GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Dem centrism worked with Clinton and Obama, two incredibly gifted politicians

Depends on what you mean by worked. For them personally, absolutely. But they cost a lot of other centrist Democrats their jobs and made it impossible for centrist Democrats to govern because of those losses.

Oh wait sorry Arizona. Right.

i agree, and i also think we're not going to have the chance to find out for a few years because he's going to try to stay involved, which is in many ways worse news for the GOP than the fact they've lost their (unique, unrepeatable) leader.

Yes, once the Tump is out of power, I'm like "oh by all means, GOP, hitch your entire strategy on the personality quirks of this one disgraced, sad, tired, and flawed individual."

So Trump will not concede, right?

Why would someone who has won an election concede?

He wins by one vote with Nevada and Arizona. Sorry I’m trying to delete it.

Trump freaking out about Fox calling PA suggests he knows it’s happening tonight

Oh and for sleeve

gotta admit I am really enjoying the slow motion steamroller aspect of all this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NmO4HFSr1g

Dem centrism worked with Clinton and Obama, two incredibly gifted politicians
Depends on what you mean by worked. For them personally, absolutely. But they cost a lot of other centrist Democrats their jobs and made it impossible for centrist Democrats to govern because of those losses.

― Donald Trump Also Sucks, Of Course (milo z), Thursday, November 5, 2020 1:58 PM (forty-eight seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

milo OTM. It also didn't work for a lot of the US populace.

He wins by one vote with Nevada and Arizona. Sorry I’m trying to delete it.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Thursday, November 5, 2020 9:59 PM (thirty-eight seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah but again - doesn't look good in arizona. so he needs pa. which he's currently behind in. quite a bit! but it looks good.. in the future.. the next few hours.. hopefully *bites nails*

Here's a county-level map of swing in vote margin* toward Biden (blue) or Trump (red) versus the results of the 2016 election. The story is: urban-rural polarization + Dem suburban gains + GOP Latino gains

*Numbers are projected for counties that aren't fully reporting results pic.twitter.com/r9G0bo5NO6

— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) November 5, 2020

anyone got a handy link to governor & other state-level races? seems weird that I haven't heard a single thing about governors

yeah but again - doesn't look good in arizona. so he needs pa. which he's currently behind in. quite a bit! but it looks good.. in the future.. the next few hours.. hopefully *bites nails*

Why is everyone doubting Arizona all of a sudden? Biden still ahead there by about the same he has been all day, no?

A map for alfred

In awe of my colleagues who stayed up all night to pull off this analysis of results in battleground states. Here's one map showing precinct-level results in Miami-Dade County: https://t.co/Rw0nFTdN1w pic.twitter.com/PCVfCpHmZK

— Lauren Leatherby (@LaurenLeatherby) November 5, 2020

So I get the psychological impact of the early Fox call on Arizona, but they do realize that didn't change any actual votes, right?

rob, most Gov elections will take place in 2022. Here are some from now: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-governor.html

Why is everyone doubting Arizona all of a sudden? Biden still ahead there by about the same he has been all day, no?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmFbtBqWMAAo45S?format=jpg&name=large

A map for alfred

I saw that earlier -- but once to prevent despair.

True, this. Spoke on Tuesday night, quiet otherwise.

You know who has been AWFULLY quiet the last day-plus? Mike Pence.

— Sam Stein (@samstein) November 5, 2020

You know who has been AWFUL the last four years? Mike Pence.

ah, thanks table! I can see why no one was talking about those races now lol

I’ve always assumed Pence gets put into power-saving mode between appearances

Ppl are assuming the late mail in AZ ballots will skew heavily republican. But there are also election day dropoffs. Imo any prediction one way or the other for AZ now is to be ignored.

Meanwhile in Georgia

GA - 6,313 votes added to the count. Biden takes 75%. About 39,000 votes remaining, Biden needs about 62% of those votes to erase Trump's 9,525 vote lead.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 5, 2020

So if Georgia is called, they can call Nevada and then... that’s it bar seeing how the remaining states shake out?

Pretty wild how close multiple states are

so if GA gets called for Biden, he's at...269. ffs, has anyone ever suggested not having the electoral college?

Ppl are assuming the late mail in AZ ballots will skew heavily republican. But there are also election day dropoffs. Imo any prediction one way or the other for AZ now is to be ignored.

― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Thursday, November 5, 2020 10:07 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

gotcha.

thanks for that graph tracer

Hahah

Oh man. pic.twitter.com/fsJGA7RcTO

— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) November 5, 2020

well if anyone knows which way the gop winds are blowing it's nikki haley

Xxxpost -

I was strictly talking Presidential, it wasn't good for the party, or the country!

