That's also what Angela Rasmussen has been screaming
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Saturday, 7 August 2021 18:23 (two years ago) link
the market for doom and gloom has been red hot since at least 1994, tracking right along with the rise of the internet rather closely
― it is to laugh, like so, ha! (Aimless), Saturday, 7 August 2021 18:55 (two years ago) link
New Orleans JazzFest postponed to April 2022.
― ... (Eazy), Monday, 9 August 2021 00:25 (two years ago) link
The vaccines not being tested for transmissibility seems like one of those inevitable outcomes of the urgency to get this done. Presumably some massively-funded rounds of research are gearing up right now to try to address that. If the vaccines reduce severity and infection rates, then they're still important until better ones get here.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Monday, 9 August 2021 00:29 (two years ago) link
Meanwhile, I found this pretty sobering:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/too-many-people-are-dying-of-covid-19-right-now.html
Partly because I remembered the previous much rosier (in retrospect) article just a few weeks ago:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/07/how-bad-could-the-delta-variant-get.html
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Monday, 9 August 2021 00:32 (two years ago) link
i think the thing we've learned is forecasting this pandemic is next to impossible. pessimistic predictions at least have the benefit of leading to action to mitigate the spread and letting people know what could happen.
but far too often we've underestimated this thing (myself included)
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 00:48 (two years ago) link
yup
― No Particular Place to POLL (James Redd and the Blecchs), Monday, 9 August 2021 01:06 (two years ago) link
it's just like hurricane forecasting.
hurricane forecasts tell a vast expanse of civilians they might get a dangerous storm and it might hit in the next 5 days, and what they could expect. that allows these civilians to evacuate if they're in a location that might be a severe risk.
except instead of thanking the forecasters, if the storm misses the civilians after all, said civilians scream and yell and talk about how nobody knows what they're talking about, whereas had they taken a direct hit they'd be thankful af.
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 01:19 (two years ago) link
it's the advantage/disadvantage of empathy. the advantage is in understanding what's really happening and what could happen. the disadvantage is having to feel the emotions associated with it
― Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Monday, 9 August 2021 01:41 (two years ago) link
god, that gloomy article was written by Eric Topol, one of my favorite scientists to follow. not exactly a 'doomposter' - he had been a lot more optimistic a while back. it matches the tone of his Tweets - he's scared.
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 01:58 (two years ago) link
Yeah that was one of the most dispiriting things I’ve read
― covidsbundlertanze op. 6 (Jon not Jon), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:01 (two years ago) link
Okay, fair enough, but look at Topol's latest tweet.
― No Particular Place to POLL (James Redd and the Blecchs), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:05 (two years ago) link
Reassuring. Current data from San Diego County, California's 2nd largest, which tracks vaccinated status and vaccine for new cases, ~58% total population vaccinated (national 50%).https://t.co/xDxRRMJL5pBut March -> June are before Delta pic.twitter.com/yityL7Vp3R— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) August 8, 2021
I guess he says "reassuring," but then says "but."
― No Particular Place to POLL (James Redd and the Blecchs), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:06 (two years ago) link
good night!
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:07 (two years ago) link
It seems that, even from the more temperate voices, we get bad news just as often as reassuring news at this point. For me and most people in my orbit, it feels bleak as fuck. We canceled our trip to see family in Michigan, my sister canceled my nephew’s outdoor birthday party, people are pulling back and (essentially) locking in again for a long fall and winter. It’s hard to feel hopeful, that’s for sure.
― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:21 (two years ago) link
Don't know if I'd go so far as locking down and not seeing people outside, if only because we vaccinated are not where we were a year ago or even January.
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:27 (two years ago) link
There are so many factors not traceable in the data to figure out why delta is acting as it is. We can trace things like vaccination rates county-by-county, but not elective population behaviors, like masking or exposing oneself in crowds & indoor settings. We can probably overlay some of the co-morbities in a various regional populations, but not with much granularity. It's the sort of statistical sloshing that makes things very hard to model.
― it is to laugh, like so, ha! (Aimless), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:27 (two years ago) link
like, if you have an outdoor vacation with jabbed folks I see no reason to cancel it if you're careful
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:28 (two years ago) link
It’s less about the jabbed folks, it’s that we were all going to meet up in the UP for a long weekend. My father in law is fully vaxxed, but he (fairly!) got spooked and bailed, which just sort of became the first domino to fall and everything basically fell apart from there. We may end up driving up to spend a quiet day with him, but that’s about it.
― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:31 (two years ago) link
With him, at his house instead of the UP, that is.
― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:32 (two years ago) link
I feel lucky we managed to have our planned fully-vaxxed family get together the 2nd week of July. Anything later I'm sure some people wouldn't have wanted to do it.
We had dinner indoors at a restaurant tonight, because we had made the reservation weeks ago and had been looking forward to it. But we agreed that's it for us indoors until further notice. Sad.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Monday, 9 August 2021 03:16 (two years ago) link
Yeah, last week we went to the beach with my wife's family in two rented houses, 20+ of us, all vaccinated bar two children under the age of 5. We enjoyed it, it was great to see everyone in person again, in some cases, for the first time since Thanksgiving 2019, but definitely had very low levels of background anxiety the entire time. My wife and I have agreed that was the last indoor activity with people in a while, bar a trip to the Berkshire's with another couple that have been even more quarantined than us.
I have zero concern about being unmasked at normal distanced outdoor activity such as a backyard party.
― Carlos Santana & Mahavishnu Rob Thomas (PBKR), Monday, 9 August 2021 12:17 (two years ago) link
tweet that beautifully sums up the state of COVID-19 on Twitter:
How it started. How it’s going.#WearAMask #StopMansplaining pic.twitter.com/Z1opBhoztj— Qasim Rashid, Esq. (@QasimRashid) August 9, 2021
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 13:42 (two years ago) link
also!
A small but very interesting study on breakthrough infections (post 1 or 2 mRNA vaccine doses). Breakthrough infections became PCR negative quickly and in asymptomatic cases, no culturable virus could be recovered (all alpha variant). https://t.co/I5Nokmnya4— Dr CJ Houldcroft 🕷️ (@DrCJ_Houldcroft) August 9, 2021
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 13:45 (two years ago) link
(sadly, all alpha variant)
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 13:46 (two years ago) link
also ERic Topol after that article was published - thinks he knows why the ratio is fucked up in the US
Agree. This became clear to me in subsequently reviewing the marked reduction in US testing and how poor it is (<1/5) compared to the reference countries UK and Israel that I discussed w/ Davidhttps://t.co/v7NEHWrvTy— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) August 8, 2021
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 13:48 (two years ago) link
That does make sense. Does not reduce our actual hospitalization numbers though.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:02 (two years ago) link
I know this isn't the apolitical thread, but I'm a little aghast that people are cancelling small indoor get-togethers with family and friends who are also vaxxed. Everyone has their own ideas and thresholds for safety, and I respect that— for example, I met with some friends and their toddler the other afternoon on their back porch, which was lovely despite the heat.
But I'm not spending another 6+ months not seeing my parents or friends for dinner at our places of residence— it's simply not happening.
― heyy nineteen, that's john belushi (the table is the table), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:04 (two years ago) link
xpost - nope. they're still way higher than in the UK, presumably due to how less vaxxed we are.
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:07 (two years ago) link
I'm in a similar position, which I suppose readers were able to figure out from my comments last night. Unless a lockdown were to happen again -- not bloody happening -- I'm not shutting in again. I'm single and have no children, though.
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:09 (two years ago) link
xpost - Well, sure, but there's a difference between going to visit family in their houses, in small groups, than all of us getting together somewhere that requires travel for all of us and unavoidably mixing in with a lot of other people in an area less heavily vaxxed (it's the latter that essentially undid our planned family gathering).
― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:09 (two years ago) link
This may depend on your local climate, but we have another 3 months at least where outdoor socializing will be easy, so I don't think we'll have to give up too much social life in the near term. I certainly would still have dinner at a friend's house. I don't know if I'd go to a hundred-person basement kegger, but it's been a few decades since I was invited to such a thing. And I just told my poker circle I'm out of in-person games for now — we have up to 10 people crammed into a tiny room with limited ventilation, and the host of the game is in a demographic risk group, so I don't feel totally comfortable there (much as I enjoyed the game's in-person return).
But yeah, there's going to a lot of guesswork for all of us, I don't think anyone vaxxed who's being reasonable about it should be guilted for their choices, there are so many factors.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:11 (two years ago) link
I have four plane round trips planned for the next few months, two of which are essential for family reasons, wish me luck
― Legalize Suburban Benches (Raymond Cummings), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:15 (two years ago) link
Topol's own new piece is not sanguine.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/09/america-is-flying-blind-when-it-comes-to-the-delta-variant
― Ned Raggett, Monday, 9 August 2021 18:00 (two years ago) link
I really never understood the CDC's rationale to stop collecting breakthrough data except for severe cases. unless they truly thought the pandemic was pretty much over.
