Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

FWIW my source for masks in general has been this bunch, linking to their about page:

https://shop.projectn95.org/about

You can shop around a bit as needed for what might be best for you, depending:

https://shop.projectn95.org/all

I’d feel so much better if only my daughter’s school had a mask mandate, at least until the kids are able to get vaccinated. Talk about parental choice! We don’t have a choice yet to get them vaccinated, why should other parents’ choice to put them more at risk take precedence over that? Anyhow, on a totally and completely unrelated note, I’d also feel better if I could stuff DeSantis into a drain pipe.

i don't think i could pull off one of these, but they look comfy! https://shop.projectn95.org/gerson-n95-respirators-3230plus-box-of-50/p

i gave up on 'back to normal' a while ago. i'd like 'back to acceptable'.

A little scoop in AgencyIQ today: The FDA is calling in some help to conduct the complex reviews for Pfizer, Moderna and J&J's vaccines. https://t.co/LOn6YOCZTZ (paywalled) pic.twitter.com/NMOT2J2MzO

— Alexander Gaffney (@AlecGaffney) August 20, 2021

It's as if they just realized, huh, maybe people want them to get this approval thing going a little faster.

My employers have adjusted the planned return from remote work date to March 1st. Assuming that holds (in my specific case there are other further factors) then I will have spent almost exactly two years not working onsite.

The city of Orlando is asking residents to reduce water consumption IMMEDIATELY. Liquid oxygen used to treat water is being diverted to the hospitals to treat COVID patients. They believe if water consumption doesn’t change, water treatment could hit a critical point in a week.

knowing how my fellow Orlandolts are, there is approximately a 0.01% chance of water consumption decreasing.

I'm in a neighboring county/city but that update turned my stomach.

slightly better news, apparently Lambda is getting crowded the fuck out:

The Lambda variant is going out like a lamb.
(from the hard to find pandemic good news list)https://t.co/LTDmeuKztt
It can't compete with Delta. pic.twitter.com/dpHuHqPNwx

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) August 14, 2021

Was there anything especially pernicious about lambda that we ought to be happy to have delta raging through the world instead? Offhand I don't recall any particularly bad news about lambda's capabilities.

lambda was causing significant breakthrough infections iirc

the number of people doing COVID doomposting fan fiction isn't helping either (I'm not even talking Twitter, which is full of nutbars, I'm talking about people I know). I mean the news is bad enough as it is, no need to make it worse by speculating far-fetched theories that nobody other than Eric Feigl-Ding would give credence to.

I've actually become very reclusive and stopped talking to anybody outside of a network of about five friends and family because I'm wrecked to the point of not functioning. work is actually a welcome distraction.

and the laaaambda
lies doooow
on Brrrooooooadddway

of all people to make a Gabriel-era Genesis joke, you weren't at the top of my list!

Genesis nerd would have made some sort of "Lamia" pun and it would not have been as funny.

of all people to make a Gabriel-era Genesis joke, you weren't at the top of my list!

― Duke Detain (Neanderthal),

Shall I quote from "The Battle of Epping Forest?"

Why you prog rock fop, you and your cape.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/de/ee/0b/deee0b5dd2b7992afb801b940d2764d5.gif

So yesterday was the first day that a wide range of businesses here in SF are required to have patrons show they've been vaccinated, and happily my fave Mexican spot that I get something from every Friday was doing just that. From what I could tell there was only one person who had an issue and that appeared to just be that they were unaware the requirement had kicked in rather than assholery.

My daughter (vaccinated) had a sleepover with two of her best friends (vaccinated) at the home of a third friend (also vaccinated) last night. We got an email around 10pm that the younger brother of the host friend (who is 10, so unvaccinated) was potentially exposed to someone on his (outdoor, masked) soccer team that tested positive (with no symptoms), and in turn must have gotten it from someone else on the team that also tested positive but now has symptoms (though not anything serious iirc). It was too late to get the younger brother tested last night, and they're all there for a (socially distanced, masked) event somewhere else this morning, so hopefully it all works out well. Everyone's in communication and willing to accommodate concerns, whatever they may be. I guess we'll keep an eye on her after she gets home today.

