Enough With The Cutesy Titles, People Are Dead: US Politics January 2021 pt 2

As Paul Kane reminds us, these two headlines happened in the same year https://t.co/YAMemtxLai pic.twitter.com/oITF0pR1sR

— David Nir (@DavidNir) January 26, 2021

I heard a logical sounding argument about Manchin being less of a force of bad than the Republican who would be in his seat otherwise. Since that replacement would probably be actively seeking to do GOP evil instead of not doing egalitarian good or something to that effect. But at least it does mean there is a point that doesn't get reached to have a nominal Dem there.

Also wonder how Garland feels about McConnell after not getting onto Scotus.
A dish of cold revenge reopening the various scandals of a couple of years ago to full investigation would seem really appetising . Probably not entirely neutral or objective though. Hope that wouldn't be enough to stop him pursuing that line of enquiry though.

What earthly use is a Kirsten Sinema? Same source that was arguing there was some positive to Manchin considering the voting trends of his constituency was pointing out that she didn't have anything like the same environment so had far less reason for taking the stances she has.

seems like Kellyanne Conway posted a nude of her daughter Claudia that she'd stolen off the daughter's phone, then Claudia facetimed a friend so the friend could livestream Kellyanne calling cops to the house and requesting they section her daughter, after seeing Claudia posting calls for help in morse code on tiktok?

... Claudia Conway is a minor, fucking hell

Claudia has, over the latter months of 2020, posted footage of her mother verbally abusing her, hitting her, and actively trying to infect her with COVID. In twenty minutes of that livestream, Kellyanne's only & repeated maternal criticism of Claudia is that Claudia "is addicted to" the phone that she uses to broadcast calls for help.

(speculation not facts: the repeated "excuse me! (reframe)" indignant cutting-off tactic maps to Kellyanne's behaviour in press conferences, but in this context rings of hand-me-down abuse. her constant "that didnt happen" statements echo like alcoholism here, feeling a different tone to the ones she made in a formal capacity to the entire world about her government. but oof it all works similarly.)

Has Elizabeth Warren got a role yet. Or is she just fading into the background again.

That’s a good question, Stevolende - I *feel* like she’s up for something but it’s been a long three months and I barely remember now

Mitch folding on this one is good news. It's at least *conceivable* that when the filibuster conversation goes from being an abstract hypothetical to "the minority of republicans are blocking a huge COVID-relief/stimulus-package/also-btw-the-stimulus-includes-eight-hundred-infrastructure-projects-in-west-virginia bill," then there's still a shot at nuking the thing and the Dem majority getting shit done for a year and a half rather than just shuffling towards its own destruction while the country finishes collapsing.

In news that should surprise no one

https://www.npr.org/local/305/2021/01/25/959694007/at-least-38-capitol-police-officers-test-positive-for-c-o-v-i-d-19-since-jan-6-riots?utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR1jjGCsCbb77wmM1gmJ7AEUS66YPrWVDgMasTSfkbTmvr7K5b2AsLPY83s

promises mean nothing in 2021 - do what you have to do today, reassess tomorrow

I agree that filibuster removal ostensibly still being on the table is a good thing but I’m not going to celebrate until it’s gone or until 10-15 Republicans get replaced by their good counterparts from an alternate universe

Regardless of the filibuster it is good that McConnell caved because until he did Republicans still controlled all Senate committees.

Yeah, and that exactly is the value of even useless Democrats in the Senate. Take away Manchin or Sistema and Mitch is still in charge.

it is possible that Manchin, Sistema and others would be amenable to filibuster *reform* which would give them cover and effetively end McConnell's abuse: either by lowering the threshold for debate from 60 votes—down to 40 or 50—or by requiring roll call votes for cloture, which would mean keeping R's present and forcing them to go on record

seems like Kellyanne Conway posted a nude of her daughter Claudia that she'd stolen off the daughter's phone,

This is insane. This is circulating child pornography, and a felony?!

there's no such thing as a felony if you're a powerful Republican

and never, ever any accountability

In fact, all things are justifiable - acceptable even - given the standing of the people involved.

I understand and agree with a lot of the arguments for prison abolition but I keep thinking “if we get rid of prisons altogether, what are we going to do about people like Kellyanne Conway”

Like, I am about 75% down the path of volunteering to be unfairly incarcerated if it means she would also be incarcerated

democratic pickups in 2022.

If Mitch blocks everything the Dems want to do between now and then, that provides them pretty powerful campaign leverage: "all these promises we made, all the things we want to do, Mitch is still blocking them all, so we need even more Dems in the Senate", etc. Also, knock on wood, but 2022 *should* be post-covid and, hopefully, recovering anyway, however slowly or feeble, which gives Dems something else to campaign on, too. "For years, Mitch and his cohort made sure none of the problems in America were addressed, now things are finally getting better but he'd prefer things be as they were before," and so on. But honestly it's hard to think that far ahead.

2022 Senate:

Vacant Seats: PA, OH, NC (all three GOP)
Dem Incumbents: GA (Warnock), NH (Hassan), AZ (Kelly), CO (Bennet), NV (Masto)
GOP Incumbents: FL (Rubio), WI (RoJo)

Has Elizabeth Warren got a role yet. Or is she just fading into the background again.

