Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

11 bus goes straight up Madison to the lake, Lily, or you can walk a different route each time for further exercise / vitamin D time / variety

seems to be less true as time goes by. But I guess it depends upon which expert you listen to. Shrug!

we JUST got the vaccines, and the virus itself is pretty novel iirc. New data comes in every day, so there’s still a lot of scope for real experts to interpret it differently

New data comes in every day

yup, good science requires good data and the data gathering on covid and the vaccines is confined to such a short time period that much of the expert advice consists of highly-educated guesswork based on a very limited set of data. there's no time for the more rigorous science of "let's wait on this until we can form a solid consensus". that won't arrive until years from now.

the problem is the masses want instagratification.

like with hurricane forecasting, a few years ago, someone I know "come on, we have to get this forecast right, millions of lives are at stake", and I had to reply "you can't expect a hurricane landfall forecast within 25 miles fucking THREE OR FOUR DAYS PRIOR TO LANDFALL - but the 'millions of people' *have* been warned that where they live is at risk of possible landfall and given plenty of time to fucking evacuate if they need to. quit acting as if everybody is going to die if the NHC doesn't tell you the GPS coordinates for where the storm is going to hit."

(though with those people I actually point out we didn't even have five-day hurricane forecasts when I was a kid. example of improving science - we have them now!)

1. seems to be less true as time goes by. But I guess it depends upon which expert you listen to. Shrug!

― Marty J. Bilge (Old Lunch), Friday, July 30, 2021 11:50 AM bookmarkflaglink

the current 'consensus' is that the vaccines give an eightfold reduction in risk of symptomatic infection, but 25-fold reduction in hospitalization and/or death.

so its protecting against infection, but protecting better against severe outcomes.

there are definitely many more breakthrough infections occurring than with Alpha or Wuhan-strain, for sure, but...if there wasn't much of a reduction in infections while being vaccinated, caseloads would be way worse than they are now.

I wonder how typical the Provincetown situation is compared to the rest of the world. was it a perfect storm, or a guide?

sounds very much like a perfect storm, but I think it could be applied to any vacation destination that sees an abrupt and very large influx of people

Hate to keep harping on this, but sounds like Chicago will be an excellent data point in the near future, for better or worse:

CTA station after lolla 😭 pic.twitter.com/XHyxrtmwhX

— maya (@mayamokh) July 30, 2021

Virginia's weekly vaccine breakthrough report is out. Here is data from June 1 to July 30, which is when Delta circulated. The breakthroughs are still very rare. 97.1% of all cases are unvaxxed. And this is all positives, not just symptomatic. https://t.co/kLzbs79lCa pic.twitter.com/tal3NnsQ6B

— Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) July 30, 2021

New communication challenge: "I'm not getting vaxxed 'cuz I'm as likely to infect others as if I'm not vaxxed."
Answer: no you're not. Even if a vaxxed person w/ breakthru infection is as likely to transmit as unvaxxed infected, chances of GETTING the infection is ~1/8th as high.

— Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) July 30, 2021

right as vaccinations were on the rise again too

Misery/Missouri:

No promise, they say, would entice them to voluntarily get vaccinated, not a $1 million check, or a plea from a loved one, or the encouragement of Donald Trump himself.

Among the few who admitted to getting vaccinated, some described being shamed by friends or family.

One woman, Brittany Hanlon, who wears a mask while battling cancer, said she was heckled for doing so while walking through a Wal-Mart. “Take off your mask!” two women shouted at her as she tried shopping. The women told her, “that the mask was making them uncomfortable,” Hanlon recalled, “which I don’t understand. It’s not like I was doing anything mean or inappropriate, I just had a plain black mask on.”

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/07/27/ozarks-lake-covid-unvaccinated-500784?utm_source=pocket-newtab

there are definitely many more breakthrough infections occurring than with Alpha or Wuhan-strain, for sure, but...if there wasn't much of a reduction in infections while being vaccinated, caseloads would be way worse than they are now.

There's also the fact that a few months back even vaccinated people were being more cautious. If those vaccinated during the (waning?) days of the Alpha or Wuhan-strain were behaving like many are behaving now - going out, chumming around, shopping without a mask, whatever - would there have been more breakthrough infections? Similarly, if things now were the same as they were several months back - more masking, more limited capacity, and so on - would there be less breakthrough Delta infections? We'll never know.

Neanderthal, what is the evidence for more breakthrough infections with Delta strain vs others? Seems likely that the main predictor of more breakthrough infections is more people being vaccinated regardless of strain

CTA station after lolla 😭 pic.twitter.com/XHyxrtmwhX

— maya (@mayamokh) July 30, 2021

― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, July 30, 2021 12:23 PM (thirty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Jeeeezus christ, that's worse than Cubs season on the Red Line. Which was always nightmarish enough without a pandemic.

