Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

Today has been a continuous stream of press conferences where premiers, CHOs and ministers should at each other.

Los Angeles County public health authorities are urging unvaccinated and vaccinated people alike to don masks again inside restaurants, stores and other public indoor spaces because of the growing threat posed by the more contagious delta variant of the novel coronavirus.

The high-profile move by the county of 10 million marks an abrupt shift in tone after states and localities have dropped most mask mandates and social distancing requirements in recent weeks. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in mid-May rescinded almost all masking recommendations for fully vaccinated people.

But the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health cited a growing share of new cases linked to the delta variant, which was first detected during India’s catastrophic surge of infections and has upended reopening plans across the globe, in “strongly recommending” a return to masking. Los Angeles dropped its mask mandate for vaccinated people with the rest of California on June 15, with limited exceptions for public transportation, hospitals and schools.

County health officials said 123 people were infected with the delta variant from June 4 to 18. Ten were fully vaccinated, and none of those people needed hospital care. Three people infected with delta were partially vaccinated, and 110 were not vaccinated; two people were hospitalized.

“Fully vaccinated people are well protected against serious illness and disease caused by variants of concern including the Delta variant,” Barbara Ferrer, the county’s public health director, said in a statement.

Etc. I'm beginning to think unvaccinated people should get vaccinated, but we probably need more data.

Their messaging is shit.

It's kind of a running theme.

“Fully vaccinated people are well protected against serious illness and disease caused by variants of concern including the Delta variant,”

OK...so why recommend masking? It's not like anti-jabbers will get worse, but this is the kind of muddle which makes Thanksgiving dinner conversations a delight.

I'd guess that the 'serious' in 'serious illness and disease' is carrying a lot of the weight there.

Call me crazy, but I'd like to avoid even an unserious case of COVID if I can.

OK...so why recommend masking?

I'm guessing because the messaging has become so shit around masks since the CDC effectively told everyone "hey y'all, masks off!" a few months back.

Going “fuck it, mask off” gave cover for covidiots to stop masking despite not being vaccinated. These are the people who are mostly contracting and spreading the virus. If everybody wears masks, the spread will be reduced.

Well, by default, because I think you mean "if everyone *unvaccinated* wears masks, the spread will be reduced," because it's not the vaxxed that are spreading it. And of course if everyone just wears a mask that covers all bases, but ironically it's the vaccinated that are probably more likely to wear a mask again, not the unvaxxed.

The (WaPo) article goes on to say "Los Angeles officials are also concerned by reports of some fully vaccinated people contracting cases of the delta variant in Israel and want to learn more about the variant and how it spreads." Whatever that means.

right, persuading vaxxed people to mask up again seems like a drop in the ocean vs unvaccinated people who just dngaf

xpost it means 6 months into vaccines, local officials still don't understand the concept of 'breakthrough infections'.

like obviously, there is a threshold of 'breakthrough infections' that suggests your vaccine doesn't actually work (like possibly Sinovac), but....that's not what's happened in Israel. yes, 50% of the new infections were vaccinated people, but it was a really small sample size to begin with, and that just means half of the breakthrough infections were from people who were vaxxed, not that 50% of vaccinated will be at risk for getting it.

it's worth studying and is already being studied by the WHO, CDC, Fauci, the NIH, etc, but constantly spreading news of "someone who got vaccinated got infected" as if it's mind-blowing, unexpected news continues to cause confusion on how vaccines work and their effectiveness, which doesn't help convince people to get vaccinated.

Israel has a very high vaccination rate, as that rate goes up, the % of new cases that hit vaccinated people also goes up, and that's a good thing.

