Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

and the non-infected vaccinated have nothing to post about

Sure, that absolutely makes sense.

My fear is the uncertainty around how easily fully vaxxed people are passing it around, unwittingly and unknowingly because they have seemingly little impetus or reason to test.

Well, this was always the question; the clinical trials tested whether vaccinated people experienced symptomatic COVID, not whether they got infected at all. That said, transmission clearly crashed when vaccination got seriously underway, and remains clearly lower in places where more of the population is vaccinated, so the reasonable guess that vaccination is strongly protective against infection and transmission is still looking pretty good. (I don't see the existence of widely shared anecdotal true reports of vaccinated people testing positive as in conflict with this.)

I guess my point is that we still don't seem to have a handle on just how easily transmissible the variants are to fully vaxxed people.

In bluntest terms - my very specific fear is that we've got a whole bunch of asymptomatic, fully vaccinated people passing this around because they have no cause for concern and/or need to test. So I'll be "returning to work" every day, all day, in an environment that I have much less control over and I'll end up unwittingly taking it home to my unvaccinated kid because people at my work are unwittingly passing it around.

xpost - posted this before eephus' post, which helps ease those (perhaps irrational!) fears a bit. love to see more data, but i'm guessing that will take time

In bluntest terms - my very specific fear is that we've got a whole bunch of asymptomatic, fully vaccinated people passing this around because they have no cause for concern and/or need to test. So I'll be "returning to work" every day, all day, in an environment that I have much less control over and I'll end up unwittingly taking it home to my unvaccinated kid because people at my work are unwittingly passing it around.

This isn't true as far as we know. This morning on MSNBC an epidemiologist said no evidence exists for asymptomatic fully jabbed people infecting others.

vaccinated viral load is supposedly reduced. I think the paper I saw yesterday showed that it also reduced risk of passing along by 50%. so some might not have enough viral load to infect others, and the ones that do may pass on mild disease only.

nothing's 100%, so it's 'theoretically possible', but the main reason more vaccinated people are reporting breakthrough infections is simply that there are more infections, period, and we're likely undercounting the true case count due to undertesting. with more cases comes more breakthrough infections. whereas when we had a very light case load country-wide, less anecdotal reports about that because a) less breakthrough infections b) people less panicked since virus was in retreat at that time, so wasn't as newsworthy

(and when I say reduced by 50%, I don't mean 50% of vaccinated people who get infected pass it on, I mean the risk is reduced by 50% of that happening, or that you're 50% more likely to infect someone if you're infected if you're unvaccinated than if you are vaccinated)

YMMV but here's an email i just sent about how i think our family (with 2 unvaccinated kids) should respond to the surge. i would not make changes on anything like this scale if i didn't have kids. but ...

cases are up 10x in a month here, and no reason at all other than wishful thinking to think that will not continue on the UK trajectory (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases), i.e. a surge in cases roughly equal to winter. In fact there's good reason to think the current rate is an undercount by more than it was in the winter because the average case is so much less serious now (and therefore less likely to be detected).

So... it seems quite possible that many/most people who aren’t vaccinated are going to get it this time. This is why I think we need to operate under the assumption that we’re going to lose daycare for a couple of weeks at some point (either because they have to close, or we have to quarantine). It seems very unlikely they won't get an outbreak there over the next few months. Fantastically unlikely that any kids (or vaccinated teachers) get serious cases of course!

I don’t think vaccinated people are significantly more vulnerable to delta than they were to previous variants, but this is the first time there’s going to be a lot of cases around since people got vaccinated, and we’re inevitably going to see some breakthroughs, possibly among people we know.

I don’t personally feel much need to go shopping or dining, but I wouldn’t begrudge anyone vaccinated who did. But we want to remind everyone who comes into contact with the kids to be on the lookout for symptoms in themselves, and let them know it’s OK to cancel if they’re suspicious. And we have a stack of rapid tests that we should use for anyone who is uncertain. Not yet, but if things get really bad here I don’t think it would be crazy to ask our regular visitors (we have a couple of relatives who come over a few days/week to help with baby, etc.) to take a rapid test at the start of each week.

I bought some real KF94 masks for the kid who's old enough to wear them (if we're going to make him wear a mask, he should wear a real one, not some cloth nonsense). I also bought a stack of home rapid tests https://www.amazon.com/dp/B093ND7LX4?psc=1&ref=ppx_yo2_dt_b_product_details. I am also laying down a bunch of new lego sets against what seems like inevitable loss of childcare at some point in the next couple of months.

covid "2019" my arse btw.

