ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Sure. I don't think anything in Applebaum's analysis contradicts in any way. Unless you think limiting the sphere of Russian influence is an inherently bad thing I guess. Or are we ceding some kind of legitimacy to Putin's expansionism?

And also, I think there are people in Ukraine who care about making Ukraine successful?

idk what to tell you. If ‘the West’ was serious about putting Ukraine on a path to economic and political development and integration it would be a good thing. If the West only really cares about breaking economic and political ties between Ukraine and Russia, it would be a bad thing.

There’s about 45m people in Ukraine who want to make the country a success and their combined power is only marginally more significant than yours at the moment.

(The Ukraine isn't a rogue state, but the way Putin is acting reminds me of Kim Jong Un. Russia's resources may be comparatively vast, and Russia may have the attention of the West, but I wonder if secrecy, disharmony with the population, and testing of credulity in the context of modern communication are similar enough to propel disaster on a faster timescale than anticipated. But I am reminded above of the Arab Spring, the limited power of the people, etc.)

If ‘the West’ was serious about putting Ukraine on a path to economic and political development and integration it would be a good thing. If the West only really cares about breaking economic and political ties between Ukraine and Russia, it would be a bad thing.

Obviously. But there's been at least some effort toward the former, right? The U.S. and EU — plus of course Soros and the NGO world — have supported civil-society efforts and pushed for anti-corruption reforms etc. I get the skepticism and even cynicism about any discussions of democracy vs. autocracy in Ukraine, but I also think it's too easy to write off the entirety of western interests as nothing but window-dressing for an old-fashioned game of Risk.

Similarly I don't think it's an either-or whether Putin is trying to undermine NATO influence or democratic legitimacy more generally — the efforts go together.

(If Putin were Trump, I would think he just wanted more headlines than Navalny. Russia also seems to have a long tradition/history of social unrest.)

How’s that working out eight years after Euromaidan? Do the oligarchs have less influence? Is the country less corrupt?

The most reformist leader Ukraine has had (his own oligarch ties aside) is currently looking over his shoulder for a domestic coup, while trying to jail the guy the West was fawning over circa 2016.

You don’t need to be cynical about anyone’s intentions to see that ‘Ukraine must be stopped from becoming an example of a better path Russia could follow’ doesn’t really fly.

I was just thinking that Putin might need a distraction and that power might have gone to his head rather than that thiings are good in the Ukraine. I guess sadly enough this is more about Russia than the Ukraine.

You don’t need to be cynical about anyone’s intentions to see that ‘Ukraine must be stopped from becoming an example of a better path Russia could follow’ doesn’t really fly.

I don't think the fact that it hasn't become an example of a "better path" reduces Putin's interest in it continuing not to. Or do you think Putin isn't trying to undermine democratic legitimacy both in Ukraine and across the EU/US? Because it sure seems like he is.

"do you think Putin isn't trying to undermine democratic legitimacy both in Ukraine and across the EU/US?"

Putin doesn't need to do any work there your two parties do a fine enough job of it. Seeing as it's all about the US, who have been undermining democratic legitimacy throughout many regions of the world since Putin was a microscopic dot in his dad's ballsack.

I feel embarrassed that when I went through an obsessed with the Soviet Union stage 10 years ago I read half of the Applebaum Gulag book! I'm not getting into any nuance here or even reading the piece. She's a fucking clown who writes fiction that impresses impressionable posho liberal tools who need to believe their own wretched country occupies some kind of moral high ground in this.

though it is true that the Soviet ties of the Russian president, most notably his years spent as a KGB officer, matter a great deal

Deserving only of the biggest and most exaggerated jackoff motion you can make.

Even if they did, it wouldn't fly with the six or seven people who control the national economy or the legions of corrupt officials in their pockets.

lol, that is what my Ukrainian ex-pat friend says about his home country. There is a sense of futility (on his & his family's part) that it's basically a pawn and there is no foundation for it to not be dysfunctional.

fwiw his perception of his country is also colored by the fact his family is Jewish, and Ukraine is "a bit anti-Semitic"

Reaching back to Applebaum's analysis of 'what Putin wants'. It is probably correct in all its particulars, because it has the advantage of ignoring 'what Putin can achieve'. That whole list of 'wants' is just his Christmas wishlist and portraying it as a list of achievable goals is unforgivably lazy and disingenuous.

As for her analysis that Putin's motives are directly tied to the trauma of the breakup of the USSR, its hogwash. Putin may be the most personally wealthy head of state on earth. His greatest motivation is to ensure the indefinite continuation of his personal wealth and power. Bullying Ukraine is useful in that it helps him politically with the Russian public.

and Ukraine is "a bit anti-Semitic"

Heard a lecture once on that "thematic" restaurant they built in a former Jewish ghetto where the waiters have fake noses and you're supposed to haggle over the bill, yikes.

