Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

If you have children, I understand the anxiety of waiting until the next all-clear sign about vaccines. Otherwise, stop fucking worrying about a recalcitrant and sociopathic percentage of our population might do when they've been doing it already since March 2020.

My friends are more worried about getting sick despite vaccinations because of the caution-to-the-wind CDC messaging

Alfred, you've always been a calming presence in these threads and I totally understand the impetus behind that line of thinking, but it's not that simple just yet. There are people who still can't be vaccinated and this makes it even trickier for some to navigate. As much as I'd like to let the Trumpist refuseniks go on infecting themselves, I've got some very vulnerable kids in my immediate orbit that suffer from asthma and other underlying conditions that is going to make it hard to walk into a store not knowing who is actually vaccinated or not.

My friends are more worried about getting sick despite vaccinations because of the caution-to-the-wind CDC messaging

― Clara Lemlich stan account (silby)

They're good liberals. They read data.

I've got some very vulnerable kids in my immediate orbit that suffer from asthma and other underlying conditions that is going to make it hard to walk into a store not knowing who is actually vaccinated or not.

I totally get this. Hence why you should keep wearing masks. We know now that they do protect the user. And the big box stores still require them.

Maybe this is irrational, but I find that I can't just relax and assume that I'm not going to get sick/get my parents sick now that I'm fully vaccinated. Partly the threat of variants, partly because 95% isn't the same as 100%, partly because I had no physical reaction to my shots and I can't help wondering whether my immune system is really working. I just don't see myself going and hanging out in a coffee shop any time soon, and I was really hoping we would eventually get the numbers down to the point where I would feel safe doing things like that. This news makes that seem less likely to happen.

I mean, don't get me wrong, this is overall an incredibly good sign about the direction we are heading, but I don't think it's doomposting to say that it does make things more tricky for certain folks to navigate than it was 48 hours ago.

I can't help wondering whether my immune system is really working

uhhh maybe i don't know what i'm talking about but my doctor tested me for antibodies two weeks after my second vaxx appointment and they're... there i think? anyway this could be option

an option*

I had no physical reaction to my shots and I can't help wondering whether my immune system is really working.

I didn't either. Thankfully, this notion has been put to rest.

They don't wanna get jabbed? Fuck'em.

I just can't see it this way. Yes I think it's bad when people to get sick and die even if their own choices brought it on. I don't tell people dying of lung cancer "Fuck you, you smoked cigarettes for years, this is on you."

This is not an argument against the CDC guidelines being what they are but it is an argument for Target saying "we are not going to check customers' vaccination status so wear your mask in our store"

but it is an argument for Target saying "we are not going to check customers' vaccination status so wear your mask in our store"

Fortunately this sounds like the case so far, which is great. But I've heard anecdotal reports that a few regional grocery chains have replaced signage that reads "masks are recommended" instead of "mandatory".

Target did say that!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/05/14/masks-retail-stores-covid/

Right now, it's still the best strategy to make vaccination supremely easy and as attractive as possible. It might even help if they pushed the idea that vaccination is patriotic, since rational arguments don't seem to budge the recalcitrant. Getting tough and enforcing mandatory vaccination in order to get to herd immunity can be put in the wait-and-see pile for now.

Oh, I know the shots work even if you haven't had a reaction. It's just a personal anxiety thing; I would feel more at ease in crowded indoor spaces if I had actually felt my immune system kicking in.

Didn't mean to sound like a vaccine skeptic, because I'm not.

I just can't see it this way. Yes I think it's bad when people to get sick and die even if their own choices brought it on. I don't tell people dying of lung cancer "Fuck you, you smoked cigarettes for years, this is on you."

The cancer patient doesn't infect other people with a potentially fatal virus for which we at last have much better than expected vaccines. I care more about the relatives who must pay -- in every sense -- for the anti-jabbers' malice.

Look, the CDC could've gone to a junior college and hired three PR interns to write better press releases than what these pros have done since spring '20. Their messaging is awful. And they should've waited for the school year to end in a few weeks to (a) get more adolescents jabbed (b) let the it's-cool-to-be-outdoors announcement two weeks ago sink in.

But if the CDC had done so, we'd still have immuno-compromised friends and relatives, asshole anti-jabbers, and kids too young to get jabbed -- in June or July, not today. We were always going to draw a breath when they lifted mask requirements. I bet $$ we'd have this same conversation if the CDC had been consulting ILX for months.