And it wasn't really a solid Presidential strategy unless you had one of two of the most charismatic politicians of the past 50 years

Ermagertz!

what possibly could have happened here ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

🚨BREAKING: New USPS data appears to show a failure to deliver mail ballots from voters across the country on Election Day. U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan will hold a noon hearing over USPS' non-compliance with his order yesterday to rush deliver all remaining mail ballots pic.twitter.com/Zc8J5PEmPf

— John Kruzel (@johnkruzel) November 4, 2020

oh i forget that was just yesterday so no biggie

Nate Cohn essentially calling Georgia for Biden, if in recount territory. Which, sure.

apparently another lawsuit was just filed, to halt the count in Montgomery County PA over 600 ballots that apparently didn't have signature, address, and/or date on the outer envelope

Oh 600 votes how monumental

I mean, don't joke!

Georgia going blue would be so awesome!

it wasn't good for the party, or the country!

I don't know. On some universal scale of did Clinton and Obama do more good than bad, that's a complicated thing to measure. But politically we don't have a universal scale, we have a binary choice. Were Clinton and Obama better for the party and the country than Bush/Dole/McCain/Romney would have been? (Along with the whole executive branch apparatus that would have come with them?)

I know people hate lesser-of-evils arguments, but at the same time we live in a country where nearly half the population just voted for Donald Trump, so, I mean ... we don't just get what we want.

Let me give a concrete example. I worked in government for a medium-sized city, for a liberal mayor, in a very red state. The first four years I was there, Obama was president. The last two years, Trump was president. It's hard for me to encapsulate what a seismic shift that was for us. In the Obama years, we had a president who liked cities, had an actual urban agenda, had a climate agenda, and we basically felt like had our back on policy and budget issues. Multiple people in our administration had direct, first-name contacts with people in the White House. I can't tell you what a difference that made for us in a state where we were perpetually under siege from our own state Legislature, who actively opposed anything we tried to do for LGBTQ rights, affordable housing, climate issues, etc. When Trump got elected, that all stopped immediately. We had no relations with the White House, and all we heard about was what rotten hellholes cities were. Programs we relied on were threatened with elimination every year, and some of them were actually reduced. And we suddenly felt very alone and isolated in our blue bubble. And I'm sure every city government in the country felt the same, especially those in red states.

So when you talk about things being "better" or not, I mean, they were way better, in both tangible and moral-support ways, under Obama.

Now here’s some real joy

Lou Dobbs berates Ric Grenell for not filing enough legal motions pic.twitter.com/A4nVCsxrcY

— Jason Campbell (@JasonSCampbell) November 5, 2020

Things got significantly more tense pic.twitter.com/uJurHgxinW

— Jason Campbell (@JasonSCampbell) November 5, 2020

in other news, Kanye apparently did best in TN with >10K write-ins

Is he saying the needle is sentient

Basically the whole time, IMO. Nailed Florida. Nailed NC, even as folks thought Biden was doing great. Initially got the wrong impression on GA, but eventually figured out Biden was favored long before it was obvioushttps://t.co/uDln8tb9tA

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 5, 2020

in other news, Kanye apparently did best in TN with >10K write-ins

We gotta think more dialectically. I thought Clinton did more domestic damage than Obama...but he, not George H.W. Bush, replaced Byron White and and Harry Blackmun.

Making Taylor Swift his running mate was a genius move

_it wasn't good for the party, or the country!_

I don't know. On some universal scale of did Clinton and Obama do more good than bad, that's a complicated thing to measure. But politically we don't have a universal scale, we have a binary choice. Were Clinton and Obama better for the party and the country than Bush/Dole/McCain/Romney would have been? (Along with the whole executive branch apparatus that would have come with them?)

I know people hate lesser-of-evils arguments, but at the same time we live in a country where nearly half the population just voted for Donald Trump, so, I mean ... we don't just get what we want.

Let me give a concrete example. I worked in government for a medium-sized city, for a liberal mayor, in a very red state. The first four years I was there, Obama was president. The last two years, Trump was president. It's hard for me to encapsulate what a seismic shift that was for us. In the Obama years, we had a president who liked cities, had an actual urban agenda, had a climate agenda, and we basically felt like had our back on policy and budget issues. Multiple people in our administration had direct, first-name contacts with people in the White House. I can't tell you what a difference that made for us in a state where we were perpetually under siege from our own state Legislature, who actively opposed anything we tried to do for LGBTQ rights, affordable housing, climate issues, etc. When Trump got elected, that all stopped immediately. We had no relations with the White House, and all we heard about was what rotten hellholes cities were. Programs we relied on were threatened with elimination every year, and some of them were actually reduced. And we suddenly felt very alone and isolated in our blue bubble. And I'm sure every city government in the country felt the same, especially those in red states.

So when you talk about things being "better" or not, I mean, they were _way_ better, in both tangible and moral-support ways, under Obama.

lol there are angry Trumpers on Twitter trying to gotcha with Nate Silver saying we should call Nevada by saying COUNT THE VOTES

like they actually thing network 'calls' are official state vote certifications

How much are game-worn "Team Trump" fleeces gonna go for ten years from now