Lt Gov John Fetterman is going hard for that PA seat. Who is likely to be the GOP challenger?

awesome, that dude rules

Warren will not (and imo should not) leave the Senate without being able to ensure a D replacement. This has been clear for months. Wtf.

Change the climate in Massachusetts, then Warren will be free to take any role that suits her. Deservedly so.

FEtterman is probably my favorite politician at the moment. Love him, his wife, their dog, his weed flag.

I believe the question about Warren was re: Senate committees. (xpost)

Also add 2 years of covid risk to all these mummies:

Feinstein D CA - 87
Grassley R IA - 87
Shelby R AL - 86
Inhofe R OK - 86
Leahy D VT - 80
Bernie - 79
Mitch - 78
Risch R ID - 77
Cardin D MD - 77
King I (lol) ME - 76
Blumenthal D CT - 74
Some safe D trash 76-73
Mitt - 73

I spoke w/@nanwhaley, who is considering a run for the Portman seat, about OH & what Dems need to compete there

What do Ohioans need from Biden? "They need the rescue package."

Do they care about it being bipartisan? "No. No. They want it fast."

More --https://t.co/fr0fn95v6q

— Alex Burns (@alexburnsNYT) January 26, 2021

Unless Democrats can get the economy out of the shitbin, I don't see pickups in 2022.

If I had to make a guess, GOP holds onto the Florida and Wisconsin seats, democrats take one of the three vacant GOP seats, GOP take either the GA or the AZ seat.

Xps to akm - OH, sorry, missed that in the scrum. Carry on.

To man alive I feel like Trump Fatigue alters the equation a bit (cf. Georgia - neither D candidate was a strong contender until the runoffs became a referendum on "sick of this shit" vs. MAGA.)

Georgia also depended on unparalleled enthusiasm and fundraising from Democrats nationwide, demoralized Trumpers/divisions in the GOP, and incredible efforts by organizers outside the official party mechanisms. I guess the third of those things could pay dividends continuing into 2022. Certainly we will no longer have the trump fatigue to help.

FEtterman is probably my favorite politician at the moment. Love him, his wife, their dog, his weed flag.

I keep waiting for the "Fetterman actually sucks" take that must be out there somewhere, but on the surface he seems pretty cool. Smart, funny, suitably gritty.

2022 Senate:

Vacant Seats: PA, OH, NC (all three GOP)
Dem Incumbents: GA (Warnock), NH (Hassan), AZ (Kelly), CO (Bennet), NV (Masto)
GOP Incumbents: FL (Rubio), WI (RoJo)

Trump Fatigue alters the equation a bit

lol it won't in two years

And nothing makes me more pessimistic than hearing dems talk about the favorable map we have in 2022.

tipsy: beard but no mustache, come ON

Smart, funny, suitably gritty.

we should be prepared for Sen. Jim Jordan

If I had to make a guess, GOP holds onto the Florida and Wisconsin seats, democrats take one of the three vacant GOP seats, GOP take either the GA or the AZ seat.

Dems have won every statewide election in WI since Trump's election. they've been close but I feel like a good D candidate will probably win here, especially given what an unparalleled disaster RoJo has been

I'm usually overly optimistic when it comes to stuff like this but 2020 was looked upon as a horrible year by basically everyone and Trump & the Rs played no small part in that, if things are back to normal after 2 years of Dem rule I think that'll really boost their chances. not to mention every R Senator is gonna have to go on record as either betraying their party or their country and I can't see either being good for their electoral chances

I'm very interested in how the SLoP has set herself up. Independent, always there to humanize her partner, on the ground backing causes she cares about, beautiful and fashionable but also responsible, publicizes shopping in thrift stores, raises money by auctioning off her personal projects, managing soc meds for her spouse & herself & their family & building reach + image, always being gracious and grateful to constituents. I also am kind of waiting a bad take but I hope not, I hope they are just that great.

That Kellyanne Conway news is beyond the fucking pale

you know I've always wondered if these people are as horrible in real life as they are in their jobs

SLoP???

Second Lady of Pennsylvania. One of the many likable things about her is that she's embraced the acronym.

xps Back to normal is a tall order

Dems have won every statewide election in WI since Trump's election. they've been close but I feel like a good D candidate will probably win here, especially given what an unparalleled disaster RoJo has been

The issue is just that it's not clear who the candidate is. The only person who's declared is Tom Nelson, who I see no reason to think will be a good candidate -- he got stomped when he ran for Congress in the 8th district. There are actually a lot of people who could run who seem potentially good on paper but it's not easy to knock off an incumbent senator, even one with middling approval ratings, as Leah Vukmir found out.

it's not just middling, he's in the low 30s, and there's a chance he may not even run for re-election. and I don't think the Vukmir comparison really applies, Tammy is broadly popular here, I don't think she ever had a shot. I do agree there doesn't seem to be a decent D candidate in the field right now, though there are a lot of young aspiring Dems who may have a crack at it