Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

xpost Understandable. Some things it'll help to remember:

Vaccinated people are definitely going to catch the Delta variant. they also caught the Alpha variant. they also caught the original version of COVID. this isn't new, nor is there any study showing that significantly more vaccinated people are getting Delta, or that they're developing severe COVID at a higher rate (at least not yet). Likewise, there's a pretty good chance that those who get breakthrough infections may have a greatly reduced viral load (or be prevented from spreading it).

The reason it's a major threat is that there are tons of immunocompromised people who might not be benefitting from the vaccines the same way you or I do, who could be at greater risk of dying from it, and under 50% of our country is fully vaccinated (though getting closer), and it has the ability to spike in less vaccinated areas, overwhelming hospitals, bringing death with it, and not just of unvaccinated people.

also, people fundamentally misunderstand what 'vaccine effectiveness' is, which is where I think a lot of the panic comes from. I'll go over in another post.

So I think many folks have misinterpreted the 88% effectiveness of Pfizer against the Delta variant to mean 12% of people who get vaccinated will still get COVID-19. Not what it means - these vaccines wouldn't be seen as a modern miracle if it did. It means the risk is reduced 88% for vaccinated people.

It's calculated as follows:
First, we calculate the Risk Ratio. To do this, we need to calculate the attack rate for both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, meaning the percent of vaccinated/unvaccinated people in the study who became infected.

For example:
If I have 2000 vaccinated people and 2000 unvaccinated people in my study. Let's say 50 of the vaccinated people get COVID, and 400 unvaccinated people get it.

50/2000 = .025 or 2.5% attack rate for the vaccinated
400/2000 = .2, or 20% attack rate for the unvaccinated.

Risk ratio = 20/2.5 = 8, which means you are 8 times more likely to get COVID if you are unvaccinated than if you are vaccinated

Now, to calculate the effectiveness (assuming this is a real world study):

You take the attack rate for the unvaccinated, subtract the attack rate for the vaccinated, and divide that total by the attack rate for the unvaccinated.

So...
(20 - 2.5)/20
17.5/20 = 87.5%

This means the vaccinated group experienced 87.5% fewer cases than the unvaccinated group. Notice how the vaccinated group didn't have 12.5% of its participants catch COVID - the percent was far lower (2.5%). The real percentage is likely far lower than that - I just made up numbers to make a point.

Sources: https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section5.html, https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section6.html

(not referring to anybody HERE, mind u, this is more "my FB feed/people I know"

xpost - Yeah, I left off another few sentences about how tweets like that kind of prove that the vaccines are, in fact, doing their job nicely. I mean, if you only get sick for a day or two and don't end up in the hospital, that's a win, thanks to the vaccine!

Our state is doing pretty good, our local city even better (far better, I'm seeing some reports of over 87% vaccinated in our city), which is great. But, yeah, with an unvaccinated kid, I'm still nervous.

definitely understandable. I have a friend who is immunocompromised AND has three unvaxxed little ones. the concern is real and palpable

Although the section of MI where rich people from Chicago go is heavily Calvinist Dutch influenced so it wouldn't surprise me if there was a lower vax rate there.

― underminer of twenty years of excellent contribution to this borad (dan m), Monday, June 28, 2021 2:50 AM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Vax rates in West MI seem to track with financial & educational privilege and/or urban areas? The counties containing Grand Rapids, Grand Haven, Kzoo, are 60%+; the lakeshore counties with tourism industries are around 50%; and the more rural interior counties are in the 40% range. All up and down the state.

Data from https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98178_103214-547150--,00.html

I would guess there's some political affiliation mapping over this but not entirely, as some of those areas lean hard right. They still got vaccinated because they're educated white ppl and they know how science works despite being Culture Warriors who purposefully mislead their followers.

I was in ... Vandalia?

thank you for that link, Alfred. seems like she's saying the "mRNA only 33% effective against Delta variant after one dose" was misleading because it was taken over the first two weeks post-shot, whereas it was closer to 80% after two weeks after first dose.

the HANDS FACE SPACE roadsign at the park gates gets keeps getting put face-down by naysayers.

wembley doesn't look very socially distanced...

