GET OUT: US politics November 2020

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmGj27yUcAEuqrH?format=png&name=900x900

I have no idea what’s going to happen in Arizona but my money would be on Biden based on what I’ve read.

It is fun to see the numbers change on the scraper, but as long as Trump's lawsuits keep failing dismally to make any kind of a ripple in the process I'll be content to let the process wind slowly to its conclusion and see what it spits out when the votes are all in.

trump only up by 63k in pa with more philly ballots to come

just fyi to you guys, the scraper is using the NYT/Upshot API*. You can easily follow along on the NYT election page.

*is it really a scraper when you have API access? Back in my days, scraping meant you had to employ some creative uh data collection services.

i want a fast result as I want to speed up America wiping its collective ass with Trump's face

lead in pa below 60k now

http://a-static.besthdwallpaper.com/zootopia-blykste-slothmore-tapetai-2560x2048-11897_33.jpg

http://www.a-static.besthdwallpaper.com/zootopia-blykste-slothmore-tapetai-2560x2048-11897_33.jpg

ok

surprised bucks county is only narrowly for biden. guess it's bigger than new hope.

I love thinking of how extra miserable it has be for people around trump atm

i'm putting music on, i can't keep staring at this screen

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Assuming that most of those people are yes-men, gold diggers, and other opportunists, they are reaping what they have sown.

I wonder if he’ll be radioactive after this or will GOP candidates pay him to come out and campaign in states where he’s a rock star? (and yes I include GA among those states, regardless of how it shakes out here)

is it really a scraper when you have API access?

I would say no; AFAIK scraping still means web-scraping.

GA estimates of uncounted votes keep dropping - there may not be sufficient for Biden to catch up

Republican voters love him, candidates will have no option but to pay fealty.

Have to imagine some erstwhile republican politicians without national profiles will start running as moderate democrats especially in offices where the Dem primary is the ballgame and the dynamic is DSA-aligned/left-liberal vs machine or Chamber-aligned

You kind of can’t do that with a straight face and hold social policy positions palatable to the white supremacist evangelical voters tho so it’s not a path some will take

I mean, they let John Kasich speak in prime time.

I would accept (but not love) a few Jim Jeffords moments right about now

I don’t think any present Senate republicans would switch caucuses especially with Collins being returned by the good people of Maine no worse for wear

If it somehow ends up 50/50, more likely the GOP buys off Manchin than anyone who's stayed in the party through Trump switches.

Re: discussion of ACA, overton window, etc.

Anecdote: we used to live in Tehama County, CA, and husband worked at the welfare office, helping people sign up for the ACA. It was 2016-2017 when he was working there, and people would come in wanting healthcare or with questions about their healthcare and go on and on and on about how Obamacare was going to ruin the country and world. He eventually just started telling them that if they didn't want Obamacare, he couldn't help them, and when they got confused, he would explain what he meant. He made some in-roads that way.

Btw, Tehama County is an absolute shithole with the sole advantage of having some excellent Mexican food that hardly any honkies or tourists zipping by on the interstate know about.

And actually, I just, because the western part of the county is actually very lovely.

It says so much

I’m told that on the phone call this morning, Trump said he assumed people knew that by “stop the count” he didn’t mean he wanted to stop the count. The adviser had to explain to him that actually people figured he meant he wanted to stop the count when he said “stop the count.”

— Olivia Nuzzi (@Olivianuzzi) November 6, 2020

The outstanding Clayton county votes in GA are key. GA might be won either way by hundreds, not thousands, of votes.

I love thinking of how extra miserable it has be for people around trump atm

This whole time, we thought Trump had a strange, excessive confidence in Jared. But what if he only wanted someone to blame for everything? https://t.co/Ks8iCiU26R

— miles klee 🐠 (@MilesKlee) November 6, 2020

Not taking it well

Now that Arizona has turned blue, right-wingers there are starting to call for the resignation of state GOP Chair @kelliwardaz, a longtime conspiracy theorist who took over the party last year with MAGA promises and fever dreams. pic.twitter.com/ziJJSrC0Oq

— Nick Martin (@nickmartin) November 5, 2020

Milo, I don’t think they’ll even need to buy manchin off:

America's new power couple: Joe and Mitch

“the Democrats would say, ‘Joe always wants to make a deal. Joe always wants to make a deal.’ And I’m thinking: ‘Hell yeah, that’s his job.’” Says Sen. Manchin

⁦@AlxThomp⁩ ⁦@marianne_levine⁩ https://t.co/xPl71tEVHW

— Burgess Everett (@burgessev) November 6, 2020

I'm with Trump here... Dracula is on the loose and someone needs to do something NOW

Almost all of the outstanding ballots in Georgia —18,636 — are absentee ballots, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s office told CNN earlier Thursday.

According to his office, here’s where most of the outstanding ballots across Georgia are coming from:

Clayton County: 5,726 (The early ballots lean heavily to Joe Biden.)
Cobb County: 700 (The early ballots lean to Biden. It's an Atlanta suburb that Hillary Clinton won by a small margin in 2016.)
Floyd County: 444 (The early ballots lean heavily to President Trump.)
Forsyth County: 4,713 (The early ballots lean heavily to Trump.)
Gwinnett County: 4,800 (The early ballots lean heavily to Biden.)
Laurens County: 1,797 (The early ballots lean to Trump.)
Taylor County: 456 (The early ballots lean to Trump.)

under 2500 in GA

thanks for that post brownie

I know it's bullshit but if the scraper's remaining-vote and block-average figures are trustworthy, Biden will win GA by ... 700 votes.

anyone have a guess as to when i get my life back

usps has tracking

one caveat to brownie's post, the votes that lean Biden are leaning harder than the ones leaning Trump

lean back
lean back
lean back
lean back

Trump won the latest batch of ballots (roughly 73K votes) from Maricopa by about 14%.

— Taniel (@Taniel) November 6, 2020

538 saying that PA is probably headed to Biden: https://youtu.be/S_uQAt32yhI?t=144

Biden gains ground in Delaware Co., PA mail ballots, Trump's statewide lead falls below 50k.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 6, 2020

The Fox Arizona call was so premature that it verges on malpractice and you have to wonder if they weren’t just like “fuck it”.

i think privately they are sick of him

Fox's vote projections are done by an independent agency with a good reputation, apparently, so I doubt that was it.

dude who made the call was also the guy who defended the pick live on TV in 2012 with Megyn Kelly

it puts them in the precarious position of being the first to call the race for Biden

Ralph Nader complaining on Twitter about NPR not running Trump's speech, can't believe I once voted for that chucklehead

don't wanna oversimplify it but I think it's because they got confused about the way AZ counts the mail ins, they probably figured them to favor Biden heavily

and yeah I'll bet that Fox's call is the reason why they haven't called NV yet, Trump is clearly toast there