Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

probably because of the theory that we reached our inflection point, like the UK and Israel, combined with the evolving science.

The CDC mask guidance switched too fast without enough explanation and overlooks key sociological factors for indoor mask mandates—especially to protect workers and the immunocompromised. Better to have announced benchmarks—and kept it up just a bit more. https://t.co/soi3jsD1rT pic.twitter.com/wedLXzHlwr

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) May 14, 2021

correct.

put another way ...

Really builds confidence how the CDC went from "vaccinated people may meet in outdoor groups of three for quiet study" to throwing beads out of the CDC Party Bus in the space of about a week

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) May 13, 2021

Basically

It just makes it seem like they’re making stuff up!

literally what everyone does afaict

it's not! you've all learned such low expectations for competence in this country. snap out of it!

What good do higher expectations do

Idk I’m just going to keep behaving exactly the same as I have for a year other than having vaccinated friends visit

We’ll see if things are better or worse in September

the CDC regularly and publicly either lying or screwing up isn't the worst thing that happened during this pandemic, and them doing a better job may not have made that much difference in terms of the progression of the pandemic, but every time it happens it makes me thing of a tweet i saw right at the start of things that said sth like:

"one effect of COVID will people become like they are in mexico and russia: no expectation that govt. works or tells the truth, and we start to act accordingly"

uhhhhh this was supposed to be my safe space for political handwringing that has nothing to do with the collapse of American democracy

Better to have announced benchmarks—and kept it up just a bit more.

True. But the pony's out of the barn already and however justified this criticism is, this comes too late in the day to be useful or constructive criticism. What's needed now are suggestions for how to restructure CDC so that the future decision making process produces better decisions. It's not like they don't have access to enough good thinking.

well, this is just a message board, but saying we shouldn't talk about past mistakes so we can focus on making sure past mistakes don't happen again seems weird.

in the UK they are talking about moving the over 50s from a 12 week wait between jabs to 8 weeks, which would mean mine is due about now. but I've already got a date for the second because you had to book them both together.

i guess they'll text if they want me.

The core decision to allow the fully vaccinated to omit masks in many more situations was not especially bad or a mistake. It was supported by the data. It is easy for me to believe (upon no stronger evidence than just how it looks to me) that once the CDC told the administration that the data supported making the change, the speed at which it was pushed out to the public was decided more by politics than careful crafting for the optimal public health outcome. God knows, any president managing a nationwide crisis loves to deliver good news. It bumps up their approval.

It is easy for me to believe (upon no stronger evidence than just how it looks to me)

new board description!

just practicing full disclosure

There will never be a new board description until after "and what" comes back

Those who are well trained in their employment are now free to purchase and use explosives to their heart's content. Note: those who are not schooled should continue to refrain from blowing things up. We have no mechanism to restrain you but we trust that you won't take advantage of our honor system. We made a pretty sign and everything.

World in Data's 7-day average of daily COVID cases in the US as of today, May 14th, is 35,066, which is the lowest it is been since June 24th of last year.

the 7-day average has consistently been declining each Friday by around 8,800 - 9,000 cases/week from the week before, going back to April 16th.

7-day death average is 626, lowest since July 8th of last year. and I would be surprised if it doesn't dip lower since it's a trailing stat.

some positives. want to look at NY Times's data and see if it says about the same, as it's usually pretty similar trajectory with slightly different numbers.

Trader Joe's, Costco and Walmart are dropping their their mask requirements today

just too fast

curbside pickup orders about to skyyyrocket at Walmart

Was planning to return to grocery shopping once my vaccination was complete (been Instacarting for the past year) but I guess not now.

We're still at like 700+ new infections/day in Cook County. The numbers are declining slowly but...goddamn it, it's too fucken soon to start acting like it's all over and done. And for the record, I'm mostly not worried about myself, but I got my first jab on the very first day that jabs were opened to everyone 16+ in IL and I'm only free + clear as of Monday. There's a whole lotta unvaccinated and partially vaccinated people that are gonna get powerfucked by this shit. It's just irresponsible the way the CDC announced this imo.

From Walmart's website:

Beginning today, vaccinated customers and members are welcome to shop without a mask, and we will continue to request that non-vaccinated customers and members wear face coverings in our stores and clubs. We will update the signage in our facilities to reflect this.

