Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

I am definitely not here to say what level of comfort other folks should feel or attack people for being anxious. and moreso i'm tired of seeing other people doing that to people or to me ("why are you wearing a mask?!!! you're vaccinated!!!").

but a few things I wanted to mention...

The CDC began forecasting the next few months of COVID cases several months ago, and they expected the increase in cases that started in late March to continue and surge through May, with cases beginning to decline in July. Instead, cases began declining again as vaccination increases, and sharply - cases have been cut by more than half in the last month. Hospitalizations have decreased sharply in the last two weeks (almost 20%), deaths are also dropping but since it's a trailing stat, not as quickly yet. the infection rate hit an all-time pandemic low for the US earlier this week. This is happening despite all of the states that decided to declare victory and remove many or all of their measures.

The worry about variants is valid, but one thing about the studies on how vaccines react to the variant is many of these studies are lab studies that singularly focus on the ability of the variant to 'escape' antibodies, and antibodies are only one component of a body's immune response. it doesn't necessarily mean a person with that vaccine would be guaranteed to have zero or even significantly reduced protection due to other elements of immune response like T cells, and the fact that the understanding of what an 'effective' level of antibodies is against the virus is poorly understood. That's why the different public health institutes have wisely erred on the side of caution - because of all we don't know. But some of my peers are reacting as if it's a foregone conclusion that you're a sitting duck with any/all variants, when it's probably more like 'you're protected, just less than against original recipe COVID".

If infections are indeed being blocked in the 90% range with mRNA vaccines and transmission for those who suffer a breakthrough infection is significiantly reduced, this significantly handicaps how many people the virus could be spread to, even in a crowd where there is heavy exposure. Which in the past, was almost guaranteed to result in a super-spreader event. And if it's truly reducing the severity of the disease to where far fewer suffer severe disease, get hospitalized, or die, that's a really good indicator we're getting to the other side. These numbers aren't going to be zero as no vaccine offers 100% protection, and we're probably not going to get cases/deaths/hospitalizations to zero. The idea is to get as close to it as we can.

everybody should determine their own comfort level with things and it's not my or anybody's place to tell someone their fears are irrational or accost them for being hesitant. but the opposite applies too. I'm really not the fuck about idiots like the friend of a friend last night who chastised any vaccinated person who had any idea of changing their behavior, as well as Dr Walensky, as being a "moron who failed middle school science" (this person was a photographer who also conflated antibiotic resistance with viral variants). Lots of "trust the science folk" because "fuck the science" folk last night. they're just one level above the assholes I used to see saying "IGNORE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIKE'S WEATHER PAGE IS THE REAL EXPERT ON WHERE THIS HURRICANE WILL GO".

the CDC has had a messaging problem from the get, but it has improved (with some continued stumbles) in the Walensky regime, and she was the Chief of Infectious Diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital the last 3 years, and was on the front lines during the pandemic last year. I trust her way more than the Trump loyalist stooge that believes the virus was created in a lab. and she's had people squeezing her to lift mask mandates since like February or March,and she pushed back repeatedly, even drawing criticism from ex-CDC directors for being too cautious. Her announcement was met with approval from former acting CDC director Richard Besser, Michael Osterholm (director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota), and Dr. Amesh Adalja (infectious disease physician with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security). so I very much trust her, and I worry about the growing number of people peer pressuring their friends to ignore the guidance of the CDC and listen to....who, exactly? Them, the non-expert? I sure as hell am not taking public health cues from a photographer.

some of us will be anxious and hesitant to change our behavior based on the new guidelines, some will not - for a variety of reasons. that's fine. I don't find it appropriate for either side to police each other (which isnt happening here, but is happening like hotcakes across my entire social circle)

I also don't disagree with the Dr Julia Marcus thread because the logistical logjams that will emerge aren't a great thing. but there is no shortage of amateur wannabe epidemiologists saying "THE SCIENCE IS ROOOOOONG" since late last night and I'm sick of that shit.

part of the problem, though, is something the CDC can't control, which was having no national strategy/coordination for a year, and having wildly varying standards by states. Governors obliterating mask mandates in March, etc. CDC now being forced to play Tetris with logistical logjams they didn't technically create but now have to solve.

Booming post.

On a much less serious end of things, apparently even the Jehovah's Witness folks had to adapt. Got a two page hand-written letter from them pushing their website, over half of it is about how unfortunate it is that they can't speak to me in person due to COVID.

haha!

can they Zoom knock on your door

I dunno I kinda liked being able to answer the door wearing a Slayer shirt.

