A New Thread fot the Current Israel/Palestine/Lebanon mess

If 33 dead children doesn't stop them, then they could be exercising restraint for some time.

I'm not trying to pick a fight, Ned -- just expressing an opinion. I welcome the Stratfor pieces for the same reason you're posting them. If I haven't said "thank you" already, I should've.

Was just talking to an Israeli official. I asked him whether the temporary bombing pause would really be just temporary. He responded, "The proof of the pudding is in the eating." He went on to explain that the purpose of the pause was to get by the moment when the Qana tragedy risked creating irresistable pressure toward an immediate, conditionless ceasefire that would be a victory for Hezbollah. The Israelis believe that the tactic is working and the conversation will soon return to hammering out the conditions that will make a ceasefire sustainable. On the Lebanese political situation, he said the Israelis believe there is a natural rally-around-Hezbollah effect that will fade over time. Finally, on the military campaign he says perhaps those disappointed in how it has been going had "unrealistic expectations." Hezbollah is "extremely well dug in and there is no quick fix." It's "a guerilla war, a war of attrition, and there's going to be no knock-out blow." He says the fighting is all about creating the best possible military conditions on the ground in advance of ceasefire with the right conditions. For what it's worth...

His follow-up is interesting as a bit of mindset guesswork.

I understand why the Israelis agreed to the bombing pause, but it seems to undermine their case: either the bombing is militarily necessary, in which case it should continue even if there are tragic mistakes, or it's not, in which case they shouldn't have been doing it in the first place. I'm guessing it's going to hard for them to start up again—will they stop again as soon as another bomb goes astray?

Also, if the hawkish critics who believe that Israeli should have invaded southern Lebanon in force on the ground are correct that nothing short of that would deliver a debilitating blow to Hezbollah, it is now presumably too late for that to happen. So the least effective part of the Israeli campaign—the bombing—will have foreclosed the option of a more effective campaign on the ground.

Perhaps the situation can still be saved, but it's hard to get around this calculation: Hezbollah is going to survive, and there's no way it is going to disarm voluntarily. A meaningful international force will enter southern Lebanon only if Hezbollah is disarmed, and since it won't be, there won't be a meaningful international force. That means one of the linchpins of the Israeli post-war strategy is not going to come about. So Hezbollah wins.

At this point, around the Middle East, the Bush administration seems to have two options: admit defeat, or continue to raise the stakes.

Elsewhere the likes of Podhoretz and Charen are amusing me with their attempts to square, as noted, morality with realpolitik. In this case, their conclusion appears to be that too many people on 'our' side don't want to kill others. How sad.

but logic has no place at the table with the functioning of realpolitik

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Urging President Bush to turn all U.S. efforts toward "ending this madness," a leading Republican senator Monday broke with the Bush administration and called for an immediate cease-fire in the Mideast.

"The sickening slaughter on both sides must end and it must end now," Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel said. "President Bush must call for an immediate cease-fire. This madness must stop."

The Bush administration has refused to call for Israel to halt its attacks on southern Lebanon, joining Israel in insisting that Hezbollah fighters must be pushed back from the Israeli-Lebanese border.

President Bush Monday in a speech in Miami Beach, Florida, reiterated his call for a cease-fire in the Mideast only if it brought a "long-lasting peace" that addressed Iran and Syria's support for Hezbollah, the Islamic militia that Israel is targeting. (Full story)

Hagel said that refusal threatens to isolate the United States and Israel and harm chances of achieving a long-term peace in the region.

"How do we realistically believe that a continuation of the systematic destruction of an American friend -- the country and people of Lebanon -- is going to enhance America's image and give us the trust and credibility to lead a lasting and sustained peace effort in the Middle East?" asked Hagel, the No. 2 Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Calls for 'a statesman'

He called on Bush to name "a statesman of global stature" as his personal envoy to the region. And he urged the administration to open direct talks with Hezbollah's backers, Iran and Syria, both of which Washington also accuses of meddling in Iraq.

"Our relationship with Israel is special and historic," he said. "But it need not and cannot be at the expense of our Arab and Muslim relationships. That is an irresponsible and dangerous false choice."