I'm sorry if I sound like Ron Fucking DeSantis. I've dealt with enough despair in my own circles the last 24 hours.

very reluctant to opine in here but i agree w/all that 100%

All I have to add is that I have a very unfortunate image of Ron Swanson in my head now

under 12s can't get vaccinated. under 2s can't wear masks. like 20% of the population is immmunocomprompised regardless of vaccination status. social trust is incredibly low and the honor system is not going to work.

given those difficulties, and given the huge range in local transmission and vaccination rates, "a lol good luck guys!" from the federal agency responsible is a bad rollout.

Agree with everything in this thread by @JuliaLMarcus. CDC guidance is scientifically sound but essentially washes their hands of the messaging and implementation, which are where all the difficulty lies. https://t.co/Sx1Wzcj5sK

— Ed MD (@notdred) May 14, 2021

barely 30% of the US population is fully vaccinated. probably less if you don't count people who got their second does <2 weeks ago (e.g. many of us).

the fraction of people this guidance applies to is small. the fraction of people who will follow this guidance is ... not small.

I bet $$ we'd have this same conversation if the CDC had been consulting ILX for months.

fwiw this conversation is by and large not happening in the UK because 1) they said what they were going to do in advance 2) they waited for cases to fall further and for more people to be vaccinated than the CDC did.

I am definitely not here to say what level of comfort other folks should feel or attack people for being anxious. and moreso i'm tired of seeing other people doing that to people or to me ("why are you wearing a mask?!!! you're vaccinated!!!").

but a few things I wanted to mention...

The CDC began forecasting the next few months of COVID cases several months ago, and they expected the increase in cases that started in late March to continue and surge through May, with cases beginning to decline in July. Instead, cases began declining again as vaccination increases, and sharply - cases have been cut by more than half in the last month. Hospitalizations have decreased sharply in the last two weeks (almost 20%), deaths are also dropping but since it's a trailing stat, not as quickly yet. the infection rate hit an all-time pandemic low for the US earlier this week. This is happening despite all of the states that decided to declare victory and remove many or all of their measures.

The worry about variants is valid, but one thing about the studies on how vaccines react to the variant is many of these studies are lab studies that singularly focus on the ability of the variant to 'escape' antibodies, and antibodies are only one component of a body's immune response. it doesn't necessarily mean a person with that vaccine would be guaranteed to have zero or even significantly reduced protection due to other elements of immune response like T cells, and the fact that the understanding of what an 'effective' level of antibodies is against the virus is poorly understood. That's why the different public health institutes have wisely erred on the side of caution - because of all we don't know. But some of my peers are reacting as if it's a foregone conclusion that you're a sitting duck with any/all variants, when it's probably more like 'you're protected, just less than against original recipe COVID".

If infections are indeed being blocked in the 90% range with mRNA vaccines and transmission for those who suffer a breakthrough infection is significiantly reduced, this significantly handicaps how many people the virus could be spread to, even in a crowd where there is heavy exposure. Which in the past, was almost guaranteed to result in a super-spreader event. And if it's truly reducing the severity of the disease to where far fewer suffer severe disease, get hospitalized, or die, that's a really good indicator we're getting to the other side. These numbers aren't going to be zero as no vaccine offers 100% protection, and we're probably not going to get cases/deaths/hospitalizations to zero. The idea is to get as close to it as we can.

everybody should determine their own comfort level with things and it's not my or anybody's place to tell someone their fears are irrational or accost them for being hesitant. but the opposite applies too. I'm really not the fuck about idiots like the friend of a friend last night who chastised any vaccinated person who had any idea of changing their behavior, as well as Dr Walensky, as being a "moron who failed middle school science" (this person was a photographer who also conflated antibiotic resistance with viral variants). Lots of "trust the science folk" because "fuck the science" folk last night. they're just one level above the assholes I used to see saying "IGNORE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIKE'S WEATHER PAGE IS THE REAL EXPERT ON WHERE THIS HURRICANE WILL GO".

