GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Arizona's a great hook for a conspiracy theory

yeah that was a mistake, i meant to say "half"

― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Thursday, November 5, 2020

peace. i'm def not itt for zings, just clinging to my belief that (just barely) most of america is (just barely) not entirely beyond redemption.

― Larry Elleison (rogermexico.), Friday, November 6, 2020 12:49 AM (nineteen seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

i appreciate being called on mistakes tbr

why do you say he's favoured in arizona? xxp

lol at The Post turning on him

Like they aren't salivating at the chance to hammer away at Biden for four years.

If you argue that Democrats are "center-left" (or even "left") means that you have to write off all of that as a possibility

Wait. Why are those the rules? I want to change them to something that doesn't require a non-sequitur.

like, "drain the swamp" and conspiracy energy should transfer v easily to opposing an unlimited and unaccountable budget for military rorts, and giving the money back to the people (via services)

assuming you can convince enough voters that substantive and positive changes to everyday existence are honestly achievable through political means, which might be the trickiest trick of all at this point

No socialist platform will work in South Florida. I just signed up to commit myself to how the fucking disastrous Democratic Party in Florida can sell the ACA as an awesome thing to the people most dependent on it.

In other words: the messaging is easy if you work on understanding these discrete communities.

Like they aren't salivating at the chance to hammer away at Biden for four years.

I mean, relatable.

i haven't seen anybody actually opine that AZ is destined for Trump. pretty sure we'd have seen a retraction by either AP or Fox (maybe not both), and it appears that Trump's current pace is enough to win the state, but it's a fairly thin pace that could easily fall off with a new Biden-favoring dumps

Biden's national popular vote lead just surpassed 4 million (2.8%), per @CookPolitical's presidential vote tracker: https://t.co/9dMmSHHdVa?

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 6, 2020

so much fraud

it would be kind of fitting if the one state that actually rejuvenated my hope in Biden winning turned out to not be his after all and he winds up winning the one state that we thought was lost thanks to the Needle

why do you say he's favoured in arizona? xxp

based on https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

Doesn’t AZ still have a significant chunk in Pima County?

peace. i'm def not itt for zings, just clinging to my belief that (just barely) most of america is (just barely) not entirely beyond redemption.

Welcome to being Black

No retraction from Fox on AZ yet — they repeated it a couple of hours ago.

that scraper just show things as they are now, though, but it matters where the votes still remain, as frogbs has implied. he can be put off the pace fairly easily with a few bad results.

xpost yes, Pima and Maricopa have a ton outstanding

somehow i doubt fox has magical az knowledge. i think it's just kinda uncertain at this point. unless are you guys seeing numbers for pima and maricopa?

well, Pima's at 97%, but Maricopa's only at 86%, and Apache's at 91%, and Coconino at 88%.

per NYT

ah

https://youtu.be/TjhNU6vNWcg

Anderson Cooper administering a Voight-Kampff to CNN viewers

Deepfake?

Nah saw it happen the audio is just janked in that clip

Losing fair and square is one thing but in the face of all of this video evidence, lack of transparency, boarding up of windows, fighting to prevent poll watching etc etc... for GOPers to not stand up now shows your true colors.

Will make the 2024 primary process a lot easier. https://t.co/GNC5OkVvf5

— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) November 6, 2020

No, I heard him say it live.

Ok I guess I just have no idea of the kinds of things people say on cable news

If that clip is him making the “obese turtle” “joke” then yes it’s real.

how much more slowly could the remaining results come in?

The PA vote, man, just gets worse for Trump.

the scraper's 'percentage needed to win' is based on an estimate of how many votes remain uncounted. by posting that percentage to the nearest tenth, it makes that look more authoritative than it really is.

how much more slowly could the remaining results come in?

https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5f626e7cde8955b36a7f436f/960x0.jpg

MSNBC starting to act like the writing is on the wall now

Would love for this to be called tonight. Probably won’t based on GA since the margin will be razor thin. But if Biden pulls ahead in PA...

This is big. Pima county, the liberal stronghold of Arizona, just posted 28,344 ballots. Breakdown
Biden: 13,045 (46%)
Trump: 14,484 (51.1%)

Trump now trails Biden by 56,547 in Arizona.

— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 6, 2020

my point exactly re: the scraper - 28k votes just dropped in AZ, 52% for Trump, 47% for Biden (way off the pace he needs), and now the block trend has him below the pace he needs to be at.

that doesn't mean Biden's now 'favored', it just means at the moment, that's how it looks, but that info is fairly toothless without analyzing where the remaining ballots are and how that area typically votes, and whether they're mail or in-person

Re: Fox Az.I can understand a news organization not wanting to issue a correction only to then have to issue a correction to that correction.

If you leave the call in place, then it turns out to be wrong, correct it then.

If you reverse the call, then you may have to reverse that reversal which just looks worse

Yeah I see Trump gaining ground in AZ but I see no reason to think it’s a lost cause for Biden at this point.

the narrative from Silver was that Trump could carry the needed % in counties that he's favored in, but there would be several counties that would be more favorable to Biden that would counteract that. this seems to play into that narrative, but caek can tell me if I'm wrong

and now Biden's lead just went back up 1,300 votes 3 minutes ago

This trickle out stuff is ridiculous, counties here just put out numbers once a day.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmGj27yUcAEuqrH?format=png&name=900x900

I have no idea what’s going to happen in Arizona but my money would be on Biden based on what I’ve read.

It is fun to see the numbers change on the scraper, but as long as Trump's lawsuits keep failing dismally to make any kind of a ripple in the process I'll be content to let the process wind slowly to its conclusion and see what it spits out when the votes are all in.

trump only up by 63k in pa with more philly ballots to come

just fyi to you guys, the scraper is using the NYT/Upshot API*. You can easily follow along on the NYT election page.

*is it really a scraper when you have API access? Back in my days, scraping meant you had to employ some creative uh data collection services.

i want a fast result as I want to speed up America wiping its collective ass with Trump's face

lead in pa below 60k now

http://a-static.besthdwallpaper.com/zootopia-blykste-slothmore-tapetai-2560x2048-11897_33.jpg

http://www.a-static.besthdwallpaper.com/zootopia-blykste-slothmore-tapetai-2560x2048-11897_33.jpg

ok