Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

Good evening!

Virologists I follow seem to be less worried (which isn't to say NOT worried but confident we're not back at square one immunity wise).

Not that you need to be to have a serious wave but there are other confounders that need answering like:

*Is it as virulent, more virulent, or less than other strains? (Sadly, this will probably take months to answer).

*Reinfection, how long ago did these reinfected get infected the first time? Which strain? Did they get vaxxed after? A recent study indicated 36% of infected don't create antibodies. And they don't necessarily last forever.

*Omicron didn't have much to replace as Delta was very limited at the time Omicron showed up. Reinfections happened at an alarming rate, but it's hard to extrapolate how it will react in a country like the US, where Delta is exploding in some regions, less so in others.

*It was easier to extrapolate what Delta might do elsewhere after it hit the UK as the UK had a higher level of vaccination at the time and cases were still growing at an alarming rate. South Africa has only 28% of it's population fully vaccinated, and much less boosted. So it's hard to map this to more vaccinated populations.

*Whether or not vaccine induced immunity is better than natural infection only also matters. A lot of studies seemed to say vaccine immunity was superior but now there are scientists publicly debating whether it truly is that much better to make a difference re: Omicron.

*How will boosters impact Omicron?

It's worrying but there are still a ton of unanswered questions. I don't think it's going to be a nothing burger but just gonna try and be patient.

That there are already voices claiming with firm confidence that the virus is more/less virulent is fucking stupid

One thing I think we can say with high confidence is that a lot of people globally who aren’t vaccinated and haven’t had covid before are going to get covid (possibly almost all of them) and the implications of that haven’t changed since 2020.

Yes that much is true

Okay folks, time for a South Africa update, focused this time on severity of disease.

First up, the report from hospitals in Tshwane (the district furthest along in Omicron wave) is essential reading, as is thread from @miamalan https://t.co/5GNwrNJHsk
https://t.co/2U0wkjNFgy

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) December 4, 2021

don’t worry guys

We're eight months into this pandemic, and Donald Trump still doesn't have a plan to get this virus under control.

I do.

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 16, 2020

Okay folks, time for a South Africa update, focused this time on severity of disease.

First up, the report from hospitals in Tshwane (the district furthest along in Omicron wave) is essential reading, as is thread from @miamalan https://t.co/5GNwrNJHsk
https://t.co/2U0wkjNFgy
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) December 4, 2021
― Cool Im An Situation (Neanderthal), Sunday, 5 December 2021 01:23 (thirty-six minutes ago) link

I need to find an up to date source, but I think this thread is getting one very important thing wrong, or eliding one very important fact: as far as I can find, the Gauteng province vaccination rate is NOT high. It's high *for South Africa.* As of about two weeks ago, the *total number of doses administered* was 6,689,000. But the population is over 12 million.

This is arbitrary, but if you assume that, say, 3/4 of those doses have gone to people who have had their first and second, and the other 1/4 are first dose onlies, that's only 40% fully vaccinated at best.

Meanwhile, South Africa's total vaccination rate is 24%. I guess to be fair he also cites the high number of people who have already had COVID. But I thought the experts were saying natural immunity is lower than vaccine immunity. In any case, it doesn't seem like you can assume that it's immunity causing the lower severity rate vs mutations in the virus.

It's also interesting to me that they have a statistic for "incidental COVID admissions" (people who were admitted for other conditions and then a test showed they had COVID). And it's 3/4 of COVID hospitalizations. I wish they would report that statistic here. If those are included in "COVID hospitalizations" then it really exaggerates the severity of the wave.

in the UK you get pcr tested for free if you (say that you) meet certain conditions, eg having one of the three main symptoms.

in SA I believe there are no conditions but it costs approx $50 to test. this will exclude a lot of ppl from testing, so it's no surprise that it's not being caught (and a sample sequenced) until hospitalization.

It’s definitely not surprising, it’s just that that means we are including what are merely positive tests in the hospitalization rate. So that really distorts any assessment of the severity of a variant - if it’s more contagious it’s going to inevitably lead to more “COVID hospitalizations” if you define that as anyone hospitalized with anything who also has a positive COVID test.

Our high school, I suspect as compromise, is finally doing a bunch of shit they should have been doing from the start. They are providing KN95 masks for all kids and asking everyone to be more diligent about it. They are spacing people out at lunch and, because there really isn't enough space to do that, allowing all grades to go off campus to eat. And maybe most importantly of all, they are saliva testing all kids in PE today. The way it worked before was so dumb they might as well have done nothing (and functionally did). Before, saliva testing was opt-in (it still is!), scheduled during lunch, and - most pointless of all - optional. So kids first had to opt in to the program, then take time out of their lunch to wait in line to be tested. Needless to say, apparently approximately 100/3400 kids participated. Making everyone get tested during PE makes soooooo much more sense, and should hopefully provide a more accurate picture of the state of things. Reinstating sports and activities will be the reward for good results/habits.

