Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

and the laaaambda
lies doooow
on Brrrooooooadddway

of all people to make a Gabriel-era Genesis joke, you weren't at the top of my list!

Genesis nerd would have made some sort of "Lamia" pun and it would not have been as funny.

of all people to make a Gabriel-era Genesis joke, you weren't at the top of my list!

― Duke Detain (Neanderthal),

Shall I quote from "The Battle of Epping Forest?"

Why you prog rock fop, you and your cape.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/de/ee/0b/deee0b5dd2b7992afb801b940d2764d5.gif

So yesterday was the first day that a wide range of businesses here in SF are required to have patrons show they've been vaccinated, and happily my fave Mexican spot that I get something from every Friday was doing just that. From what I could tell there was only one person who had an issue and that appeared to just be that they were unaware the requirement had kicked in rather than assholery.

My daughter (vaccinated) had a sleepover with two of her best friends (vaccinated) at the home of a third friend (also vaccinated) last night. We got an email around 10pm that the younger brother of the host friend (who is 10, so unvaccinated) was potentially exposed to someone on his (outdoor, masked) soccer team that tested positive (with no symptoms), and in turn must have gotten it from someone else on the team that also tested positive but now has symptoms (though not anything serious iirc). It was too late to get the younger brother tested last night, and they're all there for a (socially distanced, masked) event somewhere else this morning, so hopefully it all works out well. Everyone's in communication and willing to accommodate concerns, whatever they may be. I guess we'll keep an eye on her after she gets home today.

Everyone potentially exposed to the kid with covid tested negative, so that's good. Our poor piano teacher, though, had fully hoped to do in person lessons this year, but she said she's been exposed to two people so far that had breakthrough infections and needed to isolate until she got a negative test, so it looks like Zoom lessons for at least the next few months, until she gets a booster and younger students get their vaccine.

good to hear

“I’m more of a libertarian.” pic.twitter.com/LzMdf0VVOf

— Charles #GetVaxxed! 💉 (@charles_gaba) August 22, 2021

Make A Wish for reactionaries dying of COVID, let them pretend to audit the Fed.

I have a good friend whose father, an elderly, immunocompromised cancer survivor, just learned that his Covid vaccine (Pfizer, iirc) apparently didn't take at all and he has no protection, no antibodies, and the doctor suspects getting vaccinated again won't do it, either. That's terrible and terrifying.

shit like this drives me up the wall:

The data are accurate and refer to both symptomatic (Israel) and any infections as labeled in the table. You can keep up with your happy talk. I’ll stick with the truth to try and help people who are vaccinated stay protected.

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) August 23, 2021

I know not every fuckin' disagreement on Twitter merits a detailed response, but this isn't some internet rando, it's an infectious diseases specialist who is literally treating COVID patients on a daily basis. I'd be interested in Eric defending why his reduced VE estimation is correct (when it's been challenged by many, many peers in previous week), because I'm a layperson and have no fucking idea, but instead he always gets defensive and ad hom-y like this. he blocks scientists he doesn't agree with (and I'm not talking about the Marty Makarys of the world).

still read all of his stuff but man.

(the infectious disease specialist is the person Topol is replying to)

Oh I sort of indirectly know that guy (the guy he is replying to) and he is great on COVID, one of the best sources imo.

BTW, quarantined now. There's a certain irony to it - in spite of my stubbornness I was convinced to be extra careful for the last several weeks by the fact that, at a minimum, we didn't want our kids to have to quarantine when school started. So we avoided indoor dining/spaces, saw only close family, did nothing on our vacation except hang out in a rental house, eat outside and hike in uncrowded places. Then a relative of my wife's came to visit from abroad, and I had no idea that (1) they had only just gotten their second shot and (2) they weren't exactly being careful in the days before they came to our place. And now they've tested positive, so we're stuck inside, and given the amount of contact we and especially my wife and kids had, I'd say there's a pretty good chance one or more of us gets it (although no one has symptoms as yet). Mentally preparing myself for a really sucky experience, whichever of us gets sick. Glad we are vaxxed and my kids probably have some immunity at least.

Good luck man alive. The chances of having a sucky covid experience if you’re vaxxed (and if you’re a kid!) are extremely low afaict but once it’s happening to you it’s hard to be blasé about it.

good luck to you man, keep an eye out and stay safe.

oh wow, man alive, keep safe.

