Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

I don't think there are a lot of likely high risk scenarios created by vaccinated parents traveling with kids.

you know people who catch covid are a danger to others as well as themselves, right?

Oster's analogy to a vaccinated adult was kind of clumsy and unhelpful

it's grounds for a correction. it's wrong.

how can it be permissible

unvaccinated kids can act like normal when unvaccinated adults can act like normal, i.e. when we have herd immunity. we may reach that point by the summer, but their own vulnerability is beside the point when people are dying.

"beside the point" is a bit strong, but it's not the only issue.

the article says more, but the headline and explicit "act like they're vaccinated" advice are terrible.

This is both false and dangerous, @theatlantic. While most children do not suffer severe symptoms, they contract and transmit the disease.

Please correct it immediately. https://t.co/c0FAWTKnvm

— Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom) March 19, 2021

To be clear: the article as a whole makes a nuanced argument that, whether or not you agree with it, is not what I’d call misinformation.

Extracting this quotation out of context to drive clicks IS misinformation—given that most people will read the tweet but not click.

— Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom) March 19, 2021

Obviously that Atlantic article was upsetting to many people, many of whom I respect and admire.

I wanted to respond.

My goal in the article was to help parents understand what many people say when they say children are "low risk" (1/n)

— ProfEmilyOster (@ProfEmilyOster) March 19, 2021

Carl T. Bergstrom otm, Oster generally good on this stuff but stepped on a medium-sized rake this time, it happens to all of us

you know people who catch covid are a danger to others as well as themselves, right?

Yes, and I repeat, it's hard to imagine a lot of high risk scenarios involving taking your kids on vacation, meaning including scenarios where they would spread it to others.

it's grounds for a correction. it's wrong.

The Atlantic tweet clips the sentence before the end and leaves out the context.. What she said was not actually incorrect in context.

Yes, and I repeat, it's hard to imagine a lot of high risk scenarios involving taking your kids on vacation, meaning including scenarios where they would spread it to others.

you ... think it's hard to imagine covid being spread in restaurants and museums and airports?

Yes, and I repeat, it's hard to imagine a lot of high risk scenarios involving taking your kids on vacation, meaning including scenarios where they would spread it to others.

counterpoint: it's very easy

lol xp

people who need to take their kids to disney world right now are sure to be the most likely to avoid cheesecake factory in the interest of public health, though

also i agree she has more to say, but wtf are you talking about, the atlantic tweet *doesn't* clip the sentence. it's a verbatim quote of two complete sentences from the article.

two sentences that that are followed by "hear me out." (which is a clue she knows she's just said something hyperbolic as a intriguing lede, and something that is likely to be taken out of context.

i have a lot of time for the argument that some scolds are sacrificing kids' (and parents') physical and emotional wellbeing in pursuit of 0.00% risk.

but that is a bad article.

sry was confusing with another tweet, but yeah this is what she actually is saying:

"Your unvaccinated first grader appears to have about as much protection from serious illness as a vaccinated grandmother."

which is accurate

As far as vacations, yeah, it is unlikely that an asymptomatic child is going to spread the virus to someone at another table in a restaurant, or give it to someone in a museum or airport terminal. And you can always do outdoor dining and museums with timed entry.

this entire conversation is feeding my anxiety because I haven't seen my kids in a year and I eagerly await vaccination so I can hug them but they are both asthmatic and I have not found enough data to my satisfaction to reassure myself that I wouldn't be exposing them to unnecessary danger by traveling to see them and/or bringing them home with me for an extended stay

That's an incredibly hard position to be in as a parent. Oof.

this is what she actually is saying

i dunno. i think she's saying the other 100% accurate quote too?

can't vaccinated adults spread it as well? do we have any numbers on that?

all signs point to it being non-zero but very rare. part of the evidence for that is that all signs point to non-symptompatic people not spreading it (as much).

(part of oster's argument, which is correct, and lost in terrible intro/hook is that children tend to by non-symptomatic if they get it too, which means they likely infect others less. it's a bit of a leap to say treat them like they are vaccinated and go to restaurants, airports and museums.)

Should recipients of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which is iirc some 30% less effective than the other two, be treated differently?

I mean, isn't the ultimate goal not to prevent people from catching it but to prevent people from dying? I suppose it stands to reason that if anyone catches it then those people have a better (worse) chance of mortality, but again, if the goal is to prevent people from getting it 100%, I don't know if that's ever achievable.

It's partly a question of messaging, I think. A headline that actively encourages people to plan a family trip with unvaccinated kids doesn't send a particularly good message, imo, even if you think that we're going to have to get used to some level of elevated risk in the years to come.

It's not like we're faced with a choice between locking down forever and instantly going back to everything we used to do pre-pandemic. It's reasonable to say, "Here are the risks, to us and to others; here are some useful ways to think about those risks in context so that you can decide what makes sense for you and your family." But just saying, "Go ahead, take your kids to restaurants, even if they have an asymptomatic case it's probably nbd" misses the point that most of our individual actions during Covid aren't that risky by themselves; what we need guidance on is knowing how the risk adds up for the community.

