Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

whisper it, but there's some very vague hints that this wave is peaking in southern calfifornia, 5ish weeks in, which would be on time if the UK/netherlands is the template.

What is the significance of the shorter "peaking" and faster infections? Lower R number? Or what?

What was already going to feel like a potentially long fall and winter is going to feel even longer for parents with kids under 12:

New from #Pfizer. #COVID19 vaccine data expected for children ages 5-11 by end of September. This is later than previously expected. Authorization not likely until end of 2021.

— Dr. Sanjay Gupta (@drsanjaygupta) July 28, 2021

not directly related to R (although if the infectious stage is shorter you could imagine that either reducing R because people are infectious for less time, or increasing R because people are less likely to know they've got it while they're still infectious).

the point is more (from my POV as someone trying to figure out how long my kids are going to have to hunker down this time): if people are infectious for a shorter period of time, that implies the population level wave of infections will also be shorter (say 2-3 months instead of 3-4 months).

although if the infectious stage is shorter you could imagine that either reducing R because people are infectious for less time, or increasing R because people are less likely to know they've got it while they're still infectious

Thanks, caek. I was thinking of the former without taking into account the latter.

Right: R is "new infections per infection" but doesn't tell you the doubling time, which is governed by lower-case "r", see

https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/set-c/set-covid-19-R-estimates.pdf

Shorter infectious period + same R = (roughly, of course) shorter doubling time: same overall level of population penetration but it all happens over a shorter period of time (which is BAD if you are worried about hospitals being overwhelmed but in hi-vax pops like UK the great news is that the amplitude of the hospitalization spike is going to be way way lower than in previous waves)

...per CDC: viral loads in Delta breakthrus=those in non-vaxxed pts. That means concern #1 is real. Today, @NEJM Israeli study: 19% breakthru infctns led to symptoms 6 wks later; supports concern #2. https://t.co/4tjkl7Ndjn Upshot: vaxxed should mask indoors until ⬆vax, ⬇cases.

— Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) July 28, 2021

There were 1,497 workers in the study.

There were 39 breakthrough cases (2.6 percent)

19 percent of the breakthroughs - which comes to 7 or 8 workers out of the original 1,497 -had Covid symptoms beyond 6 weeks.

— Bill Grueskin (@BGrueskin) July 28, 2021

acquaintances of mine already grousing about having to wear the mask again, asking "why did I bother getting the shot?".

i don't know how to keep explaining to these dumdums other than to be relieved they already got shots at least

xpost weird thing is that study was 85% of the cases in that study were Alpha strain.

likewise, that study said in all case studies, the person who passed on the virus was unvaccinated. so I am guessing Bob's thoughts in the Tweet aren't connected. i.e., the CDC is saying that the viral load in unvaccinated people = the same as vaccinated people in many cases, and we see that unvaccinated people can cause long COVID, so be careful.

someone quoted that the study about increased viral load that the CDC is referring to was a study in mice but I haven't verified that yet.

it was an idiot theology student and Bob Wachter is a trusted resource though so I'm gonna go with "probably not the case"

positive news - 754k vaccinations reported in US today, continuing slight uptick in vaccinations over the last week.

My mom just got back from a long planned trip to a couple of countries in Africa. Lots of precautions, lots of planes, lots of transfers, lots of PCR tests, and it seems she returned unscathed. Fingers crossed.

My parents had a trip to Oz planned for the fall, that's been cancelled (thank God)

so I see a lot of grousing, some even from scientists/infectious disease doctors about the last CDC guidance. most of it is because it's unclear (which I do agree with - relying on citizens to know if they're in a high transmission zone will likely go very poorly). but some are actually challenging the data, and yet up until now I couldn't find it.

I'm seeing this cited as the study behind the "vaccinated people can transmit" announcement yesterday: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.08.443253v3 . anybody know if it is?

doesn't help the cause that the 3 scientists/doctors (one of who is an Epi at Johns Hopkins, another who works in the NIAID-NIH) I've seen shitting on the study seemed to be smug assholes who had some kind of ulterior motive.

also, here's some Ashish Jha

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/life-in-a-half-vaccinated-country

and

The Israeli estimate of relatively high immune escape from Delta that a lot of you were freaking out about now looks like it was the result of sloppy statistical analysis. https://t.co/F5sHsJDFF1

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 28, 2021

Seems to be a pretty common theme with these Israeli studies lately, no? Here's some depressing data that's going to rapidly go viral... followed by some clarifications/updates that don't seem to go viral nearly as fast.

