2008 Primaries Thread

Yeah, but the opposite could be just as valid because of "recent trends in VP nominations"

speaking of Kerry/Edwards, have you guys read this?:

Kerry talked with several potential picks, including Gephardt and Edwards. He was comfortable after his conversations with Gephardt, but even queasier about Edwards after they met. Edwards had told Kerry he was going to share a story with him that he'd never told anyone else—that after his son Wade had been killed, he climbed onto the slab at the funeral home, laid there and hugged his body, and promised that he'd do all he could to make life better for people, to live up to Wade's ideals of service. Kerry was stunned, not moved, because, as he told me later, Edwards had recounted the same exact story to him, almost in the exact same words, a year or two before—and with the same preface, that he'd never shared the memory with anyone else. Kerry said he found it chilling, and he decided he couldn't pick Edwards unless he met with him again. When they did, Kerry tried to get a better personal feel for his potential number two; as rivals for national office since 2000, shortly after Edwards had entered the Senate, the two men hadn't spent a lot of time together. Kerry also wanted a specific reassurance. He asked Edwards for a commitment that if he was chosen and the ticket lost, Edwards wouldn't run against him in 2008. Edwards agreed "absolutely," as Kerry recalled him saying. If Kerry had shared this at the time, I would have told him what I did later: it was naive to think he could rely on a promise like that. Unlike Joe Lieberman, who'd been plucked from relative obscurity by Gore, Edwards had made his own mark in the primaries. He was ambitious—and if he saw his chance the next time, he was likely to go for it.

On the day the Edwards pick was made public, Edwards and I talked for the first time since I had informed him of our decision to work for Kerry and he had reacted angrily. He said he knew I'd helped get him on the ticket and he was grateful. I told him that I welcomed the possibility that we might be friends again, but that wasn't the reason for my preference. I believed it was the right move for Kerry. Kerry's relationship with Edwards would sour after the election—and mine would simply fade away. When Elizabeth discovered she had breast cancer, John and Teresa reached out to help the Edwardses find the best doctors they could. Marylouise and I called—but afterward, never heard from John again. Maybe we shouldn't have expected to. Kerry told me that the Edwardses simply stopped returning calls or talking to him and Teresa. Within months, Edwards started preparing for a bid in 2008. Kerry said that he wished he'd never picked Edwards, that he should have gone with his gut.

...

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1626498-1,00.html

This is an interesting thought, too, but I'm skeptical. Maybe the press will turn against Obama, but (a) I don't think it will and (b) even if it did, I don't think it will hurt him as much as you might fear. Obama's power doesn't come from an adoring press core (but, cf, see J. McCain), it comes from his amazing grace and power as a speaker. That's what is so special about him. That and he's an innovator in terms of campaigning skills. So I'm not as worried about this as Kevin Drum apparently is.

Yes, I read that. It really makes Edwards look opportunistic and just bad.

which was my gut feeling about his populism to begin with

xpost re Obama backlash -- when you need to pull in a blog post by James Wolcott as evidence of a trend, you're kinda reaching.

hi guys i just drop buy wondering if you all could illustrate a tidy resume of whats up with say clinton, obama and why not mccain on the following themes

* Health and social mission
* Environment and Sustainable Development
* Management of the state and economy
* Education, Family and Human Development
* Future of us politics

ban Sebastien

xpost -- no robots?

Wow. Edwards and Santorum enjoying some quality time with their dead sons.

LOL. She hais crazy, bugged-out eyes.

I used to like McKinney, and even Zell Miller, but something crazy happened to Georgia Democrats.

SPEAKING of Santorum, what the hell is he thinking tonight, I wonder -- seeing George Allen up there introducing McCain and him all 'but I'M the real conservative ex-Senator! fuck you!'

I used to like McKinney, and even Zell Miller, but something crazy happened to Georgia Democrats.

otm

hi guys i just drop buy wondering if you all could illustrate a tidy resume of whats up with say clinton, obama and why not mccain on the following themes

try the internet

I'm a bit tired to tackle all of Sebastian's post, (n.1) but as to this item

Management of the . . . economy

I'd say it's an easy choice (for me). Obama and Clinton favor progressive taxing of upper-income earners and would target any stimulus to the sector that really can stimulate the economy (working-class people, who actually would use any stimulus funds to pay for goods, thus injecting that money back into the economy, and stimulating it).

By contrast, McCain -- when he has economic ideas at all (he's candidly admitted that he lacks an interest in, and a deep knowledge of, the economy) -- says that spending cuts stimulate the econony, and former Sen. Phil Gramm, not known for his compassion on economic issues, is one of McCain's top advisors (I can dig up some choice Gramm stuff later). Also, one of his few sensible economic positions -- opposing the Bush tax cuts -- is now part of his reinvention of himself (he now says he only opposed the cuts because there weren't equivalent spending cuts, which is something he certainly didn't say (or even imply among his reasons) at the time).