the CDC has had a messaging problem from the get, but it has improved (with some continued stumbles) in the Walensky regime, and she was the Chief of Infectious Diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital the last 3 years, and was on the front lines during the pandemic last year. I trust her way more than the Trump loyalist stooge that believes the virus was created in a lab. and she's had people squeezing her to lift mask mandates since like February or March,and she pushed back repeatedly, even drawing criticism from ex-CDC directors for being too cautious. Her announcement was met with approval from former acting CDC director Richard Besser, Michael Osterholm (director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota), and Dr. Amesh Adalja (infectious disease physician with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security). so I very much trust her, and I worry about the growing number of people peer pressuring their friends to ignore the guidance of the CDC and listen to....who, exactly? Them, the non-expert? I sure as hell am not taking public health cues from a photographer.

some of us will be anxious and hesitant to change our behavior based on the new guidelines, some will not - for a variety of reasons. that's fine. I don't find it appropriate for either side to police each other (which isnt happening here, but is happening like hotcakes across my entire social circle)

I also don't disagree with the Dr Julia Marcus thread because the logistical logjams that will emerge aren't a great thing. but there is no shortage of amateur wannabe epidemiologists saying "THE SCIENCE IS ROOOOOONG" since late last night and I'm sick of that shit.

part of the problem, though, is something the CDC can't control, which was having no national strategy/coordination for a year, and having wildly varying standards by states. Governors obliterating mask mandates in March, etc. CDC now being forced to play Tetris with logistical logjams they didn't technically create but now have to solve.

Booming post.

On a much less serious end of things, apparently even the Jehovah's Witness folks had to adapt. Got a two page hand-written letter from them pushing their website, over half of it is about how unfortunate it is that they can't speak to me in person due to COVID.

haha!

can they Zoom knock on your door

I dunno I kinda liked being able to answer the door wearing a Slayer shirt.

Come and Zoom knock on our door... (Come and Zoom knock on our door) ...
We've been Zoom waiting for you.... (We've been Zoom waiting for you) ...

i answered wearing a Bad Religion crossbusters shirt once, that made for an interesting convo

Meantime, worth a read

As many scientists predicted, B.1.1.7 became the predominant version of the virus in the U.S., now accounting for nearly three-quarters of all cases. But the surge experts had feared ended up a mere blip in most of the country. How did we dodge that fate?https://t.co/2t5jF51CqX

— Apoorva Mandavilli (@apoorva_nyc) May 14, 2021

i answered wearing a Bad Religion crossbusters shirt once, that made for an interesting convo

That would work too. My favorite Bad Religion story was when I wore one of their shirts home from my freshman year in college and my mom goes, "oh I love Bad Religion, that was our drinking 8-track back in high school".

Yes, she was thinking about Bad Company.

Same dif

Yes I think it's bad when people to get sick and die even if their own choices brought it on. I don't tell people dying of lung cancer "Fuck you, you smoked cigarettes for years, this is on you."

Walking to a location hours after the announcement yesterday, this reporter noted a 500% increase in chinstrapping, and a 1000% increase in public smoking.

so that article posted earlier mentioned the slowing of vaccination seems to have stopped, which was true this week until the end of this week. Yesterday and today were significantly lower than they were a week ago. last Thursday and Friday brought vaccination totals well above 2 million (Friday even closer to 3 million), this week both were close to 2 million but just under it.

any feasible real world explanation other than maybe there's further slowing or that numbers are just going to fluctuate since demand is lower now?

obviously I don't think we've seen much of a bounce from the 12-15 approval yet, but i wouldn't expect that this quickly anyway

Over here Monica Gandhi's saying the state and city should remove the mandate; she's been consistently bullish on the vaccines' impact so not surprising:

https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/2021-05-California-mask-mandate-CDC-vaccinated-new-16177861.php

probably because of the theory that we reached our inflection point, like the UK and Israel, combined with the evolving science.

The CDC mask guidance switched too fast without enough explanation and overlooks key sociological factors for indoor mask mandates—especially to protect workers and the immunocompromised. Better to have announced benchmarks—and kept it up just a bit more. https://t.co/soi3jsD1rT pic.twitter.com/wedLXzHlwr

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) May 14, 2021

correct.

put another way ...

Really builds confidence how the CDC went from "vaccinated people may meet in outdoor groups of three for quiet study" to throwing beads out of the CDC Party Bus in the space of about a week

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) May 13, 2021

Basically

It just makes it seem like they’re making stuff up!

literally what everyone does afaict

it's not! you've all learned such low expectations for competence in this country. snap out of it!

What good do higher expectations do

Idk I’m just going to keep behaving exactly the same as I have for a year other than having vaccinated friends visit

We’ll see if things are better or worse in September