Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

Really starting to understand why you get the grief you do, milo. More fool me, I guess.

as above, when somebody is deemed bad then absolutely nothing that can be said or done to them is considered off-limits

I didn't say I didn't find it fair, but even if I didn't, I don't have a choice in the matter

Well I think snitching is cool but I’m not about to say that on the internet

Oops

Snitching to OSHA is good, snitching to the LAPD is not

snitching to the referees always bad

Has there been any credible info on the superstrain claimed by the uk govt yet

i was going to link an article on 'unherd' i just read but then ran across this on their front page and... what the hell

https://unherd.com/2020/12/the-inconvenient-truth-about-transwomen/

so uh, not sure about the 'credibility' of this site

Worst Colin Cowherd spinoff

they're saying the new strain of the virus isn't necessarily more lethal or resistant to vaccines. there's also questions about whether it truly is 70% more transmissable.

but with any new development, always wait for more info t ocome out before assuming preliminary reports are gospel

The only names I recognized on the list of writers for UnHerd are Sarah Ditum, Julie Bindel, and Suzanne Moore, so I think I’ll pass.

Unherd is basically a "provide balance by publishing both left-wing and right-wing essays without editorial guidance" blog, started by the bloke who used to run ConservativeHome

Matthew Crawford wrote an incredibly boring book about the spiritual value of manual labor

Mike Rowe but liberalish

the new strain of the virus does worry me too but I haven't seen anything either way about how the vaccine does or does not interact with it

there’s no evidence that the vaccines that have been developed interact any differently with it iirc

Is the U.K. variant some kind of new supervirus?
No. It’s just one variation among many that have arisen as the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has spread around the world. Mutations arise as the virus replicates, and this variant — known as B.1.1.7 — has acquired its own distinctive set of them.

What is unusual about it?
The variant came to the attention of researchers in December, when it began to turn up more frequently in samples from parts of southern England. It turned out to have been collected from patients as early as September.

When researchers took a close look at its genome, they were struck by the relatively large number of mutations — 23, all told — that it had acquired. Most mutations that arise in the coronavirus are either harmful to the virus or have no effect one way or another. But a number of the mutations in B.1.1.7 looked as if they could potentially affect how the virus spread.

Is it more contagious than other viruses?
It appears so. In preliminary work, researchers in the U.K. have found that the virus is spreading quickly in parts of southern England, displacing a crowded field of other variants that have been circulating for months.

However, a virus lineage becoming more common is not proof that it spreads faster than others. It could grow more widespread simply through luck. For instance, a variant might start out in the middle of a crowded city, where transmission is easy, allowing it to make more copies of itself.

Still, the epidemiological evidence gathered so far from England does seem to suggest that this variant is very good at spreading. In places where it has become more common, the overall number of coronavirus cases is spiking. Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, estimates that the variant has an increased transmission rate of 50 to 70 percent compared to other variants in the United Kingdom.

Does it cause more severe disease?
There is no strong evidence that it does, at least not yet. But there is reason to take the possibility seriously. In South Africa, another lineage of the coronavirus has gained one particular mutation that is also found in B.1.1.7. This variant is spreading quickly through coastal areas of South Africa. And in preliminary studies, doctors there have found that people infected with this variant carry a heightened viral load — a higher concentration of the virus in their upper respiratory tract. In many viral diseases, this is associated with more severe symptoms.

Where did this unusual variant come from?
That is now a question of intense debate. One possibility is that the variant gained its array of new mutations inside a special set of hosts.

In a typical infection, people pick up the coronavirus and become infectious for a few days before showing symptoms. The virus then becomes less abundant in the body as the immune system marshals a defense. Unless patients suffer a serious case of Covid-19, they typically clear the virus completely in a few weeks at most.

But sometimes the virus infects people with weak immune systems. In their bodies, the virus can thrive for months. Case studies on these immunocompromised people have shown that the virus can accumulate a large number of mutations as it replicates in their bodies for a long period of time.

