Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

Just saw my cousin and his family on Instagram on vacation in....

Lake of the Fucking Ozarks!

Unmasked of course

badg, take anything what I say with a grain of salt as I'm no expert, I'm just an aggregator of what I read (and a dismisser of fringe theories). but my basis for saying that was that there did seem to be a modest efficiency study drop in the studies that came out.

it IS hard to truly say if it's a volume thing predominantly or if it is the mutation's ability to evade immunity more easily.

I feel like places that are hot spots are more concern than areas where it's leveled off per caek

xxxxxxxpost

lot of despairing healthcare workers out there on twitter today. people really unhappy with how this news rolled out and I don't blame them. the messaging got butchered by the media, mostly because the CDC fucked it up in the first place.

now, even though the message isn't "whether you're vaccinated or not, you have the same likelihood of spreading the disease", that's what people are hearing, saying "why should I get vaxxed"?

so these incentives are just going to have to be the tip of the iceberg to get people to get shots. hopefully it'll have the opposite effect, that people will get so beleaguered with this virus that they just finally do it.

About fucking time

BREAKING: FDA, under pressure, plans ‘sprint’ to accelerate review of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine for full approval https://t.co/voqfXKphj3

— STAT (@statnews) July 30, 2021

I really wonder if the word "rare" is causing skepticism re: breakthroughs. Seems "far less likely" might be easier to parse.

When people hear five vaxxed friends got it....rare seems farcical

Another thing people are arguing over

The much anticipated latest ONS infection data is out.

E🔼from 1.36% to 1.57% (+15%)
W🔼from 0.47% to 0.62% (+32%)
NI🔼from 0.59% to 1.48% (+151%)
S🔽from 1.24% to 0.94% (-24%)

A short thread follows:

1/ pic.twitter.com/lCwCa6437P

— John Roberts (@john_actuary) July 30, 2021

NEW: lots of attention on ONS Infection Survey today, but some confusion over how it should (and should not) be used to asses whether England’s fall in cases is "real"

Quick thread:

Most attention has gone on ONS “% of people testing positive” metric showing a continued rise pic.twitter.com/4qljnrDeat

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) July 30, 2021

So.... did I catch the end of that story correctly? I heard a bit of it, but following on Twitter is only leading to questionable sources and inconsistent reporting. The gist of the radio report I heard is that Abbott issued an executive order banning cities from requiring masks and vaccines. Just... when do these assholes become accountable for the dead bodies?

What if my mask had a gun on it and could shoot someone?

first, we need to start taking back state legislature majorities from the Republicans, which is growing more difficult due to gerrymandering, but.....also part of the issue is we don't highlight it as a goal or a platform enough. like we think state legislatures don't matter but as we saw in the last election or during COVID YES THEY FUCKING DO.

I wonder how many people who vote for President actually don't bother to pick people that far downballot. fuckery doesn't just happen at the National level, but at the state level, the Federal government can't actually fix a lot of it unless the states are outright passing unconstitutional legislation. and there's a lot of wiggle room to fuck people over without being unconstitutional.

I downplayed the worries of DeSantis being elected Governor in 2018 due to my relief at the Dems getting back the House, but knowing what I know now, I might have wept more.

rapid COVID test is back. negative.

By the way, if this is at all representative of the minds of the great unvaxxed ...

The Chris Cuomo interview with Huntington Beach, CA restaurant owner Tony Roman was next level WTF.

It was almost comical. #CuomoPrimeTime #chriscuomo #cnn #tonyroman #California #COVIDIOTS pic.twitter.com/jybiIDamSk

— AC Junior 😷 (@CamJunior1972) July 29, 2021

proof of being unvaccinated.

i'd just whip out my dick at the owner and piss on him and tell him to get the piss tested

Your proof of eating there will be diarrhea.

total vaccinations in the US today exceeded 800,000. cannot even remember the last time we hurdled that, I think we had a random day over 1 million a month or two ago but that to me seemed like spillover from one day to the next.

let's hope it keeps moving up.