Fewer living Netanyahu supporters?

at some point, 100% of new cases will be with vaccinated people, but that means everyone is vaccinated and there are very few new cases

current theory for US, at least: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/covid-delta-variant-us-unlikely-to-have-another-raging-epidemic-gottlieb-says.html

which doesn't mean that we won't see increases nationally or in undervaxxed areas and possibly increases in hospitalizations/deaths in these areas, but that the protection should blunt the rise.

but, as with all things COVID, this is far from a certainty.

no one under 12 is vaccinated yet right? I understand there are reasons to be less concerned about that population, but still

that's correct, I think there are trials for younger people but nobody below 12 actively getting jabs.

I *think* China approved Sinovac for kids 3-17, though I have no idea if they are administering it. I think Russia has a nasal spray being readied for kids 8-12. And yeah, Pfizer and Moderna are testing on kids as young as 6 months, iirc. But really, none of these vaccines have been given full FDA approval yet, and all of them are operating under emergency rules, so I assume vax for kids under 12 will arrive sooner rather than later.

the LAPH mask recommendation is weird. i don't think it's good science for vaccinated people to mask. to the extent this recommendation encourages unvaxxed people to wear masks (a little bit, maaaaaybe?) it miiiiight be good public health for a local population that is generally pretty sympathetic to public health. the problem here is not white trump voters. it's people who don't have time/access to information about vaccination. and it might help encourage those people to go back to masking if everyone is masking again.

the reason they're doing it now is that cases are just starting to tick up here, and positivity rate is going up pretty quickly (which is usually what comes first). the fact that this is even happening in a region where like 1/3 of people have some natural immunity after the brutal winter and has now pretty high vaccine rates is ... not a good sign.

Well, by default, because I think you mean "if everyone *unvaccinated* wears masks, the spread will be reduced,"

I do not: "the unvaccinated" is a subset and byproduct of "everyone."

because it's not the vaxxed that are spreading it. And of course if everyone just wears a mask that covers all bases, but ironically it's the vaccinated that are probably more likely to wear a mask again, not the unvaxxed.

Then business owners will know who to refuse access to, and people will know which randos to steer clear of in the street, and not be forced to share indoor spaces with unvaccinated ppl, and more unvaccinated will feel social pressure to return to being masked. This will reduce the spread.

In other news, Scotland just reached 49% double-vaxxed, and their highest rates of both covid infection and hospitalisations to date.

(2,000 new infections are directly linked to superspreader soccer parties, 2/3 of those being males who travelled to London for them.)

the majority of people who are double-vaxed in the UK are older people. most people under 40 will only have had 1. and it it's astra which is mid

if cases in the UK keep growing at the current rate they will have the most cases they've ever had in any single day just before lift all restrictions (july 19).

the next two wembley matches are going to be even bigger, by design. like, why?

in order to "let it rip through" the population so that "bodies pile high in their thousands" iirc

Never change Australia pic.twitter.com/UcSAai2lNG

— Ian Makgill (@ianmakgill) June 28, 2021

Have started feeling weird vibes wearing a mask in various places - not quite hitting "what's wrong with you asshole" looks yet.

The UK now has more daily cases than the entire EU. pic.twitter.com/TH6udUkyYe

— Steve Lawrence (@SteveLawrence_) June 30, 2021

Plague Island’s stadium-packing policy is bad but wasn’t it the case last wave that the eu were just a month behind uk?

six times the population of the UK but with less cases still is pretty shocking even if mainland Europe are a bit behind the curve

Not to worry, FREEDOM DAY is nigh.

What are the concurrent UK hospitalizations and deaths? That data seems like an important piece of the big picture.

Delta variant watch in the UK and Israel
UK—99% Delta, significant spike in cases, relatively small increase in hospitalizations/deaths
Israel—45% Delta, small spike in cases by absolute N, Today: no change (290), 0 deaths again; little rise in hospitalizations, none in deaths pic.twitter.com/ZxQajmX3HR

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) June 30, 2021

Have started feeling weird vibes wearing a mask in various places - not quite hitting "what's wrong with you asshole" looks yet.