Long story short: There are very good reasons to believe, on policy and other grounds, that either Obama or HRC is make a better manager of the economy than would McCain.

_______________________________
(n.1) However, I don't think he should be run off. We need more conservative voices around here. Real debate strengthens the mind.

"He," in my footnote, is Sebastian.

re: o backlash

"Here's the thing. My parents remember this kind of fervor for John F. Kennedy. I remember it to a slightly lesser degree for Bill Clinton - who, by the way, is still a rockstar, still draws fans who want to touch him and have him sign their bras, and can still hold a room of his supporters riveted for two hours with just his voice. I've seen it happen. It is, actually, a little unnerving."

but wait there's more

Mccain believes in supply-side/voodoo-/reaganomics.

Any more questions?

hahaha oh ZELL MILLER, how we forget you, you who reminds us of such a bad period in all our lives

You might forget him, but Zell Miller & Co. had the last laugh that year. Oh, how I fondly remember those halcyon days of late October 2004 ("Zogby says Kerry is almost a shoe-in!," "I can feel a change in the air," "Bush will lose this election").

i got hillz followed narrowly by b. hussein obama

lol huckabee didn't even appear on my list

OMG, Obama's middle name is Hussein!?! I'm changing my vote.

Obama and Clinton favor progressive taxing of upper-income earners and would target any stimulus to the sector that really can stimulate the economy (working-class people, who actually would use any stimulus funds to pay for goods, thus injecting that money back into the economy, and stimulating it).

Theoretical at best.

I would be happier if one of the candidates would say we need market correction before we can even consider any sort of stimulus package. In no circumstance should we help someone who enters a speculative market when they could not afford to do so or the financial institutions that opened the door for them.

Theoretical at best.

What do you mean by this?

(Do you mean that the candidates' economic plans are theoretical at best, or my description of those plans is too theoretical, and thus inaccurate?)

I would be happier if one of the candidates would say we need market correction before we can even consider any sort of stimulus package. In no circumstance should we help someone who enters a speculative market when they could not afford to do so or the financial institutions that opened the door for them.

Daniel wasn't even talking about housing/foreclosures here. You're conflating two different issues.

That's right.

the themes in my post were the themes of our "debate of the chiefs" televised extravaganza, i was sort of posting for contrast or something, i mean, sustainable development? anyone heard a word of it .. i havent! from watching ok tv of a foreign coverage of us election pov idksddc,bvfsf,n

Not sure about all the "Sustainable Development" issues. McCain, I believe, says that global warming is a real threat requiring change. He sponsored a bill to cut emissions, I think, years ago, which was defeated, but later drew criticism for supporting a more tepid GOP bill.

I'm working from vague memory here, tho. Someone else here can correct me if I'm mistaken.

well right winger radio says he "believes in the global warming hoax"

Right. Example of Conservative Scientist attacking McCain for his 2004 climate-change Congressional Hr'gs.

Thing about all the McCain-related bitching is that it's primarily from (using Dr. Bob Altermeyer's def) your standard rightwing-authoritarian follower-types. In other words, they'll fall in line with whatever "strong leader" is defined for them.

So that's 28-30% of the vote secured for McCain already.

A longer piece on the same subject (McCain's 2004 position on global warming).

Oh, yeah. I have no doubt that -- when push comes to shove -- the right wing will fall in line behind McCain. Especially if HRC is the Democratic nominee.

I know some say differently now. Words, words, words.

I think SOME of the right wing will stay home. But I wouldn't get overconfident yet

also while I find it hard to believe talk radio won't come around, they're hammering McCain so much that it's a bit difficult to see how they'll change courses

Words, words, words.

Lots of sabre-rattling now. They'll come around.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/02/07/60minutes/main3804268.shtml

Everything we know (and might say) now is going to change after the conventions.

"...Whoever wins this Democratic primary...they're the toughest, baddest candidate on the block."

eeeh, relatively speaking, but kinda true.

(grahmor aside)

obama at noon not 11 say the friends who work at key arena

Obama campaign says "doors open at 11" for Key Arena event.

Go there with yer cameras. We want pics, dammit, and not just the usual wire services.

How many folks here have blown out a lunch for a campaign event? The only time i can think of doing so was when Ralph Nader visited Ann Arbor sometime in 2000, and we sat around in the theater for an extra 30-60 'coz he was delayed.

http://www.glumbert.com/media/romneyarnold

I'm debating whether to go down to the Obama-rama tomorrow. I have a meeting at that time, but it's just a school thing that I can easily skip out on.

Jay-Z merch at Easy Street should fly tomorrow

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2004171450_clinton08m.html

RON SIMS, ET TU?

No mattah, I'm kinda happy to see Hillary cutting out some bullshit in her appearances. (Bill being in Tacoma helps) She's sharpening herself. Although I'll hold that thought until Obama at noon tomorrow.

No endorsement of Hillary from Gov. Gregoire yet

HMMMM

lolz Ann Coulter on "The Today Show." Matt Lauer is soooooooo in love with her.