I go back to work hosting karaoke this weekend at a local bar and the woman they hired to be the new cocktail waitress is proudly telling everyone how she is not vaccinated and thinks vaccines are bad. I’m very vulnerable to infection and have a zillion reasons to not even do the job but I’m going to do it and I’m gonna tell her directly to not get within ten feet of me until she gets a shot and waits a few weeks

Wtf is wrong with these assholes

They are assholes.

I mean, that's just how assholes are iirc.

Vandalia = Cass County = under 37%.

I’ve never had to tell a coworker to fuck off outta my face but that’s the situation. Don’t feel good about it!

Would you get a load of this.
Col from Blacksmiths emailed me today to let me know he’d contacted both Scott Morrison and Gladys Berejiklian’s respective offices to ask why it’s taking so long to rollout the Pfizer vaccine in our region. pic.twitter.com/o2zdpg9nXF

— Geoff Pearson (@GCobber99) June 29, 2021

Wow! The Australian government has created a perpetual motion machine!

Morrison is a perpetual inaction machine

Today has been a continuous stream of press conferences where premiers, CHOs and ministers should at each other.

Los Angeles County public health authorities are urging unvaccinated and vaccinated people alike to don masks again inside restaurants, stores and other public indoor spaces because of the growing threat posed by the more contagious delta variant of the novel coronavirus.

The high-profile move by the county of 10 million marks an abrupt shift in tone after states and localities have dropped most mask mandates and social distancing requirements in recent weeks. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in mid-May rescinded almost all masking recommendations for fully vaccinated people.

But the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health cited a growing share of new cases linked to the delta variant, which was first detected during India’s catastrophic surge of infections and has upended reopening plans across the globe, in “strongly recommending” a return to masking. Los Angeles dropped its mask mandate for vaccinated people with the rest of California on June 15, with limited exceptions for public transportation, hospitals and schools.

County health officials said 123 people were infected with the delta variant from June 4 to 18. Ten were fully vaccinated, and none of those people needed hospital care. Three people infected with delta were partially vaccinated, and 110 were not vaccinated; two people were hospitalized.

“Fully vaccinated people are well protected against serious illness and disease caused by variants of concern including the Delta variant,” Barbara Ferrer, the county’s public health director, said in a statement.

Etc. I'm beginning to think unvaccinated people should get vaccinated, but we probably need more data.

Their messaging is shit.

It's kind of a running theme.

“Fully vaccinated people are well protected against serious illness and disease caused by variants of concern including the Delta variant,”

OK...so why recommend masking? It's not like anti-jabbers will get worse, but this is the kind of muddle which makes Thanksgiving dinner conversations a delight.

I'd guess that the 'serious' in 'serious illness and disease' is carrying a lot of the weight there.

Call me crazy, but I'd like to avoid even an unserious case of COVID if I can.

OK...so why recommend masking?

I'm guessing because the messaging has become so shit around masks since the CDC effectively told everyone "hey y'all, masks off!" a few months back.

Going “fuck it, mask off” gave cover for covidiots to stop masking despite not being vaccinated. These are the people who are mostly contracting and spreading the virus. If everybody wears masks, the spread will be reduced.

Well, by default, because I think you mean "if everyone *unvaccinated* wears masks, the spread will be reduced," because it's not the vaxxed that are spreading it. And of course if everyone just wears a mask that covers all bases, but ironically it's the vaccinated that are probably more likely to wear a mask again, not the unvaxxed.

The (WaPo) article goes on to say "Los Angeles officials are also concerned by reports of some fully vaccinated people contracting cases of the delta variant in Israel and want to learn more about the variant and how it spreads." Whatever that means.

right, persuading vaxxed people to mask up again seems like a drop in the ocean vs unvaccinated people who just dngaf

xpost it means 6 months into vaccines, local officials still don't understand the concept of 'breakthrough infections'.

like obviously, there is a threshold of 'breakthrough infections' that suggests your vaccine doesn't actually work (like possibly Sinovac), but....that's not what's happened in Israel. yes, 50% of the new infections were vaccinated people, but it was a really small sample size to begin with, and that just means half of the breakthrough infections were from people who were vaxxed, not that 50% of vaccinated will be at risk for getting it.

it's worth studying and is already being studied by the WHO, CDC, Fauci, the NIH, etc, but constantly spreading news of "someone who got vaccinated got infected" as if it's mind-blowing, unexpected news continues to cause confusion on how vaccines work and their effectiveness, which doesn't help convince people to get vaccinated.