Come and Zoom knock on our door... (Come and Zoom knock on our door) ...
We've been Zoom waiting for you.... (We've been Zoom waiting for you) ...

i answered wearing a Bad Religion crossbusters shirt once, that made for an interesting convo

Meantime, worth a read

As many scientists predicted, B.1.1.7 became the predominant version of the virus in the U.S., now accounting for nearly three-quarters of all cases. But the surge experts had feared ended up a mere blip in most of the country. How did we dodge that fate?https://t.co/2t5jF51CqX

— Apoorva Mandavilli (@apoorva_nyc) May 14, 2021

i answered wearing a Bad Religion crossbusters shirt once, that made for an interesting convo

That would work too. My favorite Bad Religion story was when I wore one of their shirts home from my freshman year in college and my mom goes, "oh I love Bad Religion, that was our drinking 8-track back in high school".

Yes, she was thinking about Bad Company.

Same dif

Yes I think it's bad when people to get sick and die even if their own choices brought it on. I don't tell people dying of lung cancer "Fuck you, you smoked cigarettes for years, this is on you."

Walking to a location hours after the announcement yesterday, this reporter noted a 500% increase in chinstrapping, and a 1000% increase in public smoking.

so that article posted earlier mentioned the slowing of vaccination seems to have stopped, which was true this week until the end of this week. Yesterday and today were significantly lower than they were a week ago. last Thursday and Friday brought vaccination totals well above 2 million (Friday even closer to 3 million), this week both were close to 2 million but just under it.

any feasible real world explanation other than maybe there's further slowing or that numbers are just going to fluctuate since demand is lower now?

obviously I don't think we've seen much of a bounce from the 12-15 approval yet, but i wouldn't expect that this quickly anyway

Over here Monica Gandhi's saying the state and city should remove the mandate; she's been consistently bullish on the vaccines' impact so not surprising:

https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/2021-05-California-mask-mandate-CDC-vaccinated-new-16177861.php

probably because of the theory that we reached our inflection point, like the UK and Israel, combined with the evolving science.

The CDC mask guidance switched too fast without enough explanation and overlooks key sociological factors for indoor mask mandates—especially to protect workers and the immunocompromised. Better to have announced benchmarks—and kept it up just a bit more. https://t.co/soi3jsD1rT pic.twitter.com/wedLXzHlwr

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) May 14, 2021

correct.

put another way ...

Really builds confidence how the CDC went from "vaccinated people may meet in outdoor groups of three for quiet study" to throwing beads out of the CDC Party Bus in the space of about a week

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) May 13, 2021

Basically

It just makes it seem like they’re making stuff up!

literally what everyone does afaict

it's not! you've all learned such low expectations for competence in this country. snap out of it!

What good do higher expectations do

Idk I’m just going to keep behaving exactly the same as I have for a year other than having vaccinated friends visit

We’ll see if things are better or worse in September

the CDC regularly and publicly either lying or screwing up isn't the worst thing that happened during this pandemic, and them doing a better job may not have made that much difference in terms of the progression of the pandemic, but every time it happens it makes me thing of a tweet i saw right at the start of things that said sth like:

"one effect of COVID will people become like they are in mexico and russia: no expectation that govt. works or tells the truth, and we start to act accordingly"

uhhhhh this was supposed to be my safe space for political handwringing that has nothing to do with the collapse of American democracy

Better to have announced benchmarks—and kept it up just a bit more.

True. But the pony's out of the barn already and however justified this criticism is, this comes too late in the day to be useful or constructive criticism. What's needed now are suggestions for how to restructure CDC so that the future decision making process produces better decisions. It's not like they don't have access to enough good thinking.

well, this is just a message board, but saying we shouldn't talk about past mistakes so we can focus on making sure past mistakes don't happen again seems weird.

in the UK they are talking about moving the over 50s from a 12 week wait between jabs to 8 weeks, which would mean mine is due about now. but I've already got a date for the second because you had to book them both together.

i guess they'll text if they want me.

The core decision to allow the fully vaccinated to omit masks in many more situations was not especially bad or a mistake. It was supported by the data. It is easy for me to believe (upon no stronger evidence than just how it looks to me) that once the CDC told the administration that the data supported making the change, the speed at which it was pushed out to the public was decided more by politics than careful crafting for the optimal public health outcome. God knows, any president managing a nationwide crisis loves to deliver good news. It bumps up their approval.

