GET OUT: US politics November 2020

I don't have it in front of me, but there was a recent New Yorker article that played out how the SDNY investigations might fade away. Let me see if I can find it.

Jeff Davis moved to Canada until Johnson pardoned him

2xpost Yeah, That's Edward Norton's poker analogy. He is bluffing because his hand ain't shit.

Taking shit away from the guy in charge of a giant treasonous army is the equivalent of a fine. Did Robert E Lee die poor and alone?

here's the passage I had in mind:

Joe Lockhart, who served as Bill Clinton’s press secretary, suggested to me that, if Biden narrowly wins, a chaotic interregnum could provide an opportunity for a “global settlement” in which Trump will concede the election and “go away” in exchange for a promise that he won’t face charges anywhere, including in New York. Lockhart argued that New York’s legal authorities are not just lawyers but also politicians, and might be convinced that a deal is in the public interest. He pointed out that a global-settlement arrangement was made, “in microcosm,” at the end of the Clinton Presidency, when the independent counsel behind the Monica Lewinsky investigation agreed to wrap things up if Clinton paid a twenty-five-thousand-dollar fine, forfeited his law license, and admitted that he had testified falsely under oath. “So there’s some precedent,” Lockhart said, although he admitted that such a deal would anger many Americans.

and before someone pipes up and says "but there are Jeff Davis high schools and Lee Roads, etc" that stuff happened way way after the Civil War

Robert E Lee as far as I can tell faced absolutely zero punishment

vs

Taking shit away from the guy in charge of a giant treasonous army is the equivalent of a fine.

xpost - I mean, not going to say that's how it will play out, but these are the things that stick in mind, especially since much of the rest of the article's predictions for the election have played out.

Oh my god re: Michigan/Minnesota

Joe Lockhart is a communications consultant and not a lawyer, why am I supposed to listen to his opinion on what SDNY will do?? He also worked for Facebook, lol

xpost That's splitting hairs. Those were the people at the absolute top of a literally seditious treasonous army that cost hundreds of thousands of lives and almost destroyed the US, and whatever repercussion they faced was weak. Just looking it up, by 1865 Robert E Lee was the president of Washington college.

xpost - I'm not saying that's how it will play out, just something that stuck out to me with the article, which is essentially just a compilation of a bunch of people playing out the next few months.

A book Alfred recommended years ago about the Supreme Court after the Civil War really highlighted the position the US government was in. They couldn't occupy the South, because the south was part of the United States, and as the South was part of the United States, then they were entitled to the same representation in Congress and government as every other state. Which is why all those assholes could be a wrench in the gears for years after the Civil War.

That's splitting hairs. Those were the people at the absolute top of a literally seditious treasonous army that cost hundreds of thousands of lives and almost destroyed the US, and whatever repercussion they faced was weak. Just looking it up, by 1865 Robert E Lee was the president of Washington college.

Yes. Different states and different regions of the country had different responses to the treasonous actions of the Confederates. This same college in Virginia, (which, if you recall, was a slave state) is where the bones of Robert E Lee's horse are kept. You started out this by saying that Lee faced no repercussions, though, and that's wrong. We bury our dead on land owned by him. That's not nothing. It was likely seen as a huge insult to him.

He does not hold the cards for that kind of deal. They don’t need to make a deal to get him out of office. He may overstay his welcome but he’ll get removed anyway. Well I guess the only card he holds is that he can make the covid situation continue to get worse for 2 months and then lay it at Biden’s door.

Likely that he’s got people trying to make backchannel negotiations with Biden as we speak. Whether Biden would bite or just decide to let him stew is another question.

Even if he gets some kind of legal clearance, hard to see how he keeps his giant debts from coming due. But I'm sure there are restructuring options, or just another bankruptcy, whatever. I think he's marginally more likely to be held to account than your average rich white guy because there's so much scrutiny. But only marginally more likely. Worst-case scenario for him is probably some fines that he'll find a way to not pay and some kind of probation or suspended sentence. Our system does not send many rich white men to jail. Even if they're only fake-rich.

^^ otm

Once again though, you can't be pardoned for crimes you haven't been convicted of yet, let alone crimes you haven't been accused of yet. It's kind of a catch-22 for Trump, because hypothetically speaking if he were to try to negotiate some sort of non-prosecution agreement, that alone is a huge red flag that there are significant crimes for which he should be prosecuted. That's why he's most likely panic bluffing right now, there is no way out that does not leave him exposed.

The debt issue is something separate, but as the adage goes, that's a bigger problem for the idiots that lent him millions.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

he's fucked and he and his kids know it

xpost, that was for the panic bluffing post

Josh, I want to thank you for posting that Gary Gulman clip - that bit is one of my favorite things ever

Is it weird that I don't give the slightest shit what happens to him after he leaves office? There are so much more daunting things to worry about coming into a Biden presidency.