Over time, researchers have found, natural selection can favor mutant viruses that can evade the immune system. Researchers have also suggested that the evolution of the variant might have been additionally driven by medicine given to such patients. Some mutants might be able to withstand drugs such as monoclonal antibodies.

Other scientists have suggested that the virus could have gained new mutations by spreading through an animal population, like minks, before re-entering the human population. Such “animal reservoirs” have become a focus of intense interest as more animal infections have been detected.

Is the variant already circulating in the U.S.?
Not yet, as far as anyone knows. But that does not mean it hasn’t already reached the United States. British scientists have established a much stronger system to monitor coronaviruses for new mutations. It’s conceivable that someone traveling from the United Kingdom has brought it with them. Now that the world knows to look for the variant, it may turn up in more countries.

Will the variant render the new vaccines ineffective?
No. Most experts doubt that it will have any great impact on vaccines, although it’s not yet possible to rule out any effect.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has authorized two vaccines, one from Moderna and the other from Pfizer and BioNTech. Both vaccines create immunity to the coronavirus by teaching our immune systems to make antibodies to a protein that sits on the surface of the virus, called spike. The spike protein latches onto cells and opens a passageway inside. Antibodies produced in response to the vaccines stick to the tip of the spike. The result: The viruses can’t get inside.

It is conceivable that a mutation to a coronavirus could change the shape of its spike proteins, making it harder for the antibodies to gain a tight grip on them. And B.1.1.7’s mutations include eight in the spike gene. But our immune systems can produce a range of antibodies against a single viral protein, making it less likely that viruses can easily escape their attack. Right now, experts don’t think that the variant will be able to evade vaccines. To confirm that, researchers at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research are analyzing the changes to the structure of its spike protein.

Dr. Moncef Slaoui, the head scientific adviser to Operation Warp Speed, the federal effort to deliver a vaccine to the American public, said that the new variant reported in Britain was unlikely to affect the efficacy of a vaccine.

At some point — “some day, somewhere” — a variant of the virus may make the current vaccine ineffective, he said, but the chance of that happening with this vaccine is very low. Nevertheless, he said, “we have to remain absolutely vigilant.”

But Kristian Andersen, a virologist at Scripps Research Institute, thinks it is too early to dismiss the risk to vaccines. If the U.K. variant evolved to evade the immune system in immunocompromised patients, those adaptations might help it avoid vaccines. The vaccines would not become useless, but they would become less effective. Fortunately, experiments are underway to test that possibility.

“We don’t know, but we’ll know soon,” Dr. Andersen said.

from NY Times

Ty

yes

my cynical take is that there are a number of variants in play and while this one might have some distinct characteristics, the spread of it is opportunistically being latched on to by UK leaders as evidence of factors beyond their control, when factors that could have controlled spread are within their control

or if I’m more sympathetic to them, are perceived as within their control. they can’t seem to control much of anything

fwiw a variant that pretty obviously came from company leadership who had traveled to their meat processing plant was traced back to a likely single source earlier this year https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/genetic-science-coronavirus-outbreak-iowa/

i'm waiting to hear sanpaku's take

Blaise Pascal was otm all along: 'All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone.'

also, can we avoid making any thread about things we worry about our peers having opinions on about the discourse

I have a pretty copacetic friend group and my coworkers are generally cool but there are things in more traditional social spaces (read: not people on the internet yelling at each other) like work where I have to reserve judgment outside of how things affect me directly. I’ve had an older (although not that old!) coworker do something that could be perceived as racist and just said “hey, don’t do that here”, I have family members who do jobs I don’t necessarily agree with, and I am sure some of my peers disapprove of some of my choices. In the grand scheme of things, no one cares

the best gift you can give yourself in life is thinking about an issue and thinking “I do not care” or “I have no opinion” or simply nod and shrug. The reason we seek out like-minded people is because in normal times, we encounter all kinds of people irl who hold all kinds of funny, weird, or even offensive ideas and we just deal. People venting on the internet? Vent if you want, but ignore it when it’s useful for your own well-being

There's definitely a temptation to believe that the UK government is playing up the virulence of the new strain, because it's led by an egotistical oaf who desperately needs people to like him and who only a few days previously was claiming it would be "inhuman" for the government to "cancel Christmas" and "Have a jolly good Christmas but be jolly careful" hur hur hur. However it's more likely that they've been completely blindsided by the figures for infection rates that have been coming at them.

why not both?

