Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

We have a long-planned, delayed for a year+ family function tonight. Relatively small, just a handful of out of towners, every single person totally vaxxed, and only 6 people over 60. Of those, two are extra cautious, with double masks even outside. Another couple just got back from a cross country road trip to visit other family, but they were as safe as they could be and regularly tested. The venue itself has a big back open patio that will get much use, and a big front window that can (and will) be opened up for extra circulation. So all things considered, I am hopeful this event can be pulled off ... uneventfully. Of course, between colds and allergies my entire family sounds sick already, but 'tis the season.

Next weekend is Pitchfork, and I'm pretty hopeful about that, too. It's always been among the most reasonable of festivals, and there's no reason to believe that streak will end when reason is needed the most.

Oh, and in the meantime, I learned more about my unvaxxed peripheral pseudo-family member and yeah, he's not crazy but he's a good example of how fear and hubris can make you overthink yourself into a corner. He does have a hereditary condition that requires medication that gives him pause when it comes to the vaccine. However, the condition he has would only potentially make a Covid case *worse.* In the meantime, he's come to his conclusions through "research," but as well researched as he may be, he's not a doctor, and if there was any more proof needed that some people will justify their bad decisions no matter what, this has apparently been the progression:

"I have a condition that my research has told me may make me a poor candidate for the vaccine."
What does your doctor say?
"My doctor said to get the vaccine, but he doesn't know about it as well as I do, and he doesn't really care, anyway."
So why not get a new doctor?
"There are no other good doctors here."
Why not contact an expert in your condition somewhere else and ask them?
"..."

Again, as far a I can tell he's not a total loon, but lunacy runs in his family. His dad is a doctor but supposedly estranged and some kind of kook as well, and his mom is a QAnon nut who they keep at arm's reach. So I guess on the spectrum he's better than the alternative, and he's by most accounts personally pretty cautious. Still, I have no idea what his end game is. He apparently said something about a new J&J vaccine in the works that could be safe for him (?), but in the meantime he's got a co-morbidity and a young kid, so he's kind of walking around with a big bullseye on his back.

another unfollow of a scientist/MPH I used to trust, based on this skewering by Dr Angela Rasmussen, who I trust much, much more:

Yep. Monica Gandhi has repeatedly pushed her “variolation” hypothesis as part of her larger back-to-normal optimism and COVID minimizing. Complete lack of humility or appreciation for the scientific method.

— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) September 7, 2021

always took Gandhi with more of a grain of salt than more reputed authorities, but it's frustrating that it's hard to tell whose voices to trust. I used to just wait for news articles to 'aggregate' scientific consensus but as the latest WaPo article shows, sometimes the media has a sketchy idea of who an 'expert' is or they get their conclusions completely wrong.

really hoping he and Topol don't regret these words but:

Worried about the Mu variant?

May be Lambda?

How about C.1.2? That sounds scary

Don't

While we are still learning, doubt they'll displace Delta

And our vaccines should hold up fine

I don't lose sleep over new variants

I worry about people's fatigue with the current one

— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) September 6, 2021

honestly, excess fear about new VOI/VOC while we still have Delta utterly wreaking havoc seems misplaced. Some of these variants, like lambda, are literally already in the US, but in such small numbers that it can't compete with Delta.

there seems to be this belief that variants kind of just 'stand in line' and that when one finishes, another takes over. that is kind of what happened with Alpha - Delta, but only because both happened to be more transmissible than the last dominant strain. no evidence (yet) that any of these VOC are going to be as contagious as Delta - in fact, more likely that they're not.

also no evidence that prior immunity from Delta due to infection wouldn't help prevent infection with new variant, or that vaccines would be evaded to the point to be ineffective (almost all of the newest variants, like Lambda, and Mu, have few if any studies on vaccine effectiveness). What made Delta so formidable is how contagious it is, the much larger viral load. Basically gives vaccines a 'stress test'. If Delta were more virulent (meaning more deadly), but only as contagious, or less contagious than Alpha, we would be in a much different, less horrifying situation right now.

I think it's worthwhile keeping an eye on all of these as our understanding of the pandemic has shifted many times and predictions that looked good suddenly fell apart, so I think even Ashish would say "but things could change". but it seems any time I share any minorly positive news lately, friends respond "so what, the next variant is gonna come in and finish the job".