I care because, as pointed out upthread, it would be nice to know that there are consequences for this. Otherwise we are just setting the table for Trump 2.0, who will pull the same shit with a team that's a lot less bumbling and stupid.

if you're fucked and your kids know it, crap your pants
*plop plop*

there's plenty of things to worry about, to be fair. but i kind of agree there need to be consequences. . . but like, you could probably spend 4-8 years trying to unfuck all the stuff he's fucked

The MI/MN thing is exactly the pathetic crap I would expect from the elite strike force of Rudy and Sidney. Shame I had to read it on the Powerline blog, this should be big news.

i’m pretty convinced that trump only cares about this insofar as he wants to stay one step ahead of the law, the tax man and his creditors, and the presidency is the easiest way to do that.

i do think he will end up paying consequences. not the ones we’d all like, but life will be harder for him.

Two sources tell CNN there are discussions currently underway with the President about inviting Republican state legislators from Pennsylvania to the White House.

It's not clear if those invitations have been extended yet, but President Trump has expressed interest in doing so as he tries to insert himself into the vote certification process.

This would be another brazen step on the heels of Trump meeting with lawmakers from Michigan this afternoon. The deadline for counties in Pennsylvania to certify their totals is Monday.

the fuckin' balls on this guy. it's a bit less complicated than Michigan as Penn seems less prone to Michigan's recent fuckery, but...he's just doing this out in the open.

and right after that....LOL

A GOP Senate source told CNN that the combination of Rudy Giuliani’s news conference yesterday and the President meddling in the Michigan election process has some GOP senators reconsidering their silence.

This source says most had hoped that Trump’s tirade would have worked itself out by now, but his actions in the last 24 hours make that hope seem more and more distant.

The source didn’t want to speak on the record because of the sensitivity of the topic.

This source said that a handful of GOP senators are talking about whether and how to interject in a way that will be most effective with the President.

There is some talk of trying to talk to the President and trying to implore him to go out on a high note by touting wins in the House, and helping win the two outstanding Georgia seats — not to mention taking credit for the vaccine movement and other accomplishments.

The source emphasized, however, that this is not a leadership position right now – more rank and file Republicans.

Remember: Trump has refused to concede the race and blocked his administration from taking any of the administrative steps typically taken in a transfer of power. This includes allowing the General Services Administration to declare that there is a president-elect — a move that triggers the transition process.

tHe SeNsItIvItY oF tHe ToPiC

Reconsidering their silence, you say? Damn, harsh!

I've been wondering if Biden might be privately talking to some of these turds. Graham may be a snake, but he's been Biden's buddy in the past, and Mitch hasn't said shit, but apparently he and Biden had a good working relationship. It would certainly be weird if Biden *wasn't* privately reaching out to them, imo.

I mean, Biden has been strategically silent, too.

Even the doom and gloom crowd here seems to have a shocking amount of faith in US jurisprudence that I just do not share.

part of it might also be wounded pride, in the past Trump helped them out by doing the whole flimsy plausible deniability thing, but he's now just brazenly calling people up and telling them to illegally change the results of the election without even putting a veil on it. probably chafes them that he's making their job harder, their job being "not upsetting Trump's asshole cart"

I mean, the dude knows he might go to jail if he loses. he knows he won't be if he's President. gee, wonder why he's trying to illegally remain President.

i just need Dec 14 to be here, and right after, Jan 20. i can't deal with the daily anger at this shit. I don't care if it won't work. it SHOULDN'T BE HAPPENING AT ALL.

i haven't had much faith in the GOP in years, but man, having to report to a Black President for 8 years really chafed them to the degree that they've ratcheted up their democratic backsliding tolerance.

i grew up in Vicksburg (which, bc it fell on July 4th, didn’t celebrate the holiday until after WW2) and I feel comfortable saying the U.S. didn’t go Far Enough.

I've been wondering if Biden might be privately talking to some of these turds. Graham may be a snake, but he's been Biden's buddy in the past, and Mitch hasn't said shit, but apparently he and Biden had a good working relationship. It would certainly be weird if Biden *wasn't* privately reaching out to them, imo.

There's been some idle chatter from the otherwise pretty darn quiet Biden team that there's been some backchannel stuff -- Mitch wasn't mentioned, but that, too, could be strategic.

they gonna poison Trump's Big Mac?

Of course they're talking, they're all buddies.

Alberta's plugged in and I have no doubt about this

Just FYI, after 48 hours of high-level conversations with Michigan Rs & Ds, it's clear the results will stand. Joe Biden will receive the state's 16 electoral votes. There is no alternative under MI statute. This Trump/Michigan GOP meeting is a sideshow on par w/ Rudy's presser.

— Tim Alberta (@TimAlberta) November 20, 2020

this is why I wanted Trump to die of COVID

I have no doubt about it either, to be clear. but the fact that this visit was allowed to be set up with zero noise from the GOP and, frankly, way too little noise from Democrats, is pissing me off.

to Biden's credit, he and his lawyers have been attacking Trump's actions on a daily basis

On another note, how's that "demand letter" the Dems sent to Emily Murphy going so far? I assume she showed up first thing this morning to testify openly and honestly right? We just haven't heard because she is still sharing so much info that there simply hasn't been a moment to report anything, right?

They should ask her again.

"Hi, it's the Democrats calling again. Just wanted to make sure you got our previous message and that it didn't get lost in the shuffle. Anyway, just following up. Hope you're doing well. Touch base soon."