So glad I managed to kick the 'return to office' can down the road a couple more weeks (less thrilled that it's because we're staying with my gf's parents as our bathroom is being destroyed).

Thanks for the advice re: swimming, everyone; I think I'm going to do it. I like splashing around in the lake, but realistically I'm not going to be swimming laps there (plus those beaches are always being shut down for norovirus or toxic algae or whatever). This is probably the only way I'm going to get back into swimming as exercise. I think it's worth it; hope I'm right.

More breakthrough infections are Delta because 90% of all infections in the vaxx era are Delta, if nothing else.

(If lake swimming while waiting for the current surge to subside, at Madison you can swim out, turn right and use apartment buildings as lap markers)

Just saw my cousin and his family on Instagram on vacation in....

Lake of the Fucking Ozarks!

Unmasked of course

badg, take anything what I say with a grain of salt as I'm no expert, I'm just an aggregator of what I read (and a dismisser of fringe theories). but my basis for saying that was that there did seem to be a modest efficiency study drop in the studies that came out.

it IS hard to truly say if it's a volume thing predominantly or if it is the mutation's ability to evade immunity more easily.

I feel like places that are hot spots are more concern than areas where it's leveled off per caek

xxxxxxxpost

lot of despairing healthcare workers out there on twitter today. people really unhappy with how this news rolled out and I don't blame them. the messaging got butchered by the media, mostly because the CDC fucked it up in the first place.

now, even though the message isn't "whether you're vaccinated or not, you have the same likelihood of spreading the disease", that's what people are hearing, saying "why should I get vaxxed"?

so these incentives are just going to have to be the tip of the iceberg to get people to get shots. hopefully it'll have the opposite effect, that people will get so beleaguered with this virus that they just finally do it.

About fucking time

BREAKING: FDA, under pressure, plans ‘sprint’ to accelerate review of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine for full approval https://t.co/voqfXKphj3

— STAT (@statnews) July 30, 2021

I really wonder if the word "rare" is causing skepticism re: breakthroughs. Seems "far less likely" might be easier to parse.

When people hear five vaxxed friends got it....rare seems farcical

Another thing people are arguing over

The much anticipated latest ONS infection data is out.

E🔼from 1.36% to 1.57% (+15%)
W🔼from 0.47% to 0.62% (+32%)
NI🔼from 0.59% to 1.48% (+151%)
S🔽from 1.24% to 0.94% (-24%)

A short thread follows:

1/ pic.twitter.com/lCwCa6437P

— John Roberts (@john_actuary) July 30, 2021

NEW: lots of attention on ONS Infection Survey today, but some confusion over how it should (and should not) be used to asses whether England’s fall in cases is "real"

Quick thread:

Most attention has gone on ONS “% of people testing positive” metric showing a continued rise pic.twitter.com/4qljnrDeat

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) July 30, 2021

So.... did I catch the end of that story correctly? I heard a bit of it, but following on Twitter is only leading to questionable sources and inconsistent reporting. The gist of the radio report I heard is that Abbott issued an executive order banning cities from requiring masks and vaccines. Just... when do these assholes become accountable for the dead bodies?

What if my mask had a gun on it and could shoot someone?

first, we need to start taking back state legislature majorities from the Republicans, which is growing more difficult due to gerrymandering, but.....also part of the issue is we don't highlight it as a goal or a platform enough. like we think state legislatures don't matter but as we saw in the last election or during COVID YES THEY FUCKING DO.

I wonder how many people who vote for President actually don't bother to pick people that far downballot. fuckery doesn't just happen at the National level, but at the state level, the Federal government can't actually fix a lot of it unless the states are outright passing unconstitutional legislation. and there's a lot of wiggle room to fuck people over without being unconstitutional.

I downplayed the worries of DeSantis being elected Governor in 2018 due to my relief at the Dems getting back the House, but knowing what I know now, I might have wept more.

rapid COVID test is back. negative.

By the way, if this is at all representative of the minds of the great unvaxxed ...

The Chris Cuomo interview with Huntington Beach, CA restaurant owner Tony Roman was next level WTF.

It was almost comical. #CuomoPrimeTime #chriscuomo #cnn #tonyroman #California #COVIDIOTS pic.twitter.com/jybiIDamSk

— AC Junior 😷 (@CamJunior1972) July 29, 2021

proof of being unvaccinated.

i'd just whip out my dick at the owner and piss on him and tell him to get the piss tested

Your proof of eating there will be diarrhea.

total vaccinations in the US today exceeded 800,000. cannot even remember the last time we hurdled that, I think we had a random day over 1 million a month or two ago but that to me seemed like spillover from one day to the next.

let's hope it keeps moving up.