One of the newer twists I've seen the misinformation brigade pushing on Twitter recently is that the vaccines "were pushed out too soon". Not that these folks believe anything is necessarily wrong with the vaccine but, somehow, by starting the mass vaxx campaign while the virus was still raging it "forced new mutations" that wouldn't have happened if we had waited for the virus to take a more natural course. Essentially they argue we should have waited longer to get folks vaxxed? It's weird and being pushed by decidedly NON-experts who have shared misinformation in the past, but it seems to be popping up more frequently in the past week or so and I was wondering if some more prominent armchair expert was pushing this idea.

humanity got really lucky (well, and did the work/fought like fuck) that we had a vax ready to go. just thinking about what we’d be facing with delta otherwise gives me the fuckin creeps.

Exactly what keeps popping into my head when I read those batshit takes.

also the vaccines are actually helping to stop mutations, so those loonies are completely wrong there. not that you don't know that.

frustrating to see that plus the "all studies say masks don't work" being shared as bad received wisdom.

Ugh, yeah, that mask one seems to be back in full force as of late too.

We historically have never before had this level of micro-scrutiny on the development and mutation of a virus in both science and the public media. It's helpful to remember that. COVID does not mutate more or more rapidly than any other virus -- actually less rapidly than many on an absolute basis. My default is not to worry about a new variant unless there is demonstrated cause for worry, because the clickbait is going to keep coming and you'll never sleep.

It’s delta

We're at the point in the news cycle where people are freaking out about "post" delta variants, so hopefully this helps:

— Scott Frazier (@safrazie) August 4, 2021

One might argue that the halfassed layman's micro-scrutiny is more easily transmissible and mutates at a much higher rate than the virus itself.

I mean I follow this stuff more than most people and probably more than is healthy but there is no point in following variant stuff. It doesn’t change anything for us personally.

I quit reading it a while ago, but have a friend that sends me TikToks from scientists about them daily.

she also sent me a text from a friend who is supposedly an epidemiologist with the CDC who sent a weirdly-worded text that said "I'm scared about Lambda cos they say the vaccines don't work". it...didn't sound like something a CDC employee would say, even on the sly, but I didn't question it cos....reasons.

(maybe a dumb question but what happened to epsilon, zeta, eta, theta, iota and kappa?)

(They moved off-campus)

Your Delta variant name is ... FLOUNDER!

somehow, by starting the mass vaxx campaign while the virus was still raging it "forced new mutations" that wouldn't have happened if we had waited

perhaps we should remind these people that the delta variant emerged in a very crowded country of 1.1 billion people, at a time when almost no one living there had been vaccinated. then we might see how they fit that fact into their hypothesis.

It looks like we're about at the peak of the Delta SARS-CoV-2 wave in the US (figure based on @CDCGov data). A thread on current circulation patterns and the impact of Delta. 1/14 pic.twitter.com/gfy9iC8SqA

— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) September 7, 2021

wouldn't have found this but Topol RT'ed it in support, surprisingly

Strange world, when it's considered 'good news' to be nearing the peak of the third or fourth deadly surge (I've lost track) of a pandemic disease, but I take my good news wherever I can find it these days.

The good news is that (so far) the huge wave that ravaged less-vaccinated states isn't spreading into places with higher vaccination rates, suggesting that maybe, just maybe, the level of vaccination we have in many parts of the country is going to be enough to keep a lid on things even with Delta.

once again i am urging people to look at the vaccination rate and the case rate in the UK

Angela Saini hosted a webinar news thing on Covid a couple of months ago which I had hoped to rewatch. Not seen it again though. But seemed to be pretty informed.
Not sure if 2 months ago is already old though.
But best info available to the UK at least at the time I would think.

I think there are enough subtle differences between the US and UK vaxx rollouts, "lockdowns", etc that I'm not sure it's an apples to apples comparison at this point. Obviously it's a useful guide, but I think this wave has defied expectations in several ways, but we'll see. I don't think we're out of the woods yet, but I do think the more heavily vaxxed states are avoiding the worst of the current wave which, while far from ideal, is a much better position than we were in entering fall 2020.

I wasn't expecting the heavily jabbed states to escape, but then again why didn't I? Maybe when it's your turn for y'all to rush indoors to eat or hang when the thermostat plunges I'll change my mind again.

Yeah I think winter is going to be the real test for us, to be certain. But it's not like we are all outside right now (well I am), restaurants are open and, from what I can see when I walk by, doing surprisingly brisk indoor business.

