Beware the Ides of March -- U.S. Politics March 2021

supposedly the proposal would also make the first $10,200 in unemployment insurance benefits nontaxable.

that really only helps you next year though

well, ok, this year if you were having federal withholding proactively taken from it i guess

Democrats won the Senate by campaigning on $2,000 checks.

Then we had to message $600+$1,400=$2,000.

Then we narrowed eligibility = 17 million fewer people getting checks under Biden v. Trump.

All to save $12B in a $1.9T package with no GOP support. All for a couple moderates.

— Sawyer Hackett (@SawyerHackett) March 5, 2021

aide to Julian Castro - it's maybe not just Brooklyn podcasters and DSA Twitter who think $1400 vs. $2000 (followed by 'no check for you') is a fuck up.

Maggie Hassan (NH)

i feel like i pay a decent amount of attention to national politics, and yet there's always at least one senators where i'm like "who the fuck are you? never heard of ya"

RONALD REAGAN WAS ELECTED IN 1980. THAT WAS 41 YEARS AGO. THERE ARE NO MORE 'REAGAN DEMOCRATS.' THEY'RE ALL DEAD. FUCK THE FUCK OFF WITH THIS BULLSHIT.

The Rise of the Biden Republicans
The pollster who identified “Reagan Democrats” in the 1980s sees the emergence of a mirror image voting bloc. And it spells trouble for a GOP dominated by Trump.

she's up for re-election next year too, after winning by less than 800 votes in 2016

xp

the bill is a good thing for many many people, and the child credit component is going to help a lot of people. but the bill could have been way better if idiot moderates hadn't been allowed to water the fucking thing down.

even the child credit was watered down to one year

"all for a couple of moderates". there were 8?

i mean those are bad votes, but i'm not sure what the other 42 were supposed to do.

(biden on the other hand can eat shit for not grabbing some lapels and leaning over people and yelling at them from the toilet johnson-style on this.)

xpost didn't see that. meh. that's going to piss off one of my friends who is a single mother of three.

like look at this gruel. she has no opinions. biden could totally have persuaded her.

pic.twitter.com/a2VkwKcY8r

— Kyrsten Sinema (@SenatorSinema) March 5, 2021

The 8 moderate votes were on a procedural vote for a roll call vote on the minimum wage, not the check allocation

i don't think senators release statements on purely "procedural votes". those were de facto votes against raising the minimum wage to $15 and there were 8 of them.

but yeah point taken, the castro aid is referring to the "savings" (money isn't real) from reducing the checks. they didn't substantively vote on that yet, did they? are there amendments for $2000, etc.? or is it just a straight $1400 vote?

De facto rejection or not, it was a procedural vote that keeps everyone - like Sinema and every Republican in a state where people want a minimum wage increase - off the actual record on the minimum wage.

well, yes, they didn't have the votes to increase the minimum wage to $15?

love to see it

If any Senator believes this is the last time they will cast a vote on whether or not to give a raise to 32 million Americans, they are sorely mistaken. We’re going to keep bringing it up, and we’re going to get it done because it is what the American people demand and need.

— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) March 5, 2021

could someone explain the "avoid another cliff" point here?

Overall I think this is a deal worth making
• taxing UI benefits is good policy during normal times if benefits are generous (it’s a more efficient way of means-testing), but forgiveness this year makes sense to avoid surprise tax bills, both a policy and political problem https://t.co/DPuC99wGAL

— James Medlock (@jdcmedlock) March 5, 2021

• the trade off of going from $400/week to $300 in exchange for tax forgiveness is a regressive one, but extending the benefit duration for much longer will be progressive, and will avoid another cliff. And $300 is still over 100% replacement for 50% of people, which is great

— James Medlock (@jdcmedlock) March 5, 2021

The House bill would have had UI benefits expiring during a recess IIRC

The day can get even better!

So I am hearing the issue on the floor is: Dueling amendments coming up on UI. There's the deal centrist/progressive Dems struck earlier, then a Portman one to cut UI and reduce duration. There's concern Manchin could vote for Portman's.

