SB 51: the California politics thread

Jerry Brown had excellent instincts but a huge fucking blindspot on housing (which I do believe is a huge issue).

lol ... speaking of mayors who became governors (yeah I know he had been governor before as well as after) ... I could rant about Jerry's housing policy as mayor of Oakland, and how the building of hundreds (maybe thousands by now) of market rate and luxury apartments and condos in my neighborhood has seriously demonstrated the flaws of YIMBYism ... as the majority of these units are vacant, meanwhile the unhoused communities keep expanding mere blocks from this housing.

i might regret saying this, but i've pretty much stopped worrying newsom is going to lose

um, this little detail in Playbook this morning. @GavinNewsom
recall leader -->

"...Heatlie, the recall’s founder, tells POLITICO he was missing from his regular radio gig last week because he caught the coronavirus. Heatlie told POLITICO he has not been vaccinated..." https://t.co/ikP7CvklRw

— Angela Hart (@ahartreports) September 7, 2021

Just up the road, by a freeway exit, I saw two brand new signs zip-tied to a chain link fence: DEMOCRATS FOR THE RECALL and ASIANS FOR THE RECALL, the latter including some Chinese characters. There was no "paid for by" or URLs or anything, just these bogus org names.

There were gone the next day.

where was this fence?

I saw two brand new signs zip-tied to a chain link fence

A little voice inside my head said "Don't look back, you can never look back."

This has been a test of the ILX obligatory response system. Had this been an actual response it would have been funnier.

I saw an ILX in the Home Depot parking lot the other day ...

The fence is where the 580 meets Park Blvd in Oakland

1. remove that definite article when talking about 580 if you want to rep Oakland
2. oh yeah, I know that fence lol

He’s been repeating this line, a quote from a highly critical la times oped, on the stump. It doesn’t seem like a vote winner but what do I know

Elder onstage now: “Say hello to the black face of white supremacy!” pic.twitter.com/NXWFZqHFRe

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) September 8, 2021

Well, his proposed reparations for former slave owners should strike a chord in orange county

(I'm actually kinda glad he's the front runner)

the guy who started the recall has said his candidacy has been "unhelpful" so yeah

Now that it looks like Newsom will prevail, yeah.

*sotto vocce*

"why couldn't we get a WHITE white supremacist?"

Well, his proposed reparations for former slave owners should strike a chord in orange county

― Andy the Grasshopper, Wednesday, September 8, 2021 4:47 PM (one hour ago)

CoCo County too -- in parts. I drove through Contra Costa County today -- it really does get warmer. #negativwisdom

https://i.imgur.com/vj0dgW1.png

The https://t.co/yhzYavvEFf campaign site has a “Stop Fraud” button.

Upon clicking it, visitors are sent to a site called https://t.co/hID0ZD0xSD that claims he already lost tomorrow’s California special election due to fraud. pic.twitter.com/wuBVX9MRE3

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) September 14, 2021

I think most people are in agreement at this point

There hasn't been a republican elected to statewide office since 2006, so that fraud is clearly very entrenched and effective

wake up sheeple!

Many QAnon believers think California is majority Republican. In the weeks after the 2020 presidential election, QAnon discourse was full of baseless assertions that Trump won California; in reality, Biden received 11 million votes to Trump’s 6 million.

In an attempt to sow the seeds of this “rigged” election narrative, one popular QAnon forum has been filled with stories pushing California election misinformation. One highly upvoted story in recent days was headlined: “Gov. Gavin Newsom warns Californians: ‘You will all die of COVID if I’m recalled.’” Although this is written as a direct quote, Newsom never said this...