― Joe Bombin (milo z), Thursday, July 1, 2021 3:21 AM (eight hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Yeah, in the last week the scales have tipped around here to the point where it's probably at least 75% of people not wearing masks in stores.

I was having a conversation with one of my regular supermarket cashiers the other day. She was asking after my in-laws, since I had been doing shopping for them last year in addition to my own shopping. I told her that they had discovered instacart or whatever, but they could get their own groceries since they're vaccinated now. Her reply was something like "Oh, not me." or "Oh, that's not for me." I didn't press further, but it was still a dispiriting moment. She's been one of my cashiers for years and we always shoot the shit. Still wearing a mask, which is interesting because some of the employees at that grocery store no longer wear masks and some do. I have no idea what their internal criteria for mask-wearing is.

I mentioned in this or some other thread, but I was reminded by a couple of cashiers that there are lots of reasons a grocery store employee might continue to wear a mask despite lack of an enforced mandate. They could have small kids at home, they could have someone immunocompromised in their life, they could themselves be only partially vaxxed or with someone partially vaxxed. Etc. Heck, they could be aware that a hunk of the unmasked staff is also unvaxxed.

still been seeing masks on most people indoors and not actively eating in Seattle but the requirement to do so is officially over as of a day or two ago. I will be wearing a mask in public indoor areas indefinitely.

Illinois starting to see the uptick in cases as well, week over week change in 7-day rolling average is up 32.3%. We bottomed out at right around 245-250 new cases per day for a few weeks, but 457 new cases today. Not terrible considering where we were two months ago, but disappointing to see. Unsurprisingly, a lot of the new cases are from the south part of the state bordering Missouri, which is doing terribly.

Counterpoint: they are doing awesome, because they don't have to wear a mask. Get your priorities straight, sheeple! Better dead than mask-ed!

I stopped in my favorite Little Village liquor store today and asked how they were doing. They said things are slowly getting back to normal, but that the store still has a mask requirement and that they've been getting a lot of people refusing, which has been trying for them. I bet.

Very good timing for the best US vaccinations in many weeks. Over 1.6 million shots with >660,000 newbies reported today. 👍
Maybe awareness of Delta is helping people get on board to build the immunity wall we need right now pic.twitter.com/frn4XLjO1j

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 1, 2021

(I don't quite share his optimism but)

Because people everywhere instinctively reduce complexity into binaries, the fact that the pandemic has receded from the level of catastrophic public health crisis down to the level of critical public health threat, is automatically translated as "whew! the pandemic is over". Here in the USA it's as predictable as sunrise that the Delta variant coupled with insufficient vaccination rates will add another 50,000 to 75,000 dead to the toll before the year is over. And I can't think of any viable path forward that will avoid that. People are very bad at assessing risk from sources that they have no immediate experience with.

the only path forward is to get more aggressive with vaccinations

more aggressiv? like, tackle people and hold them down while a burly nurse injects them?

Miami-Dade County has moved into 66% full vaccinations, a very good thing.

I spoke too soon: 68%!

The big problem is that the higher R(0) of Delta has increased the threshold for herd immunity enough that the goal jumped further away even while progress toward it was slowing down.

xpost re getting more aggressive - I mean, for a start it would be nice if organizations/companies/entities would quit half-assing requirements around vaccinations. One specific example that continues to annoy me is how many universities/colleges are requiring students to be vaccinated but won't extend the requirement to staff and faculty. Yes, I realize that unions and collective bargaining agreements at some of these institutions make this harder to do, but I'm aware of several local examples of institutions where this isn't an issue at all and they started out by requiring them of all employees only to instantly crumple and withdraw the requirement at the first sign of grumbling.

herd immunity was probably not attainable for the US even beforehand, in this country at least given that it requires somewhere between 70-85% innoculation as an estimate. it could have been if we had less assholes living here and had vaccination not turned into a left/right issue but here we are.

xpost

UK has a fighting chance of getting there