Possibly, but I don't think they're smart enough to stage a misdirection stunt like that.

I mean, the eastern Iowa outbreak I linked the article about, it could have easily been seized upon for public outrage or denial of local issues but wasn’t because
1. Current governor thinks meat processing industries are beyond question due to economic forces and political implications when it comes to donors
2. To a lesser extent, the ethnic biases involved

my guess is if an outbreak happened any time near an article in the press about people moving here for a lower cost of living during work from home times, there’s a possibility fingers would be pointed

I think there's also the powerful lesson that people aren't thinking about you or your thoughts on any given subject at any time. We all know this and willfully ignore it all the time, after all we're here, but I know a reasonable number of people who don't have social media, don't post on message boards, and are informed and happy people.

Do you know how many tweets some of us see in a day? And you know the only tweet I remember?

It's the one where the guy says that Winnie the Pooh's real name is Wincent the Poop.

Anyway.

hmm not a good extrapolation but I’ll take it

Heard a lot of ambulances in LA today. Extremely bad scene here.

more likely that they've been completely blindsided by the figures

this is not possible, but yes they might have just reached a point of no longer being able to pretend the figures don't exist, rather than pretending the new strain is wildly virulent

I don't have or use twitter ask me anything

who is the man with the master plan?

Ppl think printing more money will solve all our problems... Excessive monetary growth is a leading cause of #inflation ! #keepdemandincheck

— Inflation Nation (@InflaNation) March 30, 2016

ok so here is a good example of the discourse flipping in real time (when I first encountered the original tweet in this layer the reception was nothing but positive; this is one day later)

This pandemic has really given rise to a new genre of financially-stable work-from-home urbanite who regularly gets UberEats and InstaCart dropped at their doorstep getting clout by mercilessly shaming individuals whose government long ago abandoned them https://t.co/T4o0swXJed

— Chelsea Fagan (@Chelsea_Fagan) December 22, 2020

(in the replies you can see the discourse flipping *again* in real time, in case you thought this last layer of the post was reasonable)

I should think this observation would tend to argue against your contention that when 'the discourse' proposes a position, nobody disagrees with it.

it's that nobody disagrees with it *at the time*; the acceptable-to-agree-with layer just moves forward, until it in turn is replaced

I don't imagine everyone is connected to Twitter all the time or is always free to comment instantaneously. But I'm not on Twitter, so this is a surmise.

neither am I, I actually fell asleep (a common occurrence anymore) and woke up to this, which just makes it even harder to keep up with what the acceptable opinions are

To me, this basically means shit's complicated and people tend to turn against each other during a deadly pandemic and economic crisis, and people on all sides are capable of expressing gross opinions on public platforms. It isn't that basic morality and safety are constantly shifting. It's more that we are living in a sick and frayed society that pits everyone against everyone else and then amplifies the most combative takes for fun.

Isn't that how twitter works? Everyone gets on their soapbox and competes for attention by being the most intellectual superior person to see what everyone else (those going along with the pack) does not? So people just keep flocking from one soapbox to the next and it constantly morphs the Discourse as the marketing campaigns of twitter social philosophers look for new innovative ways to appear the most enlightened and unique? Just a constant rush to be ahead of the game; pulling stuff out of their ass and shaming others into adopting their smartest-person-in-the-room truthbomb tweet as the most forward thinking?

Some of us just post bad jokes and link to stuff

Twitter was more innocuous when tweets were limited to 140 characters and the "tweetstorm/tweet thread" wasn't a thing.

(in the replies you can see the discourse flipping *again* in real time,

Yesterday you said it's the same people changing their rhetoric from one day to the next. I only clicked once, but it seems to be a whole bunch of people saying different things, none of which anyone is required to read.

"Um actually, you're not so great yourself; AKA I've attached wheels and a gas motor to the goalposts: a thread"