Israel has a very high vaccination rate, as that rate goes up, the % of new cases that hit vaccinated people also goes up, and that's a good thing.

Fewer living Netanyahu supporters?

at some point, 100% of new cases will be with vaccinated people, but that means everyone is vaccinated and there are very few new cases

current theory for US, at least: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/covid-delta-variant-us-unlikely-to-have-another-raging-epidemic-gottlieb-says.html

which doesn't mean that we won't see increases nationally or in undervaxxed areas and possibly increases in hospitalizations/deaths in these areas, but that the protection should blunt the rise.

but, as with all things COVID, this is far from a certainty.

no one under 12 is vaccinated yet right? I understand there are reasons to be less concerned about that population, but still

that's correct, I think there are trials for younger people but nobody below 12 actively getting jabs.

I *think* China approved Sinovac for kids 3-17, though I have no idea if they are administering it. I think Russia has a nasal spray being readied for kids 8-12. And yeah, Pfizer and Moderna are testing on kids as young as 6 months, iirc. But really, none of these vaccines have been given full FDA approval yet, and all of them are operating under emergency rules, so I assume vax for kids under 12 will arrive sooner rather than later.

the LAPH mask recommendation is weird. i don't think it's good science for vaccinated people to mask. to the extent this recommendation encourages unvaxxed people to wear masks (a little bit, maaaaaybe?) it miiiiight be good public health for a local population that is generally pretty sympathetic to public health. the problem here is not white trump voters. it's people who don't have time/access to information about vaccination. and it might help encourage those people to go back to masking if everyone is masking again.

the reason they're doing it now is that cases are just starting to tick up here, and positivity rate is going up pretty quickly (which is usually what comes first). the fact that this is even happening in a region where like 1/3 of people have some natural immunity after the brutal winter and has now pretty high vaccine rates is ... not a good sign.

Well, by default, because I think you mean "if everyone *unvaccinated* wears masks, the spread will be reduced,"

I do not: "the unvaccinated" is a subset and byproduct of "everyone."

because it's not the vaxxed that are spreading it. And of course if everyone just wears a mask that covers all bases, but ironically it's the vaccinated that are probably more likely to wear a mask again, not the unvaxxed.

Then business owners will know who to refuse access to, and people will know which randos to steer clear of in the street, and not be forced to share indoor spaces with unvaccinated ppl, and more unvaccinated will feel social pressure to return to being masked. This will reduce the spread.

In other news, Scotland just reached 49% double-vaxxed, and their highest rates of both covid infection and hospitalisations to date.

(2,000 new infections are directly linked to superspreader soccer parties, 2/3 of those being males who travelled to London for them.)

the majority of people who are double-vaxed in the UK are older people. most people under 40 will only have had 1. and it it's astra which is mid

if cases in the UK keep growing at the current rate they will have the most cases they've ever had in any single day just before lift all restrictions (july 19).

the next two wembley matches are going to be even bigger, by design. like, why?

in order to "let it rip through" the population so that "bodies pile high in their thousands" iirc

Never change Australia pic.twitter.com/UcSAai2lNG

— Ian Makgill (@ianmakgill) June 28, 2021

Have started feeling weird vibes wearing a mask in various places - not quite hitting "what's wrong with you asshole" looks yet.

The UK now has more daily cases than the entire EU. pic.twitter.com/TH6udUkyYe

— Steve Lawrence (@SteveLawrence_) June 30, 2021

Plague Island’s stadium-packing policy is bad but wasn’t it the case last wave that the eu were just a month behind uk?

six times the population of the UK but with less cases still is pretty shocking even if mainland Europe are a bit behind the curve

Not to worry, FREEDOM DAY is nigh.

What are the concurrent UK hospitalizations and deaths? That data seems like an important piece of the big picture.