Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

no, that was me

I have multiple indoor things planned this week, some for work, others social. Most people at most of them will be vaxxed/boosted, but I'm sure not everyone. There is definitely still stuff I avoid, and I wear masks in stores etc even if I'm the only one, but we're definitely at a stage — especially as it's colder and outdoors is not a viable option in most situations — where there's going to be a lot of wing-and-a-prayer stuff. And of course if/when our local numbers turn bad again I'm sure I'll adjust as needed. But we're coming up on two years of this, there's only so much you can expect of people.

xpost @lfr3d S0t0, Lord of Sin

I love the specificity of "an abandoned Anglican church."

Me, I prefer the thrill of orgies that take place in the basements of Southern Baptist churches during services but who am I to police anyone else's behavior?

they call them 'revivals' for a reason.

I feel like most of the time, I am OK hanging out with my wife and cat at home, watching Netflix and going on walks and getting takeout. Well before the pandemic, my social life had dwindled to the point that I wasn't doing much else, anyway. But there are certain things I miss: movies in theaters, drinking in bars, impromptu hangouts. If I were living alone and starved for attention/entertainment, I'd probably venture out and take more risks. As it is, I can't convince myself that those are risks worth taking.

I guess the problem now, though, is that I don't know when they ever will be. I foolishly assumed that once vaccinations started, then it would just be a matter of time before the virus ceased to be a matter of concern, and that I would gradually ease back into a pre-pandemic lifestyle. But that obviously didn't happen. If only I knew when all of this would end, I could at least determine whether I was okay waiting that amount of time.

i would pay $400/hr for time in a british pub right now

This discussion is exactly right -- people are just different in what they need. For me, whether I go to a movie theater or a bar has negligible impact on whether my life feels worth living, but -- that's me. I went to a party last weekend with neighbors I like that I definitely didn't "have" to go to, I wore a mask even though few other people did, I recognize I elevated my risk by doing so, so be it. You do the things that really matter to you and you skip the things that don't matter to you, and which things are which are going to be different for everybody.

(Though at least for me, the pandemic has taught me that there are things I thought mattered to me a lot and which I just don't particularly miss. I will surely start going to see live music again; but I thought I would really feel a loss from not seeing live music and now I feel more like it was a habit. But a habit I expect to pick up again!)

Yeah. The point of enjoying life, it seems to me, is doing things you don't have to do. I don't need to eat inside a restaurant, I don't need to read 1100-page Rebecca West travel lit, but I do so because I feel like it.

xpost - jaymc puts it really nicely, that really sums up a lot of feelings I've been having.

A large part of my frustration has to do with the moving goalposts, which is only natural and expected as the pandemic evolves and science catches up, but it feels like they just keep moving further away from where we are today and rarely ever feeling closer. Most specifically in my case, the biggest influence on my decision making and risk taking in the past few months has been having an unvaccinated child under 12 at home. When he was scheduled for his first shot (he's actually getting the second today), I started to look forward to maybe easing back into a few things that I still hadn't felt great doing just yet. But with the science around Omicron still unsettled and some pretty dire forecasts, I've pretty much tabled those thoughts of reengaging in certain activities... at least until we (hopefully) know more in a few weeks.

I would LOVE if there were places to hang out and be social in this town that required vax checks or negative tests

Lately, looking at the vaxed numbers by ten-year increment age groups, I had the thought “I should hang out with more old people!” bc in this county they are 95%+ vaxed, compared to ~60% overall

the one and only time i've been asked to show my vax card anywhere has been at a backyard punk gig i went to over the summer

My guess is that the first four weeks of omicron data will be used to simply draw a circumference around where it is and how much of it there is. The next four to six weeks will allow a better idea of how rapidly it is spreading in various vaccinated and unvaccinated populations and how severe the symptoms are. The relevant point of comparison will ofc be delta, since it is by far the dominant strain atm.

iow, by late January, I think it should be possible to get our arms around what kind of a problem omicron presents. until then, I'll let the scientists do their jobs and try not to get too het up. delta's plenty enough to deal with already.