My unscientific opinion: unless the restaurant is shit-packed, I don't think they're spreader events as much as packed bars, weddings and other ceremonies, and mixing unjabbed households indoors.

For sure, I just bristle a little when I see the northern, more vaxxed states described as "living outside" right now because... it's not true. Those indoor events are still happening!

Which isn't to dismiss my fear about winter, not at all, it's going to be rough.

Unrelated question: American Airlines doesn't require COVID testing before boarding a domestic flight, no?

just dropped my daughter off at her first day of school
pretty hard but thankfully minneapolis public schools seems to be doing as much as possible.

mask mandates for students and teachers. we actually gathered on the playground field and all the classes lined up, then they let them in one at at time like boarding a plane to minimize hallway traffic. they are doing spaced, assigned seating in the lunchroom, so if one kid gets it they can contact trace to exactly who was sitting where.

i dunno, fingers crossed.

a big part of parenting has been discovering these glib cliches like "they grow up so fast" and "you can't protect them from everything" are so terrifyingly, profoundly true and you feel it so deeply

Unrelated question: American Airlines doesn't require COVID testing before boarding a domestic flight, no?

no, we just did back and forth between ORD and DFW and didn't have to show proof of vaccination status or any COVID tests (we could have provided both due to the international elements). Totally normal flights except masks and particularly surly flight crews.

no masks at all in my sons’s primary school, on anyone. deputy headteacher shook my hand. no testing. i guess this is the do it and be legends school of thought.

i'm sorry tracer, we are lucky in our district

I'm sorry Tracer, that sounds stressful.

ums is absolutely otm, it's been really hard to adjust to sending our kid back. Some days I just have to distract myself from wallowing in all the things I can't control and just focus on how visibly happy he's been to be back with his friends and getting out of the house.

On a much less intense note, but still frustrating: the various tour postponements and cancellations going around have finally hit my ticket schedule, with Gary Numan saying yesterday his fall tour will be ported over to 2022. Can't help but feel there's much more to come.

I know stats aren't always comforting, but the risk to most kids from COVID is not much different than that of flu, RSV, or any other common virus that was around pre-COVID, probably even less. Everyone has their own risk tolerance, but I lost more sleep over buying a trampoline than I did sending my kids to school in person this year, and the anxiety I have is largely from quarantine potential rather than health risk.

Yeah you know, it's not more feelings than some sort of rational tallying up of factors but I get it

TBF, it also helps that I am in a super-highly-vaccinated area with people who are largely conscientious. I might be a little more worried if I were in Florida.

Kids back in school, feels very normal tbh (but I am in a high-vax district with indoor masking in school and some reassuring HVAC upgrades they did when the buildings were empty)

eh, if you live in the US you're not in a high vaccination district.

I'm not sure how much it's penetrated US news coverage that America is now thoroughly mediocre in its vaccination rate compared to most of Western
Europe and Scandinavia pic.twitter.com/NCXMFBsVzF

— Dylan Scott (@dylanlscott) September 7, 2021

We live somewhere with 'high' vaccine rates and I'm aware of at least three rabid anti-vaxxers living in our building alone.

I don't know what anybody in my building thinks about vaccination, because I never talk to any of them. I do know that I have never seen any of them wear a mask, ever.

I'm not sure how much it's penetrated US news coverage that America is now thoroughly mediocre in its vaccination rate

America is now thoroughly mediocre in everything, so this isn't news.

not to defend the US, but we do have 333 million people living here as well.

Of the other countries in the top ten in world population, the US is only beaten by China in terms of % vaccinated. granted, we SHOULD be doing a lot better, and a lot of the reason for the other countries have to do with supply or infrastructure, but by comparison, Singapore, who is 79% fully vaccinated, has just under 6 million people.

again, we should be doing better as we have the capacity to deliver many more vaccinations per day, and we do seem to have the greatest proportion of COVID denialists, but having a huge-assed population doesn't help. and also explains why we're getting our asses kicked now - regional variability.

sure. my point is that americans saying "i think x will not happen because i live in a high vax area" usually live somewhere that has a significantly lower vaccination rate than somewhere x has already happened.

yeah and I agree with you there. it's sort of why I became disheartened at looking at the vaccination stats for the US - because I look at countries far more vaxxed than us and see that they didn't bat back Delta themselves, so how could we ever hope to.