outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

The fact that The Lancet is not infallible and has fucked up in the past doesn't mean its credibility is nil.

I found this article reassuring: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/giving-people-more-freedom-whole-point-vaccines/617829/

Yeah, someone linked to that yesterday, it raises some good points. Of course, we have to figure out how to actually get the vaccine into folks' arms before we worry about what comes next. We have a tremendously long road ahead of us just to get there.

COVID is a never before seen monster virus, though. Like, the fact that it's new is why we're in this situation.

I don't really know how this all works, but as I mentioned upthread, this does happen to people after other viruses as well, it's just more rare. It doesn't seem at all surprising to me that a new virus running through a population with no immunity would have more of the same after-affects that are associated with other viruses.

How is this possibly helping your argument that studies/coverage indicating the same can happen with covid are overstated?

― Smokahontas and John Spliff (PBKR), Thursday, January 28, 2021 8:50 AM (nineteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Coverage is making it sound like COVID is some kind of never before seen monster virus that destroys the lungs and hearts of otherwise healthy people even when they have mild or no symptoms.

But not studies, correct?

One thing I find intriguing is how much attention UK media has devoted to long covid compared to other countries. I can't speak for the US, but there's very little about this in Canada, even less in Quebec, and almost nothing in France and Romania. This is gonna sound weird, but… kudos to UK media?

6-month consequences of #COVID-19 in patients discharged from hospital

If you were admitted to a hospital, then your symptoms were severe, not mild or non-existent. People who can't figure that out have spent exactly two second or less thinking about what they are being told.

I've seen plenty about long covid in French media fwiw.

Interesting. My sense is that there have been fewer articles about this in Le Monde and Libération, say, than in The Guardian.

Possibly because our Prime Minister has been looking like death warmed up since he recovered from his bout of the 'rona?

xp that may be, I don't read Libé (though I follow their headlines on social media but that's an algorithmic crapshoot). But I follow a lot of French media on social media & like maybe through France Inter or something like that I keep seeing things about it

like for example https://www.futura-sciences.com/sante/actualites/pandemie-covid-long-sont-personnes-plus-risque-82241/

this is true, I took froggy's question to mean what would happen if you happened to get covid and the vaccine on the same day, in which case you wouldn't have had time to develop an immune response yet

Good to know!

xp

what’s the latest on immunity? this seems promising??!

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/06/1015822/covid-19-immunity-likely-lasts-for-years/

in laws got the fauci ouchy part 1 at dodger stadium last night. they're the reason we're isolating to the extent we have been. absolutely cannot wait to lick some subway poles.

Two applications of 70% alcohol solution immediately prior should make it safe enough to lick any subway poles you find tempting. No need to thank me. It's a service I am happy to perform.

xps to TH iirc this is the case with SARS, they were finding people with B and T cells responding to it like 17 years after the original outbreak

But T cell studies allow for a substantially different, more optimistic, interpretation. In the Singapore study, for example, SARS-CoV-1 reactive T cells were found in SARS patients 17 years after infection. “Our findings also raise the possibility that long lasting T cells generated after infection with related viruses may be able to protect against, or modify the pathology caused by, infection with SARS-CoV-2,”8 the investigators wrote.

Aimless, can I use a mixer (e.g., tonic water) or do I have to drink it straight?

Thx in advance

It should be 150 proof and applied straight. No mixer.

Another good vaccine coming on-stream, from Novavax

Breaking: Novavax Covid vaccine shows 89% efficacy in UK trials. Half the cases on the trial were the new ‘Kent’variant so this is first vaccine to show it is effective against the new more contagious variant

— Fergus Walsh (@BBCFergusWalsh) January 28, 2021

Seemingly only "pretty good" (60% or so) against the SA variant. They're working on boosters for that, though (as are the others)

feels like I'm reading about more contagious strains popping up everywhere. the SA variant does seem worrisome though

I just want to get my first shot

Who's that mutant viral gent
Who ran amok in Kent
Lately it's been overheard in Mayfair

Holy shit, I knew vaccine distribution sucked in Illinois, but was not prepared to see how truly abysmal it is locally. We’re supposed to be into phase 1b, which is supposed to be healthcare workers, frontline workers and people over 65. Our city just sent out an email that said they only have enough for people over the age of 83.

It appears my pessimism is well warranted and June of 2022 is a pipe dream, at best.

I’m just really struggling with the disconnect between what Biden is saying and what we’re hearing locally. Biden says there will be enough to get everyone who wants it vaccinated by the end of the summer. Yet Pritzker said just this week that there is “no way” everyone gets vaccinated by then. One of them has to be wrong.