Everyone potentially exposed to the kid with covid tested negative, so that's good. Our poor piano teacher, though, had fully hoped to do in person lessons this year, but she said she's been exposed to two people so far that had breakthrough infections and needed to isolate until she got a negative test, so it looks like Zoom lessons for at least the next few months, until she gets a booster and younger students get their vaccine.

good to hear

“I’m more of a libertarian.” pic.twitter.com/LzMdf0VVOf

— Charles #GetVaxxed! 💉 (@charles_gaba) August 22, 2021

Make A Wish for reactionaries dying of COVID, let them pretend to audit the Fed.

I have a good friend whose father, an elderly, immunocompromised cancer survivor, just learned that his Covid vaccine (Pfizer, iirc) apparently didn't take at all and he has no protection, no antibodies, and the doctor suspects getting vaccinated again won't do it, either. That's terrible and terrifying.

shit like this drives me up the wall:

The data are accurate and refer to both symptomatic (Israel) and any infections as labeled in the table. You can keep up with your happy talk. I’ll stick with the truth to try and help people who are vaccinated stay protected.

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) August 23, 2021

I know not every fuckin' disagreement on Twitter merits a detailed response, but this isn't some internet rando, it's an infectious diseases specialist who is literally treating COVID patients on a daily basis. I'd be interested in Eric defending why his reduced VE estimation is correct (when it's been challenged by many, many peers in previous week), because I'm a layperson and have no fucking idea, but instead he always gets defensive and ad hom-y like this. he blocks scientists he doesn't agree with (and I'm not talking about the Marty Makarys of the world).

still read all of his stuff but man.

(the infectious disease specialist is the person Topol is replying to)

Oh I sort of indirectly know that guy (the guy he is replying to) and he is great on COVID, one of the best sources imo.

BTW, quarantined now. There's a certain irony to it - in spite of my stubbornness I was convinced to be extra careful for the last several weeks by the fact that, at a minimum, we didn't want our kids to have to quarantine when school started. So we avoided indoor dining/spaces, saw only close family, did nothing on our vacation except hang out in a rental house, eat outside and hike in uncrowded places. Then a relative of my wife's came to visit from abroad, and I had no idea that (1) they had only just gotten their second shot and (2) they weren't exactly being careful in the days before they came to our place. And now they've tested positive, so we're stuck inside, and given the amount of contact we and especially my wife and kids had, I'd say there's a pretty good chance one or more of us gets it (although no one has symptoms as yet). Mentally preparing myself for a really sucky experience, whichever of us gets sick. Glad we are vaxxed and my kids probably have some immunity at least.

Good luck man alive. The chances of having a sucky covid experience if you’re vaxxed (and if you’re a kid!) are extremely low afaict but once it’s happening to you it’s hard to be blasé about it.

good luck to you man, keep an eye out and stay safe.

oh wow, man alive, keep safe.

I'm on campus now, our first regular fall semester since 2019. Happily, 8 or 9 out of 10 students walk around campus masked -- even outdoors. I have a 50-student face-to-face class at 2 p.m. We can pretty-please beg them to mask and get vaccinated (we have several vaccination sites on campus that the administration has been incessantly promoting), but c'est tout. Luckily we're at 75.2% fully vaccinated for those 12 and up. I will be masked while I introduce Un Chien Andalou.

Good luck man alive, hope you all stay safe.

It's been really fun having my allergies kick back in over the last week or so.

Iirc masks potentially make allergies *worse*, because all the (much bigger than covid cooties) allergens get stuck all up in your grill and smooshed against your face.

there is an epidemiologist in FL claiming FL will be 'near herd immunity' soon and I refuse to link it here as I refuse to boost that article. so fucking irresponsible - we have no idea what the threshold for "herd immunity" is, and using phrases like that causes people to change their behaviors.

It is true that a large portion of FL will probably have antibodies after Delta is said and done, and that might mute future waves (Michigan, in fact, is having that happen now, facing less cases/hospitalizations than other states with similar vaccination rates, due to its case explosion during Alpha wave). but that doesn't mean "herd immunity".

news media should know better than sharing that shit, too.