— Jim Newell (@jim_newell) March 5, 2021

earmarks can't come back soon enough.

Maybe he just hates the pressure of being President and wants to lose Congress so he can be irrelevant again.

Manchin seems like the kind of asshole who will jerk people around just to show he has the power to do it. He thinks it magnifies his importance.

Again with the massive overestimation of the power of the president in these situations. Remember when Trump muscled the ACA repeal through Congress? When Obama didn't have to make a million trade-offs to get the ACA passed? When W rammed through his Social Security privatization and immigration reform bill? No? Because they didn't happen.

But sure, it's just that Sleepy Joe doesn't want it enough.

No one has mentioned Biden today.

Which President were you referring to?

But I mean, Democrats internal disarray over the ACA and everything else worked out wonderfully so we should absolutely be cool with Democrats repeating it now.

The ACA repeal was delayed because it politically unpopular, whereas the COVID relief act in general, $15 minimum wage, enhanced UI and $2000 checks all poll far better than Joe Biden or anyone in Congress.

Presidential Manchin, the proper noun being talked about for the preceding 10 posts.

President Manchin

Senator Sinema a little too happy for poverty wages to remain pic.twitter.com/ze2T2CGtML

— RootsAction (@Roots_Action) March 5, 2021

tee hee hee. Fuck off.

If earmarks had existed now, Biden, who lived through this era, might've been able to buy Manchin and Sinema.

President <asshole senator> is a construction that's been around here since forever:

US POLITICS: AMERICANS, PLEASE WELCOME YOUR NEW PRESIDENT... SCOTT BROWN!

🎶 It's Been Sinema All Along 🎶

lol

haha

lmao

It’s mind boggling to believe the Sinema clip is real. The curtain isn’t supposed to be peeled back quite that far.

this Mean Girls remake cuts a little too close to home

If sleepy Joe wanted any of this he’d be using the bully pulpit. Obviously that exposes him to cascading gaffes and questions about his cognitive abilities. But it is his job.

Which most likely means he doesn’t want these things.

Sinema is fucking revolting, and that little floppy dance makes it undeniable. She needs to be primaried out of existence. Does she think she's cute in her boots and her idiotic backpack? WTF with this shit. AZ voted in Mark Kelly. They don't need this crap.

Bully pulpits work in 2020? Bully pulpits work when you've got (a) earmarks (b) a conspiratorial electorate ready to believe your messianic fantasies.

*2021 lol

It's important that Biden not rock the boat now by pressuring Manchin and Sinema, because he will need their votes on the John Lewis VRAA, public option, PRO Act and many other bills that will never make it to the Senate floor because of the filibuster.

xps look i'm mad at sinema too but can we dial back the misogyny a notch or two

so last weekend i was in a very small town in the southern utah desert. there is a coffee shop there that has managed to survive over the past 15 years. it's a mom and pop store. they made a point to be very friendly to us (a gay couple) and were a delight to talk to. i asked how business was over the last year and they said that they were holding on, but one thing that would absolutely shut them down would be a $15 minimum wage. she said that she believed people should be paid that but that they wouldn't survive it. i know we all hate small business owners but it would truly be a travesty if this coffee shop in green river utah were gone. do yee oh wise ones of ilx have a response to this kind of scenario.

one would think you could still put public pressure on senators in states where these objectives poll extremely well (i.e., all of them. literally every single state), but it’s possible that people are so inured to the failure of our elected leaders to actually govern that they figure hey why bother.
extremely bad look though imo.

Low wage workers put their money directly into the economy, an actual 'rising tide lifts all boats' scenario because now more people can afford a $5 cup of coffee.

A $15 minimum wage increase would come over the course of four years, allowing the coffee shop owner's circumstances to adjust, with predictable increases going forward. (I'd also be incredibly surprised if a coffee shop's labor costs weren't well behind raw materials, utilities and rent in expenses.)

xpost yeah if you can’t pay an employee then do the work yourself

Part of the reason our economy is perpetually on the verge of crisis is that half the country doesn't have money to spend unless they use credit cards with usurious rates of interest.

ty milo