This is so stupid

I have a hat that i will happily eat for all of u if cases don't spike hard in 2-3 weeks' time.

It could easily happen that cases don't spike hard in 2-3 weeks' time. I would assume that's what CDC sees as most likely.

Not clear to me they're wrong. The argument: people who are vaccine refusers are very likely ALREADY mixing and spreading the virus. The fact that they can now pretend to be vaxxed and shop unmasked at Walmart will increase transmission some, but *maybe not that much* and not enough to break out of the exponential decline that those of us who got vaccinated have put us in.

BUT:

I am still pretty flummoxed by the timing. They could have done this a month from now at which point I will feel much more like "the people who want vaxx have got vaxx." right now that's just not true. Maybe mostly true. But not true. So why not wait?

Blood for the blood god

Walmart, at least, has not been seriously enforcing their mask requirement for almost a year. Trader Joe's and Costco, they've been more strict, so I guess it's a bit more surprising.

well, it's mostly true in the strict sense of the word, but there's a big chunk of people trying to get vaccinated, and they're (of course) the groups most likely now to be involuntarily in the presence of unmasked people because of their jobs.

for example:

https://i.imgur.com/5mZ3O9c.png

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-access-information-experiences-hispanic-adults/

that's an xp to eephus

cases can't possibly spike in 2-3 weeks time from THIS, there's a whole incubation period and testing turnaround timing.

besides, it's not like unvaccinated people who hate masking are going to start de-masking for the first time NOW. they've already been doing it. there are already entire bars in more red areas of Florida where people pile in, free-nosing it, and who knows if half of them are vaccinated. I know we aren't the only place when this is happening. there are lots of places across the country where you'd never know a pandemic was going on, and I'm not talking like spread out areas like North Dakota!

Experts seem to think we've reached an inflection point, where cases steadily drop. It makes sense - cases this week declined 26% from last week. The national average just a little over a month ago was 71,000 cases a day, as of today, they're a little over 35,000 a day. and the average drops by about 9000 each week, and has for the last month.

I'm not saying we can't see things go in the other direction at some point (and frankly, even the CDC acknowledged that and said they'll bring back mask procedures then), but while I understand the concerns for how they did this, the fact that we managed to stop a surge and send it sharply in the other direction despite scores of conservative Governors basically saying COVID'S OVER and suspending all of their state mask mandates, guidelines, etc around the same time period shows we're not playing the same ballgame we were a year ago.

that said, these stores are really stupid for this policy

What good do higher expectations do

― Clara Lemlich stan account (silby), Friday, May 14, 2021 4:38 PM (six hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Keep ppl alive ydf

xp what are stores supposed to do instead? they no longer have support from the federal government for their policy.

Stores are still allowed to set their own policies. The Sinclair news here spent hoooours warning ppl that they could still be required to wear masks in businesses (after local restrictions lift June 30th).

i'm saying stores that abandon mask policies outright as a result of this are dumb, the majority of vaccinated people I know are already saying they're not giving up their mask so they're not gonna be the ones (for the most part) strong-arming and bullying employees at the front door. it's going to be the people who were already doing that anyway.

and I'd argue the CDC was hindered by the sheer volume of state Governors/legislatures and local officials who began removing or weakening mask mandates several months ago. They (and Fauci) were very vocal about the foolishness of this, which is why Walensky issued that ominous warning in March about the fourth surge. If the state has a mask mandate in public places like stores, stores don't have to set their own policy - and it helps if fines are instituted for violating them, even though I know that wasn't happening.

State and local officials actually have the ability to govern their populations to a degree, the CDC do not - they issue guidelines (and their moratorium on evictions/foreclosures was already struck down by a federal judge as exceeding their authority). I've already seen (and been a victim of) harassment for wearing a mask long before the CDC made their statement due to state and local officials removing their mask mandates. I've seen people here in local stores like Publix that usually have no customers without them start to have people openly flout the store's rules.

is the CDC going to make it that much worse? the CDC specified vaccinated people didnt have to mask, many of these states outright said "nobody has to". States and stores still have the right to set their own policies, and they should keep their mask policies in place because nobody should expect these stores to be the vaccine police.