It’s also the only country other than Israel to have had a Jewish President and Prime Minister at the same time, tbf!

The Normandy talks about Minsk in Berlin unsurprisingly didn’t go anywhere:

https://tass.com/politics/1401333

The risk is that if Zelenskiy agrees to implement the Minsk accords, he gets framed as a traitor and couped.

If he doesn’t implement them, Russia might unilaterally declare recognition of an independent LNR / DNR. Failure to respond to that with military action leads to Zelenskiy being framed as a traitor and couped.

NEW: The US believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, and has communicated that decision to the Russian military, three Western and defense officials tell me.

— Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin) February 11, 2022

how the hell does this guy know that?

"three Western and defense officials tell me"

so like a cowboy and two generals?

Wouldn't the Russian military already know?

Not if the US doesn't tell them, per trusted twitter sources

Plenty of long-tenured autocrats have unshakeable faith in their own strength and contempt for the weakness of their opponents, so it's quite possible he'll go ahead with it.

Asked about my earlier reporting, @JakeSullivan46 says the US has not concluded that Putin gave the order to invade.

— Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin) February 11, 2022

this fuckin guy

"oopsie"

Make your mind up guys.

Predictable from one of Twitter's most popular bullshit genres, the "I got the scoop" tweet first ask for forgiveness later because in the end I got the attention/visibility either way idiots.

Why not just skip the middle man and announce that Russia has already successfully invaded and occupied Ukraine and save everyone the stress, time and suffering?

Russia has already successfully invaded and occupied Ukraine

And that would be true... Crimea

That was just a lil' invasion.

impressionable posho liberal tools who need to believe their own wretched country occupies some kind of moral high ground in this

It’s not too hard to occupy the moral high ground in this situation, just don’t be the guy who’s invading a peaceful neighbor.

you mean like the US has done throughout its entire existence?

(xp to o. nate)

you mean like the US has done throughout its entire existence?

iirc, last time the US invaded a peaceful neighbor was in 1848. all those other times we generally had even less excuse.

oops. forgot all those islands we invaded that share an oceanic border. so, I'll retract the first sentence, but not the second one.

nailed it

Putin has big weekend plans in Ukraine: 1) he's going to cut power and heat, knock out Ukrainian navy and air force, kill general staff and hit them with cyber attack; 2) then install pro-Russian president and 3) resort to full-scale military invasion if Ukraine doesn't give in

— Melinda Haring (@melindaharing) February 11, 2022

Deputy director @ACEurasia @AtlanticCouncil.

xpost "If I Did It," by Vlad Putin.

lot of you lads been watching Red Dawn all weekend yeah?

Putin may be the most personally wealthy head of state on earth. His greatest motivation is to ensure the indefinite continuation of his personal wealth and power. Bullying Ukraine is useful in that it helps him politically with the Russian public.

― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Wednesday, February 9, 2022 7:06 PM

I tried to drill down into this a little bit, suspecting that Xi might be a contender. There's a lot of speculation out there about Putin's net worth but not much hard data. Most estimates show him being at least an order of magnitude richer than Xi tho. (Xi and Trump are probably on par.)

If you're a de facto dictator, what does money even mean? You have as much of anything as you will ever want, on demand, as long as you hold power, and it's hard to see Putin or Xi willingly going anywhere. And if they went unwillingly, then money likely won't help them.

Dictators still need to negotiate power and keep wealth onside to some extent if they want to hang on to their position (skeptical of to what extent it makes sense to treat Putin and Xi as if they were in comparable positions, tbh).

Likewise immense wealth has been of much use to many an ex-tyrant getting themselves a comfortable place in exile.

shocked that autocrats are wealthy, you don't get that shit in a democracy

hi guys just started playing really enjoying it so far but finding it all very complicated has anyone got a user guide for how to start eg week one of this, ive selected biden as my player but havent gotten too far into the save so would be open to picking one of the others and going from there!

you want to max out your balls stat as soon as poss

Trump is massively in debt and his businesses hemorrhage money left and right

Putin might actually be the richest man on the planet

Emotions running high and I let them get the better of me. I still expect action this week but Putin may drag this out. We still don't know. Bottom line is that I recognize that I need to be more judicious. https://t.co/clc9c8gm8s

— Melinda Haring (@melindaharing) February 14, 2022

"it was a goof!"

So if that person now think it might not happen, does that mean ... it is going to happen?