I'm guessing it will be spread far and wide well before that

things in my metro area are worse than theyve ever been - hospitals recently passed 100% capacity and the national guard has been mobilized to assist, masks in public indoor settings are (still, in december 2021) as rare as hens teeth. wife & i were being extra careful in anticipation of thanksgiving with family, cancelled the day before due to multiple people getting breakthroughs. i'm assuming omicron - whether it turns out to be not-that-bad, bad, or very bad - is not going to improve the situation.

on the one hand i echo jaymc almost word for word - as much as i deeply miss crowded pubs, gigs, and theaters, it remains very easy to convince myself not to visit them. (it helps that we've been having friends over the house somewhat regularly.)

but on the other hand, i am getting lower & lower expectations that safe prepandemic life will return in my area anytime in the medium-term. i truly cant envision how the local situation will change for the better, short of mandatory vax or just massive numbers of the unvaxed population dying off. which i guess means that, as much as i dont want to, i probably am going to reach a point where i'm going to just resign myself and say fuck it. which is weird to realize.

I guess I feel like I have eased back a lot, as conditions have changed, and also, um, uneased, when conditions changed in the other direction. I don't feel like I'm clenched down tight and have to hold on for some never-specified timespan into the future. I feel like I ate inside in restaurants and went into crowded places more in the summer, then less again in the fall when delta got big (in part because I wasn't boosted and because I had an unvaxxed under 12), then more again after I got my booster and my kiddo got her shots (big family Thanksgiving, etc.) now maybe less again as I wait to see what the omicron situation looks like, but I'll do more again in the hopeful scenario we find out that my current vax/booster combo looks good again against omicron, and if that turns out NOT to be the case, I'll do more again once the omicron-specific booster is available, which it surely will be within a few months. So it hasn't been a grim "hold on just a little bit longer, no a little bit longer, no a little bit longer" situation for me, and maybe THIS is one answer to the question upthread of "what is the possible benefit of paying close attention to the COVID news as it comes in?"

otm

and if that turns out NOT to be the case, I'll do more again once the omicron-specific booster is available, which it surely will be within a few months.

Not trying to single you out eephus, but genuinely curious about this point because I've seen widely varying positions on the timeline for any theoretical omicron-specific booster. Some people seem to be saying that it would roll out in a few months, but I've also seen people saying we should pump the brakes on this idea and that the media has done a huge disservice by implying one would be just around the corner when the more realistic timeline for developing, approving, manufacturing and distributing an omicron-specific booster would land somewhere more in the 6-12 months range.

otm x 2

(To eephus)

the media has done a huge disservice by implying one would be just around the corner when the more realistic timeline for developing, approving, manufacturing and distributing an omicron-specific booster would land somewhere more in the 6-12 months range.

I agree, the Moderna prez is now saying March, whereas originally I feel like they were saying "we can do it in six weeks," but a lot of that has to do with what the ask from the FDA is going to be and I can see that changing. Anyway, if it's March, it's March, I can do that no problem; as far as I've seen what nobody is saying is "omicron could be square zero and we have to develop a vaccine all over again."

Anyway the best-case scenario of my booster still meaning I'm drastically unlikely to get really sick from omicron is very much alive and let's hope it pans out that way.

I'm glad we're having this conversation.

I think that for me, I know when I'm taking risks, and I avoid doing so as much as possible, but it's not April 2020 anymore, and at a certain point, I need to allow the little joy in this world into my life where I can. Sometimes that involves drinking too many whiskeys and singing showtunes in a piano bar filled with other queer people.

Not every night, or even every week, but once a month or so? They require proof of boosters at the door? Sure.

Omicron requires a new vaccine now?

Hopefully not? But there have been a number of stories about it because Moderna have said they are already working on one to combat it.

Not a new vaccine. An updated version of the existing one that targets Omicron

You can safely ignore anyone who claims that any variant will render vaccines useless (or that microneutralization assays to evaluate variant antibody escape will result in emergence of said variants). https://t.co/Cr4M5fy6yd

— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) December 6, 2021

afics, Moderna doesn't have to sink a lot of money into developing an omicron booster at this point. the real money comes into it when they have to ramp up large-scale production. they wouldn't be doing that until they've done trials and are confident about approval and large-scale demand. there's no reason why they wouldn't be working on an omicron booster. if omicron is a bust, they're not out much if they shut down the project.

This is, I guess, a biotech CEO, citing an analysis by an astronomy student, with no methods or data referenced, and some bizarre trends visible. Naturally, everybody is freaking out about it. https://t.co/RHkqGy4g34

— Dr Ed (@notdred) December 6, 2021

xp OK fine you found somebody who thought we were back to square zero with vaccines but it's somebody with <1000 followers who thinks omicron is a South African biowarfare experiment so....