Bush was headed back to Washington after a fund-raising trip to Florida, and the White House had no immediate reaction to Hagel's comments.

Like his frequent ally, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, Hagel is a possible GOP presidential candidate in 2008 and has been critical of the administration's handling of Iraq. But few members of Congress have broken ranks with the president over his handling of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

Calls for an end to the 20-day conflict have increased since Israel's bombing Sunday of the Lebanese town of Qana, which left at least 54 civilians dead. Hagel said the Israeli campaign was "tearing Lebanon apart," and the resulting civilian casualties and economic damage were weakening the country and bolstering support for Hezbollah, which the U.S. State Department considers a terrorist organization.

Hagel urged the administration to revive the Beirut Declaration of 2002, authored by Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, under which Arab countries would have recognized Israel's right to exist. Hagel said that declaration was "a starting point" toward a regional settlement, but the United States "squandered" it.

'Bogged down' in Iraq?

Meanwhile, the decorated Vietnam veteran said the United States "is bogged down in Iraq," limiting U.S. diplomatic and military options. Last week's announcement that more than 3,000 more American troops were needed to reinforce Baghdad amid rising sectarian violence was "a dramatic setback," he said.

He said the 3-year-old war is wearing badly on the U.S. military, and that Iraq's fledgling democracy needs to take over more of its security responsibilities from American troops.

"This is not about setting a timeline," Hagel said. "This is about understanding the implications of the forces of reality."

This is a surprisingly nuanced and well-spoken point.

I am also interested by the suggestion that the tendency to fling bombs around is being triggered by the relatively poor performance of the Israeli army. It's like they are saying "You made us look bad - and that's not good".

Fuck off, you clown.

I predict rapid success followed by the cheering of Israeli troops as liberators and the traditional showering of flowers.

the idea that pointing out that qana is where jesus fed the 5,000 makes me "extreme" is so hilarious to me.

Okay, I have seen everything: pizzaIDF.org

Intelligence received by Stratfor in the past 24 hours indicates that Israel
believes military operations against Hezbollah will soon be reaching a climax in
Lebanon, and activity by both sides in the conflict since then has been
intensifying. It has been our assessment that as Hezbollah fighters come under
greater duress, there is a strong possibility that the organization will revert to
employing terrorist tactics against Westerners that it used in the past - such as
kidnappings, bombings or other acts of violence.

We have also taken note of a warden message issued yesterday, August 1st, that
imposes a curfew on U.S. Embassy staff in Damascus - a precaution for their safety
as emotions run high in Syria. We view this as further affirmation that, with
military operations entering a crucial phase, the danger of terrorist activity is
now ticking upward. We have no direct intelligence on this but we are clearly
entering a period of heightened threat.

For the safety of our readers, we invite you to read a recent special report
produced by our security team. This report outlines where Stratfor believes
terrorist attacks might be possible, the kinds of targets Hezbollah might choose,
its rationale for doing so and the rapidity with which the organization might move.

They are further offering a free download of a piece called "Hezbollah and Iran: Security Risks Beyond the Middle East, August 2006", should you so choose to read it.

given that the consensus view thus far is that Hezbollah are performing far better than expected, I do not think this that unlikely.

My recollection of the 1980s is a bit hazey, but my impression is that the kidnappings happened at a time when Hezbollah was somewhat weak organisationally. Once they got a lot better at fighting the Israelis in south Lebanon, they lost interest in kidnapping foreigners. Militarily, it looks like the current Israeli stuff plays to Hezbollah's strengths. So Israel wants to re-establish a security zone in south Lebanon? I can't but feel that Hezbollah are thinking "Bring it on" and will not see themselves as having much to gain from kidnapping journalists.

The book was found open to a page describing, in Latin script, Psalm 83, in which God hears complaints of other nations' attempts to wipe out the name of Israel.

more sense, just waiting to be made.

My recollection of the 1980s is a bit hazey, but my impression is that the kidnappings happened at a time when Hezbollah was somewhat weak organisationally. Once they got a lot better at fighting the Israelis in south Lebanon, they lost interest in kidnapping foreigners. Militarily, it looks like the current Israeli stuff plays to Hezbollah's strengths. So Israel wants to re-establish a security zone in south Lebanon? I can't but feel that Hezbollah are thinking "Bring it on" and will not see themselves as having much to gain from kidnapping journalists.