California used to be majority Republican ... in our lifetimes, and in many of theirs too. There are some counties that are still heavily Republican. Conversely, there are people that live in liberal/progressive regions that are shocked when they realize a significant part of their state is like "those other places" (e.g. Texas, Florida)

Yes, these people are ridiculous though.

it me tbh

I’ve never been inland, though.

population density how does it work

i mean i get what you're saying sarahell but there aren't actually many counties left with lots of people in them that are *republican*, much less *heavily republican*.

the only counties with a turnout of more than 100,000 people that voted trump (kern, placer, tulare, el dorado) all went at most 52-53% for trump. if you live in one of these places and think you live in a *heavily* republican county then you're just not paying attention.

orange county voted for biden more than 3/4 of those counties voted for trump and no one would call OC a heavily democratic county (yet).

and the GOP has changed a lot since Bush Sr... the last Republican that carried CA in a presidential contest; the erudite country-clubbers are out, the maniacal mouth-breathers are in

No by 11 is my prediction.

I hope so, that would be enough

lol

The exits show "no" up by around 18 points or so.
If so, those early Newsom votes may be enough to yield an early callhttps://t.co/BawJ29htc8

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 15, 2021

haha bye bye california's serious republican politician

So “No” crosses 60% in SD County. Also Elder got more than twice as many votes as Faulconer in KF’s home county. pic.twitter.com/43q22xyX18

— Andrew Keatts (@andy_keatts) September 15, 2021

An amusing immolation.

I've seen enough: the vote to recall CA Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) fails.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 15, 2021

Our first result: "no" at 72 percent in Napa.
Newsom won 65 percent of the vote in Napa in 2018, when he won 62 percent statewide, so this is a strong showing for him in the early going--even considering that the early mail votes were expected to be strong for him

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 15, 2021

If, hypothetically, turnout matches 2018 levels, then "yes" will need 85% of what's left to win.
Obviously a much higher turnout can nudge that number down, but...

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 15, 2021

Whole lotta nothing

“Voters gather in North Beach bar in hopes of a successful recall.” “Nearly two dozen people gathered at the Grant and Green Saloon to drink and watch for eventual election results. The mood was excited as people sipped on beer and played pool. Several people, including 34-year-old Richard Maher, voiced their support for San Diego Mayor Kevin Falconer”

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-s-gubernatorial-recall-election-16456758.php

This is my neighborhood but it is not at all representative of my neighborhood

Oho, San Francisco just showed up & bested Alameda.

88% to 12% there for Newsom so far, among 245K early/mail ballots.

— Taniel (@Taniel) September 15, 2021

Gavin Newsom is leading so far... in Orange County.

58% to 42% among the 720,000 ballots already counted.

This will tighten as more ballots are counted (early leans Dem), but for reference in 2018 Newsom won it by just 0.2% among 1.1 million votes. Nothing like what GOP needs.

— Taniel (@Taniel) September 15, 2021

i'm calling it

sleep tight, CA. nothing could possibly go wrong

You say this now

NEW: Got a peek at some early CA-recall returns and folks, you're not going to believe this... pic.twitter.com/qFSSiaPZiw

— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) September 15, 2021

many have been saying

Anyway, AP should be calling this soon enough.

Decision Desk HQ projects Gavin Newsom will be retained as governor of California.

Race Called At: 8:21 PM (Pacific)https://t.co/ObrAQC9TCH

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) September 15, 2021

I would not call this a packed party.

Other networks might have called the race, but we’ve got Fox at the Elder party and they’re not Arizona-ing this one pic.twitter.com/o7n105xXsG

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) September 15, 2021

AP call.

BREAKING: California voters reject effort to remove Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom from office in recall election. #APracecall at 8:46 p.m. PDT. #Election2021 #CAelection #CARecall

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) September 15, 2021

And that's that.

Fox call onscreen, party getting slightly quieter pic.twitter.com/XKfqUOJFeY

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) September 15, 2021

Should have had an option for “hell the fuck no”. Would have won by wide margin.

congrats CA. 2 more years of non-apocalypse

Well, strictly speaking 1 and a couple of months, but anyway.

maybe the recallers will get mad & team up with the State of Jefferson secession weirdos & they successfully seccede & they hold recalls five times a year and leave the rest of us to go about our lives