Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

most of the side effects of the second shot have been survived, but today i have a massive headache that feels like a hole in my head :D

CA opens up to 16+ next week. I have decided to wait until then for pfizer or moderna rather than get J&J, which is already very widely available here without an appointment. thought it might be useful to explain why.

i am personally very unlikely to get seriously ill from covid. with *any* vaccine that probability goes to essentially zero. that's not what i'm worried about. if that's what you're worried about, you should get the first vaccine you're offered.

what i am worried about is the people in my life who cannot get vaccinated and are not working from home in their PJs like me all day (my kids, their friends, their families, couple of old codgers i know, etc.) so it's more important to me that the vaccine i get reduces the risk of me passing covid on to someone else than it reduces the risk of me getting it in the first place.

the only vaccines with any high quality evidence that they do that are pfizer and moderna, which is based on this trial, which did weekly surveys for even asymptomatic infections https://www.statnews.com/2021/03/29/real-world-study-by-cdc-shows-pfizer-and-moderna-vaccines-were-90-effective/.

i'll only have to wait a few days to get pfizer/moderna. if i had to wait a month i'd probably get J&J. if you already got J&J you did not make a mistake, and you will likely have equivalent protection when the boosters become available later this year. public health officials are not lying or commiting malpractice when they encourage *populations* to get any shot asap (including J&J). all vaccines are good.

I think I didn't get the confirmation email from Walgreens until the day after I scheduled mine, but I checked my online account about a thousand times while I waited, just to make sure.

with *any* vaccine that probability goes to essentially zero.

I think that's true, but isn't the J&J significantly less effective full-stop against Covid and particularly its newer variants? That is, all three vaccines approved in the US will likely keep you from going to the hospital and/or dying, but two of them are close to 100% effective at totally protecting you and one is closer to 65%-75% effective. Do I understand that right? Which means recipients of the J&J could still potentially be a more likely future vector after vaccination than those that got Pfizer or Moderna, right?

J&J is 85% effective against *severe* covid, which is almost the same as pfizer/moderna. and very close to 100% for my purposes.

J&J seems to be less effective against moderate cases, and we assume but don't know (because it wasn't tracked in the trial) that it's less effective still against mild and asymptompatic cases.

Which means recipients of the J&J could still potentially be a more likely future vector after vaccination than those that got Pfizer or Moderna, right?

caek did address this bit three sentences later tbf

i asked a covid immunologist friend with kids to bless my plan and he said he'd do the same thing (but i think he's already vaxxed via the novavax trial). he also told me:

J&J would likely be comparable to pfizer/moderna if they gave two doses, but they only trialed one dose to finish the trial quicker/save lives which, fair enough.

J&J are now trialing a booster with variants in mind, rather than a simple second dose.

J&J recipients will also probably benefit from the moderna booster trial (happening now, going well, US EUA expected in the fall).

and this was his POO, which seems worth posting in full:

Top tier: mRNA (and novavax which is similar in efficacy for B.1.1.7 but more variable antibody levels and somewhat less robust to variants)
---
Second tier: maybe 2 dose adenovirus vaccines? AZ is sloppy and Sputnik is opaque, so hard to recommend either.
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Third tier: 1 dose JnJ. Way more transparent than sputnik, better safety than AZ, and remarkably good 1 dose efficacy against B.1.351
---
Fourth tier: all the inactivated and Ad5 vaccines that barely work.

immunoligists/vaccine people are really angry with AZ btw.

pfizer just officially applied to the FDA to allow use in 12-15 year olds. apparently this will be quick (i.e. days not weeks?).

Good news in terms of speed - I believe they can just amend the EUA and that should happen quickly https://t.co/ei60JDWB1U

— Ed MD (@notdred) April 9, 2021

Pretty handy. That would immediately expand the eligible population in the best of ways.

most of the side effects of the second shot have been survived, but today i have a massive headache that feels like a hole in my head :D

― mellon collie and the infinite bradness (BradNelson), Friday, April 9, 2021 9:37 AM (six hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

oh and chills!

was not expecting to get hit with the side effects stick both times, what a journey. looking forward to the end

Feel better, Brad.

The chills were crazy, I just stood in a hot shower for an hour. It passes quick!