I just don't see how two months later, the reaction wouldn't be the same. even if the CDC did take the time to craft milestones in advance that needed to be reached, and then once met, changed the guideline - yes, things would have been less jarring, but I don't believe for a second that we wouldn't still be hearing "it's not the right time for this, it's too soon!" or "how are stores supposed to determine who is vaccinated" quandary?

it's basically distressing at this point I feel suffocated doing anything now because my anxiety brain is a never-ending ping-pong match of what is and isn't appropriate, and regardless of messaging, it's pretty clear that a pretty huge chunk of the population that considers themselves 'responsible' about this pandemic is essentially going rogue now and only supporting the 'science' when it doesn't contradict what they already believe. They don't mind supporting the CDC when Walensky was begging people to buckle down when it looked like cases might explode off the deep end in April (and her concern at the time was warranted!). It's just a ton of overwhelming noise, and I'm just glad my anxiety's been pretty good and under control the last three days cos otherwise ...fuck.

I did read a good article from a physician today who shared his concerns about the CDC pivot and they were well-stated and clear (and included a few things I hadn't thought of). I'd much rather hear that from an expert than the one-dimensional brayings from every hive mind who doesn't know what the fuck they're talking about and wants to opine anyway about how the world has ended, which has basically been the last day and a half (not talking about here, mind you, but everywhere else I've turned has been toxic af, to where I just disconnected for a while).

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/have-we-reached-a-vaccination-tipping-point-for-covid-19

i'm saying stores that abandon mask policies outright as a result of this are dumb

You seem to be saying the CDC a right but anyone who works in a customer facing role who follows their advice is dumb.

I would pay everyone who works a customer facing service job to quit but I can only afford that a few times personally

The CDC might be right about the science but they’ve now made life more dangerous for a few people I know and more anxious for many of the rest, it seems crazy to tell people they can totally chill now when cases are still higher than they were last summer, which was considered at the time to be “bad”

Not to mention all the kidding on the square conspiratorial thinking about Biden needing to distract from Israel or get the economy moving again or whatever

at least he's still actively importing new cases and variants

If you keep the mask requirement then you are going to have to argue with lots more people now.

This is why I brought up Walmart, who afaict started out with a strict mask mandate but then soon determined they didn't have the power to enforce it in the (literal) face of their aggressive customers. Trader Joe's and Costco, though, they were almost religious about it, and in fact a lot of those viral (hah) videos of anti-maskers came from them specifically. Clearly, if they did indeed officially announce a change of policy, someone like Trader Joe's didn't really *need* to, since they'd been pretty successful self-policing. But I had just heard last week or so that they were transitioning out the elderly/vulnerable shopping hours, anyway, so I guess even before this announcement they were ready to move on. I do wonder (as a regular TJs and Costco shopper) if the mask rule hurt them at all. I would guess ... not. Which maybe is why I'm so surprised they're so fast out of the gate to revert, but just as I still see plenty of solo people outside wearing masks, I'm sure I will see plenty of people still wearing masks inside.

I do wish the CDC was a little more forthcoming about specific metrics, because even if I'm personally optimistic about their decision, if they had been a bit more specific in advance then they would have better justification for changing policy back, if they had to, like our state had in the past threatened to do (but never followed through with). Still, watching how quickly concerts, events, restaurants et al. are ramping up here, I think this state was pretty done with over-precaution as well, so I can only imagine how impossible it would be to put the cat back in the bag no matter what in the states that did not gaf months ago.

Thing is, this goes beyond just “clarifying mask guidance” at the heart of it. From the start, even as the CDC had to shift around and change up the messaging with new developments (for right and for wrong), mask wearing and social distancing have been drilled in as the two things average folks can do to stop the spread. This new guidance effectively waves a big red “COVIDs over folks, go back to normal” flag, which… it’s not. It’s trending in an incredibly positive direction and things are looking up, but even just a month longer on this would make so much more sense.

I’m not arguing that the science is “wrong” or that we wouldn’t have gotten here anyway in a month or two, but this will change the behaviors of a lot more than just the fully vaccinated and I’m still convinced it was too much, too soon.

At least we still have hand washing.

Fuck washing a hand.

Oh, you must be one of those anti-bathers.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/e/e1/PigPen_%28Peanuts%29.png/220px-PigPen_%28Peanuts%29.png

"Free your minds, sheeple!"