Oh, love this final addendum to the latest memo:

One last note: We need students to respect each other’s privacy. It is not ok to pressure fellow students to reveal their vaccination status

Given how serious Omicron could easily be, some people might be breathing a sigh of relief if the worst possibilities are ruled out (I think they will be). But that still leaves a lot of possibilities most of which are Really Not Good. However this is not a thread about that 1/n

— Bill Hanage (@BillHanage) December 6, 2021

A little over a week since it was announced it is already clear that Omicron is really serious. Some important pieces of evidence have begun to coalesce. While the worst outcomes still seem unlikely, what we have is quite bad enough to be going on with, a thread, with nuance 1/n

— Bill Hanage (@BillHanage) December 5, 2021

1/zzzzzzzzz

Will you stop?

I'm just tired of the social media whiplash -

"Omicron is actually not as scary as it sounds, here's why"

*scroll*

"Here's why the news about Omicron is all terrible and scary"

Not that anyone is necessarily wrong, it's just all so fucking exhausting.

My point being, obviously, yes, I get that we don't know everything yet. Maybe both the optimists and the pessimists need to tone it the fuck down until we do know a little more.

I like doom and gloom as much as the next person, possibly more, but on that last point, check out this needlessly alarmist WaPo headline:

British vaccine developer Sarah Gilbert says next pandemic ‘could be worse’ than coronavirus.

Well, yeah.

I asked my mom, a retired but still licensed physician who spent most of her career working in low-income pediatric clinics, if we (the world) would have handled covid better had it been much more deadly, and her response was "we'd all be dead." Love ya, mom!

Stick with Peter Hotez imo. He's been ahead of the curve most of the pandemic. And isn't a doomer or a false-hoper

Q: Will we be made safer and saner by obsessive following of each new tweet and each potential new interpretation of a potential new development - plus the subsequent tweets saying why the previous new interpretation was wrong?

Or will we be better off just getting our shots and wearing our masks and keeping our distance as we have been all along?

Like, seriously, is there some different way I should go to the grocery store because of the new name of the flavor of thing we're all justifiably terrified about and doing our best to curtail?

Good read:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/omicron-variant-best-strategy-omicron-boost-original-vaccine-rcna7451

Okay I read that but really I just want to know whether to sometimes go to the grocery store because we need milk and I don't quite understand why delta means I probably can, but omicron means maybe I shouldn't... or... something?

Like, I am really not following what this stuff means in terms of how to live

wear a mask, get boosted, get milk

I mean, fuckin delta is still a big problem. Take the usual precautions.

Thanks, Alfred. Right, so, is there any reason for normal citizens to obsess over which variant is burbling where, and what the leading edge of science is saying about, like, any of this?

Because I don't have the time or energy to follow the twists and turns, and I don't quite understand how or why any normie non-scientist is supposed to keep up with it. Like, if any of you are doing so, um, cool, I guess, but I don't quite understand why this is where you're putting your mental energy rn

I like doom and gloom as much as the next person, possibly more, but on that last point, check out this needlessly alarmist WaPo headline:

British vaccine developer Sarah Gilbert says next pandemic ‘could be worse’ than coronavirus.

that headline is lifted from the guardian. when people complain about the nominally serious press in the US getting things wrong, i am always like "how many levels are you on you are like a little baby".

Alfred otm, really.

I do agree that obsessively following every new wrinkle, not to mention the thousand hot takes spurred by each new wrinkle, is probably doing all of our heads a disservice. I had consciously stepped back again in recent weeks and was fairly successful in doing so, but Omicron being omnipresent everywhere has made that even more difficult.

I sort of keep going back and forth between "things will be better again someday" and "well, I guess today is the new normal and I should adjust to that fact and plan accordingly". The latter is probably more healthy overall and avoids the false hope of the former, but it also means not planning to someday resume some of the things we still aren't doing (vacations, indoor concerts, indoor dining, etc.), which can lead to a different sort of despair.

xxxpost I mean the thread is quite literally titled Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

where I live there's been a sense of things trying to get back to a manageable level, so Omicron news is definitely a factor in keeping the guard up for the foreseeable future.

YMP, your approach is entirely sane and sensible, but it's unrealistic to think that the masses of data and interpretation being produced by the world's scientific community in their efforts to address a deadly global pandemic won't be combed over obsessively by people experiencing heightened fear and anxiety in regard to that same deadly global pandemic.

maybe we could start a thread for people to say "i'm following this stuff the right amount and the rest of you are following it the wrong amount".