Anyway, struggling today with having to cancel plans we optimistically made during that flush of bright news earlier this summer. We were on the fence about traveling to my cousin's wedding in September anyway (this is already her second rescheduling since her original date was June 2020), but with the delay in 12 and under vaccinations and the location being in a hot spot, we officially sent our regrets. And it looks like our planned trip to the UP later next month is less and less likely to happen with each passing day/news update.

It felt like we were seeing the light at the end of the tunnel (which believe me, I am not confusing with COVID 0 by any means) earlier this summer, but... fucking America. We ruined it. A massive super spreader event 10 miles from my house kicking off today isn't helping my sour mood.

Tomorrow I'm going for my first hospital appointment and my first bus ride since March last year. Next month I'm going for my first train ride (London to Broadstairs) to an AirBNB.

It feels like most of my friends are doing these things now, even the ones who are as (or more) chickenshit than I am, but still feel pretty anxious about it! Not as much as if I hadn't been vaxxed, but still anxious.

i mostly saw this among people who seemed to have not-so-great ulterior motives, but now starting to see this on scientists I follow and trust on Twitter, asking the CDC for the data they used in the study. this person is not questioning re-instituting masks, but wanting to be shown the data, and questioning some of the source of the CDC's data. appears to work for NIAID-NIH:

We desperately need clarity out of the CDC regarding their assertion that they have data demonstrating vaccinated individuals can transmit Delta variant due to similar viral load as unvaccinated individuals mainly due to the fact this assertion is partially based off of a

— Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉 (@sailorrooscout) July 28, 2021

Even before we get to the actual after effects of Lollapalooza, I'm wondering if we will see a huge spike in Chicago cases because of all of the people traveling in and taking tests to get access. Hearing anecdotal reports of hour and a half to two hour waits at express locations for testing. Presumably we might see a significant spike even before the spread impacts start kicking in.

Absolutely shameful that Chicago allowed this to proceed.

My mom told me that on her overseas trip she just took, the "express" PCR tests often took 2 1/2 hours. FWIW, she was required to have a negative PCR test to get back into the U.S., but she said no one checked!

I agree that it's ridiculous Lollapalooza is happening. I mean, we all know what will come of it, the question is really how bad will it be?

It's even more frustrating to listen to Lightfoot finger wag and threaten further restrictions, lockdowns and mandates because of the rising case counts, but blindly pushing forward with Lollapalooza. Guarantee she'll be issuing restrictions first thing Monday morning, before the stages even get torn down.

Which isn't to say I don't think we need further restrictions, given the spread, but it's insane that we plowed ahead with this super spreader event at the exact same time.

https://i1.wp.com/brightestyoungthings.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/tumblr_ndsqxzVaBw1r28y5wo1_400.gif

Oh sure, we all know exactly why, doesn't make me feel any better about it.

In terms of better venue approaches:

https://www.kqed.org/arts/13900368/more-california-music-venues-require-vaccinations-negative-covid-tests-for-entry

really love allergy season for making me paranoid every time. I just got over a bout, and they're back with the exact same symptoms.

don’t know why anybody’s worried about Lollapalooza, check this public health initiative

Quite a warning in Grant Park: “By attending Lollapalooza, you voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to COVID-19.”

Gates open at 11. #Lollapalooza pic.twitter.com/5k9qAtS0eV

— Jenna Barnes (@Jenna_Barnes) July 29, 2021

This is what was posted in Savannah two weeks ago:

https://i.imgur.com/yrLQgJm.jpg

Even before we get to the actual after effects of Lollapalooza

It was such a spectacle of joy and even just watching clips of it filled me with delight, but it does seem to me that packing 70K people into the Deer District in Milwaukee for game 6 of the finals was probably a bad idea. I mean, yes, outside. Yes, a fair amount of vaccination in the crowd. But close quarters and yelling, yelling, yelling for hours.

Lolla is all that plus partying young people (who are already less likely to be vaxxed and demonstrably irresponsible in the best of circumstances).

It's not so much the outdoors part, it's all the afterparties and shows in crowded indoor clubs and bars that worry me. Not to mention the hotel parties and kids packed 15-20 to a room for three days.

Re: assumption of the risk signs, similar signs are in every stadium everywhere regarding inherent dangers of attending sporting events. It's what prevents you from suing the stadium if you get hit by a baseball. Now, it's a sad day that getting the coronavirus is an inherent risk of going to a music festival, but here we are.

tl;dr = don't go to music festivals.

xp Deer District

was pretty crazy when ABC would cut from the coach being interviewed on the court during a time-out, standing 10 feet away from the interviewer (who was also masked) to 70,000 people outside the arena basically climbing each others backs like the zombies in Z Nation.

