“It’s a little too quiet” - US Politics February 2021

i'm going to try to get a bunch of people whose family members died of Covid to stand in a large group together and yell at ted cruz

guys the secret passcode for getting milo to shut up is this sequence of words “yes, joe biden should absolutely be publicly demanding $15/hr” and it has the additional benefit of being true

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Sunday, February 28, 2021 6:19 AM (three hours ago)

tracer otm

I don’t think $15 an hour was a “negotiating ploy,” I think it’s what the Democrats (even Biden) want in general. But not ALL of them want it, because not ALL of congressional Democrats want all the same things and when you have a 50-50 split that becomes a problem. If we had a 55-45 split and they still couldn’t do it, that would be a different situation. But the difference between a 50-50 Senate and a 55-45 Senate, combined with a president whose commitment on the issue falls short of the more impassioned progressives in the party, is part of the facts-on-the-ground. And those facts are, to be clear, considerably better than they could have been if either Georgia race had gone differently. But they’re still what they are.

And so if the $15 wage — ALWAYS a high political hurdle — becomes out of reach, then $15 becomes the de facto opening position for what comes next, which means the end result is most likely something less than that. Which was always the most likely scenario with these particular facts.

there is no center

milo, I think you're misreading hopes as predictions. Lots of people want/wanted to believe this administration would usher in unprecedentedly progressive reforms, but lots of people have also paid attention to Biden's decades-long career and have tempered their expectations accordingly. I genuinely don't recall anyone saying Biden would definitely become nu-FDR but feel free to cite some posts to the contrary.

Also: yes, joe biden should absolutely be publicly demanding $15/hr.

But not ALL of them want it, because not ALL of congressional Democrats want all the same things

I would think that all congressional Democrats want to be re-elected?

I don’t think $15 an hour was a “negotiating ploy,” I think it’s what the Democrats (even Biden) want in general

I have no doubt that if Biden could wave a wand and create a $15 minimum wage he'd do it. But also, I don't think he's nearly as committed to it as a lot of more progressive Democrats. Both of those things can be true.

And also, none of this is unusual! Or specific to hapless or craven Democrats. Presidents and governors of both parties with governing majorities fail to get things passed all the time.

I would think that all congressional Democrats want to be re-elected?

Of course they do. So the degree to which someone like Manchin or Sinema isn't on the frontlines for $15 an hour tells you something about how they're doing the political math for their particular seats. Maybe they're doing that math wrong, I don't know, I don't live in West Virginia or Arizona and I don't know how much or little pressure they're getting on this in either direction. (To that end, one useful thing to do obviously would be for progressive groups in those states to really activate and light up their phonelines, and hopefully that's happening.)

To that end, one useful thing to do obviously would be for progressive groups in those states to really activate and light up their phonelines, and hopefully that's happening.

thank you, I agree.

that any one of these Ds think $15/hr is bad politics is baffling. Didn’t Bush Jr. hand out $300 checks to everyone early on in his first term to pass some tax cuts for the rich?

Bush signed the last minimum wage increase.

I’m not going to look it up but but I’d be shocked if 15/ hr doesn’t outperform Sinema, Manchin and even republicans in red states.

Any “political math” being done is explicitly to keep donor class from getting itchy

that and also out of fear from potential blowback over "inflation" "destroying small businesses" "exporting jobs to China" ... all the things that the Slate article milo posted a link to brought up.

but the thing is, if all your decisions are reactionary against the possible attack ads the opposition could run against you ... that just seems like no way to go about things.

^^ basically the D problem in a nutshell, one of their own making that mostly exists in their heads

it's one of those die on one's feet vs. living on one's knees, but it's not like the Democrats will literally die, they will just get jobs with corporations or large universities or something.

it’s hard for me to separate the strategic question of ‘should biden get kamala to ignore the parliamentarian and force the senate vote and risk having sinema and manchin (and possibly others) sink the bill in order to get $15 in through reconciliation using the leverage of the covid relief bill’ from the question of what’s in the hearts of dem leaders. like maybe they really hate 15$ and even though it’s hugely popular they genuinely don’t want to pass it. or maybe they’re risk averse and don’t want a big fight right off the bat that could empower manchin

xxxxp - the Arizona ballot measure from 2016 that has gotten their minimum wage above $12 won 58% of the vote

A WV poll on $15 found 63% in favor but it was from a fair wage group so ???

We're still only a month into Biden's presidency. The idea that he and the Democratic Party have failed, or demonstrated obvious rank incompetence, just because they haven't been able to get a minimum wage hike into an omnibus COVID relief bill seems premature.

Some people seem so eager to point to any road bumps as proof that their pessimistic predictions were correct, rather than momentary disappointments on a longer path of progress.

Also, I get that focusing on structural barriers can sometimes ignore the fact that party leaders have agency and can exert political will. But focusing so much on their individual failures and weaknesses too often ignores the genuinely difficult situational realities that have hemmed them in.

Who on this board wasn't disappointed that Biden became the democratic nominee? Who?

Dan S

I don’t think there is a situational reality keeping the most powerful man on the planet who just won the most votes in history from going on TV and demanding $15 an hour.