So is J&J going to turn out to be as risky as AZ in terms of clotting? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/09/eu-agency-examines-reports-of-blood-clots-with-jj-covid-vaccine

woke up feelin fine today, and have continued to feel fine

Well now. My 13-year-old son tested positive this morning. He almost certainly got it at school, though he's not aware of being around anyone who was positive. I took him because he started running a fever last night. He's OK so far, temp is just around 100 today, we'll see how it goes. My wife and our 16-yr-old and I have all had our first vaccine dose, so hopefully that will help protect us. We all went to get tested this afternoon, though we went for the lab test rather than the rapid test because none of us have symptoms, so we won't have those result til Monday.

Working out the logistics of isolation and quarantine. The sick boy is upstairs, the rest of us are staying downstairs. We'll see how it goes!

Ha, I said we'll see how it goes twice. What else is there to say, really?

wishing you and your family the best of possible outcomes

Many thanks. None of us are too worried, because the data says we shouldn't be. Here's hoping the data is right!

yikes! sorry to hear that tipsy mothra. at least he has that entire awesome upstairs area to hang out in! is your drum set still up there?

that room is second only to my friend's childhood attic in which i discovered 1) many bands i liked and 2) an old dish that had been under her bed for...months? lol i had a childhood attic room too but mine wasn't redone; when i moved up there i just shoved all the stuff to the other side and lived in the clean half.

Ha, yep, the drums are up there along with his banjolele. Plus, and more importantly from his point of view, his gaming laptop and a bunch of books and comics.

Good luck tipsy

Yeah, good luck. Hasn't happened to us yet, but I'm braced for the possibility.

We've just started to hit several bad news anniversaries in this pandemic, which has been ... surreal. For example, my old friend's daughters (triplets!) were supposed to have their collective bat mitzvah a year ago, but it was of course cancelled, delayed and moved multiple times, in hopes that they could have it a year later. Yet ... no dice, still a Zoom mitzvah. And then one of our best friends, her wonderful mother died a year ago today, of cancer, but they were unable to have a service then, let alone a memorial. Similarly, they hoped they could do it on the one year anniversary, but instead we had a (beautiful) Zoom memorial today. Even us, my daughter had a pared down in-person version bat mitzvah in September, and we're still hoping to celebrate a year later with a party at the end of this summer, but who knows, right? And my sister, by the time we ever get to see her again she'll have had two children that I've never met before. When this is all done it's going to be so strange having literally years of missed occasions to finally make up.

tipsy, best to your family. Hope it's mild and no one else gets it!

4.6m doses today in the US. A 24 hour record.

You get so used to the idea that the US government can't do anything and doesn't really want to do anything.

They definitely can but they rarely want to.

Best of luck tipsy, thinking of you

The friends I saw most regularly before the end of the world started comparing vax notes - five weeks until we're all at max safety, then we can sit around a table, drink Shiner and figure out how to interact with non-family again.

Lengthy thread of stats and where-we're-ats:

NEW: big international Covid data thread, focusing on the contest between vaccines & variants

First to the UK, where things are looking very good. The vaccine effect is still crystal clear, with more than 10,000 lives already estimated to have been saved https://t.co/bbuHMcyVhU pic.twitter.com/t48RNzZGZA

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) April 9, 2021

My Aussie SIL was telling us yesterday about their ongoing vaccine frustrations. She, for example, only knows a single person (healthcare worker) who has been vaccinated, and while life back there sounds more or less normal (one kid is at camp, she's at a retreat with girlfriends), she's stuck, unless she wants to quarantine on return, which both comes out of pocket ($1000 a day?) and, iirc, doesn't even as of yet take into account whether or not you have been vaccinated! She had been planning a visit to the US in December, when everyone that wants to be vaccinated here will likely be vaccinated and when even she would likely be able to get vaccinated, but didn't want to deal with paying all that money and spending all that time to quarantine when she comes homes. So ... yeah, frustrating.

Also saw in passing a news story about a troubling milestone in the US, that we're hurtling close to meeting vaccine demand, which unfortunately falls short of the numbers needed for herd immunity. Gonna have to find a way to convince all the slowpokes (ha, good pun!) to get their shots.

my partner just got his second dose yesterday, and honestly the most... I don't want to say frustrating, that's the wrong word, but delicate part of this has been navigating the fine line between expressing that I do miss him, and that all studies indicate that having both doses of the vaccine provides excellent protection against both infection and transmission so the safety is much higher now, but without coming off like I'm being pushy or pressuring him to do something he feels uncomfortable or unsafe with, or like I only have one conversation topic. way better to err on the side of too careful in that kind of thing.