I wish we had *nerd* immunity from all these dorks overconfidently spreading bad science, am I right?

I had to submit my vaccination status (dates, which brand, lot numbers) to my university prior to the semester starting, and every person on any university property is required to be masked at all times. Exemptions must go through the disability resource center and people cannot enter any buildings maskless without proper documentation.

Lots of language about disciplinary actions including termination/expulsion for non-compliance but I'm curious to see how enforcement goes.

Good luck, man alive!

Thanks all.

Indeed, hope all goes better than feared.

i have a co-worker who put off getting vaxxed and he is downright miserable. he's had it two weeks now and says he feels worse now than he did a week ago :(.

(yes, to echo the chorus, best wishes man alive and fam, and i'm glad you're vaxxed!)

there is an epidemiologist in FL claiming FL will be 'near herd immunity' soon and I refuse to link it here as I refuse to boost that article. so fucking irresponsible - we have no idea what the threshold for "herd immunity" is, and using phrases like that causes people to change their behaviors.

Agreed. Reckless messaging like this might jeopardize the heretofore excellent decisionmaking capacities of the people of (checks notes) Florida.

fwiw it looks like cases in this wave in florida look like they may have peaked

have you a link?

Alfred, I begged off in-person teaching this semester, even tho we have an indoor mask mandate with no exemptions and a vaccine mandated by October 15 for all students and staff at the institution where I'd been working. My partner told me about the number of beds in the ICU taken up by Covid patients, and I looked at the rates of positive cases at the institution, and I said "no way." They won't let professors decide whether to teach in person or not, even if there's a positive case in one of their classes. It's completely irresponsible afaic.

Never mind. From the Orlando Sentinel:

One model created by University of South Florida researchers predicts the state will hit the most daily infections by Aug. 24, bringing about 23,000 that day, said Dr. Edwin Michael. Because the delta variant has infected so many unvaccinated people, and more than 66% of Floridians have been immunized, he said the state will likely hit herd immunity in early September.

If immunity gained from infection proves to be long-lasting — though research has indicated it offers shorter protection than that of the vaccine — and if vaccines hold, Michael said the pandemic could end by early next year.

“If immunity is long term, this will be the last significant wave,” he said, noting “flare-ups” could still occur. “There’s a lot of caveats to this.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says people who have been infected and recovered from COVID-19 should still get vaccinated.

“If you have had COVID-19 before, please still get vaccinated,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the CDC Director this month, following the findings of a study showing unvaccinated people are two times more likely to be reinfected.

A University of Florida model predicts a similar timeline, projecting a peak to come at the end of last week or sometime next week, said Dr. Ira Longini, a biostatistician who helped develop it. The model, updated Aug. 14, predicts a more severe summit at about 33,000 cases in a single day, or 150 cases per 100,000 residents, according to a report published by the school.

i finally read https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has-changed-pandemic-endgame/619726/ btw. it's excellent of course.

couple of things jumped out

If no other precautions are taken, Delta can spread through a half-vaccinated country more quickly than the original virus could in a completely unvaccinated country.

and

But herd immunity—the point where enough people are immune that outbreaks automatically fizzle out—likely cannot be reached through vaccination alone. Even at the low end of the CDC’s estimated range for Delta’s R0, achieving herd immunity would require vaccinating more than 90 percent of people, which is highly implausible. At the high end, herd immunity is mathematically impossible with the vaccines we have now.

also i didn't realize things were this bad

USA is now just 48th on the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker list of 1st vaccine shots per capita and 51st in % fully vaxxed. https://t.co/NmrDyP1oHe

— Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) August 23, 2021

xpost the latter part is a reality i don't think most have realized yet.

fwiw it looks like cases in this wave in florida look like they may have peaked

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, August 23, 2021 12:15 PM bookmarkflaglink

I sure as fuck hope so. the hospitals are at breaking point, but i know those aren't going to decline until much later than cases.

is tehre a name for a logical fallacy where we assume the most negative takes/news are correct simply because they're negative? I see a lot of that going around. which doesn't mean we shouldn't admit negative news is negative but I know a lot of people that will hear two reports about the same thing and inherently believe the most negative of the two.