One thing Delta and the hullabaloo has brought us: more US vaccinations. Biggest day all month with 560,000 newbies; 860,000 total.
Finally about to reach the July 4th goal of 70% adults with ≥1 dose pic.twitter.com/916Ga5IIqk

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 30, 2021

this and the reply to it gave me a much needed laugh today:

The Delta variant should make the "at least 1 dose" now practically useless, surely?

— Mookie Alexander (@mookiealexander) July 30, 2021

Exclusive: At least 125,000 fully vaccinated Americans tested positive for Covid https://t.co/8MCPVw5orl via @strickdc

— Ken Dilanian (@KenDilanianNBC) July 30, 2021

Subhead is vital: “The 125,682 "breakthrough" cases in 38 states represent less than .08 percent of the 164.2 million-plus people fully vaccinated since January.”

nobody will read the sub-head, and the lede will be buried for eternity.

I would wager there's probably many more true breakthrough cases than that based on the data taht just came out, those are just the ones we know about.

still doesn't make it statistically significant, but more than we saw during Alpha (but there was also less overall transmission too)

So frustrated by the massive failure by much of the media to consider nuance and immediately default to the most clickbait worthy pull for the headlines.

Countering Delta
Sure 😷help, better fit & quality even better
But how do you tell if a vaccinated person without symptoms is infected w/ Delta?
A rapid home antigen test.
Free & frequent testing is done in many countries
But not in the US; they're ignored, not a word about them

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 30, 2021

this is otm and if you're worried e.g. you have out of town visitors or your live with kids and if you can swing the $$$, a reminder that you can buy rapid tests for $25/pair on amazon. we have kids and we have visitors who don't have kids and have being getting out there hitting the pubs and clubs and licking doorknobs etc., so we have a stack by the front door and ask people to take one and hang on the stoop for 15 mins. they're a fact of life in the UK and it's kind of baffling they've never caught on here (especially since there's money to be made).

it's turned into a terrible game of telephone.

The CDC should have said "We should all temporarily mask indoors again, as some new data we got indicates that there is a larger chance of vaccinated people spreading the virus than there previously was with Alpha, and because Delta is so much more transmissible, we should just be safe. Then when transmission gets much lower, we can possibly revisit."

What they actually said was something like "We should all temporarily mask indoors again if you're in a place with hella mad cases, like we think some vaccinated people gots more virus in their nose too and this means breakthrough ppl more likely to get other ppl sick, so like mask plz. there's a report, it's coming out. hot. hot off presses."

then an unnamed source leaks the presentation to the media, provides some commentary, but the media can't get the CDC itself to comment yet, so they all arrive at this message: "We should all vaccinate everywhere again because apparently vaccinated people are just as likely to spread the virus as unvaccinated people, and breakthrough cases are everywhere."

and what probably 40% of the world heard was "vaccines don't work".

xpost I had no idea that was a thing elsewhere until Topol mentioned it. I'm buying some.

i paid $395 for my test today (I will get it all back with insurance, but they didn't take any so I have to file a claim myself - it was a lab-observed PCR test, using the Accula system, that provides results in 30 minutes).

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/breakthrough-covid-cases-least-125-000-fully-vaccinated-americans-have-n1275500?fbclid=IwAR3QiT4RnczbEUpS0Qj1bcJnm2aNxfv1YiQ5wFDqJCNjUW69q9rzWvEGLrQ

Real headline: less than 1/10 of 1% of fully vaccinated people have contracted covid

caveats apply, obviously (some of these people had covid before and now have super-immmunity, this number will go up with Delta, blah blah)

but still

lol still no change in the expectation that we are all starting back in the office full time on Monday morning, but they did squeeze out that 4:45 email to confirm masks are now required in all indoor spaces.

Real headline: less than 1/10 of 1% of fully vaccinated people have contracted covid

I mean, the percentage of unvaccinated people who have contracted COVID since, say, March 2021 (the time interval over which large populations of vaccinated people existed) is also pretty small. (But bigger than 1/10 of 1%!)

I guess important caveat to my post - that number won't capture undiagnosed people.