Depressing af that multiple new more contagious strains and possibly a vaccine resistant one are popping up right when mass vaccinations are starting. Guess they brought back the same writing team for 2021 etc etc

Also: why does it feel like suddenly restrictions are getting loosened in the US just as swathes of Europe are going on lockdown? Isn’t it kind of inevitable that the new strains will be brush fires here too any day? Or is there some reason why not?

amnesia

I don’t know, but I’m feeling more despair than I have in many, many months. After seeing how badly the US has fucked up since mid-March I shouldn’t be at all surprised that the vaccine rollout is also an utter catastrophe and failure on all levels.

I mean mutations were always expected, it was mutating last year too but the variance wasn't that significant in terms of transmissibility mortality so they didn't get as much press. that finally changed, but right now the SA is the only one that they seem to be thinking might need a boost.

tbh if a vaccine is 60% good against the South African, no, that's not great, but it's a good starting point, and I'm assuming the boosters can improve that a bit.

the other strains like the UK strain/etc seem to be well matched by the vaccines. i'm nervous of course but the main thing I am worried about is most countries finding a way to get the vaccines into people's arms, and at least in the US it's nice to see competent people in charge even if we aren't even remotely fucking close to where we should be there, and probably won't be for a good long time.

I think there were questions in the study too about whether 50-60% was the true efficacy against the SA version, as that wasn't the primary thing they were measuring.

i think Biden's end of summer prediction is a wee bit over-optimistic and I kinda want him to tamp down those expectations a bit as I don't have a huge degree of confidence in that (at least not yet). health officials don't seem as bullish on those prospects.

but idk. I think one thing we've learned is predicting this pandemic has been next to impossible. I don't think many of us thought almost a year ago that we'd still be dealing with this shit TO THIS DEGREE a year later. I sure didn't.

I guess I should only blame myself for getting my hopes up. I kinda thought that seeing people actually get vaccinated would represent some sort of light at the end of the tunnel, but it turns out we aren’t even fucking close. Which, sucks, but lesson learned. I’m going to work on not foolishly putting my hope in a vaccine that isn’t going to save us.

I’m feeling more despair

we know

I don't think many of us thought almost a year ago that we'd still be dealing with this shit TO THIS DEGREE a year later.

When it became apparent around May last year that the US federal response was beyond incompetence to become actively harmful, I recalculated. In March I only knew this virus would sweep the world like a brushfire fanned by high winds.

I mean, god forbid I should be doom and gloom in the global pandemic thread. But yeah, if you guys think my pessimism is a bit much, you should see how I feel! I’d prefer a dose of optimism, but I’m just not finding any, what with the constant discovery of new variants, more studies on long term ill effects and the woefully inadequate rollout.

please step away from the information that is making you feel bad

I have mixed feelings. I’m much less afraid of the virus itself than I used to be. Maybe because I’ve seen so many people I know have extremely mild cases and the only harsher cases among people I know were early on. Obviously that’s anecdotal, but it includes even people who are higher risk. The case fatality rate for me or my wife (who just got her first vaccine dose) or my kids is incredibly low. Even for my parents it’s nothing close to cancer. I’m also skeptical of there being a high incidence of permanent damage in otherwise healthy people with mild cases but I could be wrong.

At the same time, it spreads so easily and is deadly enough that we can’t just go about our business, and the combination of the new variants and slow vaccine rollout has left me a bit despairing.

Ok

man half the people in this thread are determined to feel like dogshit no matter what’s going on, huh? probably should not be surprised by that, it’s ilx!

where I live a bunch of cars broke down in the snow and one of them was a pharmacy truck with some techs on board and so they got out of and vaccinated all the folks in cars bc the supply was gonna go bad either way. That’s cool! It’s *amazing* we have a vaccine less than a year after this thing hit the USA! It works against the major new variants! wtf is wrong with you people, the news about all this is mostly incredible.

n.b. I almost died out of nowhere of an unrelated grave surprise illness this summer so it’s great to be here, things aren’t going that bad! There was *zero* plan from the federal government to roll out shots before last Wednesday. It’ll be slow but it will happen. Cmon.

once things really start rolling out I think cases will drop very quickly and we may have a day this year with 0 Covid deaths in the United States. that'll be a pretty big celebration, I reckon.

Deaths will fall precipitously sooner than cases hopefully as the most vulnerable 15% or so of the population reaches full protection

it’s perfectly reasonable to be doom and gloom, but your need to reiterate it four times a day is tiresome and unhelpful. we’re living through it too, you don’t have to convince anyone

that said it’s far more welcome than man alive’s insistent ‘no one *i* know has gotten sick, so this is all overblown’ bullshit

Yeah, sorry. That’s absolutely fair. I’m just running on fumes these days and struggling. I’ll try to fuck off for awhile.

don't worry, jon. i'm with you, i'm frustrated. there are few outlets for it right now, to blow off steam. this continuous, goddamn steam

i just registered zachtbd.com so i guess it's official

No such thing as posting wrong*.

*excl. bigotry

zachtbf.com

Johnson and Johnson vaccine's headline effectiveness 66%. Hmmm.