OTM

Israel don't want to seem weak when attacked, but of course that will just push their enemies farther into extremism. One of the difficulties of fighting organizations that have a strict ideology as their basis.

Couldn't almost anything then be taken as a clue that any point in history might be the end times?

Down through the years that’s true. But never the accumulation of events as we have today. I have often said that no one knows the day nor the hour that Christ will come, but no generation has had so many signs of the times as our generation. We have more reason to believe that Christ could come in our lifetime than any generation before us.

no it wasn't. It was found open on a page showing Psalm 83 from THE CATHOLIC BIBLE, which numbers the psalms differently. The one shown was about something completely different.

If the rapture should take place, resulting in my absence, it will become necessary for tribulation saints to mirror or financially support this site.

For reference:

Psalm 83
Quam dilecta. The soul aspireth after heaven; rejoicing in the mean time, in being in the communion of God's church upon earth.

83:1. Unto the end, for the winepresses, a psalm for the sons of Core.
Victori pro torculari filiorum Core canticum

83:2. How lovely are thy tabernacles, O Lord of hosts!
Quam dilecta tabernacula tua Domine exercituum

83:3. My soul longeth and fainteth for the courts of the Lord. My heart and my flesh have rejoiced in the living God.
Desiderat et defecit anima mea in atria Domini cor meum et caro mea laudabunt Deum viventem

83:4. For the sparrow hath found herself a house, and the turtle a nest for herself where she may lay her young ones: Thy altars, O Lord of hosts, my king and my God.
Siquidem avis invenit domum et passer nidum sibi ubi ponat pullos suos altaria tua Domine exercituum rex meus et Deus meus

83:5. Blessed are they that dwell in thy house, O Lord: they shall praise thee for ever and ever.
Beati qui habitant in domo tua adhuc laudabunt te semper

83:6. Blessed is the man whose help is from thee: in his heart he hath disposed to ascend by steps,*
Beatus homo cuius fortitudo est in te semitae in corde eius

83:7. In the vale of tears, in the place which he hath set.
Transeuntes in valle fletus fontem ponent eam

83:8. For the lawgiver shall give a blessing, they shall go from virtue to virtue: the God of gods shall be seen in Sion.
Benedictione quoque amicietur doctor ibunt de fortitudine in fortitudinem parebunt apud Deum in Sion

83:9. O Lord God of hosts, hear my prayer: give ear, O God of Jacob.
Domine Deus exercituum exaudi orationem meam ausculta Deus Iacob semper

83:10. Behold, O God our protector: and look on the face of thy Christ.
Clipeus noster vide Deus et adtende faciem christi tui

83:11. For better is one day in thy courts above thousands. I have chosen to be an abject in the house of my God, rather than to dwell in the tabernacles of sinners.
Quoniam melior est dies in atriis tuis super milia elegi abiectus esse in domo Dei mei magis quam habitare in tabernaculis impietatis

83:12. For God loveth mercy and truth: the Lord will give grace and glory.
Quia sol et scutum Dominus Deus gratiam et gloriam dabit Dominus

83:13. He will not deprive of good things them that walk in innocence: O Lord of hosts, blessed is the man that trusteth in thee.
Nec prohibebit bonum ab his qui ambulant in perfectione Domine exercituum beatus homo qui confidet in te

MALKIN: Because they are intoxicated.

I hope this came right after a story about how fundamentalist Christians are creaming their pants over the SIGNS OF THE COMING APOCALYPSE.

I'm tempted to say that's a good idea, but it might just be wishful thinking.

You're talking about strengthening an already-in-place sovereign government and empowering them to take control of a single area/province, rather than deposing and replacing an entire regime and trying to get them to control an entire nation.

Still, like I said, might be wishful thinking.

What do you guys see as a solution though? I mean cease fire sounds good for a start, but then you're stuck with two deeply wounded nations, each still convinced the other is a threat to its security. If you lack faith in a U.S.-trained Lebanese force, why would a U.N. force have a better chance of success? Isn't that wishful thinking too?