You can plan a vaccination with your kids that involves minimal risk: renting a cabin on a lake, driving there and eating food you packed on the way, doing a masked handover of keys with some weathered local at start and end. It's bonkers to actively encourage activity that spreads the virus while new variants are still eagerly generating themselves.

New Zealand reopened in June 2020. Western Australia didn't lock down until February 5th 2021, for five days. Pubs reopened in Sydney in May 2020. These places won't be vaccinated until late 2021 at best, but they stopped people from spreading the virus. Why not try that?

lol vaccination vacation

I totally agree; that's why I think the message should be: "Planning a trip with unvaccinated kids? Here are some ways to do that relatively safely!" rather than "Go ahead and plan your vacation as if everyone's vaccinated including your kids."

National Lampoon's Vaccination

There has got to be an easier way of doing this, but I'm starting to think Chicago and Cook County take the more difficult path at nearly every turn. For the past two weeks, we've had a whole series of announcements by the state of Illinois adding more people to the eligibility list, which is great, but each announcement is followed by Chicago and Cook County both saying essentially, "that's nice, but we're not opening up". So, the upshot is you have the most densely populated county in the state (where 40% of the population of the entire state lives) stuck in this constant state of "am I eligible or not"? No wonder people are frustrated.

My similarly frustrated friend in the city was having the toughest time, but she did eventually finally get her first shot last week after refreshing a website a few days. Sounds like Chicago specifically is doing things weird or slow.

Well, Illinois just announced Friday that starting today (3/22) they were going to add higher education staff, government workers and media workers to the list of expanded eligibility categories, but then this morning articles came out clarifying that both Cook County and Chicago were opting out of this expansion.

Dammit, hit 'submit post' before I pasted in the quote:

But when the state entered Phase 1B Plus, several jurisdictions, including the city of Chicago, suburban Cook County and several other counties in the area, announced that they would not expand eligibility along with the rest of Illinois, citing low vaccine supply.

I called my mother after I got my first shot on Saturday. She was THIIIIS close to swearing at me, because she hasn't able to get an appointment (in Montgomery County, MD). She refuses to get Internet access, and according to her the phone registration system is useless. I really don't want to have to make an online appointment for her, but if she can't work out something via phone....

“media workers”!??

Yep, that was a weird one. And, of course, helpfully, no further explanation of what that means or who that specifically covers.

America

Paints face and hair like the Joker, goes to South Beach, climbs up on a car with an American flag, screams “Fucking COVID is over baby!” and makes it rain. #BecauseMiami pic.twitter.com/JTLEjzCZps

— Billy Corben (@BillyCorben) March 20, 2021

MIAMI

Not sure what is happening, but Illinois' 7-day rolling average for vaccines administered has dropped every day for the last week. Guessing we still haven't seen the supply spike that we are supposed to be nearing, even so it's disappointing to see the numbers dropping instead of at least holding steady.

where are you seeing that? that's not correct according to the bloomberg tracker fwiw.

I've been keeping track at the IPDH page, using their dashboard:

https://dph.illinois.gov/covid19/vaccinedata?county=Illinois

The chart on the right hand side about halfway down. I guess there was one day last week where the 7-day rolling average increased, but otherwise down every other day. I'm sure it's temporary, but disappointing to see nonetheless.

IDPH, that should be

fair enough. in the last seven days, their rolling average was up compared to the day before on march 15 and 18, fwiw. and they may not have all the march 21 (sunday) data yet.

Yeah, Sunday's are always weird with reporting, I try not to put much stock in those days. Guess I was hoping for a little more stability by this point.

Really trying not to encourage my cynical nature but it's starting to feel like the impending supply surge is perpetually coming "next week".

eh, it looks extremely stable to me fwiw.

it would be better if it was going up, but i think you're going out on a limb if you say the orange line here is going up or going down (especially with sunday weirdness in mind).

https://i.postimg.cc/4NKP7LB3/Screen-Shot-2021-03-22-at-11-51-52.png

You are correct, overall it does appear to be fairly flat. Considering our end goal here, plateauing numbers are equally disappointing, I would argue.

king county WA is on like week 5 of plateaued doses available and I’m gritting my teeth

Oof, that's not a great sign either.

Do we have any updated information on the timing of the supply increase? Last I could find it seems like since J&J fell behind, it might be early April before the states really see more doses arriving.

xxp well, no. stable numbers are not equally as disappointing as a decline. but agreed it would be better if they were going up fast everywhere rather than on average and nationally.

Fwiw, the drive-thru clinic I volunteer at has been having two or three long shifts a week for the past few weeks, but this week has only one scheduled. It could be, though, that the one this week is the second dose follow-up to a single dose week a month ago. That largely seems like how it's been organized, one day it's first shots, the next day it's follow-ups from the previous month. Distribution and supply have been kind of inscrutable, imo.