, I do not believe it is whataboutism, it’s a similar feeling of seeing something historically atrocious happening.

also wonder if a guy like Putin would be in power now if Russia hadn’t been treated like a hotel mattress by the west during the 90s.

Based solely on reading several Svetlana Alexievich books, I say yes.

who's going to die mad about it? how many ILXors supported the invasion of Iraq?

Can't really square this feeling of seeing something historically atrocious happening with running victory laps c&ping posts that got it wrong but ok.

fair enough eephus. again, I’m an idiot. I’ll bow out of this thread.

if the US decides to get involved beyond sanctions (which don’t ever seem to really do the trick), maybe this time it will we better than not. <-not snark, because obviously anything can happen

*be better than not

l’m a certified idiot sure but it’s hard to say US interests have done much good for former USSR countries since 1991. also wonder if a guy like Putin would be in power now if Russia hadn’t been treated like a hotel mattress by the west during the 90s.

I believe no matter your understanding of US influence on ex-soviet and warsaw pact countries, it is up to the citizens of these countries to decide of their future and that includes who they want to align with.

in the same manner that the US has always given the freedom to South American countries to align with whomever they want to, yes.

absolutely US/UK/western media failed to hold their respective governments to account for the invasion of Iraq, for the most part. but what is the relevance? should they just be on team invasion going forward because a good faction of them turned a blind eye to the US or UK's misdeeds (not just Iraq, but many of their past actions)? or keep silent? i don't think criticism of Russia is dependant on having been perfect in the past. real lives are going to be lost – thousands... possibly millions. Russia deserves condemnation from all corners.

Because of past shitty US foreign policy, I for one think, for consistency’s sake, they should only be allowed to show support for the shitty foreign policy of other countries.

My biggest concern:

Energy prices aren’t the only ones soaring. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, and, together with Ukraine, it accounts for nearly a quarter of the world’s total exports. Wheat futures were up nearly 6 percent on Thursday, bringing the year-over-year increase to 37 percent. The price increase will hurt developing nations, where people spend bigger fractions of their incomes on food, the most.

From the NYT live thread.

XP I remember a lot of dancing on Russia’s putative grave by the US pundit class in the 90s and even at the time thought, “wow you’re really dumb.”

Whoops way XP to Will

The modern era of bloodless/borderless attacks does not portend positive outcomes:

New: Senate Intel chair Mark Warner tells CNN he’s concerned about Russia launching cyber attacks against US and NATO, which could bleed into Poland in “what could potentially be viewed as an Article 5 attack.”

— Hugo Lowell (@hugolowell) February 24, 2022

XP I remember a lot of dancing on Russia’s putative grave by the US pundit class

Finding it difficult to get a handle on what the situation is right now or whats likely over the next 12 or so hours till dawn. It looks a bit more stable than it appeared a few hours ago? Kharkiv holding out ok from what I can tell, contradictory information tho

yeah one thing I hadn't considered about a war in the modern era is how quickly videos from 5, 10, 20 years ago would make the rounds on Twitter under the guise of "this is happening right now"

plus I guess we are gonna see some dangerously deep fakes

Everything horrible about today’s society will figure out a way to be a feature in this war yeah.

the Monuments Men but they're NFTs

On a related note, Denis Pushilin, head of the DNR, was big into this a few years back:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMM_(Ponzi_scheme_company)

According to contemporary Western press reports, most investors were aware of the fraudulent nature of the scheme, but still hoped to profit from it by withdrawing money before it collapsed.

what the hell

.@reuters: UKRAINE PRESIDENT SAYS RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES ARE TRYING TO CAPTURE THE CHERNOBYL PLANT

— Brad Heath (@bradheath) February 24, 2022

Yeah, was about to post. There was a passing report that Russians bombed a waste disposal site, too.

It’s a pretty straight line from Belarus to Kyiv through the exclusion zone.

So what happens if/when serious western sanctions hit/kick in and Russia calls that a further provocation and threatens more military action?

This situation might be worse than the Iraq War, starting with the fact that no opponent of the war defended Saddam Hussein; the dictator had no partisans on the most highly rated cable news show praising his strategic vision. Plus, instead of an army emasculated by the Gulf War and a decade of sanctions the Russian armed forces look formidable.

So what happens if/when serious western sanctions hit/kick in and Russia calls that a further provocation and threatens more military action?

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, February 24, 2022 10:16 AM (eighteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Are you suggesting american imperalism? How dare you?

(From what I understand and I may be 100% wrong, the Red Line would be actual NATO countries)

I'm hearing from both Ukrainian and Russian immigrants I know irl and while the Ukrainians have the expected outrage, some of the Russians (even the ones who dislike Putin) are basically like, "Fuck the Ukrainians. They helped the Nazis murder my family."