Any “political math” being done is explicitly to keep donor class from getting itchy

No kidding. The donor class is a fairly big part of the political math in our dumb corrupt system. Which is why we again/still/always need campaign reform and ideally get Citizens United overturned or reined in.

I don’t know if you guys have noticed this, but lots of things that pole well — like universal healthcare — don’t actually get enacted. And the only way to try to get them enacted is to go thru this dumb corrupt system. At least unless/until we can make it less dumb and corrupt. But nothing about a corporate Democrat president and 50 votes in the Senate makes a massive overhaul of our system likely in the short term. So if you want to pass a minimum wage increase in 2021, you have to deal with the system we have.

pole well, poll well

I don’t think there is a situational reality keeping the most powerful man on the planet who just won the most votes in history from going on TV and demanding $15 an hour.

― Joe Biden Stan Account (milo z), Sunday, February 28, 2021 12:57 PM (thirty-nine seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

Sure, I guess he could do that. And I'd be happy to see him do so. But I'm not convinced that that alone would persuade Joe Manchin to vote any differently.

It might if he said 'and Joe Manchin doesn't think you deserve $15/hr'

Maybe not, but the acquiescence is more than half the problem. If you’re not going to put Manchin or whomever on the spot on an overwhelmingly popular campaign promise, when? Is all that political capital dedicated to getting Neera Tanden a job?

it doesn't require a whole lot of effort ... like, as the president of the US, he doesn't have to do much to convince the news media to pay attention to him. Maybe he can pose with the dog or something while saying it. People like dogs.

Once again, I would encourage all of you to pick up the phone Monday morning to yell at your Senators to "pass the fucking bill already and oh by the way $15 minimum wage asshole", rather than making the same arguments on here forever.

PS abolish the filibuster

I would add, of course be polite to the underpaid and overworked staff person taking the call, but firm.

I've tried to figure out the biggest difference between milo's position and those here he argues against most vehemently. afaics, we all agree on the following:

• a $15/hr. minimum wage should be among the highest policy goals for the Biden administration
• even this would barely begin to make up the amount of ground necessary to address the problem of workers living in abject poverty
• the prospects of passing a $15/hr. minimum wage in the next few months seem quite dim
• passing a much lower minimum wage than $15/hr, as a compromise would be even more drastically inadequate
• even that much may be stymied
• the root of this political impasse is that all 50 Democratic senators must commit to doing whatever it takes to get a $15/hr wage passed, even if it means ending the filibuster, but there is no unanimity among the 50 senators to do this

He will not stop until we all agree in full with this assessment of the party in full and consign them all to hell. This alone will satisfy him. Any deviation from this view, or hint or suggestion of a different assessment he will combat with all his might. Once he has achieved this, the next step will be, um, organizing the masses to withhold their votes from democratic candidiates. He's still working on what steps would follow that.

I have yet to demand anyone do anything but go off bro.

milo demands that you go off bro

Once again, I would encourage all of you to pick up the phone Monday morning to yell at your Senators to "pass the fucking bill already and oh by the way $15 minimum wage asshole", rather than making the same arguments on here forever.

my two senators and Sen. Sanders introduced a $15 minimum wage bill, indexed to median wage growth thereafter, in April 2017

wait

my two senators and Sen. Sanders introduced a $15 minimum wage bill, indexed to median wage growth thereafter, in April 2017, but go off bro

I'm not going to touch Aimless's final paragraph, but I agree with the rest.

let me introduce you to "my two senators" *rolls up sleeves and flexes*

my two senators and Sen. Sanders introduced a $15 minimum wage bill, _indexed to median wage growth_ thereafter, in April 2017, but go off bro

Calling Ted Cruz is even more pointless than posting.

im not sure if the politics of its passage will improve but one thing about 15$ that’s unlike the rest of covid relief is you can pass the exact same bill with same timeline of phase-ins later and it will have exactly the same effect

if you have two things, each without a point, can one lack a point more than the other?

sit beside the breakfast table
post about your troubles

"I have yet to demand anyone do anything but go off bro."

Lol I never demanded my roommate clean the house, I just poked my head into to his room every 10 minutes to go on a rant about how dirty the house is and how stupid it is that he hasn't cleaned it

My two Trumpsters would definitely get a giggle out of anyone demanding a minimum wage increase of any kind. (And they will pay no political price at all for opposing it.) But I agree that calling offices is good.

Lol I never demanded my roommate clean the house, I just poked my head into to his room every 10 minutes to go on a rant about how dirty the house is and how stupid it is that he hasn't cleaned it

If your roommate started talking about how dirt is simply the way of the world, unavoidable and the system makes it impossible for a real deep cleaning to happen you might disagree, no?

Stay focused, Milo. My post was referring to you saying you made no demands on ppl, not about other ppl's posts about Democrats. You do this often: grasp onto an aspect of someone's post to make an unrelated jab at Dems or how you think ILX views Dems for the bazillionth time.

Unlike Some People in this thread who think that puppy-kicking is perfectly acceptable (if not downright enjoyable), I would like to strongly reiterate my unwavering anti-puppy-kicking stance.