They were enforcing capacity at the UPS store just now, line out the door. First I've seen that in a long time. I guess it's possible it's just more of an issue right now because of the holiday season.

YMP otm but also otm for it to be pointed out that this is the thread for the behaviours seen in this thread

Were it not it would be fair to tell the five posters itt to stop posting about covid its not doing them or anyone else any good but this is the thread for it

point taken! if you are following things the right amount for you, then you are following them the right amount

my statement was that I don't get it - but hasten to note that I don't need to get it. It is not so say that you should care less or more or whatev, sorry that I wasn't clear there

Going to admit: I will continue to mask and do the proper things, but I was at a crowded piano bar on Saturday night that required boosters to get in, I don't have regrets, I'm tired of not living a life worth living.

I've also been out and about, or should I say in and about, though still avoiding crowds.

xpost honestly that's the hardest thing for me. i'm not living a life anywhere close to the one pre-pandemic (for reasons having to do with the pandemic and completely unrelated), but I get by because I do some things that provide social fulfillment while still being cautious.

at some point, i have to want to live for reasons other than "other people depend on you". I have those right now. idk if I would if I was stuck indoors all day for two more years.

for some reason, people hear that and they i'm about to attend orgies and roll around nightly on the bodies of 400 unvaxxed strangers in the remains of an abandoned Anglican church

no, that was me

I have multiple indoor things planned this week, some for work, others social. Most people at most of them will be vaxxed/boosted, but I'm sure not everyone. There is definitely still stuff I avoid, and I wear masks in stores etc even if I'm the only one, but we're definitely at a stage — especially as it's colder and outdoors is not a viable option in most situations — where there's going to be a lot of wing-and-a-prayer stuff. And of course if/when our local numbers turn bad again I'm sure I'll adjust as needed. But we're coming up on two years of this, there's only so much you can expect of people.

xpost @lfr3d S0t0, Lord of Sin

I love the specificity of "an abandoned Anglican church."

Me, I prefer the thrill of orgies that take place in the basements of Southern Baptist churches during services but who am I to police anyone else's behavior?

they call them 'revivals' for a reason.

I feel like most of the time, I am OK hanging out with my wife and cat at home, watching Netflix and going on walks and getting takeout. Well before the pandemic, my social life had dwindled to the point that I wasn't doing much else, anyway. But there are certain things I miss: movies in theaters, drinking in bars, impromptu hangouts. If I were living alone and starved for attention/entertainment, I'd probably venture out and take more risks. As it is, I can't convince myself that those are risks worth taking.

I guess the problem now, though, is that I don't know when they ever will be. I foolishly assumed that once vaccinations started, then it would just be a matter of time before the virus ceased to be a matter of concern, and that I would gradually ease back into a pre-pandemic lifestyle. But that obviously didn't happen. If only I knew when all of this would end, I could at least determine whether I was okay waiting that amount of time.

i would pay $400/hr for time in a british pub right now

This discussion is exactly right -- people are just different in what they need. For me, whether I go to a movie theater or a bar has negligible impact on whether my life feels worth living, but -- that's me. I went to a party last weekend with neighbors I like that I definitely didn't "have" to go to, I wore a mask even though few other people did, I recognize I elevated my risk by doing so, so be it. You do the things that really matter to you and you skip the things that don't matter to you, and which things are which are going to be different for everybody.

(Though at least for me, the pandemic has taught me that there are things I thought mattered to me a lot and which I just don't particularly miss. I will surely start going to see live music again; but I thought I would really feel a loss from not seeing live music and now I feel more like it was a habit. But a habit I expect to pick up again!)

Yeah. The point of enjoying life, it seems to me, is doing things you don't have to do. I don't need to eat inside a restaurant, I don't need to read 1100-page Rebecca West travel lit, but I do so because I feel like it.

xpost - jaymc puts it really nicely, that really sums up a lot of feelings I've been having.

A large part of my frustration has to do with the moving goalposts, which is only natural and expected as the pandemic evolves and science catches up, but it feels like they just keep moving further away from where we are today and rarely ever feeling closer. Most specifically in my case, the biggest influence on my decision making and risk taking in the past few months has been having an unvaccinated child under 12 at home. When he was scheduled for his first shot (he's actually getting the second today), I started to look forward to maybe easing back into a few things that I still hadn't felt great doing just yet. But with the science around Omicron still unsettled and some pretty dire forecasts, I've pretty much tabled those thoughts of reengaging in certain activities... at least until we (hopefully) know more in a few weeks.