OK here's an irrational thought I'm having. I feel like a lot of my friends are low-key happy that delta is here because in their view it means there's no real point in mitigation measures anymore, this is just going be an endemic disease that kills vaccinated adults at about the same rate flu does and becomes part of the general ambient background level of sickness and death, accept it and drop the masks.

I am not totally sure their view is wrong, is the thing. But I think it's wrong to be happy about it. But I think it's an irrational fear I have, thinking they're happy about it.

Using delta to justify not hanging out with people i genuinely dont like tomorrow :)))

It's one thing to envisage the hazy future point at which covid has been generally controlled by widespread vaccination to an acceptable level, but that skips right past the horrors that will happen in the interim before we arrive there. otoh, willful blindness like that is very common and helps people cope with situations that are frightening or depressing, so it has its purpose.

I can see there being a certain kind of relief in knowing more or less what sort of future we're looking at. Uncertainty is stressful in itself.

When post-vaccination Delta breakthrough infections do occur, they are much shorter in duration (and less potential for spread) than in unvaccinated people. https://t.co/n1DPHeHwTO preprint today pic.twitter.com/rpJuQtfk2v

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 31, 2021

Anecdotally, the mom of one of my best friends, I may have mentioned three weeks, got COVID. She's vaccinated. Other than a mild fever and feeling lightheaded for a couple days, she was fine in two days. Ten days after her positive test, she tested negative.

*may have mentioned three weeks ago

Also: she's 72.

I can see there being a certain kind of relief in knowing more or less what sort of future we're looking at. Uncertainty is stressful in itself.

To be clear, I am interpreting the relief they're feeling not as "at last, certainty" but as "I don't like wearing a mask or restricting my indoor socializing and I'm relieved that it would now be pointless for me to do so because all hope of containment is gone"

Yea that's definitely a motivator for the lazy.

I've got cool KN95s now. I look like Bane

Worth the read as an attempt to call out the unlettered clickbait on Twitter.

Neanderthal, photographed candidly yesterday

https://i.imgur.com/7mTSaMi.jpg

Wallensky said this today:

“People might come out and say, ‘oh, my friend was vaccinated and got COVID,’” she said. “And what I would say is, if these vaccines are working at 90% protection against symptomatic disease, if you know 10 people who’ve been vaccinated, one of them may be a breakthrough case.”

and I'm kind of at a loss because that is most certainly not what 90% efficiency means, and I guess she's trying to simplify it for laymen, but that's a completely incorrect explanation and the CDC's own website contradicts her as they have entire chapters on how to calculate it.

it greatly overstates the likelihood of breakthrough infection. why give the idiots more rope.

What can I say, you're right, I can't imagine why she said this and I'm sure she's gnashing her teeth over it now.

anybody with expertise even tangentially related to this area that can parse this for me:

The P-town study was not a study that should have been used as the basis for an abrupt change to national policy.

It had (at least) three major issues:

1. exposure misclassification
2. generalizability
3. weak proxies

🧵

— Joseph Allen (@j_g_allen) July 31, 2021

other stuff. ok I'm done doomscrolling today. this isn't a doomy one but it's frustrating to see how much chaos last week's news sewed :(

Delta's Ro is ~6, meaning an average infected, unvaccinated person, unprotected by prior infection or distancing measures, would pass it on to 6 others
That's bad enough, don't make it worse:@CNN keeps saying it's 9.@CDCgov compared it to chickenpox, which has a Ro of 10-12 pic.twitter.com/fdvQatCKCC

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 31, 2021

I don't think we know it's 6 and I don't think we know it's 9 and I don't think there's a single R value that "the truth," but I think "it's at least twice as contagious as the original strain, definitely not as contagious as measles though" is pretty safe.

Early estimates of the Wuhan emergent virus R(0) were in the neighborhood of 3. Obviously a value of 6 or 9 would reflect a far more transmissible disease.

It’s been sobering to see that no matter how many intelligent, capable and dedicated scientists and epidemiologists we have working to help battle a virus like this, the amount of time it takes us to get things relatively under control will still be dictated by the absolute dumbest members of our society.