SB 51: the California politics thread

orange county voted for biden more than 3/4 of those counties voted for trump and no one would call OC a heavily democratic county (yet).

and the GOP has changed a lot since Bush Sr... the last Republican that carried CA in a presidential contest; the erudite country-clubbers are out, the maniacal mouth-breathers are in

No by 11 is my prediction.

I hope so, that would be enough

lol

The exits show "no" up by around 18 points or so.
If so, those early Newsom votes may be enough to yield an early callhttps://t.co/BawJ29htc8

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 15, 2021

haha bye bye california's serious republican politician

So “No” crosses 60% in SD County. Also Elder got more than twice as many votes as Faulconer in KF’s home county. pic.twitter.com/43q22xyX18

— Andrew Keatts (@andy_keatts) September 15, 2021

An amusing immolation.

I've seen enough: the vote to recall CA Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) fails.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 15, 2021

Our first result: "no" at 72 percent in Napa.
Newsom won 65 percent of the vote in Napa in 2018, when he won 62 percent statewide, so this is a strong showing for him in the early going--even considering that the early mail votes were expected to be strong for him

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 15, 2021

If, hypothetically, turnout matches 2018 levels, then "yes" will need 85% of what's left to win.
Obviously a much higher turnout can nudge that number down, but...

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 15, 2021

Whole lotta nothing

“Voters gather in North Beach bar in hopes of a successful recall.” “Nearly two dozen people gathered at the Grant and Green Saloon to drink and watch for eventual election results. The mood was excited as people sipped on beer and played pool. Several people, including 34-year-old Richard Maher, voiced their support for San Diego Mayor Kevin Falconer”

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-s-gubernatorial-recall-election-16456758.php

This is my neighborhood but it is not at all representative of my neighborhood

Oho, San Francisco just showed up & bested Alameda.

88% to 12% there for Newsom so far, among 245K early/mail ballots.

— Taniel (@Taniel) September 15, 2021

Gavin Newsom is leading so far... in Orange County.

58% to 42% among the 720,000 ballots already counted.

This will tighten as more ballots are counted (early leans Dem), but for reference in 2018 Newsom won it by just 0.2% among 1.1 million votes. Nothing like what GOP needs.

— Taniel (@Taniel) September 15, 2021

i'm calling it

sleep tight, CA. nothing could possibly go wrong

You say this now

NEW: Got a peek at some early CA-recall returns and folks, you're not going to believe this... pic.twitter.com/qFSSiaPZiw

— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) September 15, 2021

many have been saying

Anyway, AP should be calling this soon enough.

Decision Desk HQ projects Gavin Newsom will be retained as governor of California.

Race Called At: 8:21 PM (Pacific)https://t.co/ObrAQC9TCH

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) September 15, 2021

I would not call this a packed party.

Other networks might have called the race, but we’ve got Fox at the Elder party and they’re not Arizona-ing this one pic.twitter.com/o7n105xXsG

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) September 15, 2021

AP call.

BREAKING: California voters reject effort to remove Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom from office in recall election. #APracecall at 8:46 p.m. PDT. #Election2021 #CAelection #CARecall

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) September 15, 2021

And that's that.

Fox call onscreen, party getting slightly quieter pic.twitter.com/XKfqUOJFeY

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) September 15, 2021

Should have had an option for “hell the fuck no”. Would have won by wide margin.

congrats CA. 2 more years of non-apocalypse

Well, strictly speaking 1 and a couple of months, but anyway.

maybe the recallers will get mad & team up with the State of Jefferson secession weirdos & they successfully seccede & they hold recalls five times a year and leave the rest of us to go about our lives

Remaining slate of Republican gubernatorial candidates, serious contenders all, said to be distraught pic.twitter.com/JP1knJW4zd

— NoLongerYourFriendHat (@Popehat) September 15, 2021

$276m but kevin faulconer's career is over swings and roundabouts

Imagining the tang of desperation in that room

Elder campaign manager Jeff Corless onstage. "It's just the beginning, right?" he says. "We've got a long night ahead of us."

I've covered *close* races where candidates didn't concede after an AP call, but not one this lopsided.

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) September 15, 2021

I'm glad this vote negated Kevin Faulconer

If Larry Elder is who the Republican Party of California wants to nominate in 2022, have at it

ELDER CONCEDES

"Let's be gracious in defeat," Elder says. "We may have lost the battle, but we are going to win the war."

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) September 15, 2021

umm, no you're not

over my dead body

that's how wars work

it's not going to be much of a war

we aren't going to elect this asshole as our governor, ever

the least those assholes can do is reimburse the state for the cost of this bullshit.

am curious about how people voted on the second question

I couldn't vote for anyone, but am curious what percentage of people voted for a replacement, and who did they vote for

looks like the majority were left blank

#CAGov Recall Update
+30,633 votes from LOS ANGELES County
RECALL Y: 35.80%
RECALL N: 64.20%

46.59% Elder (R)
9.92% Paffrath (D)
8.69% Faulconer (R)
5.67% Ross (D)
4.44% Cox (R)
3.17% Kiley (R)https://t.co/PmV0tcdJe3 pic.twitter.com/33oaSz2fN1

— CATargetBot (@CATargetBot) September 15, 2021

caitlyn running a strong 13th

i voted for one of the Green ones

Nixon was born in California; Reagan was a product of California.

And Elder was the best they could come up with?

both Nixon and Reagan are dead fwiw

True that

Anyway, it's now clear that Newsome's victory was all part of 'The Plan':

With the contest decided, QAnon believers quickly coalesced around the narrative that Newsom had to win in order for their "plan" to go into action.

"Is there any reason to think that the team of cyber experts on the Space Force haven't tracked this election just like they did with the 2020 one?" one user posted on a popular QAnon forum. "That it's a case of allowing the crime to be committed in order to hold the perpetrators accountable seems likely to me."

"I'm sure Space Force has all the details of the Cali fraud that they KNEW was coming," another added. "Newsom is trapped. GITMO awaits."

Newsome's victory is indeed flawed and bad, but Newsom did all right.

dead nixon and reagan would've done better than elder, i think

xps

Elder did much, much better than the last guy they ran for governor. I see him as an ongoing concern.

Someone really needs to introduce these Q people to choose your own adventure books.

xp Much better? Not...really?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_gubernatorial_election#Results_2

If you take the basic yes/no as a de facto gubernatorial election, then Newsom's still doing better, and even as final votes are tallied I can't see it adjusting that much.

In that he'll make a lot of noise and could likely be the prospective winner in a GOP primary, no doubt. But that'll just make it easier to paint him as a sore loser.