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 18:04 (two years ago) link
Topol's frustration is apparent in his tweets. he outright murdered one rando on twitter the other day and asked him to stop posting "bullshit".
nobody's been listening to him, maybe the more of these articles he writes that shit on the CDC (along with Gottlieb's own) will make them defensive enough to inadvertently do something right for once.
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 18:09 (two years ago) link
There are 2 levels to flying blind in the Delta wave.One is the CDC's void of data 👇The other is our testing, << 1/2 of 3rd wave, w/very poor availability A no show: home rapid antigen tests, which should be freely provided to every household to help safely open schools https://t.co/h9CvtLIsdH— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) August 8, 2021
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 18:10 (two years ago) link
somewhat more reassuring
The latest Israeli data that shows sustained high effectiveness of mRNA vaccines vs severe illness in people age > 60, during the Delta wave, but amidst increasing breakthrough cases. Via @AArgoetti and @LittleMoiz pic.twitter.com/1J2uTWkC2Z— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) August 9, 2021
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 18:12 (two years ago) link
Ironically, on 1 May, the CDC announced it would stop monitoring post-vaccination breakthrough infections unless they led to hospitalizations or deaths. This decision can be seen as exceptionally ill-advised
― Marty J. Bilge (Old Lunch), Monday, 9 August 2021 18:36 (two years ago) link
Everyone wants the pandemic to be over and so it is.
― Carlos Santana & Mahavishnu Rob Thomas (PBKR), Monday, 9 August 2021 18:44 (two years ago) link
I think the new administration may also want to bury any bad news. It's not just Trump.
― DJI, Monday, 9 August 2021 18:49 (two years ago) link
The American Academy of Pediatrics Tells the FDA to Speed Up and Stop Endangering Patients
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/08/81683.html
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 9 August 2021 18:51 (two years ago) link
Meantime, a few days old but more on how/why we're holding up in SF (the key reason is the obvious one)
https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/The-vaccination-advantage-How-San-Francisco-s-16370752.php
― Ned Raggett, Monday, 9 August 2021 20:22 (two years ago) link
weed?
― kinder, Monday, 9 August 2021 20:23 (two years ago) link
Amazing
― Ned Raggett, Monday, 9 August 2021 20:28 (two years ago) link
But of course what this SF data suggests is the possibility that even with very high vaccination rates and high compliance with mitigation measures, cases are going to grow exponentially and eventually affect most of the population, vaxxed and not, and that people who are either vaxxed or young will very likely escape serious harm but the old/unvaxxed will not. And if that's the case, it makes you wonder how useful the mitigation measures are, esp. once we can vaccinate everybody 5 and up.
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 9 August 2021 20:32 (two years ago) link
A buddy and myself got the J&J vaccine on the same day in April... he's now decided that wasn't good enough, so he went in and got dose #1 of the Pfizer.
Apparently that's becoming a thing for Bay Area folks who got the J&J, heard so on the radio.
― Andy the Grasshopper, Monday, 9 August 2021 20:42 (two years ago) link
gonna keep happening until we find some data on boosters that people can agree on.
like I don't even know if my 'boost' was worth it or not but....since my trial didn't give me the option to be part of the booster trial, and I live with elder parents, I was kind of forced into a corner there.
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 21:02 (two years ago) link
so i was reading the news here in canada and bell's palsy is now a side effect, albeit rare, of the pfizer vaccine (https://nationalpost.com/health/pfizer-vaccine-label-amended-in-canada-to-list-bells-palsy-as-possible-side-effect).
work forces us to take time off in the summer, so that piece of news coupled with my discovery of alex berenson today led me down a rabbit hole of reported adverse effects.
i couldn't find any tracking system for canada, but i found one for the US -- VAERS. this isn't meant as fear-mongering, because the weird ones are all super rare, but it was kind of interesting to see all the anomalies. i sorted it by pfizer and the most "common ones" (all below 19%) but you can reverse the sorting by percent of 203,069:
https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D8;jsessionid=3A8E8483E7316E74ED74AE36F98D?stage=results&action=sort&direction=MEASURE_DESCEND&measure=D8.M2
i wonder how easy it is to report adverse effects in the US? i did a bit of reading and apparently it's a glitchy system, but it's still pretty cool that you're able to submit adverse effects through your phone
― Punster McPunisher, Tuesday, 10 August 2021 00:42 (two years ago) link