(I know what it sounds like, but it's not that; he himself has to walk the same line with his roommate, who is even stricter, and even seeing each other outdoors with masks kind of skirts very close to that line)

Is he working from home?

posting this a bit late but this seems positive:

Queens College will host a temporary COVID-19 vaccine pop-up site today, Sunday, April 11 until 4:30pm.

The site will be in the Student Union building at Queens College, located at 152-45 Melbourne Avenue in Flushing, NY.

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is eligible to anyone over 18 years of age with a valid ID. NO APPOINTMENTS ARE NECESSARY.

Does anyone in the UK have a clue about this?

My wife is doing a training course over the weekend in Leamington Spa, I can book a hotel room for her because it's business travel, not a holiday.

BUT how about me and the kids? Am I going to need to drive there and back from Cambridge two days in a row with the kids in the back? Because they are really not going to enjoy that. But we are not there for business and it's not "self-contained accommodation" either.

Neither the Premier Inn or UK government websites seem to have much to say about this.

From the Guardian:

"Non-essential journeys between England and Wales can resume, as can weddings – with up to 15 people – and funeral wakes. UK self-catering holidays can resume but only with people in your household or support bubble."

Actually, re-reading ... that doesn't quite answer your question, does it?

Hmm:

"In line with the latest government restrictions, guests with bookings for work, education or other legally permitted reasons can still stay with us before 17th May. However, we’re unable to accommodate stays for leisure purposes until after this date. Please check that you meet the criteria set by the government and are eligible to stay before arrival."

Could you sack the Premier Inn and go self catering or self-cater with the kids for around the price of petrol?

I mean, you are essentially being a taxi ... which might come under "legally permitted reason" but there's never any clarity on this stuff!

I would imagine you'd be fine and no-one would check. (Assuming your wife isn't in a position to drive herself!)

Question... if my wife and I have both been vaccinated, plus additional two week maxing out period, but my 92 year old mom, who lives by herself, has not, what’s the current assessment of the risk if we go visit/stay with her for awhile? A few weeks ago my thought was no, too risky unless she also gets vaccinated, but it seems like the ability of vaccinated ppl to infect others is turning out to be even lower than expected?

I keep prodding her to get the shot (she lives in St. Paul MN and has vaccinated neighbor friends who could take her) but I am getting the sense that she is going to drag her heels on it unless I go there and take her myself.

You could say you won’t go until she’s vaccinated - might change her perspective!

If you have a good relationship with her and want to see her, I would not wait - I would go - then take her to the appointment if you can get one.

both otm

Your risk assessment is otm, and, at the same time, y'all should be fine.

xxp -- yes and no, mostly yes these days, more no earlier (hence getting the second dose earlier)

I sorta have the same issue w my 95+ grandparents who dont want to bother getting the shot, basically. We’re just going to go visit them; maybe get a 15 minute beforehand.

You could say you won’t go until she’s vaccinated - might change her perspective!

This has been my bargaining chip all along of course. But last night I said something like ‘maybe there’s a way we can come and take you to get the shot ourselves’ and she was like ‘oh that’s a good idea!’ and I thought okayyy I see how it is.

Lol, if it ends up with her vaccinated, that's a good result for everyone.

Since my mom and stepdad are fully vaxxed up now, we went to go see them for a bit yesterday. Was nice to finally be able to do that, although it was really disheartening to hear how absolutely awful vaccination rates seem to be out there.

My mom is fairly active on a library board and knows most of the town, she said "basically no one" out there is getting vaccinated and there is a lot of public shaming on Facebook for the "sheeple" who are mentioning they've gotten the shots. My stepdad said the company he works for, who employs a couple hundred people, has had maybe about 10% of their staff get vaccinated. They've made vaccination mandatory for the techs who have to enter people homes but, even then, they still haven't even gotten 40% of their techs to get it done so far.

Tempers the success of the vaccination improvements a little when I hear all this talk, coupled with IL's rise in cases again.

Maybe enough people will eventually die for them to get the picture (j/k there’s never enough death for them)