I feel like most of the time, I am OK hanging out with my wife and cat at home, watching Netflix and going on walks and getting takeout. Well before the pandemic, my social life had dwindled to the point that I wasn't doing much else, anyway. But there are certain things I miss: movies in theaters, drinking in bars, impromptu hangouts. If I were living alone and starved for attention/entertainment, I'd probably venture out and take more risks. As it is, I can't convince myself that those are risks worth taking.

I guess the problem now, though, is that I don't know when they ever will be. I foolishly assumed that once vaccinations started, then it would just be a matter of time before the virus ceased to be a matter of concern, and that I would gradually ease back into a pre-pandemic lifestyle. But that obviously didn't happen. If only I knew when all of this would end, I could at least determine whether I was okay waiting that amount of time.

― jaymc, Monday, December 6, 2021 8:23 PM (two hours ago)

This for me too, pretty much. I thought vaccines were the way out.
Perhaps counter-intuitively, the fact that I'm almost guaranteed to catch it via my kids' school etc has made me think that some of the harder sacrifices I've been making aren't really worth it? But then I'm talking about a small variance in what I'm allowing myself to do, rather than making serious life changes/travelling frequently etc - like I'll move my threshold down one notch. If Covid can wait until after I get boosted some time next year, that'd be grand.

Each single event you pass up probably isn't worth "getting covid" but cumulatively - missing 50, 100 events so you avoid 'the one', is a bit of a different question.

otm, it's not always missing the one thing, it's the cumulative thing of missing many of them. When we ordered take-out Saturday night, it was from one of our favorite places and I didn't feel it all a "loss" by not going in to eat there instead. But when I realize we haven't eaten there in damn near two years now, I do feel a bit of a loss because we just really enjoyed the staff and the vibe of being in there - sticking around for an extra drink or two, trying something unique because we heard someone else order it, etc. It's those small things that don't really weigh into any single decision not to do something, but after long enough you do realize how much you miss it.

I think key beyond just dealing with omicron (no matter how potent it is) is getting the booster train rolling for those under 18 (at least in the US). All those teens were vaxxed last spring/early summer, which means their immunity is fading (even though iirc there was some research that showed the vaccine was even more effective in that age group than it was in adults). That indicates a pretty wide window of vulnerability on the near horizon: winter, omicron and another huge wave of fading vaxxes in that teen demographic.

We've been easing into activities again. We go into everything cautious, of course, but there are also frankly fewer people out and about still. I don't know how I would feel in a huge crowd, though of course on that front 90% of America has already just jumped right into it and my own perspective have been skewed by my particular locality.

Yeah, I hope boosters for the 13-18 year-olds comes very soon. Talked to a friend the other night who said since Thanksgiving their fully vaxxed 13 year-old went from the family member they were least worried about to the one they were most cautious about.

Fucking ERIC TOPOL of all people shared the Tweet being criticized in this thread:

This is, I guess, a biotech CEO, citing an analysis by an astronomy student, with no methods or data referenced, and some bizarre trends visible. Naturally, everybody is freaking out about it. https://t.co/RHkqGy4g34

— Dr Ed (@notdred) December 6, 2021

Because the original tweeter is his friend. I'm starting to lose faith in his ability to vet what he shares. Literally every other expert is shitting on the validity of the graphs, but Topol boosted it.

I'm fully boosted at this point and have finally started trying to resume something resembling a "normal" social life but now omicron has me doubting if it's ok to just hang out maskless indoors at a (vax required) bar with friends. Like, I treasure the "normal" feeling of mask-free indoor partying but was already concerned if it was bad etiquette to keep my mask down, knowing that there was no obvious way to signal to everyone there that I'm boosted. Now omicron has me doubting if I should continue to go out at all. Luckily, I don't have any immuno-compromised or unvaxxed people in my circle but I don't want to contribute to the spread. I've got tickets for a gig this Friday that I'm intent on attending but might have to scale back after that. I'm recently single and now living alone so the prospect of another winter of shutdown is even less appealing than before.

