ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

if you were skint and afflicted with a long term health condition you might be worse off living under Biden!

lets get this sorted

Ukraine question

, but if you ask me which of those two countries has been worse, in terms of doing more damage to the world at large, it's the US (Russia def giving it a go tho!).

so it's just a matter of capabilities?

wrong thread

Adding another layer of confusion (or obscurity?) to the situation is the take I've seen that "the west keeps repeatedly, preemptively burning intelligence to dox potential Russian pretexts for invasion before they could happen." That would be some next level juggling. Russia amasses (and is still amassing?) troops, intelligence indicates Russia may be trying to provoke invasion, west leaks intelligence that Russia may be trying to provoke invasion, some action may or may not have happened that may or may not accelerate aggression but people downplay it because the west has already sowed suspicion that said action could be a phony Russian pretext for aggression.

That seems to be part of the strategy. There is an interesting tension in some of the reporting between ‘aha, the US finally plays Russia at its own game of information warfare’ and ‘the information is all credible and legit’.

As the ridiculous analyst from the Atlantic Council who did the ‘Putin invades this weekend’ tweet that went viral belatedly points out though, this is not at zero cost to Ukraine. Hyperbole has a direct impact on their financial markets, foreign investment and the cost of insurance for air traffic, etc.

Releasing intelligence claims with no evidence behind them also runs the risk of Russia being able to keep up economic pressure on Ukraine by continually feeding duff information to the US to stoke further panic.

Sorry if this has already been posted.

Confirmation of sorts that the Biden White House is deliberately amplifying the slightest rumour about Ukraine until it becomes de facto ‘intelligence’. https://t.co/UOU5pKLQiz

— Elvis Buñuelo (@Mr_Considerate) February 18, 2022

That was interesting, thanks.

The next few days are, among other things, a test of whether disclosure can serve as a deterrent. Kendall-Taylor told me, “It kind of goes back to: What are our strengths in this domain?” If the authoritarian strength lies in misinformation, then maybe the way for a democracy to counter that is through transparency. On one level, it has been heartening to hear national-security officials describing the free press as a weapon against authoritarian misinformation; on another, it sent a slight shiver down my spine to hear a pillar of liberalism discussed as if it were a national-security asset, another quasi-military tool to be deployed. Kendall-Taylor said, “Exposure is part of the battle.”

can anyone tell me what this means for the mullingar town council byelection

Yes, Russia has been amassing troops on the border of Westmeath in an effort to pressure the election of a puppet council.

So, the usual.

yeah appreciate the update but its pretty much as-was alright

There's definitely a weird defensiveness about Russia on the left. Its weird because Russia's government, along almost every dimension, is further to the right than the US government these days.

what’s weird (but certainly not surprising) to me is that the US is willing to back literal neonazis in Ukraine just because they’re putatively anti-Russia

Russian media routinely portray Ukrainian nationalism as neo-Nazism in disguise. Thats one of the pretexts for Russian incursions.

For those who will read my tweet in bad faith, know I recognize there is a white nationalist presence here and they have caused problems, but Azov is brought up to paint Ukraine as a white nationalist haven.

As a Black man who lives here, I can tell you that is 100% FALSE.

— Terrell Jermaine Starr (@Russian_Starr) February 18, 2022

ah yes the Atlantic Council

I want to be clear in case my posts in this thread have suggested otherwise: Putin is a Bad Guy. Seriously.

And yes, there does seem to be a sort of reflexive support (or implication of support) I guess of Russia by folks who are suspicious of US imperialism. And it’s weird. (but I suspect it’s more trolling than anything).

I would rate it’s weirdness factor about on par with liberal defensiveness of Pentagon and CIA

I will go out on a limb and say that Putin sucks. But that's just me.

not me. i like putin. he took his shirt off and rode a horse! he's ripped! plus he's a secret agent

Damn I thought we were about to reach a consensus.

But at least we all agree no one should do anything to try to encourage Putin not to mess with Ukraine because the US is bad too, right?

I'm guessing will was talking about the Azov Battalion?

Ukranian nationalism def historically tied up with fascism and nazi collaborationism in interesting and complicated ways, went to a UCL lecture years ago where a Ukranian academic talked about the difficulties of negotiating the existence of national heroes that proudly wore SS uniforms and so on.