I'm on campus now, our first regular fall semester since 2019. Happily, 8 or 9 out of 10 students walk around campus masked -- even outdoors. I have a 50-student face-to-face class at 2 p.m. We can pretty-please beg them to mask and get vaccinated (we have several vaccination sites on campus that the administration has been incessantly promoting), but c'est tout. Luckily we're at 75.2% fully vaccinated for those 12 and up. I will be masked while I introduce Un Chien Andalou.

Good luck man alive, hope you all stay safe.

It's been really fun having my allergies kick back in over the last week or so.

Iirc masks potentially make allergies *worse*, because all the (much bigger than covid cooties) allergens get stuck all up in your grill and smooshed against your face.

there is an epidemiologist in FL claiming FL will be 'near herd immunity' soon and I refuse to link it here as I refuse to boost that article. so fucking irresponsible - we have no idea what the threshold for "herd immunity" is, and using phrases like that causes people to change their behaviors.

It is true that a large portion of FL will probably have antibodies after Delta is said and done, and that might mute future waves (Michigan, in fact, is having that happen now, facing less cases/hospitalizations than other states with similar vaccination rates, due to its case explosion during Alpha wave). but that doesn't mean "herd immunity".

news media should know better than sharing that shit, too.

I wish we had *nerd* immunity from all these dorks overconfidently spreading bad science, am I right?

I had to submit my vaccination status (dates, which brand, lot numbers) to my university prior to the semester starting, and every person on any university property is required to be masked at all times. Exemptions must go through the disability resource center and people cannot enter any buildings maskless without proper documentation.

Lots of language about disciplinary actions including termination/expulsion for non-compliance but I'm curious to see how enforcement goes.

Good luck, man alive!

Thanks all.

Indeed, hope all goes better than feared.

i have a co-worker who put off getting vaxxed and he is downright miserable. he's had it two weeks now and says he feels worse now than he did a week ago :(.

(yes, to echo the chorus, best wishes man alive and fam, and i'm glad you're vaxxed!)

there is an epidemiologist in FL claiming FL will be 'near herd immunity' soon and I refuse to link it here as I refuse to boost that article. so fucking irresponsible - we have no idea what the threshold for "herd immunity" is, and using phrases like that causes people to change their behaviors.

Agreed. Reckless messaging like this might jeopardize the heretofore excellent decisionmaking capacities of the people of (checks notes) Florida.

fwiw it looks like cases in this wave in florida look like they may have peaked

have you a link?

Alfred, I begged off in-person teaching this semester, even tho we have an indoor mask mandate with no exemptions and a vaccine mandated by October 15 for all students and staff at the institution where I'd been working. My partner told me about the number of beds in the ICU taken up by Covid patients, and I looked at the rates of positive cases at the institution, and I said "no way." They won't let professors decide whether to teach in person or not, even if there's a positive case in one of their classes. It's completely irresponsible afaic.

Never mind. From the Orlando Sentinel:

One model created by University of South Florida researchers predicts the state will hit the most daily infections by Aug. 24, bringing about 23,000 that day, said Dr. Edwin Michael. Because the delta variant has infected so many unvaccinated people, and more than 66% of Floridians have been immunized, he said the state will likely hit herd immunity in early September.

If immunity gained from infection proves to be long-lasting — though research has indicated it offers shorter protection than that of the vaccine — and if vaccines hold, Michael said the pandemic could end by early next year.

“If immunity is long term, this will be the last significant wave,” he said, noting “flare-ups” could still occur. “There’s a lot of caveats to this.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says people who have been infected and recovered from COVID-19 should still get vaccinated.

“If you have had COVID-19 before, please still get vaccinated,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the CDC Director this month, following the findings of a study showing unvaccinated people are two times more likely to be reinfected.

A University of Florida model predicts a similar timeline, projecting a peak to come at the end of last week or sometime next week, said Dr. Ira Longini, a biostatistician who helped develop it. The model, updated Aug. 14, predicts a more severe summit at about 33,000 cases in a single day, or 150 cases per 100,000 residents, according to a report published by the school.

i finally read https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has-changed-pandemic-endgame/619726/ btw. it's excellent of course.

couple of things jumped out

If no other precautions are taken, Delta can spread through a half-vaccinated country more quickly than the original virus could in a completely unvaccinated country.

and

But herd immunity—the point where enough people are immune that outbreaks automatically fizzle out—likely cannot be reached through vaccination alone. Even at the low end of the CDC’s estimated range for Delta’s R0, achieving herd immunity would require vaccinating more than 90 percent of people, which is highly implausible. At the high end, herd immunity is mathematically impossible with the vaccines we have now.