I have been living p much normally for the majority of the pandemic (while following the public health mandates as they exist in bc, which aren't super stringent) and I recommend it for fully vaccinated people who are not around immunocompromised people and are in good health. covid isn't going away. there's no reason to think omicron is worse than delta as far as anyone can tell. live a little. if you're double vaxed and boosted covid will probably be pretty light for you if you get it (I just had it, I am back to 100% health, it took just a week).

just out of curiosity, if you were told that you had a 3% chance of death or a lifelong serious health deficit from a purely elective surgical procedure, let's say, removing a birthmark on your neck, would you rate that as "I probably would be fine" and go ahead with it? Or would that seem like more risk than necessary for something you could easily choose to avoid?

I was going to go to a funk band at our local bar and neither my wife nor another friend wanted to go.

just out of curiosity, if you were told that you had a 3% chance of death or a lifelong serious health deficit from a purely elective surgical procedure, let's say, removing a birthmark on your neck, would you rate that as "I probably would be fine" and go ahead with it? Or would that seem like more risk than necessary for something you could easily choose to avoid?

― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Monday, December 6, 2021 4:42 PM (thirteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

this isn't even remotely similar odds to a healthy, vaccinated person's risk of dying from covid.

Aimless, you're omitting some factors there. Boostered and went to four shows last week. Not 100% comfortable (or even 85%), but I'm with Jim.

this isn't even remotely similar odds to a healthy, vaccinated person's risk of dying from covid.

― 《Myst1kOblivi0n》 (jim in vancouver), Monday, December 6, 2021 4:59 PM (thirty-nine seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

on reflection it's probably not even remotely similar odds to a health, unvaccinated person's risk of dying from covid

Yeah, and again, my concern is less my own health and more that now-familiar fear of unknowingly being a vector. The unknowns of omicron have me feeling doubt yet again just as I was starting to feel invulnerable from the booster.

this isn't even remotely similar odds to a healthy, vaccinated person's risk of dying from covid.

true. but that wasn't the question.

ok. yes, it was a trick question.

My kids got their second shots a week ago. In spite of that, I am sympathetic to the reasoning of countries such as Finland who are taking a more cautious approach with 5-11 year olds.

https://thl.fi/en/web/thlfi-en/-/thl-recommends-coronavirus-vaccinations-for-at-risk-children-aged-5-to-11-years-for-the-entire-age-group-require-more-information-on-safety?redirect=%2Fen%2Fweb%2Fthlfi-en%2Fwhats-new&fbclid=IwAR3hCV2YZFqA4nZQGg3GE_KbBBF-IzFHhp5yPTUt3M9vqRhwyvGviWVQBMY

” The main reason why THL does not recommend vaccinations at this point for all children aged 5 to 11 years is that their burden of disease is small. Infections in children of this age are usually mild and severe disease is extremely rare compared to other vaccine-preventable diseases. When the burden of disease is small in one’s own group, very few adverse effects are accepted. If society aims to control the epidemic by vaccinating children who themselves benefit only a little from the vaccinations, having reliable information on safety is even more important”, says Chief Physician at THL, Hanna Nohynek.

My older one was nauseated for a couple of days after shot 2 and then complained briefly of chest pains, which scared me a bit. The other one ran a fever for a day and then was fine. I ultimately chose to get them vaccinated because I want them to have their lives back.

Because I want them to have their lives back and I believe the safety risk is likely very small, to be clear. But like I said, the reaction made me nervous. She was sicker than when she had COVID.

I think it's highly unlikely I'd die of covid. What I have seen in my double-jabbed peers is that it's largely unpredictable whether it'll be a breeze or give you trouble longer term. Even a few months of being exhausted enough not to be able to work, with unknown longer implications, is bad news for me. Plus passing it on to family.

right that’s the thing with kids. the risk is vanishingly small but i’m visiting my at-risk mom for christmas and everybody is vaxxed to the maxx apart from my 10-y-o who isn’t vaxxed at all. feels like a pretty big chink in the armor.

Apparently everyone in my wife's family was too scared to ask if my sister-in-law's (uk) libertarian leaning husband was vaxxed, and as we're planning on christmas with everyone at my at-risk parents' place it was my responsibility to ask. so i did, and he isn't, and now i'm made to feel like the bad guy for suggesting we might have to cancel christmas based on his garbage choices. he has magnanimously offered to take a pcr test a couple of days before and my parents are ok with this, but still. arsehole.