I encourage Putin to personally lead a charge into Ukraine on horseback. I think that would make everybody happy.

don't you think shirtless riding of a bear would be more symbolic?

If Putin invaded Ukraine on a bear, I say let him keep it.

No doubt there are far-right extremists in the Ukraine just as there are in many countries. However, I think the key point is they are a very small percentage of the country overall, and in no way representative of the average Ukrainian who just wants a free and independent Ukraine. Unfortunately when you have a foreign military power occupying parts of your country it sometimes gives more influence to extremists, by legitimating violence as a solution. Your average person will avoid violence and personal peril, so when the situation calls for volunteers who are willing to put themselves in personal danger, sometimes it brings out the nutjobs. No doubt one of Putin's goals is to destabilize the current centrist government by empowering fringe groups.

I don't think anyone talking about neo nazis in the Ukraine thinks that this is, like, most of the coutry's population or anything like that, that would be an insane assumption to make. As I said, I thik will's post is about the Azov Battalion? Don't actually know whether they get any US support, though they certainly got some fluffy coverage in Western media recently.

No doubt one of Putin's goals is to destabilize the current centrist government by empowering fringe groups.

When you resolve that Putin is responsible for whatever you dislike or find distasteful, the rest flows pretty easy.

I didn't mean to suggest Putin is responsible for the existence of these groups, just that his actions are probably empowering them. Maybe its unintentional on his part. He's not all powerful.

He's a tender soul, he kissed a boy "like a kitten" after all

https://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/2006/07/06/d5416d10-a642-11e2-a3f0-029118418759/image1781870x.jpg

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/23/48/eb/2348eb63d423c835e992d4ca346b6991.jpg

he made u a sandwich, but he eated it

Fuck, man, I am just feeling for people in Ukraine and wishing I knew what to do, but of course there is nothing

It definitely seems to have taken a turn for the worse today with the DNR’s extremely low-effort fake evacuation videos.

How it's going, what's the non-western media got to say, etc.

MP Nestor Shufrych of the pro-Russia ‘Ukrainian Choice’ organization gets clocked on live TV by Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov. https://t.co/6E7h8RHKK9

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) February 18, 2022

iirc this is merely traditional ukraine parliamentary behaviour tbh

Where can we get some of these ukranian journalists?

That’s some biased reporting

Sergei Naryshkin, head of foreign intelligence, suggests using potential DNR/LNR recognition as a threat to make Ukraine fulfill the Minsk agreements. pic.twitter.com/NCxCbSFKxW

— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 21, 2022

Then it gets astonishing.
Putin: speak clearly, do you support recognition?
Naryshkin: I will
Putin: You will or you do?
Naryshkin: I support bringing them into Russia.
Putin: That’s not what we are discussing! Do you support recognizing independence?
Naryshkin, flustered: Yes

— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 21, 2022

wait, why isn't anyone making 100% confidence predictions about what will obviously happen?

saving them for their substack subscribers

If Putin tries to deepen anticommunism in Ukraine then I hope the Ukrainian people oppose him… there were actually a number of positive things about the socialist system he seems to ignore. https://t.co/7HNVKmBVyv

— Don Hughes (@getfiscal) February 21, 2022

Thank goodness Putin is only invading with peacekeeping forces.

well, i'll be the first admit that i am not an expert on contemporary military conflict in eastern europe, if i had to take a wild guess, i'd think they're going to try to do an annex - bloodless or not, i have no idea - of the two puppet states they established a few years back. "peacekeeping force", but establishing a presence on the newly expanded borders into ukraine and trying to spread influence (or trigger a counterattack strong enough to justify further expansion) from the there.

putin's speech earlier today was pretty chilling

If you want to know how Ukrainians react to Putin's speech, here's a glimpse: moms on Facebook discuss putting stickers on their children's clothes, when they go to school, indicating their blood type. Make no mistake: this speech was perceived as a declaration of war on Ukraine

— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) February 21, 2022

he certainly offered a lot of food for thought on the topic of Ukrainian history

Good I've cleared a lot of work off my desk just in time for WWIII.

xpost

Is that a famine joke

We're completely overestimating the importance of London to Putin. On the one hand, financial centres are global. Losing access to the City would be as great a blow to Russia as losing access to the Channel Islands to the UK.

— Dan Davies (@dsquareddigest) February 22, 2022