And Sleepy Joe Will Get The Credit: US Politics January 2021

nice and relaxed, not worried at all

i've kept this airplane aloft from my passenger seat so often that now I can do it with my eyes closed

https://media1.tenor.com/images/ee0cd4b74b16c0661e2e8891ae0c28cc/tenor.gif?itemid=8304599

Or:

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/6c1ea283-2bdd-4ddb-8e37-ab513278d925

the margins. are slipping rapidly. I hate this. I always tell myself I won’t get my hopes up and I always do

I wouldn't panic too much yet

it's not really known in what order the votes will be counted, coming into this I think most people assumed it would be one of those "red mirage" situations where the GOP was up big early and then mail-ins would be counted and shift the vote blue. this time it looks like the absentees in urban counties were dumped early which is why Warnock/Ossoff were up big to start. now the rural votes are coming in so its tightening. it's all noise at this point, what's important to look at is how the individual counties are doing relative to the presidential election. it appears that Ossoff and Warnock are outperforming Biden by 1-2 points in the big areas. it also looks like the Rs are outperforming Trump in a lot of rural areas, but only just barely. So far it looks good for the Democrats.

Looks pretty over to me. Congratulations to joe manchin, the most powerful person in America.

Perdue just overtook ossoff

the margins. are slipping rapidly. I hate this. I always tell myself I won’t get my hopes up and I always do

Oy vey. You guys.

The needle still tells me we go so no worries

I know the needle is unpleasant but it’s less unpleasant than looking at who has the most votes while ignoring what votes remain to be counted.

You gotta let the needle into your heart.

Xxp about that is not what is happening, I hope that is true

That was a sincere post xp

I’m a needle fan

thank u caek for your statistician sanity

otm abt Manchin, so depressing

thank u caek for your statistician sanity

otm abt Manchin, so depressing

he's basically gonna be the Lieberman of the Biden era

I am def gonna enjoy the internal GOP deathmatch

Alfred's very much right. I'm only paying a tiny bit of attention to the "right now" and most of my attention to the '80s horror doc on Shudder.

Here's the story right now:

1. Black turnout looks, frankly, phenomenal.
2. Perdue/Loeffler are approaching Trump %s of the vote in a lot of deep red rural counties, but turnout there isn't anything special.
3. It's getting harder to see a path for either R, but esp. Loeffler.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021

My strongly held view is that the needles are greatly overstating the uncertainty at this point

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) January 6, 2021

Manchin Shmanchin, bask in the possibility of Biden not having McConnell as a built-in excuse for doing nothing.

he's basically gonna be the Lieberman of the Biden era

Manchin has very much NOT voted like Lieberman.

Also you might not have to donate organs to keep Breyer alive

God imagine how excited to retire Breyer is right now

CHEROKEE COUNTY NUMBERS: 87% in

~68,000+ votes Perdue
~32,000 votes Ossoff

Ossoff outperforming Biden.

Donald Trump netted nearly 58,000 votes out of Cherokee County in November.#gapol #gasen

— Anthony Michael Kreis (@AnthonyMKreis) January 6, 2021

this was a very important county for Republicans so definitely good news here

thus far it doesn't look like much good news for Loeffler and Perdue, they seem to consistently be running 1-2 points behind where they need to be, and I don't think big polling errors (like what happened in Miami-Dade) are very likely to just show up on a statewide election w/ 65% in

https://today.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/V3A3278.CR2_605.jpg

Breyer in Force lightning pose.

xps Alfred I stand corrected, plz substitute "obstructionist"

Manchin will do what he can to be the last Democratic senator of West Virginia, whereas Joe Lieberman did his best to be the biggest asshole Dem-in-name-only of the Northeast.

Looks like the polls were pretty much exactly right this time.

still am worried that the republicans are going to win these races, they are so close

Trump tomorrow: "I told them to cut the $2000 checks, folks, I told them"

still am worried that the republicans are going to win these races, they are so close

The biggest dump of remaining Democratic vote is the ~170k DeKalb County in-person early vote, which we expect to break for Ossoff by an 85-15 margin

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) January 6, 2021

Yeah there’s gonna be a lot of heavily Democrat places getting counted in a few hours. Perdue and Lowflelrler need to be up way more than they are now

here you go, dan s
https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fgraciousgal.files.wordpress.com%2F2011%2F09%2Flittleenginethatcould.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

Manchin will do what he can to be the last Democratic senator of West Virginia

Alfred can you parse this? Sorry for being dense, it's been a long day. You think he will vote party line?

He mostly has post-Obama and not petulantly.

he voted to impeach -- a big deal

meanwhile uh

I've seen enough. Raphael Warnock (D) defeats Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) in GA's special Senate runoff. #GASEN

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021

Wasserman’s seen enough of Warnock/Loeffler

Was just about to say, can’t be long before the networks start calling warnock. The other one is tougher because absentee votes could in principle move the margin under 0.5 which means a recount. But I don’t think either result is in doubt.

Manchin seems like he can be bought off with pork, a valuable quality in a spineless centrist.

Kornacki already hinting that Warnock's got this.

happy if the majority of remaining votes are in Atlanta. Ossoff and Warnock both winning would be so great

Among the many terrible/dangerous McCain stances: opposing pork.

so tasty and less dangerous than red meat

Manchin seems like he can be bought off with pork, a valuable quality in a spineless centrist.

One can hope

From a ways upthread

Never has a group of people made so much incessant, ever-present, whinypants noise about how they're being silenced

Like, if you're the silent majority, (a) there should be more of you and (b) you should shut the fuck up for a cotton-pickin second

I’m not at all optimistic about the biden administration but I am extremely optimistic about what this does to the GOP for the next couple of years.

as Robyn Hitchcock sang long ago: "the silent majority's/the crime of the century"