also i didn't realize things were this bad

USA is now just 48th on the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker list of 1st vaccine shots per capita and 51st in % fully vaxxed. https://t.co/NmrDyP1oHe

— Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) August 23, 2021

xpost the latter part is a reality i don't think most have realized yet.

fwiw it looks like cases in this wave in florida look like they may have peaked

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, August 23, 2021 12:15 PM bookmarkflaglink

I sure as fuck hope so. the hospitals are at breaking point, but i know those aren't going to decline until much later than cases.

is tehre a name for a logical fallacy where we assume the most negative takes/news are correct simply because they're negative? I see a lot of that going around. which doesn't mean we shouldn't admit negative news is negative but I know a lot of people that will hear two reports about the same thing and inherently believe the most negative of the two.

If no other precautions are taken, Delta can spread through a half-vaccinated country more quickly than the original virus could in a completely unvaccinated country.

This is just restating the R(0) of each variant, but in layman's terms which, ofc, makes it a much better way to deliver the message to the vast majority of the population who have no medical expertise.

At the high end, herd immunity is mathematically impossible with the vaccines we have now.

Which is why it cannot be overstressed that the benefit of the vaccines is quite simply they will save your life 99.7% of the time. Herd immunity was always a highly theoretical outcome about which few people had an accurate understanding. Not dying is much easier to understand.

is tehre a name for a logical fallacy where we assume the most negative takes/news are correct simply because they're negative? I see a lot of that going around. which doesn't mean we shouldn't admit negative news is negative but I know a lot of people that will hear two reports about the same thing and inherently believe the most negative of the two.

― Duke Detain (Neanderthal), Monday, August 23, 2021 12:29 PM (twenty-six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

my dad does this about football and his view is you're either right or pleasantly surprised, so it's a good way to go through life.

sort of a dirty pascal's wager there

heh, Neanderthal, check this out:

https://www.wpbf.com/article/usf-researchers-florida-will-reach-peak-of-covid-surge-next-week-herd-immunity-sept-11/37342961

my dad does this about football and his view is you're either right or pleasantly surprised, so it's a good way to go through life.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, August 23, 2021 11:56 AM (twenty minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

It's a problem with something like COVID where simply always taking the most cautious approach can have its own harms. But it's never an easy call to make.

Yes I don’t agree with my dad and the prevalence of that attitude is part of the reason I left the UK tbqfh

that is kind of what bugged me about Topol's 'sick burn' against the infectious disease doctor last night, like he was actually chastising him because he was "being too positive", as if Topol's grimmer outlook was inherently superior because it was grim.

I mean, sometimes grim IS correct. I don't believe in putting perfume on a pig. but when I told a fellow Floridian cases appeared to be peaking as an attempt to be reassuring, I got "OH MY GOD THAT'S BULLSHIT, NEANDERTHAL, we aren't fucking PEAKING, and it's irresponsible to say that, we can't be complacent", like....i fucking...know? do we gots to caveat every statement now?

It's been really fun having my allergies kick back in over the last week or so.

― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, August 23, 2021 8:43 AM (three hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Glad to know it's not just me.

For me it's not allergies but mosquitos as of late. I feel my odds of catching West Nile are much higher than Covid.

What's the case for thinking Florida's cases aren't peaking? The week-on-week percentage increase has been going down for several weeks in a row now. Missouri, which was hit by this wave first, a few weeks before Florida, already has cases going down. I mean it sucks that we been through enough of this now to say "this is how it works" but -- this is how it works. The question of whether we're at "this is it, enough people have acquired immunity either the hard way or the easy way that it's just local flare-ups from here on out" or "brace yourself for the winter wave" is of course another question entirely.

Another piece of good news is that the Delta waves in the upper Midwest and northeast grew just as rapidly as in the South (Delta being Delta) but seem to be, at least for now, topping out at a much lower level, at least in part because vaccines work and are good. And the number of shots we're giving per day keeps going up and up and it is not at all unreasonable we can get to the place where what happened in Florida and Louisiana and Mississippi this summer doesn't happen anymore.

I think that's the situation. After a while, the virus has nowhere else to go after running out of infected people except to vaccinated ones, in which case the infections are overwhelmingly asymptomatic to mild.

Denmark has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world. At current pace the US will get to that point in about three months, which would mean about 60 COVID deaths per day. Compared to about 800 per day now.