Genuinely thanks for sharing that caek, that's a really thoughtful and reasonable approach it seems. I think that helps put words to how and why I'm feeing unsettled right now, in a much more clear and concise manner.

.@LeaderMcConnell pleads with Americans to get the Covid vaccine. "I want to underscore in the strongest possible manner I can... These shots need to get in everybody's arm as rapidly as possible or we're going to be back in a situation in the fall that...we went thru last year." pic.twitter.com/3xUEGwiYg0

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) July 20, 2021

xp 👍🏻

Steve Scalise got his first Covid vaccination shot...on Sunday https://t.co/nCueRRpGrT

— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) July 20, 2021

Here's a list of bars in LA that now require proof of vax (or a negative COVID-19 test within 72 hours) to enter. If you hear of more spots, please let us know @LATACO https://t.co/D8fcIPlYFs https://t.co/YgDyaHKA0N pic.twitter.com/0iGmgmybla

— Lexis-Olivier Ray (@ShotOn35mm) July 20, 2021

Good idea, even if deej doesn't agree.

lol insanely annoying that smart bar makes you being a vaccine card … 🙄

— david drake (@somanyshrimp) July 10, 2021

i figure people can go to one of the other bars in la county if they don't like the policy at these 8 places

A vaccination policy is probably the only thing that could persuade me to go to a crowded bar these days.

DeSantis has pretty much made that impossible for us Floridians by signing the 'vaccine passport' ban that bans businesses from refusing service based on vaccination status. that and outright threats of bodily harm/violence from anti-vax thugs here.

the man is a monster.

lot of blood on his hands. and death

the loophole: a business can still require its employees to get jabbed.

The chef/proprietor of a powerful restaurant group in Miami-Dade did, according to a bartender I trust.

Been touring colleges. Went from Indiana (which is requiring vaccines for everyone) to Miami of Ohio, which is not. It seems like a fine school, but after our tour guide went on and on about how accommodating the school was to her health issues, and kept saying how much the school cares about the health and safety of its students, I asked if vaccines were required for incoming students and she winced and said not yet. So I said I guess the school only cares about the safety and health of its students so much. She said the school didn't want to make it political, and that they generally follow the lead of Ohio State.

But right now only five colleges in Ohio reportedly require vaccines. In fact, our guide said she recently fielded a call from an angry parent whose child was transferring *to* Miami of Ohio specifically *because* the vaccine was not required. That's fucked up. Talk about making it political, who wants to go to a school that positions itself as a refuge from vaccines?

She said the school didn't want to make it political, and that they generally follow the lead of Ohio State.

Would have had a hard time not immediately walking away at that point.

Was literally at the very, very end, so ... we did walk away after that!

lol fair enough!

The Indiana vaccine requirement gives me hope for the fall when I start teaching at a UWisconsin branch campus.

Just published @NEJM
Vaccine protection against the Delta variant from >4,000 cases + comparison w/ Alpha, by @PHE_uk
—mRNA, 2-dose: 88% effectiveness vs *any* symptomatic infection
—AZ, 2-dose: 67% pic.twitter.com/v0C57Okaec

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 21, 2021

Foxnews prism on this Alabama doctor story.

"Better think twice on anything you read on Facebook."

https://www.foxnews.com/us/alabama-doctor-coronavirus-vaccine-too-late

HA!

Second moderna jab yesterday - first jab did very little and what with a lot of places ruling that if you've had it you only need one I really expected this to have no effect whatsoever. Not so! Aching limbs, fever, constipation, there's a whole lotta shakin' goin' on.

In today's Ohio adventure (Columbus) I was just one of 7 unmasked in an elevator (my first crowded elevator in a year at half), but more distressing was the dad who was last to board with his will under 12-year-old son (maybe 4?) who of course was not vaccinated and also had his fingers in his mouth full time. yuck. Different strokes ...

not sharing this to say "good news!", so much as share what Topol is saying. I'm taking with a grain of salt until we get more data post re-opening, especially since the math folk have indicated some of the numbers may be impacted by slower COVID test results which could lead to a spreading out of reporting. buuuuut....this is the first week we haven't seen a huuuuge jump on Thursday in a while.

going to find what the math guys are saying after this tweet:

This could turn out to be the best covid news of the day:
The UK new cases appear to be starting descent, 39,906 today (not on this @ourWorldofData graph yet) 🙏 (hope)https://t.co/pItJxXPpv6 pic.twitter.com/6X4MFm6dET

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 22, 2021

closer to what *I* believe rn:

Just for centrist balance, encouraging case numbers, but I think I'd want to see a few days of trend, and it's all a phoney war right now until the effects of Monday's opening start to show up in next week's data.