One thing Delta and the hullabaloo has brought us: more US vaccinations. Biggest day all month with 560,000 newbies; 860,000 total.
Finally about to reach the July 4th goal of 70% adults with ≥1 dose pic.twitter.com/916Ga5IIqk

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 30, 2021

this and the reply to it gave me a much needed laugh today:

The Delta variant should make the "at least 1 dose" now practically useless, surely?

— Mookie Alexander (@mookiealexander) July 30, 2021

Exclusive: At least 125,000 fully vaccinated Americans tested positive for Covid https://t.co/8MCPVw5orl via @strickdc

— Ken Dilanian (@KenDilanianNBC) July 30, 2021

Subhead is vital: “The 125,682 "breakthrough" cases in 38 states represent less than .08 percent of the 164.2 million-plus people fully vaccinated since January.”

nobody will read the sub-head, and the lede will be buried for eternity.

I would wager there's probably many more true breakthrough cases than that based on the data taht just came out, those are just the ones we know about.

still doesn't make it statistically significant, but more than we saw during Alpha (but there was also less overall transmission too)

So frustrated by the massive failure by much of the media to consider nuance and immediately default to the most clickbait worthy pull for the headlines.

Countering Delta
Sure 😷help, better fit & quality even better
But how do you tell if a vaccinated person without symptoms is infected w/ Delta?
A rapid home antigen test.
Free & frequent testing is done in many countries
But not in the US; they're ignored, not a word about them

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 30, 2021

this is otm and if you're worried e.g. you have out of town visitors or your live with kids and if you can swing the $$$, a reminder that you can buy rapid tests for $25/pair on amazon. we have kids and we have visitors who don't have kids and have being getting out there hitting the pubs and clubs and licking doorknobs etc., so we have a stack by the front door and ask people to take one and hang on the stoop for 15 mins. they're a fact of life in the UK and it's kind of baffling they've never caught on here (especially since there's money to be made).

it's turned into a terrible game of telephone.

The CDC should have said "We should all temporarily mask indoors again, as some new data we got indicates that there is a larger chance of vaccinated people spreading the virus than there previously was with Alpha, and because Delta is so much more transmissible, we should just be safe. Then when transmission gets much lower, we can possibly revisit."

What they actually said was something like "We should all temporarily mask indoors again if you're in a place with hella mad cases, like we think some vaccinated people gots more virus in their nose too and this means breakthrough ppl more likely to get other ppl sick, so like mask plz. there's a report, it's coming out. hot. hot off presses."

then an unnamed source leaks the presentation to the media, provides some commentary, but the media can't get the CDC itself to comment yet, so they all arrive at this message: "We should all vaccinate everywhere again because apparently vaccinated people are just as likely to spread the virus as unvaccinated people, and breakthrough cases are everywhere."

and what probably 40% of the world heard was "vaccines don't work".

xpost I had no idea that was a thing elsewhere until Topol mentioned it. I'm buying some.

i paid $395 for my test today (I will get it all back with insurance, but they didn't take any so I have to file a claim myself - it was a lab-observed PCR test, using the Accula system, that provides results in 30 minutes).

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/breakthrough-covid-cases-least-125-000-fully-vaccinated-americans-have-n1275500?fbclid=IwAR3QiT4RnczbEUpS0Qj1bcJnm2aNxfv1YiQ5wFDqJCNjUW69q9rzWvEGLrQ

Real headline: less than 1/10 of 1% of fully vaccinated people have contracted covid

caveats apply, obviously (some of these people had covid before and now have super-immmunity, this number will go up with Delta, blah blah)

but still

lol still no change in the expectation that we are all starting back in the office full time on Monday morning, but they did squeeze out that 4:45 email to confirm masks are now required in all indoor spaces.

Real headline: less than 1/10 of 1% of fully vaccinated people have contracted covid

I mean, the percentage of unvaccinated people who have contracted COVID since, say, March 2021 (the time interval over which large populations of vaccinated people existed) is also pretty small. (But bigger than 1/10 of 1%!)

I guess important caveat to my post - that number won't capture undiagnosed people.

OK here's an irrational thought I'm having. I feel like a lot of my friends are low-key happy that delta is here because in their view it means there's no real point in mitigation measures anymore, this is just going be an endemic disease that kills vaccinated adults at about the same rate flu does and becomes part of the general ambient background level of sickness and death, accept it and drop the masks.

I am not totally sure their view is wrong, is the thing. But I think it's wrong to be happy about it. But I think it's an irrational fear I have, thinking they're happy about it.

Using delta to justify not hanging out with people i genuinely dont like tomorrow :)))

It's one thing to envisage the hazy future point at which covid has been generally controlled by widespread vaccination to an acceptable level, but that skips right past the horrors that will happen in the interim before we arrive there. otoh, willful blindness like that is very common and helps people cope with situations that are frightening or depressing, so it has its purpose.

I can see there being a certain kind of relief in knowing more or less what sort of future we're looking at. Uncertainty is stressful in itself.