Had the pre-shutdown experience this morning of being in a diner with two young junkies in the adjacent booth, nodding off on a Thursday morning and not saying much, one of them sneezing a bunch and telling me (after it took a long while to get his attention) that it was allergies when I asked if he'd been tested recently.

Radio reporting from Lollapalooza just described it as a beautiful summer day, which is a lie. It is pushing 90 and humid as balls. These dummies must really, really want COVID-19.

And then there’s *next* weekend’s big event:

Should Market Days and the Pride Parade require masks and proof of vaccination?

Howard Brown, the city's largest LGBTQ health provider, says yes. But Market Days' organizers say they'll follow city guidelines instead. More on @BlockClubCHI.https://t.co/og7xpGFeGr

— Jake Wittich (@JakeWittich) July 28, 2021

Lightfoot's cronies don't make nearly as much money off of that event though, so she'll get the go ahead to put the kibosh on big gatherings the minute Lolla rolls up.

article on breakthroughs: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/07/anatomy-of-a-vaccine-breakthrough/619562/

Honestly a very promising sign.

I’m reading a lot of anti-COVID vaccine forums, and it’s striking how quickly the posters fold and get the vaccine as soon as it’s mandated by their jobs/colleges/govs. The other posters tell them to go off the grid and live in the woods, but not a lot of takers on that idea.

— Will Sommer (@willsommer) July 29, 2021

I'm confused by the lack of discussion of the people who had covid and have antibodies in this discussion of vaccines. My work started testing us last year when test became available and I tested positive last July. I was surprised because I wasn't feeling any different than usual but I had my blood work done and my doctor confirmed that I had covid. Since my first negative test I have my blood work done every other month and just last week I still have antibodies and my doctor has advised me that getting the vaccine would be my choice but not his recommendation since I had covid. Are people who had covid getting the vaccine?

yes. either the CDC (and equivalent agencies all over the world) or your doctor are alarmingly wrong.

Are people who had covid getting the vaccine?

I had Covid in March 2020, a mild case. when I donated blood Red Cross picked up on my antibodies and they've been studying them ever since, and those antibodies have definitely been in decline. if I didn't get the vaccine, did I have enough antibodies to prevent me from catching covid again? we'll never know.

I would find a new doctor.

anyway, last recommendation I saw was that if you had a positive covid case, especially one with symptoms, you've probably got a good three months worth of protection, so you might not need a vaccine ASAP. at the same time, I don't think it will hurt you to get the vaccine ASAP.

sobering bulletin from a long-standing local band in Bloomington IN:

Some of you may be aware, or have word of a COVID outbreak traced back to a local music event at a venue here in Bloomington last week. The Dynamics are aware of it, because one of our members was likely exposed to folks who have tested positive. We cancelled band practice this week as a precaution. I have just received a message on FB asking me to post this message from someone who has been directly affected by this outbreak. I am doing so, because I think it's a message that needs to be seen.

This is From Paula Patton: "Bob and I tested positive for Covid-19 on Monday. He was at a music event last Tuesday where everyone was unmasked. WE ARE FULLY VACCINATED, so technically that was ok. Other people from the event have posted that they have it and they were also vaccinated. It passed from Bob to me immediately and another friend, neither of us were at this event. I am VIOLENTLY ill, this virus is NO joke!! I may have died from this if not vaccinated, I believe it has kept me from being hospitalized. The vaccine does not mean we can go around maskless anymore. The Delta variant is way more transmissible and now we know that even vaccinated people CAN and WILL spread it. If you haven't gotten your shots, DO IT and wear your mask everywhere! We have to eradicate this f*cking virus, soon! Do not do this to your family, friends, coworkers and acquaintances! If enough people are vaccinated, it may go away."

I thought consult your doctor was the standard practice? My doctor has been treating me for pleurisy which I finally overcame before this pandemic happened, hopefully, a few more test left. He knows my history and blood work ups. He's given me MRI's and I've been on steroids and Zpacks for 2 years. The measures I took to invest in my health at his advice has improved my life drastically. But I should find a new doctor because we had a long discussion about if I should get the vaccines? But my larger question was about natural immunity, is that just not possible?

I don't think so, no. Antibodies provide *some* level of immunity, but the vaccine provides exponentially more.