— Oliver Johnson (@BristOliver) July 22, 2021

i mean to an extent this is numerology without a few more days data but if the uk wave has already peaked it would be the shortest/narrowest wave in the history of the disease, which tbh seems unlikely.

(and yeah, reopening might show up in a couple of weeks, although it seems like pretty much everyone in the UK has to self-isolate so maybe not.)

I know there was a lot of talk about the 'football effect' showing in the totals but I got the impression that had already passed so I don't think it accounts for the drop. in either case though i will continue watching everything daily as I already do.

someone i work with has just gotten symptomatic COVID. her two little girls have tested positive. also she’s pregnant. she’s pretty sure she got it from her husband who was at Wembley.

(for the final)

ah shit.
Friend of a friend - routine school testing found their 3 kids were positive but asymptomatic.
I'm double-jabbed now at least so less worried about myself.

Train back to London. First train, Glasgow to Crewe, most people in my carriage not wearing masks. Worst offenders are men, aged 25-50. Older people and young woman seem much more conscientious. Couples and families tend to be pretty lax. Second train, Crewe to London, looked to be much better - until an entire extended family of Orthodox Jews got on, not wearing masks, I kid you not! I've heard that, since they started dropping like flies, the Orthodox community has been getting vaccinated, but who knows?

Would you buy plane tickets for Thanksgiving now? (One under-12 kid, remainder of family vaxxed, seems not that likely vaccine will be approved for under-12s in time.) I am thinking yes and if the situation gets tons worse I can cancel like I did last spring's travel. I've already traveled, large segments of my family don't have small kids and I am 100% sure family Thanksgiving is going to happen. What are you all doing? I feel like if I wait too long the tickets will go or become ruinously expensive.

Fortunately we don't have to fly to see family, but if I was in your shoes I would probably by the tickets now just in case. As you say, I'd worry about how insanely expensive things will get and, presumably, this surge will have peaked well before November (although probably just around the corner from the winter surge at that point).

The struggle for me right now is mostly just being frustrated to see the surging case numbers and knowing there is no way vaccines will be approved in time to help give our kid that extra level of protection in time for it.

Super disappointed to hear most people in train FROM Glasgow not wearing masks. Your post has led me to choose to fly instead.

I can't tell if its the increasingly frantic reporting about the delta variant or what, but I'm starting to get some real second week of March 2020 vibes this week like we are on the precipice of some real, big deal changes. Like I don't think the U.S. will see any significant lockdowns or mandates again (that ship has long sailed), but I won't be surprised to see big gatherings getting canceled again, select elementary schools going remote in the fall, etc etc.

To be fair, a big part of it is hearing people like Jim DeRo calling for Chicago to cancel Lollapalooza (so not gonna happen), so it feels like a redux of the big St. Patrick's Day parade thing here.

Don't listen to the surface noise. Most of us live in urban centers where vac rates are good to excellent, jon. No one here's crazy. I'd be more reluctant about traveling to a city/county with jab rates below 60 percent.

that’s what i’m doing on sunday 😞

I live in an urban center with high vax rates, and cases and hospitalizations are both spiking dramatically. I don't think we are close to being out of this shit at all.

i’m heading to one of the least vaxxed states in the union to see my extremely vaxxed parents with my extremely not-vaxxed kids (who i think have probably been exposed to COVID about twenty times in the past year). i’m not too worried but starting to feel a little edgy

what i’m telling myself is that it’s about relative risk. the risk is very very low. my dad is 85. the best thing i could do for his health would be to make sure he never gets behind the wheel of a car.

Look, it depends what you do. If you feel uneasy, don't go to crowded indoor spaces. Visiting jabbed people looks otherwise okay.

This is the fucked thing. We all have to do perpetual risk assessment.

It's exhausting. But it's because you do it that you're all still kicking and I'm glad

Citrus County is currently 41% fully vaxed. I probably see fewer than 1 out of 20 people wearing masks.

You live in Florida? You may have mentioned it but damn.

Aren't there 20 people in Citrus, period?