It is easy for me to believe (upon no stronger evidence than just how it looks to me)

new board description!

just practicing full disclosure

There will never be a new board description until after "and what" comes back

Those who are well trained in their employment are now free to purchase and use explosives to their heart's content. Note: those who are not schooled should continue to refrain from blowing things up. We have no mechanism to restrain you but we trust that you won't take advantage of our honor system. We made a pretty sign and everything.

World in Data's 7-day average of daily COVID cases in the US as of today, May 14th, is 35,066, which is the lowest it is been since June 24th of last year.

the 7-day average has consistently been declining each Friday by around 8,800 - 9,000 cases/week from the week before, going back to April 16th.

7-day death average is 626, lowest since July 8th of last year. and I would be surprised if it doesn't dip lower since it's a trailing stat.

some positives. want to look at NY Times's data and see if it says about the same, as it's usually pretty similar trajectory with slightly different numbers.

Trader Joe's, Costco and Walmart are dropping their their mask requirements today

just too fast

curbside pickup orders about to skyyyrocket at Walmart

Was planning to return to grocery shopping once my vaccination was complete (been Instacarting for the past year) but I guess not now.

We're still at like 700+ new infections/day in Cook County. The numbers are declining slowly but...goddamn it, it's too fucken soon to start acting like it's all over and done. And for the record, I'm mostly not worried about myself, but I got my first jab on the very first day that jabs were opened to everyone 16+ in IL and I'm only free + clear as of Monday. There's a whole lotta unvaccinated and partially vaccinated people that are gonna get powerfucked by this shit. It's just irresponsible the way the CDC announced this imo.

From Walmart's website:

Beginning today, vaccinated customers and members are welcome to shop without a mask, and we will continue to request that non-vaccinated customers and members wear face coverings in our stores and clubs. We will update the signage in our facilities to reflect this.

This is so stupid

I have a hat that i will happily eat for all of u if cases don't spike hard in 2-3 weeks' time.

It could easily happen that cases don't spike hard in 2-3 weeks' time. I would assume that's what CDC sees as most likely.

Not clear to me they're wrong. The argument: people who are vaccine refusers are very likely ALREADY mixing and spreading the virus. The fact that they can now pretend to be vaxxed and shop unmasked at Walmart will increase transmission some, but *maybe not that much* and not enough to break out of the exponential decline that those of us who got vaccinated have put us in.

BUT:

I am still pretty flummoxed by the timing. They could have done this a month from now at which point I will feel much more like "the people who want vaxx have got vaxx." right now that's just not true. Maybe mostly true. But not true. So why not wait?

Blood for the blood god

Walmart, at least, has not been seriously enforcing their mask requirement for almost a year. Trader Joe's and Costco, they've been more strict, so I guess it's a bit more surprising.

well, it's mostly true in the strict sense of the word, but there's a big chunk of people trying to get vaccinated, and they're (of course) the groups most likely now to be involuntarily in the presence of unmasked people because of their jobs.

for example:

https://i.imgur.com/5mZ3O9c.png

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-access-information-experiences-hispanic-adults/

that's an xp to eephus

cases can't possibly spike in 2-3 weeks time from THIS, there's a whole incubation period and testing turnaround timing.

besides, it's not like unvaccinated people who hate masking are going to start de-masking for the first time NOW. they've already been doing it. there are already entire bars in more red areas of Florida where people pile in, free-nosing it, and who knows if half of them are vaccinated. I know we aren't the only place when this is happening. there are lots of places across the country where you'd never know a pandemic was going on, and I'm not talking like spread out areas like North Dakota!

Experts seem to think we've reached an inflection point, where cases steadily drop. It makes sense - cases this week declined 26% from last week. The national average just a little over a month ago was 71,000 cases a day, as of today, they're a little over 35,000 a day. and the average drops by about 9000 each week, and has for the last month.

I'm not saying we can't see things go in the other direction at some point (and frankly, even the CDC acknowledged that and said they'll bring back mask procedures then), but while I understand the concerns for how they did this, the fact that we managed to stop a surge and send it sharply in the other direction despite scores of conservative Governors basically saying COVID'S OVER and suspending all of their state mask mandates, guidelines, etc around the same time period shows we're not playing the same ballgame we were a year ago.

that said, these stores are really stupid for this policy